No impact from allegations on Michigan winning the CFP / JJ winning the Heisman
My first thought about hearing the new Connor Stallions allegations is that Vegas will be the first place you will see whether there is a threat of the NCAA doing something "in season" and whether the broader CFB community will be taking this seriously.
Given that there are tens of millions of USD at stake and the folks in charge of the top betting sites are highly connected to the conferences, networks and schools, this is as good of a barometer as you will find out there.
Here are three of the most obvious lines (as at 5:09 EDT):
1. Michigan +225 to win the Championship (#1 in the country)
2. Michigan -115 to with the B1G, obviously #1 in the conference
3. JJ is +240 to with the Heisman, actually improved slightly from +250 yesterday
So far, Vegas doesn't care about this - nor do they think that Michigan was gaining much, if any, competitive advantage from whatever Stallions was doing. I would suggest continuing to track this.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^
Damn - error on my Subject Header. It should say:
"No impact on betting lines on Michigan winning the CFP / JJ winning the Heisman from the new allegations."
It would be great if the mods could fix that for me.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Here is the most obvious line that would move. As noted, OSU is at +175 to win the B1G.
OSU is -675 at Wisconsin on Saturday - their B1G Championship Line would be about the same if Michigan were to be out given that OSU would have basically clinched the East by beating PSU on Saturday.
The B1G Championship Game would be OSU vs. Wisconsin or Iowa or someone even worse so the odds would probably be at -600.
Assuming you believe in capitalism, if people believed this was a big deal (or that Michigan was actually getting an advantage from the sign decoding), money should be pouring in by the minute on OSU to win the B1G. This would immediately force Vegas to move the line or risk catastrophic losses.
Of course, new information / disclosures could change all of this but as of right now, this is still a nothing burger to the general public. Either way, I would just keep my eye on these lines. It is the best way to track the REAL impact vs. trolling / media bullshit.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:49 PM ^
This
Vegas doesn’t lose money by people still betting Michigan if Michigan has game results forfeited. It’s the OSU numbers to watch. Vegas could just as well be goating the public into paying more money on Michigan than already has been.
October 23rd, 2023 at 8:33 PM ^
*goading
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Good points. At first I was going to say wouldn't they just void all the bets if Michigan was banned from the postseason or something but that's probably not how Vegas works, and they would take a bath paying out all the bets for the lower odd team that does win the title.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
Vegas always knows
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:52 PM ^
Vegas has been and always will be "in the ass-kicking business, and business is booming."
This is a good indication that things are business as usual.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
who exactly is "Vegas"? The general public? I never know what to think of
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:09 PM ^
Vegas are the people kicking the asses of the general public.
October 23rd, 2023 at 8:35 PM ^
… and they know who they are.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:17 PM ^
sucks the last couple of years will be tainted :(
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
Not to me because I went to both BIG10 championship games! You cannot delete those experiences!!!
GO BLUE
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^
Speak for yourself. Tainted my balls
October 23rd, 2023 at 8:03 PM ^
Your mother tainted my balls.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:23 PM ^
They will only be tainted if you buy into this bullshit. Yeah, they can do whatever to Michigan now. They might, they might not. But we didn’t have the these years because of Connor Stalions. If anything, we get to laugh at the people who needed this to save face. Fuck ‘em. Beat Ohio.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
Auburn and Florida State and [fill in he blank] still celebrate their National Championships.
When Charles Barkley heard that Auburn paid for Cam Newton to go there he said: "We gave Cam Newton $200,000 to come to Auburn. Boy, that was a good investment."
And now it's all legal anyway.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:31 PM ^
You are a taint
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:45 PM ^
Nobody cares. Look around. Coaches were "allegedly" cheating but nobody cared when they won. Remember those years when we wanted championship and did not care about being super legit?
Win a few and nobody will care. Saban, Dabo and Meyer are not saints. Just saying. Harbaugh did not do this directly. At least we have that going for us.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:20 PM ^
Alt POV: People cared. I cared. Lots of people have lamented the disgusting role of money in making football so unequal. We don't have to embrace that to defend Michigan. What we're accused of so far is nothing like buying players year in and year out when other schools couldn't or didn't. No one has shown Michigan reaped a single advantage from this kid going to games. We can do nuance here.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Nothing is "tainted" until proven. Any claims to the contrary are just propagating the troll narrative.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:18 PM ^
I don't think that means much. If U-M were declared "ineligible for the CFP or B1G title" at some point in the next several weeks (not predicting that, just saying if), I'm sure all bets to date on U-M and everyone else just become "get your $$$ back, bet is off."
