Never Too Early Bowl Projections: Michigan to NYC or Vegas
Kyle Bonagura has Michigan playing Boston College in the New Era Pinstripe Bowl 12/29
Mark Schlabach has Michigan playing Arizona State in the SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl 12/30
You can see all their picks here:
August 26th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
Yep…too early. I’ll give my bowl projection around week 5 or 6. I really hate these. Is it just me?
August 26th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Same.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
Not the best assessments, but time fillers for another week.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
Yes, I don’t mind the talking point, it just seems everyone has a prediction and we know zero about what kind of team we’ll see based on the new DC and all of the staff. I’m hoping to surprise in a good way. Guess we’ll see soon enough.
August 27th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
Another year, another comment complaining about bowl prediction/tournament seeding/top 25 rankings being put out too early.
August 26th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
Reasonable. Seems like that'd mean winning 7 regular season games.
August 26th, 2021 at 12:59 PM ^
Well that would be...gross.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Schlabach’s prediction would mean I’m going to Vegas twice in December ?
August 26th, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
Most of the "experts" I've heard/seen have Michigan winning 6-7 games this season.
All the college radio shows on SiriusXM-ESPNU Radio that I have listened to over the past couple weeks have Michigan winning between 6-8 games.
Brett McMurphy, surprisingly, is the most optimistic and has Michigan playing LSU in the Outback Bowl.
Cant really blame them as I also see no more than 7 wins. Hope Im wrong.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Brett McMurphy, surprisingly, is the most optimistic and has Michigan playing LSU in the Outback Bowl.
Please let this happen. Pretty please with a cherry on top.
But I could see LSU with 4-5 losses this year: Florida, @Ole Miss, @Bama, TAMU. Their first game @UCLA could be interesting.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
That's nuts. 8 or 9 wins for us this year. You "don't see more than" 7 wins? There is one sure-loss on the schedule and every other team has weaknesses just like we do. Remember how PSU was 0-5 to start the year last year? And yeah, they beat us but because we had everyone injured by then. No one on our schedule save Ohio State scares me.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
On paper I agree with you, but this coaching staff always finds a way to underperform. Until they prove they can be an underdog going in to a game and win or do better than 50% in 50/50 games, I just can't put any faith in this coaching staff.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:30 PM ^
The fact road games against the likes of PSU and Wisconsin doesn’t scare you makes me wonder if you have watched this team under Jim on the road??
There is a legit scenario they lose their last 3 games of the year plus Wisconsin
August 26th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
I agree that we haven't been amazing on the road under Harbaugh (or before Harbaugh) but once we're saying Maryland is a likely loss I have to bow out. That's too much pessimism to be realistic. I think PSU and Wisconsin will both be tough games, and likely-but-not-guaranteed losses. I just don't see why Washington being lumped into that group, as well as Indiana. And even if we lose ALL FIVE of those games, we're still 7-5 (but I don't think that's happening).
Look, if we're devastated by injuries again and none of those teams are, then sure all bets are off. Outside of that I think we're 8-4 or better.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
Have you not seen Michigan on the road against decent teams in the Harbaugh era? It's not pretty.
@WISCY, @PSU, @NEBRASKA, @SPARTY, @ MARYLAND.
None of those games scare you? Might be 2-3 at best in those games.
The Washington game will tell us a lot about this team. Still think 7-5 is the most logical outcome. Again, I want nothing more than to be proven wrong, but we'll see...
August 26th, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
Are you reading what you are typing? You start off by saying Michigan does not do well on the road against "decent" teams. I can agree with that, its been a problem.
The issue I have is what you maybe considering as "decent teams"
Wisconsin - Yeah...
PSU - eh
Sparty - seriously? I know everyone is jaded by last year, but they are NOT a decent team...
