Michigan - still a far outlier in opp offensive holding penalties
https://mobile.twitter.com/jakeb4813/status/1046491152692785153
Summary from the last 4 years: At 0.76 holds called per 100 plays and 0.58 accepted per 100 plays, Michigan is a far outlier. And in treating it as a mere tally, Michigan's 11 holds across the last 4 makes Michigan's sum the only one that is unbunched from the group.
Unoriginal but true reasoning: Rampant DLs theoretically induce more such opponent holding not a record amount fewer.
Acknowledgement that a ref conspiracy is not the ONLY explanation: (See before)
A way forward:
I think it's OK for Michigan to politely demand an answer. And, since that answer will almost assuredly not be "oh we're just systematically biased against you," it's also OK/smart to discuss a way to test or confirm the answer they do get.
For example, if the Big Ten says it's just outrageously bad luck/coincidence, then Michigan should expect reversion to the mean - maybe even quickly. If the Big Ten asks its refs and says it may be more due to something structural about Michigan's defense, then Michigan can go back and count holding penalties when they were/weren't doing that thing (to confirm).
Either way, nothing bad can come from going to the Big Ten and saying "hey, here's a weird/concerning observation; let's talk."
October 1st, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
Here's a clickable version to facilitate less copy/pasting.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
Here is an embedded image of the table (and here is a thread from last year on this topic):
October 1st, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Has anyone sent this table to Warde?
October 1st, 2018 at 2:25 PM ^
Thanks for sharing the initial link to when I did the analysis. For those who want to read more, I also posted a follow up here https://mgoblog.com/diaries/offensive-holding-b1g-and-beyond-part-deux.
I did share the analysis with John Bacon, who I'd call a friend, as well as another player on the football team. I assume at this point Harbaugh is aware.
I ended up doing a lot more analysis that never got posted. For example:
- Michigan's trend of getting shafted on holding goes back to 2010, with 2011 being the only year where Michigan was in the middle of the pack.
- I tried to do an analysis of penalties by referee, including holding. The sample sizes just got too small, with varying opponents, to get any signal among the noise. O'Neill actually graded out in the middle of the pack of B1G referees.
This will always be the image I use to illustrate how screwed Michigan has been:
October 1st, 2018 at 3:14 PM ^
Thank you for doing this!
October 1st, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^
Nothing more to add beyond emphasizing how actually insane these numbers are. I'm not a ref conspiracy guy but I DO believe there is something to the O'Neil crew having an internalized bias against Michigan and that this needs to be addressed by our AD with the conference. Clear statistical outlier when, if anything, they should be an outlier the other way given the strength of our DL.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
I feel like this should be updated each week, posted and copy the big 10 each week, maybe the BTN crew. Make it publicly known. Michigan may not be able to realistically ask for an explanation, so it may take some work to get it noticed by someone who matters.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:54 AM ^
I figured it was all just talk but after that absolutely ridiculous "holding" penalty against Higdon, I'm starting to think these guys clearly have it out for Harbaugh.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
The interesting thing about this chart is that the two highest teams here are two of the worst teams in the conference over this time period.
Maybe refs feel bad for bad teams?
The per game numbers mean nothing, btw, since better teams get off the field and defend fewer plays. Certainly surprising that we're still the lowest on a per play basis but it's not as bad as the per game numbers look.
Still doesn't explain why we're so much lower than other good teams, but the chart is interesting.
October 1st, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Hm. The part where you say "better teams get off the field and defend fewer plays" makes me think "Oh, yeah, we do tha-" until I remember our offense over the last few years and I think, "Wait, maybe our defense is actually on the field for more plays than a lot of defenses."
Tempo, schedule, etc. all play roles too, obviously.
October 1st, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Well, we also play a snail's pace on offense so M plays fewer drives per game than most college teams.
And I agree that last year, our offense was bad and in some games, we probably did play more defensive snaps than the opposition (PSU and Wisconsin almost certainly). Still, for most of our games, even last year, we ground out long drives with the running game, got three and outs frequently (I think M leads the country in three and outs over the past few years) and didn't play many defensive snaps in most games.
In 2015 and 2016, our offenses weren't elite but they were fine, so we almost certainly didn't play many defensive snaps those years.
So compare the charts. The per game data has FIVE really bad teams at the top when you just consider the raw numbers. That's because they have to defend a lot of plays. Then Wisconsin, MSU and OSU shoot up the list on a per play basis, and Michigan isn't as egregiously an outlier (although still bad), because all those teams defend fewer plays than the average team.
