Michigan as an Underdog ?
What are the last 5 wins Michigan has had as an underdog? I am trying to look it up here at work, but my employer has all the gambling websites blocked.
It feels like we are overdue for an upset win. Hoping this weekend we can pull it off in Happy Valley. Go Blue!
October 14th, 2019 at 9:31 AM ^
2019 Rutgers
2018 Rutgers
2017 Rutgers
2016 Rutgers
2015 Rutgers
2014 Never Remember
October 14th, 2019 at 9:32 AM ^
Fence the garden.
October 14th, 2019 at 9:36 AM ^
I have been upset after our last five wins.
October 14th, 2019 at 9:43 AM ^
ha, but seriously i cant think of the last time
October 14th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
Is this REALLY for gambling? Or as you trying to bum us out with VERY depressing stats on a Monday morning?
October 14th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
Is this another perspective post? Regression to the mean version?
October 14th, 2019 at 2:46 PM ^
People forget that means drift.
October 14th, 2019 at 9:52 AM ^
Was '09 Wisconsin the last time?
October 14th, 2019 at 9:57 AM ^
- Northwestern 2013, Won 27-19
- Illinois 2011, Won 31-14
- Notre Dame 2011, Won 35-31
- Notre Dame 2010, Won 28-24
Source: https://www.oddsshark.com/stats/dbresults/football/ncaaf If I am reading their search results correctly (and I admit i might not be as odds/bettting are not my forte) these are our last 4 wins in the thirty most recent games we've been underdogs.
Now in most seasons we've only had 1-4 games where we are underdogs (except 2013 where it was 6 times), but woof. Not great, Bob.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:06 AM ^
Surprised we were an underdog to Illinois in 2011. The Illini started out 5-0 against crap teams but had lost three straight once we rolled in to town.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^
Thanks for the info NeverPunt. What are the next 5 after the 20009 ND game as I am unable to pull up the link here at work.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
whoa did warde extend the series till 20009?
October 14th, 2019 at 1:04 PM ^
They are hoping ND will join the Big Ten in 20010
October 14th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
2013 vs Northwestern
2011 vs Illinois (wtf)
2011, 2010,2009 all vs Notre Dame
October 14th, 2019 at 10:05 AM ^
Harbaugh has only been an underdog 6 times at Michigan previous to this game, not once last season.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:12 AM ^
Being an underdog is good for us we need more practice in learning how to win these games
October 14th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
Now that the “can’t beat a ranked team on the road” hysteria has been retired, the “Harbaugh has yet to win as an underdog” is the new most important talking point in football.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
1-9 vs top 10, 0-4 vs OSU, 0-7 as underdog. We have the 10th most talented team according to 247 composite ratings, so these numbers, aside from OSU, are very unsettling. People on this board said wait til Harbaugh gets all his guys. Well now the roster is totally his and the team is still underperforming so people say it’s just growing pains from the new offensive install. I obviously hope that Harbaugh succeeds, but at what point will people stop making excuses for him?
Harbaugh is such a conservative coach, I want the guy from 2015 and 2016 back.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:30 AM ^
I think “Harbaugh can’t beat Ohio State” was, and remains, the biggest Harbaugh talking point.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:25 AM ^
Harbaugh can't beat ranked teams on the road may be bigger
October 14th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Soon to be superseded by:
- Harbaugh has yet to win against Ohio State
- Harbaugh has yet to win the Conference Championship
- Harbaugh has yet to win the National Championship
October 14th, 2019 at 12:45 PM ^
Nothings been retired. Harbaughs record against good teams on the road is horrific
October 14th, 2019 at 2:04 PM ^
Didn’t Franklin just win his first road game against a ranked team this week? The only difference is he backed into a B1G championship when The Game 2016 happened.
i swear if that game turned out the way it should have, the narrative is much different, and Frames is looking for a job.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
Doing this assessment, it's depressing to see how many times Michigan has failed to pull off the upset in the past 10 years when going into a game as an underdog, but here are the select few....