Nebraska - Ummmmm... no
Maryland - again...... no
So you note that 2-3 is the best case scenario.... I would say that is the floor, with only 1 legit "decent" team. The other 4..... you are saying we will go 1-3 against..... ok you have a right to your opinion, but under these predictions, you are using a very loose term of "decent" in describing teams....
I would expect 2-3 to be a disappointment, with 3-2 more likely (say 75% chance) and 4-1 (say 17% chance) over 2-3 (6% chance) or either extreme.... 5-0 (1.9275%) or 0-5 (.0725%)
August 26th, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
Umm Maryland is improved. You saw what happened last year against Sparty.
Wisconsin has beaten Michigan by about 100 the last 2 meetings.
PSU will/should be better. Maybe Harbaugh can pull a '15 and get a win in Happy Valley. Game will be a partial whiteout and will most likely start 330, so not quit as daunting as a night game, but still dont expect a W.
Nebraska should be a win.
2-3 seems pretty reasonable to me. But 3-2 certainly would be a nice outcome. I feel your 75% is a bit high, but I hope Im wrong.
August 26th, 2021 at 3:53 PM ^
Don't sleep on Maryland. They return something like 85% of their roster, highest in FBS.
August 26th, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
I get that, but they return a team that wasn't any good. They got smoked by NW, lost to Rutgers and needed OT to get by Minnesota. Bringing back 85% of that roster doesn't make them scary.
August 27th, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^
When comparing decent teams, you do realize Michigan isn't really that decent either right?
August 26th, 2021 at 1:11 PM ^
Schlabach predicting Bama, Georgia, Clemson, and Oklahoma in the playoffs. I'm not sure how he comes up with those 4 teams.
If Clemson loses to Georgia in the first game, do they have enough quality wins to get them into the playoffs?
If Georgia loses to Clemson, they would need to beat Bama in the SEC championship to get in, which I guess could happen but I wouldn't count on it. (And holy shit, that is a weak schedule. Apart from Clemson and Florida, they don't play anyone).
August 26th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
The SEC East has always felt a bit like a slightly higher-end Big 10 West, wherein there are 1-2 really good teams and then a bunch of muck, and the other division is typically much more difficult and full of better teams.
I also think Florida takes a step back this year; they return very little offensive production from last year, are breaking in a new QB (who has been there for years, admittedly), and have questions around the offensive line. Plus, their defense was pretty bad last year and they apparently lost a starting corner for the year recently. So there's a good chance Georgia plays Clemson and then nobody above "okay" until the SEC title game.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:37 PM ^
How does OSU not get in? It’s highly probable they finish the regular season undefeated. And I’m tired of Oklahoma getting in every year just to get curb stomped by Bama or Clemson.
August 26th, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
Yeah, it’s much more fun watching a different team come in and get curb stomped by Bama or Clemson
August 26th, 2021 at 1:15 PM ^
The first thing that popped in my head reading that guy's name was "Cowabunga"
Obviously I've been staring at a screen too long today lol
August 26th, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
These arent the national championship games?
August 26th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
Seems to fall in line with what most of the analysts are projecting for this year I suppose
August 26th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
FWIW, The Athletic has Michigan ranked #38 out of 130, which seems about right.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
We go through this every year - projected for winnable bowls based on season expectations - then get moved up to play Florida or another SEC team in Florida.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
Exactly - bowl games are about TV viewership. UM will not be in a meaningless bowl against a team with a small following.