Rutgers on the other hand, is top 5 in per game but plummets in per play because they defend so many plays. Hence the per game data is meaningless, really. Per play is much more instructive.
Michigan leads the country in three and outs over the past couple years or something like that. The M defense doesn't play many plays. Doesn't take them long to get off the field. That's usually the hallmark of an aggressive scheme. Opposite of bend don't break defenses.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
Wha?
Unoriginal but true reasoning: Rampant DLs theoretically induce more such opponent holding not a record amount fewer.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^
"This is even more surprising given the context**, which isn't a new idea but still deserves repeating."
**(Michigan's DL has been filthy during each year of this analysis and that should be causing more of these opponent penalties, but that's the opposite of what we're seeing)
October 1st, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
Well, I'm not trying to be critical, there's more than enough of that on this blog, but your wording throughout was kinda awkward to follow.
October 1st, 2018 at 12:13 PM ^
You are being very kind. Luckily I knew what he wanted to say.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:29 AM ^
When the writer posits "true reasoning" the reader anticipates an explanation to follow along the lines of why the supposed thing is happening. However, it's jarring for the reader when the writer's explanation simply repeats the problem rather than explaining why the conundrum may validly exist.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^
On the subject of penalties, but not worthy of its own thread:
I'm looking for video of the play against Nebraska where the Michigan runner suffered what appeared to be a blatant face mask. No flag was thrown initially, but the officials huddled and then threw a flag. Does anyone have that on video?
October 1st, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
Photo's nice but ideally I'm looking for a video. There used to be certain nefarious individuals who would upload whole games to youtube but I'm not seeing them this time... maybe the copyright holders are cracking down.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:01 AM ^
I was at this game and the entire stadium saw the facemask and boo'd the refs incessantly. Only after it was put on the big screen and clear and blatant facemask (and the refs looked up and watched it) did they throw the flag.
I'm convinced that if the stadium screen operator hadn't put that on the video board, it wouldn't have been called. It truly felt like a "oh shit, well now we have to call it" scenario. Not an "ah we must've missed it" scenario.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^
I have never seen a penalty called as a result of the stadium putting the replay on the screen. Fucking college football refs.
October 1st, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
I was listening on the radio and that's exactly what they said - the call was made based on the video replay and the resulting crowd groan. Who knows if that's true, but good on the replay board operator for showing it either way.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:20 PM ^
I too was there and agree 100% with MgoKev.
I had the refs in the binoculars and they looked like the kid who forgot his presentation poster in school until one just gently dropped that flag.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Start at 14:50
October 1st, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Thanks. I forgot it was on a punt return - probably why I couldn't find it.
Some people have pointed out that the defender did not grab the face mask, but rather the top of the opening of the face hole, near the forehead. Your still photo above would look to confirm this. Some casual observers claim this means it wasn't a penalty, but they are wrong - the "facemask" penalty covers any opening of the helmet, not just the mask.
So I see two possible explanations for the penalty:
1. None of the refs saw the penalty, in spite of the blatantness. That's bad. They only threw the flag upon seeing the video scoreboard, a sort of unofficial video review. While we're glad they got the call right eventually, that's not something they're legally supposed to do, so that's bad too.
2. The refs observed the head yank but noted that the actual face mask was not grabbed. All refs in position to throw the flag were not aware that the rule covers all helmet openings and thus did not throw it. In the ref huddle someone pointed out the exact rule, and based on that standard, the flag was thrown. That's bad too, because it suggests most of the refs on the field don't know all the rules.
October 1st, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
MGoVideo is back to uploading each half of the game.
Nebraska First Half & Second Half links:
October 1st, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
Saw that on reddit this morning. I think it’s fairly outrageous that we - probably having had the best D-line in the conference over the last few years - are also getting the least number of holding calls. It’s like the refs have a subconscious inclination to ‘help’ some teams not others or in our case, it has to be a really egregious hold to warrant a flag. We should probably be drawing the most holding flags. Certainly not the least.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:53 AM ^
The D-line is to fast to be held.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:43 AM ^
" probably having had the best D-line in the conference over the last few years - are also getting the least number of holding calls. "
Based on a look I did a year or two ago - that actually seems to be the trend across college football. Better DL tend to get LESS holding calls.
If I remember right, over the couple year period I looked at, Alabama was even getting significantly LESS holding calls than Michigan.
