turtleboy

October 27th, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^

FSU is gifted a 1st down. Their next 4 plays? Unforced fumble, unforced drop, false start, interception. I mean he threw it directly to the defender. What a total shit show.

Joined: 04/22/2011

MGoPoints: 35129

smwilliams

October 27th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^

On the MSU broadcast, the announce team gave their playoff picks. Mark Jones has Texas and UCF ahead of Michigan. 

Yes, Texas who lost to a MD team that Michigan crushed. And UCF who has played zero teams with a winning record.

Joined: 08/20/2010

MGoPoints: 9917

bronxblue

October 27th, 2018 at 3:03 PM ^

If Texas goes undefeated for the rest of the year and wins the Big 12, fine, make an argument there.  It's a weak one, but it's at least something you can defend, as an 11-1 Texas team with a first-game loss is probably pretty good.

But this UCF team isn't as good as last year's one (they are worse offensively, for one thing, and their defensive rankings seem a bit inflated by the quality of their opposition), and on a neutral field Michigan would be a 7-10 point favorite, if not more.  

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 172085

LKLIII

October 27th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

What’s our rooting interest this weekend? Is it generally root for outcomes that increase our strength of schedule plus whatever outcomes boost our preferred team becoming Big Ten West champs?

If so, what would those outcomes be specifically?

Are there any squads we want to lose most definitely (like Georgia or Florida, etc) to minimize the odds that IF we run the table, we won’t get shut out of the CFP at the #5 slot?

Joined: 11/06/2013

MGoPoints: 8927

Muttley

October 27th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

If we run the table and sit at 12-1 along with an 11-1 non-conference champ Bama, we should loudly remind the committee of 2014.

That year, the SEC West was proclaimed to be an NFL-lite division, with Bama, Ole Miss, Miss St, Auburn, and LSU hovering in the Top 5-10 midseason until they started knocking each other off.

What happened to the top 5 2014 SEC West teams in their bowls?  

They all lost.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Southeastern_Conference_football_season#Bowl_games

An honest answer about the ability to compare conference strengths is "we're not sure".  Enough of this talk about "We just want the four best teams" as if there's a non-ambiguous way to determine that.  I get placing a 2017 one-loss-to-Auburn Bama in along with a one-loss-to-and-one-win-over-Auburn Georgia when Bama and Georgia hadn't played each other and Ohio State had two losses.

Is the 2018 B1G champ better than the SEC champ?  We don't know.  Is the 2nd best SEC team better than the SEC champ?  We'll very likely have an objective on-the-field measurement of that answer.  The intra-SEC competition shouldn't have to be re-litigated in the CFP.  If nothing else, it's not fair to the SEC champ if they've conquered the 2nd best team.

 

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73246

You Only Live Twice

October 27th, 2018 at 1:32 PM ^

So at this point in time, with the debate being whether Michigan or LSU looks better... does a Sparty win over Purdue help our resume?

Lombardi sure looks better against Purdue today.

Joined: 09/14/2013

MGoPoints: 9615

LKLIII

October 27th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^

Although Wisconsin not playing with Hornibrook and the backup is making his first career start.

 

But does anybody who matters cares?

How granular do strength of schedule statistics get? Or CFP members for that matter? Do they factor in key injuries at all when evaluating the relative strength is CFP contenders? Let alone taking the extra step to see whether key CFP contender OPPONENTS had critical players injured at the time the CFP contender played them or after (thereby creating an artificially poor SOS metric compared to when the CFP contender actually played the team at full strength?

Hypothetical—

Team X has a player Y that is utterly dominant and accounts for a huge % of the team’s offensive yardage, but then a big drop off at that spot in the 2nd string. Like an exaggerated version of PSU and McSorley. 

Then Player Y gets injured for a single game prior to the bye week & returns 100% after the bye. Team X loses the game where Player Y is out.

Does the team that beats Team X during that single game get an absurd bump in their “quality win” or SOS metrics even though there should be a massive asterisk next to their win?

Lets say Team X gets two losses on the season. The one with the Player Y injury and another nail biter away night game against the #1 team in the country. Does the CFP basically disregard or at least discount that second loss because they know that Player Y was unavailable but now he is for the rest of the season & the playoffs?

Joined: 11/06/2013

MGoPoints: 8927

LKLIII

October 27th, 2018 at 2:44 PM ^

I’m concerned about a scenario where ND wins out and Alabama loses to LSU in a squeaker. 

ND has the head to head against us and is undefeated. OTOH they don’t have a conference championship line we would if we won out. 

Alabama is Alabama Ave has the “eye” test and loses a hypothetical squeaker agains a 1 loss SEC champ. OTOH they’re in a conference where championships are SUPPOSED to mean something, but we all saw what happened last year.

I’m basically paranoid about a LSU/Clemson/Alabama/ND playoff  where we narrowly get shut out.

 

 

 

Joined: 11/06/2013

MGoPoints: 8927

Muttley

October 27th, 2018 at 2:52 PM ^

Would that be fair to LSU after they'd already vanquished Bama?

Why should they have to beat them again?

Last year was odd in that Bama lost to Auburn while Georgia both lost to and beat Auburn.  And they hadn't played each other.

The luck of the path to the SEC championship caused a situation in which Georgia hadn't eliminated Bama.  And also, Ohio State had two losses.

Joined: 07/07/2009

MGoPoints: -73246

stephenrjking

October 27th, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^

What's maddening about Wisconsin wilting like this is that the committee looks at your high-profile wins. Our opponent win % may not change on aggregate, but Northwestern is not a high-profile win; Wisconsin could be, if they didn't choke this away. 

OTOH Wisconsin wilting after all the the hype they got in the offseason isn't unpleasant. And it looks like if we get to the title game there will be another team to play. 

Joined: 03/15/2012

MGoPoints: 20144031