Michigan out Iowa'd Iowa - and I'm mad!

Submitted by RealElonMusk on December 4th, 2023 at 12:07 PM

Michigan had a good win over Iowa but many fans are unhappy with the performance- is this fair?

The only way Michigan was going to lose to Iowa was with turnovers or bad special teams' plays.   Michigan's strategy produced a win probability for the game that never fell below 90%!

Iowa won all year by punting and waiting for the other team to make a mistake.  Hell, Alabama made it to the CFP by punting and getting a chance to score because Auburn fumbled a punt and then blew coverage on fourth down & 31 to goal!

Yes, Michigan played a vanilla game plan that didn't have any explosive plays and few deep shots.  The game plan was to minimize probability of turnovers-  On offense this meant a lot of basic runs & very safe passes.  On special teams, Michigan only returned one punt - Semaj for 87 yards which was very Iowa of him.

I believe Michigan told Sejaj to only field punts if he could do it with 100% confidence.  This led to some balls not being caught and rolling for additional yardage for Iowa.  Accepting the loss of yards and avoiding any risk was the right call (and would have been for Auburn!)

Even with with this extra safe strategy, Michigan's punt average net yards after returns was very close to Iowa's  M 36.6 versus 38.0 for Iowa

I love how Ferentz said in his after interview that he thought they were in it until Michigan went up17.  Really?  Once Michigan was up 10 and took Michigan turnovers out of the equation ESPN had Michigan with a 95% win probability.

Yes the running game looked like crap, yes offensive line pass blocking looked leaky.  However, Michigan just played the SP+ #2 team in the country last week and lost their #OL player, during the game lost their starting center, and JJ had an ankle injury.  

This game is NOT a good measure for how well Michigan will play in the CFP!

Michigan played Iowa in the way that was least likely to give Iowa a chance- and it worked-  26-0, time of possession :

Turnovers:  Michigan 0,  Iowa 3

 

 

JHumich

December 4th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

They played all season as would best set up The Game. (e.g. defense playing a lite box, etc.).

They played Iowa as would best set up the CFP. No reason to put anything else on tape, when "we can be more sound, more tough, and better at field position grinding than you are" ... will more than suffice.

I wasn't bored at all. But I was pleased.

MichiganFootball1313

December 4th, 2023 at 12:13 PM ^

It was a safe and very boring game with little imaginative playcalling, but that is what was needed to beat Iowa.  Flashy crap (TCU) can cost you big time.  We didn't give the Iowa offense anything to work with which guaranteed a win.

SalvatoreQuattro

December 4th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^

He really does. At this point he is a second or third rounder in what is a really deeply draft for QBs. NFL is going to look at the PSU game and wonder why UM didn’t throw it at all. They will look at his modest numbers vs OSU and Iowa. His performance vs Bama will be especially scrutinized.

 

JJ has a ton of potential and is a certified winner, but the NFL is going to heavily scrutinize his  inconsistency and lack of great production in big games. UM’s offensive philosophy will also be a factor. NFL will want to see him performing extremely well in terms of throwing vs excellent teams. He hasn’t shown that yet.

Alabama is massively important for JJ in more ways than one.

Horton Hears a Who

December 4th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^

Why would he come back? I’m not trying to be overly critical of the coaching staff, but he’s not going to drastically improve his draft stock running a Michigan offense.    
 

He won’t be given the reps here and frankly this staff hasn’t consistently shown the ability to create an explosive passing attack. 

SalvatoreQuattro

December 4th, 2023 at 4:33 PM ^

Good question.

If Harbaugh comes back I think JJ does as well. 

This would be second full season with Campbell as his OC. He won’t have Corum or Edwards. Michigan will probably be more pass heavy and require more of him then they do now. A stiffer schedule offers more opportunities to show off his skills.

Of course, if he leaves he probably is in a position to be drafted by a good team as he almost certainly won’t go in top half of first round. It might behoove him to leave a year early. I could see the Lions or Vikings drafting him.

Either way, JJ needs to let the staff know ASAP so they can address the position in the portal.

grumbler

December 4th, 2023 at 7:24 PM ^

The NFL cares about measurables, not performance.  Any decent NFL coach thinks he can coach up a player with measurable talents.  The first few players at any given position might be taken for their potential for immediate impact, and that's not JJ, but he'd likely be the third QB taken, not a third-round QB.

I think that he should come back because the salary difference between the first two QBs taken and the third taken is greater than a year's salary for the third guy taken.   