October 1st, 2018 at 1:26 PM ^
It does make some sense though too. Unlike Northwestern on Saturday in the second half, most teams who play us throw the ball quick, or run.
5-7 step drop scan the field and - - - well your quarterback is dead now, doesn't work.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
It's not a coincidence with the O'Neil crew. The Game '16 is one of the most infuriating injustices in the history of Michigan football.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
Pretty sure that was Caprion, the guy that led the crew that did the NC game last year. Notable O’Neal games are MSU 2015 and Iowa 2016.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^
Well shit, I could have sworn it was O'Neil. Thanks for the correction.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
I don’t blame you, he is quite memorable for all of the wrong reasons. This is not just a Michigan thing. O’Neal’s crew has a knack for missing blatant stuff and asserting themselves into the game at terrible times with “I guess you COULD call that but why now” calls. They are consistently inconsistent.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^
That wasn't the O'Neil crew. That was the Capron crew.
October 1st, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
O'Neil is the crew from '15 MSU that ejected Bolden for targeting when he got blocked in the back, fell on the QB as a result of this, and their helmets gently "booped".
Among several other reffing atrocities in that game, including multiple missed calls in the blocked punt return.
October 1st, 2018 at 1:16 PM ^
The O'Neill crew was 2015 MSU game. Ugh.
And the 2016 Iowa game where they called us for a dubious targeting call, roughing the punter, and grazing a face mask that set up the game-winning FG.
And the 2015 Oregon State game for roughing the punter (that was running outside of the tackle box), which elicited the thrown clipboard from Harbaugh (the B1G later apologized for the wrong call).
October 1st, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
Good work. Refs just want to give the other teams half a chance.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^
I am a huge hockey fan. https://scoutingtherefs.com is maybe my favorite site ever. I wish they would go slightly more in depth but they break each ref down in terms of statistics. Very cool stuff. So you know the refs taht call a higher percentage of minors, majors etc per game, what they are calling, etc.
Wish this was a thing for CFB.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
That leads me to wonder if Michigan's DL is explicitly coached not to exaggerate the impact of holds, ie, not flop. If that's the case, the logic must be that if you flop and don't get the call you might take yourself further out of the play.
Anyone else got a non-conspiratorial explanation (and I'm not saying it's not bias)?
October 1st, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
There might be some truth to this. The last series in yesterday's game where Winovich went for the flop when obviously being held, took him out of the play. He didn't get the call either, but I can't ever remember Chase doing that before.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:39 AM ^
I just glad that Chase didn't get called for holding, himself, ala Higdon.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^
Unoriginal but true reasoning: Rampant DLs theoretically induce more such opponent holding not a record amount fewer.
It's interesting to see the numbers because the phenomenon is truly strange when it comes to Michigan. You would think our DL would create far more offensive holds than it does, and indeed, especially this season, I am sure quite a few yards have been left out there as a result of these uncalled holds.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
If only our defensive line was as athletic and aggressive as Indiana and Purdue's
October 1st, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
I just wish other teams DBs got called for holding/PI. Sure, Michigan grabs quite a bit more but blatant non-calls when the same is done to our WRs is infuriating as well.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:37 AM ^
Eh, I've thought most of the PI on us this season have been fine calls. There are maybe one or two during the game that are not good, but the style + the dudes are actually all over the receivers = more PI calls.
October 1st, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^
Most of the PI calls against M this year have been within what the rules define as PI.
The problem with PI calls in general is that there is great variance from week to week on how closely ref crews will enforce PI rules.
Some crews will call PI on some very minor stuff (that is arguably technically within the rule definition of PI).
Other crews will call PI only on egregious PIs and allow a lot of technical PI violations to slide.
Gotta be consistent within games and also week-to-week.
And then there are the non-PI calls late in the 2016 M-OSU game... Don't get me started.
October 1st, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
Yea most of the PI and holding calls against Michigan's secondary were legit.
My argument is that when the other teams DBs are doing the same thing as Michigan's DBs, those flags aren't thrown nearly as much. I see Michigan's receivers getting mugged and rarely is there a PI or holding call on the other teams DBs
October 1st, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^
I see other team's receivers run blocking on a pass play 5 yards downfield, without being called for the pick. Also infuriating.
October 1st, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^
The idea of an anti-Michigan referee cartel is, of course, insane. The penalty/opponent penalty numbers are also insane.
This years-long gaslighting is not fun!