2013: Michigan at Northwestern, +2.5 - Michigan 27, Northwestern 19
2011: Michigan vs. Notre Dame, +3.5 - Michigan 35, Notre Dame 31
2011: Michigan at Illinois, +1.0 - Michigan 31, Illinois 14
2010: Michigan at Notre Dame, +3.5 - Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24
2009: Michigan vs. Notre Dame, +3.5 - Michigan 38, Notre Dame 34
2008: Michigan vs. Wisconsin, +4.5 - Michigan 27, Wisconsin 25
October 14th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
All of those spreads are within 4.5 points, I’m curious to know how our record is over the last decade when we are +7 or higher.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
The past decade, Michigan is 0-10 when it's a 7 point dog or worse, but only 0-2 under Harbaugh. Most of those losses were under Hoke and Rodriguez.
The last time Michigan pulled an upset when it was more than a touchdown underdog was 1998 at Iowa, which we won 12-9. Before that, it was against Ohio State in 1995, when Biakabutuka went ham on the Buckeyes enroute to a 31-23 victory.
October 14th, 2019 at 11:18 AM ^
I believe Michigan was an 18 point underdog at OSU in 1996. We won 13-9.
I was there. It was glorious.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:52 AM ^
Just because we don't cover the spread often doesn't mean we're a bad team. Just means that if you're putting money on games you should take Michigan straight up!
October 14th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
Well, it turns out Michigan is pretty rarely an underdog under Harbaugh, so that has something to do with it.
James Franklin just notched his very first road win over a ranked opponent on Saturday (though I concede a victory over OSU and Big Ten title have given him some breathing room).
Unless you're Ohio State or Bama, winning on the road against good teams is difficult.
October 14th, 2019 at 2:28 PM ^
Not true. At least if facts have any say.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
Penn State and Notre Dame always seem like the series Michigan is more consistently ready for.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:38 AM ^
Let's play like dogs.
#EXPECT VICTORY
October 14th, 2019 at 10:41 AM ^
If it's a ranked team on the road, Harbaugh's not going to beat them.*
*Unless it's USC.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
Michigan hasn't been an underdog in two years. Vegas LOVES us.
October 14th, 2019 at 12:05 PM ^
Michigan money driving the line to our favor. If we could shoot our money at players and not at a losing cause like sports betting then we would have something.
October 14th, 2019 at 1:08 PM ^
"Michigan money driving the line to our favor."
If 'Michigan money' skews the line in our favor, wouldn't Michigan have a terrible record ATS? Wouldn't you just constantly bet against Michigan and be rich?
October 14th, 2019 at 2:36 PM ^
They do and you would be.
October 14th, 2019 at 3:24 PM ^
Michigan fails to cover about 54% of the time since 2003. You are basically counting on them to go 6-7 ATS, with a one game edge after having to bet them all. Hard to get rich off that after Vegas takes their cut.
Ohio State and Penn State are both over 50% covering in that time. Both have huge fanbases that apparently do not skew the line?
The idea that dumb public Michigan-fan money moves the line is a myth.
October 14th, 2019 at 5:14 PM ^
Michigan fans way over value our team when we are decent. Last years OSU, PSU the year before etc. There is an effect on the line. Whether it’s fans or just suckers beating with Michigan I’m not sure. I would imagine most suckers would be out right now leaving only Michigan fans with too much spendable money left. Do straight up VS MSU,OSU, road top 25 teams over the last decade. We are favored in 55% or more of those games and like 5-28. That’s not educated bettors that keep favoring us. We should be 12 point dogs to PSU. We should have been dogs to OSU last year. Someone is trolling us and I honestly think we should all be profiting from our misery.
October 15th, 2019 at 11:46 AM ^
I do profit from the money line by fading Michigan, partially as an emotional hedge. I don't bet Michigan ATS when an underdog because they could cover and still lose. Then I would lose both ways.
BTW none of the numbers would say we should have been dogs to OSU last year, they were terrible the whole season until that game. That is serious 20/20 hindsight. However, I did have a hunch after the Maryland 2-pt conversion failed that we were in trouble, and bet on the OSU moneyline as a consolation. Even that decent chunk of change wasn't much consolation, however.
October 14th, 2019 at 5:05 PM ^
Just play straight up a reel the cash payouts. MSU and OSU combined the last 30 games. 8-24 or something like that. Us being favored in more than half I would bet, maybe 60% plus? Yeah it’s a bettors paradise to take our rivals straight up post 2006.
October 14th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
psu isn't great.. look for the upset.