G. Gulo of the Dale

December 4th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^

No kidding.  I'll admit that, upon review, our pass protection sometimes broke down in somewhat sudden and unexpected ways, but there were a number of occassions where JJ just needed to throw the ball away, but refused, and then spun his way into a 8-10 yd. sack.  I was yelling at the screen for him to thow it out of bounds, and can't remember him doing so even once (not that I expected him to hear me).  I love the kid, but he needs to be less in love with his completion percentage: sometimes the perfect is the enemy of the good.  

The silver-lining is that (1) he never fumbled while being sacked, and (2) maybe this is good preparation for Alabama.  JJ has had the luxury of falling back on his athleticism and dodging defenders.  Too often in the Iowa game, he spun away from one defender into the arms of another coming from the other side of the line.  I can't imagine that Bama's d-line will be any less forgiving than Iowa's.   

Ccapilla

December 4th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^

Speculating here but is it possible that JJ was coached to take the sack every time rather than throw a 50/50 ball that might get picked. Iowa's defense is known to be good. Their secondary is excellent. It might have been a feature and not a bug, that JJ was given a little rope to see if he can create something but then eat the sack and do not risk the INT.

 

This is the very definition of a "Punting is Winning" strategy and Michigan's staff said "BET!"

south875

December 4th, 2023 at 12:16 PM ^

After witnessing the Rich Rod/Hoke years I swore that I'd never get upset again over a victory.  It's not always pretty but it sure beats losing to teams like Illinois and Purdue.

1VaBlue1

December 4th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

I've been saying for weeks that Michigan's DNA is set up to out-Iowa Iowa.  (A lot of people say this, but most of them say it after the fact...)  I was as disappointed/frustrated in the offense as anyone else in the game thread, but I also was not surprised it was so safe.  Like PSU, the only way Iowa was going to score was by turnover.  Take those out of the equation, and the game is over.

PSU's defense was a strip sack or pick 6 waiting to happen.  Iowa's defense is a possible turnover on any random play.  Take those options away, and those offenses are done.

Watching From Afar

December 4th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

Can check my other comments. There's issues here and it can't be hand waived away with "lol Iowa offense is a literal dumpster fire so they didn't need to try."

JJ dropped back to pass multiple times in that game and either ate a sack in 1.5 seconds or no single receiver could get open. It's fine that they don't pull out the reverse or a flood concept they've never shown before. But they still ran Wilson on a drag/out/hitch/whatever route and he couldn't get open. He doesn't have some hidden gear that he's waiting to drop on Alabama's DBs. That's a problem that isn't opponent dependent.

ArthurDigbySellers

December 4th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

It’s just confusing to have a generational talent like JJ at QB and then not use him to win you games. I’m not second guessing the coaches but what is even the point of recruiting a guy who can make all the throws if you’re not going to trust him?

Buffalowing Blue

December 4th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^

JJ had to make some tough throws saturday.  One was way over Lovelands head and close to be picked off. Some of them were catchable and dropped.

I think thats the first game all season that CJ was targeted that much. He had a lot of catches that kept drives going.

Other than that, where was JJ supposed to throw the ball? Michigan doesnt have that 6'3" WR that can jump up and get it and thats what hurts their passing game right now.

Goggles Paisano

December 4th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^

This wasn't a game that required the offense to be explosive.  Just take care of the football and win the game.  Simple as that and the game went as such.  Fuck all the pundits and their bitching about the offense.  I'm sure it will be opened up for Bama.  

Also, Fuck Bama!  Fuck Childers and Neuheisel for still ragging on Michigan and supporting the reprehensible decision to put Bama in.  4th and goal from the 31.  Nice job Committee - you morons.  

MGlobules

December 4th, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^

I think what we're glimpsing is that there's a clever contemporary way to play--and win--this game that doesn't (necessarily) get you points or numbers, keeps your players fresh, etc. There are a lot of counter-arguments to examine, including questions about whether a guy like JJ is (now) ready to hurl it if you go down two scores. I'd love to see a nice think piece from Seth and/or Brian that looks at this question directly; how close does Fremeau come to taking in all the nuances? I'd concede that I'm naive about this stuff, but I think (?) there are several more layers of complexity that Sherrone and Jim are pointing at.

WolverineHistorian

December 4th, 2023 at 12:27 PM ^

I went into the game with the attitude that it doesn’t have to be a beauty contest.  Just win because if you lose, you don’t have the benefit of the doubt like the SEC to still get in the playoff.

With that said, I don’t see me going back and watching this game often for nostalgic purposes other than the trophy presentation.  Iowa just does this to the game of football.  It’s just constant ugliness.

