The ND game has said little about the rest of the season, the MSU game, and the OSU game
A month or so ago, I posted Michigan’s winning percentage in the last 30 years in seasons in which the Wolverines beat ND, lost to ND, tied ND, and didn’t play ND.* Several posters wondered out loud what Michigan’s winning percentage was in those years against OSU and MSU, so I looked that up too.
I’ve re-posted the season winning percentages below, and I’ve added Michigan’s winning percentages against the Buckeyes and Spartans. As you’ll see, the result of the ND game hasn’t made any great** statement about the rest of a Michigan season or the results of the OSU and MSU games. That said, it’s told us the the most with regard to the OSU game.
Winning percentage in the rest of the season...
...when beating ND: 74%
...when losing to ND: 70%
...when tying ND: 91% (only one season)
...when not playing ND: 66%
Winning percentage against OSU...
...when beating ND: 50%
...when losing to ND: 40%
...when tying ND: 50% (one tie)
...when not playing ND: 60%
Winning percentgage against MSU...
...when beating ND: 64%
...when losing to ND: 60%
...when tying ND: 100% (one game)
...when not playing ND: 40%
*To be clear: I looked at what their winning percentage was all non-ND games.
**I concede that 10% and 4% are significant. But are they great like King Kong or Nikola Tesla or a burrito made with Korean beef? I say no.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:28 PM ^
Mmmmm burritos
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:36 PM ^
Who knew?
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:50 PM ^
I'm not eating a burrito in a country where dog meat is a delicacy.
September 3rd, 2014 at 9:21 PM ^
They eat dog, and I've had dog soup once, but it's far from a "delicacy". There's less and less since there's now a culture of owning dogs, especially Korean women owning tiny dogs. Men are much more likely to eat it, especially older men.
September 3rd, 2014 at 10:48 PM ^
There's a restaurant chain in Northeast China called "Kim's Korean Dog Meat Restaurant". I've eaten at one in Shenyang. Very popular in the winter. I also passed a truck loaded with frozen dog carcasses on the highway, but that was a long time ago. I've actually only been to North Korea, not South, but will visit the South this fall. In the North, I didn't see anyone eat dog, but I did see people eating bark and leaves off trees and shrubs.
September 3rd, 2014 at 9:22 PM ^
Of course there are some cows, but most beef comes from Australia. Basically the only stuff that's Korean beef is called Hanoo (I think, not sure how it's Romanized actually, 한우) and it's like Kobe beef in that it's expensive and marbled.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:34 PM ^
I don't give a shit about the rest of the season yet. First, to hell with Notre Dame. I really hope this team takes a day by day approach because they have the talent to do special things.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
Michigan's rivals in terms of how they put their team together and play. Over the years, Michigan and Notre Dame are closer to each other in terms of football templates, than either Michigan State or Ohio State. This is because of recruiting mostly and how they frequently go after the same athletes.
This is, of course, true with the others. But the tradition of Notre Dame also comes closest to Michigan among the rivals.
This is and always will be a tremendous matchup of schools with deep history and values. I mean Michigan chose ND to do its first official under the lights games.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
Michigan's rivals in terms of how they put their team together and play. Over the years, Michigan and Notre Dame are closer to each other in terms of football templates, than either Michigan State or Ohio State. This is because of recruiting mostly and how they frequently go after the same athletes.
This is, of course, true with the others. But the tradition of Notre Dame also comes closest to Michigan among the rivals.
This is and always will be a tremendous matchup of schools with deep history and values. I mean Michigan chose ND to do its first official under the lights games.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:43 PM ^
Again...
and again...
and again.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
Michigan's rivals in terms of how they put their team together and play. Over the years, Michigan and Notre Dame are closer to each other in terms of football templates, than either Michigan State or Ohio State. This is because of recruiting mostly and how they frequently go after the same athletes.
This is, of course, true with the others. But the tradition of Notre Dame also comes closest to Michigan among the rivals.
This is and always will be a tremendous matchup of schools with deep history and values. I mean Michigan chose ND to do its first official under the lights games.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:30 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:35 PM ^
Michigan's rivals in terms of how they put their team together and play. Over the years, Michigan and Notre Dame are closer to each other in terms of football templates, than either Michigan State or Ohio State. This is because of recruiting mostly and how they frequently go after the same athletes.
This is, of course, true with the others. But the tradition of Notre Dame also comes closest to Michigan among the rivals.
This is and always will be a tremendous matchup of schools with deep history and values. I mean Michigan chose ND to do its first official under the lights games.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:42 PM ^
This was a better point the first 3 times... lol :P
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:31 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:41 PM ^
However, I dont care. Beating ND feels pretty damn good for a week.
Beating ND > Not Beating ND
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:44 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:44 PM ^
Looks like we'll just have to settle for the satisfaction of kicking their ass for its own sake.
September 3rd, 2014 at 6:49 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:06 PM ^
Yeah, informative. The way things have felt lately I almost would have guessed a negative correlation. Anyway, interesting.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:08 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:43 PM ^
Michigan played ND to a 17-17 tie and then OSU to a 13-13 tie in 1992. That was the 9-0-3 team.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:08 PM ^
I agree with OP. But when we win, this will be the first road win against a ranked oppenent under Hoke. A good step.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:21 PM ^
It is very interesting data really, and thanks for sharing it. It does seem to me that, as the fact that the outcomes of games are independent of one another, this is probably the result you would expect - despite what a lot of people seem to think, the outcome of a game in isolation never seems to be telling typically, at least not statistically.