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^
Yes, but all of the rest of the odds would change around them. If you believe what you just wrote, you should be putting all your money right now onto Ohio State at +175.
Ohio State would be -600 for the B1G right now if Vegas believed Michigan was ineligible.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
I can't say I've explicitly read all the "rules and regulations" when I make sports bets. So take it with that caveat.
But your rationale is why I also said "everyone else." OSU wins the B1G, Georgia wins the CFP, et cetera - those bets would likely be voided too.
A couple regulations I do know:
- Say Michigan's over/under on regular-season wins was 10.5. But the Maryland game had to be cancelled for some reason, and U-M finished 11-0. People betting the over would NOT collect. They do get their $$$ back. Because the bet requires Michigan play all their scheduled regular season games, despite them going over 10.5 regardless.
- Same thing with a football game with an over/under of 50, that has a 43-10 score and then a huge thunderstorm hits with 6:00 left. Teams agree to just call the game, team A wins 43-10. People betting the over do not win. Again, they get their $$$ back. The game is official per NCAA rules, but the game needs to go 55+ minutes to count for over/under bets.
The rules almost always are in favor of the House.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
As a follow-up to my own post, from BetMGM's web-site:
"4. All future wagers are action regardless of team name changes or relocation, suspension, sanctions, and/or exclusions to participate."
https://help.co.betmgm.com/en/sports-help/sports-house-rules/all-futures-wager-types-and-rules
So I was wrong - a Michigan B1G/CFP bet is action regardless. Ditto with an Ohio State bet.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^
The Michigan bets would definitely get voided but you are saying that every bet made for the Heisman, CFP playoffs / championship and B1G conference winner would get voided across the board.
No chance - they didn't even do that for COVID. That doesn't make any sense.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
My post preceded yours by a minute, but per BetMGM site, Michigan future bets are action regardless. Ditto for everyone else.
Again, I'm not prediciting anything --- but from a risk management POV maybe the books take B1G/CFP futures off the board at some point. Folks would see "value" in other teams' futures.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:48 PM ^
It literally cannot happen. There isn't enough time. Even if they served Michigan with a Notice of Allegations tomorrow, Michigan has until Jan 23 to file a response. It can't have any impact on whether we go to the playoffs, or not. The NCAA doesn't even administer the playoffs, anyhow.
So please stop. I'm sure you won't, though, you usually like to rake the muck around.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
Hi there.
Our COVID discussions from 3 years ago - and how I disagreed with you. Is that the "muck" you refer to?
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:04 PM ^
Holy shit dude... no. I mean, if I were compiling a list, that whole thing would be on there. But not what I'm referring to. Way to sidestep the entirety of my comment, though. Gold star for you.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
Your first paragraph wasn't anything I felt I needed to respond to. I have never predicted U-M is going to be declared ineligible for the B1G title or CFP. I explicitly said that in the post you responded to.
Your second paragraph --- well, if you're going to brand me as a "muckraker", well, yes, I'm curious as to what "muck" I am raking (in your opinion).
It is now your turn to reply.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:17 PM ^
You are exhausting, I had forgotten just how exhausting, but yeah. This will be my last response here, I'm not playing your stupid game, beyond this;
I don't think that means much. If U-M were declared "ineligible for the CFP or B1G title" at some point in the next several weeks (not predicting that, just saying if), I'm sure all bets to date on U-M and everyone else just become "get your $$$ back, bet is off."
Those were your words, above. I clarified for you (you're welcome), that it is flatly not possible. So you don't need to "what if" this scenario. Pretty simple, but here you are, doing what you do, diverting the conversation away from the fact that you were shown to be wrong.
Now here is where you reply with more inanity, which I will duly ignore.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:49 PM ^
Cool - you don't have to respond to my response. But if you do at least read it, maybe you'll decide to go after Sammy below with equal vigor: he's predicting U-M will self-declare themselves ineligible from B1G title and CFP contention! (which, one must admit, is an avenue that makes it not "flatly not possible.")
