Northern Mich Reopening This Weekend!
As long as they arent nursing home patients or prisoners, it will be ok. See the NY studies and you will finally realize what is going on. It's not going to spread casually.
Yep -- but you know that's going to turn into 90 days as there will be a huge spike in about a month and then we'll do what needs to be done -- a true quarantine with massive testing of essential workers (see 1918 for reference).
Seems reasonable, especially if they don't appear to be at risk of overwhelming their hospital systems. Will be interesting to see how things continue to progress.
Any hotels open?
I don't think they ever closed. I could be wrong. Haven't been traveling much. I've been seeing ads for golf resorts offering great deals for weekend rounds.
I will definitely be sitting outdoors at all bars and restaurants.
You should be more worried about the people cooking/handling whatever you’re consuming.
Eating the virus kills the virus at least. But yes, handling mugs and plates and probably other things could pass it from server/cook to you.
No, it doesn't.
EDIT: Current evidence (1) shows that while oral ingestion and subsequent infection of the GI tract is much less common than respiration, it does happen and sometimes the GI symptoms (diarrhea, etc.) precedes the more common presentation of fever/chills/cough. Once the viral particles survive the stomach they have a target rich environment in the GI.
ACE-2 receptor is 100x more dense in GI epithelium than in the respiratory tract (2), so it's shooting fish in a (stinky, Shawshank Redemption type) barrel for the virus once it makes it through.
Sources:
(2) ACE2 angiotensin I converting enzyme 2 [Homo sapiens (human)]. Gene ID: 59272. (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/gene/59272).
Are there examples of people getting the virus from take-out/dining?
The examples I've seen all had to do with air flow. I would imagine the greatest danger is sitting inside at close quarters with potentially infected individuals and having the AC blast me.
Much more risk (like orders of magnitude) that you'll get it off your hands while you're eating than actually from the food, especially if it's something fully cooked.
This is a fair summary of the food risks (upshot: the risks are very low so far):
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/08/822903487/how-safe-is-it-to-eat-take-out
There is definitely a route of infection that goes oral->stomach->GI-->fecal (and it takes longer to clear the virus from the GI than the lungs, evidently) but it's much less common than respiratory so, yeah, I'd just take that food to go or sit outside. I've been doing a ton of takeout just to support the local mom and pops.
Just curious, now that I know you’re the resident expert here from your neck sharpies, what do you think about the Moderna news? Is that at all compelling to you, or was that the expected result and there is still a long way to go?
I'm pretty excited about Moderna's platform technology and they're also an interesting company that would be right at home here in Silicon Valley, for better and for worse (interesting but long article on the company HERE).
First, I should note that piecing together their technical details is a little bit of a beast with this company because they're reluctant to publish anywhere but in the patent literature, which is great for protecting IP but trying to understand the technology after a few lawyers have earned fees on the patent description is like trying to figure out what fish that used to be when the shark is done lunching on it. They are more like Apple than Google... they don't like showing the cards.
That said, if Moderna's mRNA approach works, it could change a lot more than COVID-19 vaccine research. Caveat: they've been at it for different targets for almost a decade without a single FDA approved therapy or vaccine yet. But the mRNA approach makes a lot of sense if you can execute it. And at least in theory, it should have fewer potential side effects than the Oxford vaccine, which is the other prime candidate. That one uses an adenovirus vector carrying the SARS-COV-2 spikes (same thing the Moderna mRNA is coding). Adenovirus vectors send shivers down the spines of people like me who were in viral gene therapy in 1998 when a healthy UPenn trial volunteer named Jessie Gelsinger died of a massive immune reaction to one. All gene therapy trials in the US were shut down for years as a result. Tech has improved dramatically since then but it's hard to forget.
professor sopwith, are we ever going to get chapters 3 and 4 to your HOF virus tome?