One thing that might also be interesting is to look at seasons where we did play all three games in that timespan and look at overall record at the point we played each team in each year, correlate the percentage at each point to the overall percentage in that year, and attempt to "map" the season using the rivalries as a reference.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:21 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:23 PM ^
I know that beating ND and rolling through an otherwise easy September and early October schedule doesn't always portend good things, but this is a massive game. Michigan's troubles in the Hoke era have been on the road. We are 20-2 under Hoke at home, but just 6-12 (5-9 in true road games) away from the Big House with road wins at Northwestern (2), Illinois, Purdue, and Connecticut.
This is unacceptable for a conference contending level program, especially the 0-4 mark against our main rivals. It would also be the first road win over a Top 25 program since our 2006! win in South Bend. That's 10 consecutive road losses to top flight competition. It won't ruin our season to lose, but it makes another 8 win season seem to be most likely.
I love the depth, talent level, and schematic improvements I believe this team has finally made. But without winning, it's just another year of lip service. Winning this game sets the table for a potential 10 win season and the serious step forward this program needs. And on a more micro-level, a win in this game should instill a new confidence in Devin Gardner and the rest of the team that they can compete and win wherever, whenever, and against whoever. This game MATTERS.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:38 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:45 PM ^
Don't think it is going to mean much in relation to OSU or MSU this year either because I think if you took Golson off ND right now they are a wholly average team. ( I am going to give OSU the benefit of the doubt their QB will be in good shape by end November) On defense outside of Sheldon Day they don't have an impact player. Jaylon Smith will probably be a monster eventually but he was not to be found much v Rice. And for the past 15 years or so ND has been a mostly pedestrian team with a lot of 7-6, 8-5 type seasons save 2011. If they had been in the Big 10 all this time I figure they'd be akin to Iowa in terms of on field performance.
From 1997 forward (post Holtz era)
- 7-6
- 9-3
- 5-7
- 9-3
- 5-6
- 10-3
- 5-7
- 6-6
- 9-3
- 10-3
- 3-9
- 7-6
- 6-6
- 8-5
- 8-5
- 12-1
- 9-4
If I gave you those records for nearly 15+ years and didn't give you the team you'd say Iowa or West Virginia or Arizona State or whatever. We have not been any better the last 6 years but their reign of mediocre has been far longer.
Continues to showcase how important coaching is at this level. They only lost more than 3 games three times in Holtz's 11 year reign and 2 of those came in his first 2 years.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:42 PM ^
Obviously the tie is the best outcome.
/s
On that note I had to look up what the record for most overtimes was because the only way I can imagine a tie game now would be a case of insane OTs. The 2003 game between Arkansas and Kentucky holds the record with 7 OTs. The game ended in a 71-63 win for Kentucky. Interestingly enough, Arkansas was also in a 7 OT game in 2001 against Mississippi. There's some random facts for you.
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:46 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 7:59 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 8:01 PM ^
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September 3rd, 2014 at 8:05 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 8:20 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 8:30 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 9:17 PM ^
We need to win, but those reasons are probably #995 and #996 as to why. :)
September 3rd, 2014 at 10:41 PM ^
so you can have the upperhand in mocking your Domer friends for probably the next 10 years minimum. If we lose, that leaves a sour taste on a good run against them. If we win, all Domers will remember for years is the number of times we humiliated them to end the series
September 3rd, 2014 at 9:05 PM ^
September 3rd, 2014 at 9:25 PM ^
I think one problem with using ND as a barometer is that they're often overrated. So we've sometimes gotten a big win over them and feel like we're sitting pretty until we play another real opponent. Unfortunately, in more recent years, State has been that reality check.
September 3rd, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
Glad you reposted this; it was one of the most insightful things I read this summer regarding the upcoming season. It helped me form my personal baseline for how I would view the season.
Basically, while I desperately want to win Saturday, it doesn't make all that much difference. If Michigan wins every other game except the two other road rivalry games, most fans will reluctantly accept it and Hoke will keep his job without calls for firing. If Michigan wins, but loses to a non-rival, the loss to a team that Michigan should beat (more talent, either at home against a decent team like PSU or on the road against a bad team) will cancel out any of the good benefits of a road win against ND.
The only real difference would be a positive--if the only losses are to MSU and OSU, it's a lot more acceptable if Michigan is 10-2, going to a good bowl, and only losing to top ten-quality teams.
September 4th, 2014 at 5:27 AM ^
Since the series resumed in 1978, UM has won in South Bend just once per decade:
1978, 1986, 1994, 2006, and 2010.
September 4th, 2014 at 12:52 PM ^
But I'd guess that the Notre Dame game tells us more about the quality of various position groups than playing say Eastern, Western or Central. I for one will be watching the line play on both sides of the ball. In most seasons, this is the first game in which Opponent Caveats don't so much apply. If our O line(and receivers) is/are manhandling ND like they did App St(which I certainly don't anticipate) it's going to be a really good year. Hence the intrigue.