Anyway, it is what it is. You label me a "muckraker", but your real beef is from 3 years ago. Fair enough. I get it.
October 23rd, 2023 at 10:25 PM ^
Definitely an example of sea-lioning here by NitFan.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:19 PM ^
+1 Insightful
Prediction markets 😎
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
Vegas is reviewing this. It’s to early considering ESPN just dropped the story and we have a bye. Check this thread in a week.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:25 PM ^
LOL that you think ESPN had this news before Vegas
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:40 PM ^
LOL that you think this shit is regular. We go to bed on Wend and this shit is not even mentioned. We wake up on Thursday and like 5 media outlets have full long form reporting in this? This is not regular. We are in the crosshairs.
Michigan is going to kick the ass of everybody they play, because they are a great football team. If it matters to you whether those wins have an asterisk in the eyes of many this probably isn’t your show.
Personally I don’t care because our opponents coaches are apparently some really whiny bitches and that’s kind of funny.
October 23rd, 2023 at 9:04 PM ^
Vegas most certainly knew after the news was broke today. Guaranteed that this new development will take time to trickle down, but it will for sure.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:42 PM ^
Dude - Vegas would have moved immediately if they thought there was a chance of Michigan getting booted mid-season. Do you have any idea how much money is at stake?
The OSU odds to win the B1G are at +175, I would say there is a 95% chance of them winning the B1G if Michigan was disqualified. They would be at -600.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:22 PM ^
As soon as Penix threw his first pick, I started refreshing Heisman lines to enjoy my first glimpse of JJ as a favorite.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^
Am I the only one who remembers that NCAA "investigations" take a long fucking time?
This BS won't be sorted out until 2024 at the earliest.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:50 PM ^
There is an outlier here which I think changes that analysis. Where is ESPN getting this information? And if ESPN can report it, why can Michigan not counter program with their own statements?
ESPN is the NCAA spokesman at this point. Somebody wants this information out quickly.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:08 PM ^
The NCAA sucks ass in countless ways, but them being able to leak the info of their investigations to reporters for clicks and to control the narrative is complete bullshit. That and the fact that the school isn't allowed to do the same is even bullshittier.
This is another reason why I would never give them anything other than "have to" items. Also, anything given to them, would come at multiple month intervals. Stallion's laptop should have been given to them in July of next year in 17k pieces with a note saying they were sorry but it fell out of the car on the way there.
The NCAA has literally had coaches on tape offering things to recruits and done nothing after years long investigations. Working with them only makes it worse for you. See Oklahoma State, MO, and countless other schools that "tried to do the right thing".
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:05 PM ^
Yep. Try 6yrs for Kansas to get a slap on the wrist.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
The University will impose a B1G championship and CFP ban. Would not be surprised if Sherrone Moore is HC for the Purdue. This Stalions kid fucked over Blake Corum and all the other good kids on that team. You really think the University will allow Michigan to be dragged through the mud for months, listening to everyone cry we don’t deserve the right to play for a title because we cheated? The University will endure months of horrendous publicity just to win a game or two that will inevitably be vacated?
This is all because Harbaugh let some football groupie military dope become an official hanger-on. When you lie down with dogs, don’t be surprised when you wake up with fleas.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:46 PM ^
If you believe that bullshit, then you should be putting big $$$ on OSU winning the B1G.
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:53 PM ^
He's not a real person. He's a fan of the color Redd. So take it with a Bucknut and a grain of salt!!!
October 23rd, 2023 at 5:57 PM ^
Or maybe he is racing to the Michigan border to place his bets!!!
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
Nothing is proven. You know what is proven? Meyer supporting a guy who was an abuser. Last I hear, he still has connections to OSU.
So, don't preach about who and who shouldn't be working at UM.
October 23rd, 2023 at 6:55 PM ^
Its the opposite.
If Michigan cheated and had an advantage then clearly they'll lose to Penn State and OSU, now that they definitely don't have said advantage.
However, if Michigan beats Penn State in Happy Valley 31-8 and OSU 34-10 as it appears they will then this will go away.