XM-- I wrote 80% of Part III two weeks ago but then every day some bozo publishes a relevant new research paper that makes me go back and reconsider things. If everyone would just STOP PUBLISHING for a minute I'm sure I'd finish, post, and become obsolete in 12 hours. Or maybe if I ignored my actual job for a few days. Either/or.
the life of an academic. publishing requirements. teaching. coeds. where's the time?
hey y'all. please wash your hands before you leave the house and immediately upon return. that's the best medicine out there.
also a mask
Please, people, wear masks. It's so easy, you can buy cloth ones for like 5 bucks, and it's huge in preventing the spread of the virus.
If you want things to reopen, you need to wear a mask. If you're not wearing a mask your putting yourself and all those you come in contact with at greater risk.
Indoors right?
Surgeon General disagrees
World Health Organization still disagrees. "the wide use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not supported by current evidence and carries uncertainties and critical risks."
worried about people from the Detroit suburbs who are asymptomatic carriers going up and spreading to the locals up north where the hospital system is fewer and further in between.
it's a tough balance between wanting the tourism revenue and keeping your population safe
Yeah, I do wonder how this will work out. Same as in my state of NY. If the rural, tourist-y areas of the state open up in time for summer, a lot of folks from the population centers are going to want to go there. Is this going to result in spikes in areas relying on tourism? I have to imagine there will be some in some spots. Don't know what else you do though. We can't all sit in our homes for 2 years.
Yep... there are only 58 ICU beds in the entire UP.
It's funny -- the specs as conveyed in that Tweet almost suggest that they shouldn't be open unless they can have the place at least half-packed. :)
Hopefully this will all go well. The odds are favorable for many people and there's been plenty of communication on the risks by now.
Haha -- it means, if you are open, you can only be at 50 percent of the posted capacity at any time.But, I agree; not the best usage.
i read it the same way..."nope, we can't open until we get seven MORE people to get to 50%!" wait, what?
Well, the Gov is a Sparty grad. Who knows if a fellow alum wrote that.
Well, now it all makes sense!
PSA: Reminder that you don't have to run out and rub yourself against as many strangers as you can find just because shit is reopening.
What you just described is just wrong in general, pandemic or not.
Welp. So much for going to Rick's.
Too bad, Rick’s is my go to place to drop a Duce when I’m on South U.
*Edit, I guess everyone here is too young to remember that the bathrooms at Rick’s used to not have stalls.
Assuming people outside those regions (looking at you metro Detroit) are not supposed to venture into these regions that are opening back up until the region they are in opens back up, right? I can't imagine the thought process here is to invite tourists into areas that haven't been impacted.....
There is no way they could enforce that. County officials cannot arrest somebody for going up north to have dinner, it is not as though there are checkpoints throughout the State. It could result in increased infection for up north regions, yes, and in that way it does not make sense, but very little about what she has done in this has made sense to be honest.
The political pressure and fallout on Whitmer is becoming too much for her to continue with her current posture. The biggest driver of this particular move at this time is that the Stay at Home order currently in place was passed pursuant to a statute that does not support it as applied to the entire state, and she is kind of trying to "amend it" quickly in the hope that the Court will not strike it down.
However, it was the emergency declaration itself, not the Stay at Home order specifically, that likely violated Michigan law so I don't think this will help her much with that. I think it is virtually certain that the Michigan Supreme Court will likely vacate the emergency declaration and corresponding stay at home order, and she is kind of getting out in front of it as a "victory" instead of a loss when they do. Given how quickly this came about and Whitmer's change in tone, it is possible that the Court of Claims is going to strike it down this week.
This is a good development though. This is real talk. This is the kind of press conference that needed to start several weeks ago.
(Edit - Oh my god she is getting killed by the questions, not even an answer to whether child-care is available for wait staff or why dining in is allowed now in "phase 4" when that is not even allowed until phase 5. This press conference is kind of panicky. I think the emergency declaration is going to be vacated soon).
I don't disagree with you, but travelling between homes was already restricted as part of the original order. Has that changed if the "origin" home is in a zone that is still under stay home?