They will be in a meaningless bowl with a team with a big following
August 26th, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
Some of the other way-too-early Bowl Projections:
24/7 Sports - Outback Bowl vs. Texas A&M (1/1)
Athlon Sports - Music City Bowl vs Tennessee (12/30)
College Football News - Outback Bowl vs Ole Miss (1/1)
CBS Sports - Music City Bowl vs. Missouri (12/30)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/bowls/predictions/
Sports Illustrated - Citrus Bowl vs. Auburn (1/1)
Pro Football Network - Music City Bowl vs. Missouri (12/30)
Sporting News (same as Yahoo Sports and Action Network Sports) - Outback Bowl vs. LSU (1/1)
August 26th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
Fixed it for you
24/7 Sports - Outback Bowl vs. Florida (1/1)
Athlon Sports - Music City Bowl vs Florida (12/30)
College Football News - Outback Bowl vs Florida (1/1)
CBS Sports - Music City Bowl vs. Florida (12/30)
https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/bowls/predictions/
Sports Illustrated - Citrus Bowl vs. Florida (1/1)
Pro Football Network - Music City Bowl vs. Florida (12/30)
Sporting News (same as Yahoo Sports and Action Network Sports) - Outback Bowl vs. Florida (1/1)
August 26th, 2021 at 3:49 PM ^
At a time when I'm not feeling all that cheerful, THAT made me laugh! Thank you!
Only question is whether Tim Tebow will be on the telecast to provide commentary.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
Great information. Very helpful. Bowl predictions made before a single game has been played always end up being dead-on accurate.
Seriously, congrats to ESPN for coming up with meaningless content that gets guys like me to click on it. Kyle and Mark are earning their paychecks.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
New York City? Though a lesser bowl that might not attract many travelers, it does have the advantage of having MANY Michigan fans in the area.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
Mad Hatter would be all in on hookers and blow in Vegas.
You out there Hatter?
August 26th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
Bronx hookers are nothing to sneeze at!
August 26th, 2021 at 2:16 PM ^
Leave my sister out of this!
August 26th, 2021 at 1:40 PM ^
That's definitely a list of teams and associated bowl games. I'm not quite sure they're based in much reality, but there they are.
August 26th, 2021 at 1:59 PM ^
HOW ABOUT THE SEPTEMBER HEISMAN WHO'S WINNING THAT?
August 26th, 2021 at 2:01 PM ^
C.J. Stroud, duh.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
What I want to know is whatever happened to Brian's favorite blogger, Heisman Pundit.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Bowl predictions right now - on August 26th - seem like a really inane thing to attempt. As others have mentioned, talk to me about this in the latter half of October, but not before then. It must be a slow news day at ESPN. Speaking of slow news days:
August 26th, 2021 at 2:02 PM ^
Ah yes, the "SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl." Just rolls right off the tongue and a match made in heaven. When you think of Las Vegas, how can you not also immediately think of SRS Distribution? They're practically one and the same.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
I'm sure the SRS branded swag they'll shower the team with will be all the rage, too...
August 26th, 2021 at 2:25 PM ^
Not that anyone is keeping score, but as a measure of my current level of BPONE, my first reaction to the OP was "the team'll be able to go wherever they want, as they'll be spectators"... My second reaction was "who cares, just another chance to be humiliated on national TV" (a sentiment not helped by a visit to sports-reference.com to confirm that we're 3 out of our last 14 in bowl games). After that I gave in to my inner snowflake and posted this powerfully insightful comment.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
vs Clemson @ Lucas Oil Stadium....
you heard it here first.
August 26th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
Our team was very bad last year though. It's hard to say how much COVID affected the team (but somehow not as much as other teams across the conference?) but the way we played last year, I'd peg us at 3 wins in a full season. To go from 3 to 7 is a big jump and shows a lot of respect for the talent and coaching staff. Personally, I'll be happy just getting to any bowl game with 6 wins, I was really shocked at how bad the team was last season.
August 26th, 2021 at 5:41 PM ^
Did you follow anything about the team last year? Yeah, we weren't good. We had our offensive and defensive stars decide to sit out, leaving pretty big holes. But early on Kwity and Aiden looked unstoppable - then they both got hurt. Then our starting LT got hurt. All while our QB realized the lights were too bright for him and we had to rely in a RS frosh who wasn't supposed to be the guy yet.
That is all a recipe for a crummy season.
August 26th, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
Seeing that I live in Vegas I would gladly love to see us play here, but I would prefer a better bowl game.