On a side note, I am far past the breaking point of having any patience with Fox.  I want the Big Ten to call it quits with Fox and go back to ABC.  They’ve always been commercial obsessed but Saturday night, they may have broken their own record.  They also went back and highlighted the big house crowd cheering for Zinter during the OSU game.  It gave me chills but those of us at home were robbed of that because any injury means another joyous ten minute commercial break for Fox.  F*ck them. 

FrankMurphy

December 4th, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^

No sane fan is unhappy with our performance on Saturday. Knowing our defense and Iowa's offense, we could have taken a knee on every single snap after the score hit 10-0 and *still* won in a shutout. Stop dignifying the ramblings of malcontents.

98xj

December 4th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^

Yes, like PSU did, we out-Iowa'd Iowa, because that's all we needed to do. We've been "sandbagging" the whole year. Time to open it up....

Amazinblu

December 4th, 2023 at 2:25 PM ^

Exactly.   

I believe there was a question about a year ago - perhaps before the start of the '22 season.  It was posed to many B1G coaches.   What was it?   What are the most important numbers, or statistics, about a game.

IIRC, Harbaugh essentially said - "Besides the final score?   Nothing."

Team 144 hasn't used many trick plays thus far in the year.  Yes, the Edwards halfback pass against OSU.  Beside that?    So, there's probably a bit more "available" that isn't on film - for future opponents to prepare for.   That's a good thing.

mgobleu

December 4th, 2023 at 12:39 PM ^

I was getting so pissed listening to Klatt going on and on about how great Iowa’s defense was playing and all the “winning with punts” and yada yada yada; at one point it was 10-0 and he emphatically said “Iowa’s defense is winning!!!”…

Meanwhile I’m like, what you’re saying is LITERALLY WHAT MICHIGAN IS DOING. They were beating Iowa’s ass at their own game and perfectly happy doing it. 

umfan83

December 4th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^

Klatt pissed me off when he said Iowa was the boa constrictor tonight.  You know his whole analogy about a boa constrictor implies that the team draws the opponent into their type of game and then eventually strikes.  Iowa posed absolutely no danger of striking on Saturday.  

I appreciate that they have to hype up both teams during the game, and Iowa genuinely impressed me with their defense, but I thought the praise was over the top.  One team was shutting out the other, and they weren't the defense being praised endlessly.

umfan83

December 4th, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^

I've never had a feeling before in an important football game where I was bored every time the opponent had the ball just waiting for the inevitable punt.  Sometimes they moved the ball a little bit but after I saw the first couple possessions, it felt like a waste of time for Iowa to even play offense.  You could say it was good practice for the defense, but they practice against better offenses every day during the week.

Perkis-Size Me

December 4th, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^

I don't think Harbaugh really cares about style points at this juncture. What he cares about is winning, and doing whatever gives his team the highest probability to do so, regardless of how it looks. 

If that result yields a 59-3 blowout then great. But if it just results a ho-hum 26-0 boring affair, I doubt he cares any more or any less. Give him the W and he's happy. 

Michigan effectively took away that one thing Iowa needed in order to have any chance of staying in this game, much less winning it. I think there will be a time/place for this team to open things up more, and if they happen to make the title game, they might as well go for broke there. But playing that way against Iowa was not the time to do it. 

Buffalowing Blue

December 4th, 2023 at 1:05 PM ^

I don't remember Michigan taking a big shot down the field.  Not sure if it was fear of Iowa intercepting or if Michigan was content with the same ole conservative playcalling.  They won by 3+ TDs and it was a shut out.  At no point did it feel like Iowa was a threat.  While some passing TDs would have been nice, I'll gladly take what we got in Indy if that means they're saving their real playbook for bama.

ShoelacesFlapp…

December 4th, 2023 at 2:04 PM ^

Some fans must think we can get to a big game, flip a switch that says "Modern offense," and we'll be fine. Why do we seem to take it as a badge of honor that this team rarely reps the concepts (play action and screens most of all) that good offenses use to make things easier on the QB and put up points? I can understand that mindset when we've paving defenses into the ground like we were last year, but not when we've had a mediocre run game all year.

rice4114

December 4th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^

Id take a screen or RB angle over "JJ gets murdered" any day. QB run game gets turned off because we dont want hits. How about QB gets neck broken on sacks gets turned off. Im half joking but im of the belief that "more plays on tape" stresses an upcoming defense than less plays. Let them try to figure out how to stop a myriad of plays in their practices.