Yes, she lifted that a while ago. She lifted that when she allowed grass seed to be sold again.
and as an FYI, i watched some of the arguments live streamed in that Legislature v. Gov case on friday. if the judge's questions are any indication, she was going to strike whitmer's EO's down. we'll see, but she kept asking whitmer's lawyer about whether with whitmer's interpretation of the law there would ever be a circumstance that she (the Gov) couldn't simply declare emergencies and make laws.
the flipside/legislature argument can be summarized in what was a pretty clever analogy, that of your neighbor's house catching fire. he analogized that the Gov was like the next door neighbor running over with a garden hose doing her best until the fire department (read: the legislature) could get to the house and get to work. once the fire trucks show up, the Gov would stand down.
again, reasonable (and unreasonable) minds differ on the topic. i'll be curious about the outcome but it might well be accurate that the Gov saw the writing on the wall and instead of getting run out of town, wanted to be the band leader....
I watched it to. Frankly, it did look to me like Judge Stephens liked Whitmer's arguments. I kind of chucked when she essentially got him to acknowledge that based on his argument a Gov could declare a State of Emergency for the entire duration of his or her term without legislative approval and without an actual emergency.
Why wouldn't they make an argument that 1) there is a national state of emergency which could easily be argued is enough for a state to declare but they could in this case also say 2) the state is experiencing the national emergency sufficiently on a local level so as to require specific orders relating to state needs.
The latter is obviously a bit of a grey area but certainly Michigan would qualify by any reasonable measures.
We should definitely not want a Governor to be able to declare a state of emergency for no reason but there are some pretty easy baseline conditions under which a declaration shouldn't be difficult to justify (this being one of them).
Because that is not at all what the statute is for. It isn’t what she is using it for either but her argument that the statute applied in the way she is using it is slightly less preposterous then your argument set forth above. I’m not saying that as a slight toward you but the statute she is using to continue the state of emergency just does not apply and I think she knows that now.
I'm not fully aware of what statute you're referring to or what they're using but what I'm saying is that it seems like a no brainer based on the Emergency Powers of Governor Act of 1945 which states:
(1) During times of great public crisis, disaster, rioting, catastrophe, or similar public emergency within the state, or reasonable apprehension of immediate danger of a public emergency of that kind, when public safety is imperiled, either upon application of the mayor of a city, sheriff of a county, or the commissioner of the Michigan state police or upon his or her own volition, the governor may proclaim a state of emergency and designate the area involved. After making the proclamation or declaration, the governor may promulgate reasonable orders, rules, and regulations as he or she considers necessary to protect life and property or to bring the emergency situation within the affected area under control.
Maybe they haven't invoked the powers afforded her under this act or maybe this act has been interpreted differently based on subsequent court cases and maybe that's what you're saying, but what I'm saying is that based on this act, there shouldn't even be a question that she has the authority to broadly do what she's done.
Arguing that there is "reasonable apprehension of immediate danger" seems easy based on the conditions I mentioned above (national state of emergency, significant local impact of said emergency).
The last bolded point is certainly up for debate. One could argue some of the things they've done are not reasonable, but the declaration of the state of emergency seems as cut and dried as possible, again, assuming they're invoking these powers. If they're not, that's my whole point above. It seems like they should be invoking powers under this act.
There most certainly could be situations where a quick decision must be made and a state's governor must act. Closing a state down for a month at a time when there is an opportunity to have the legislature assemble and participate in the decision making process would not seem to fall into that category.
Gov still is around 75% approval, so i don’t see her being very threatened by Astro-turfed, Confederate flag waiving psychos. We are hitting the benchmarks for reopening where we are testing a lot and are at 10% positive, which is the benchmark for the next phase.
No we don't live in a totalitarian state where they can check your papers every time you enter a town. What happened to the America I love? It's infected with lunacy.
So those who have cabins and homes up north are free to go up and visit. Seems like Michigan is opening up more so than KS, which only has 8,000 total cases and many counties have had no known cases of COVID. We went to phase 1 on May 4 but most things are closed down. Our governor would not go to phase 2 Today and we are now stuck in this phase 1.5 for two weeks, where most dine in restaurants are still closed. The only good news is that gyms and fitness centers have opened Today.