Michigan opens at -4 against BYU
This is somewhat surprising considering how good BYU has looked even with their backup QB. Keep in mind that this is a preliminary line (probably an offshore book) and none of the major books have released their lines yet. However, the other books will likely be close to this at least if the past is a good indicator.
http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/team-page.cfm/team/michigan
Edit: The Wynn just opened at Michigan -5.
September 20th, 2015 at 3:46 PM ^
ESPN's FPI gives us a 62% chance of victory, which also seems high to me. My intuition tells me it is a coin flip, but I could be emotionally hedging due to the last few years of having my hopes crushed.
September 20th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
FPI also has Michigan and BYU back-to-back in the rankings at No. 37 and 38, which pretty much backs up the coin flip intuition.
September 20th, 2015 at 4:16 PM ^
we have 50-50 chance -s-
September 20th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^
I'm living in someone's head MGOBLUE0970
September 20th, 2015 at 11:08 PM ^
You're not in my head. You'd have to be intelligent to be in my head. You're a pathetic troll on this site whose only goal is to be inciteful rather than insightful.
You've got it wrong... since you started running your mouth at other posters last week -- in a thread which is now deleted... you've regularly called me out by user name. I haven't mentioned you once since. Troll on little brother.
For the record, this is the first time I have been on the site all weekend. I was in the mountains enjoying the great outdoors -- even missed the game.
If you think I give a flying fuck about some nameless douchebag who hides behind a keyboard to anonymously harass others, you have another thing coming.
September 21st, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^
went back and downvoted every post I ever made. I'm calling you out for being a douchebag yourself. I think it's hilarious that everytime you get on here, you go back and downvote my posts for the week. If you don't "give a flying fuck" about me, why spend the time downvoting everything I ever posted?
September 22nd, 2015 at 9:59 AM ^
If you haven't noticed, lots of people downvote you. Just not me. You have no idea how much time someone did or didn't spend voting on your posts -- you're just blindly running your pie hole even more now.
How much time did it take for you to go back and up vote all your own posts? I guarantee you spent more time doing that than any time I've spent negging you.
Besides, aren't you the internet toughguy who said that if you lost points or got banned, you'd just create another account and come back?
Why are you so butthurt about points? Ha ha ha ha!
I'm in your head. Bitch!
September 22nd, 2015 at 9:49 PM ^
Internet tough guy lol. You're the one that calls everyone douchebag and then states "Bring it". If you were as intelligent as you think you are, you would see that. Go back and read your own posts. You are one dumb piece of shit.
Also, I never stated that I would create another account if I lost points or got banned. Must be another person you neg stalk. Not me. Go read my previous posts. you've looked at them enough to neg them anyways. I rarely was negged until the pissing match with you so you're off base on that. You seem to be the one butt hurt. Your gf left you and it seems your world is falling apart. You're trying to replace the conflict you have with your gf onto me. You're transparent Bitch.
Maybe if you spent less time on here post stalking me and more time treating your GF right, she wouldn't have left you. Has it ever occured to you that all the conflict and turmoil in your life is because you don't know how to treat people. It's also sad that you portray yourself as a former Air Force veteran. How sad your life must be to add stolen valor to your list of insecurities.
May your childish and hate filled posts begin below. Commence Douchebag.
September 23rd, 2015 at 12:37 AM ^
The only stolen valor here is you being a disgrace to the Corps. I'm ashamed for this country you wore this nation's uniform. I served with a lot of good Marines on joint assignments. You are an embarrassment to those Marines.
Keep crying about points.
Keep crying about whom is calling who a douchebag.
No, I'm not going to go and read your posts; I don't have the time or interest.
Like I said, you have no idea who is reading your history or how much time they are spending on your history. Every accusation you make is something you are doing yourself. I'm just pointing out your hypocrisy.
You've clearly spent more time reading my posts than I have yours. I'm still in your head!!! And laughing my ass off about it!
September 23rd, 2015 at 8:54 AM ^
my posts, how would you know about me being in the Corps, calling you a douchebag, points, accusations. If you're not reading my posts, how is it possible you can refer to things I've posted. You're up at midnight waiting for me to post so you can respond. If thats not being in someones head, I don't know what its? lol
It appears I'm not the only one you have conflict with in the forum. I've noticed you have conflict with almost anyone who doesn't share your beliefs. Your favorite words are, douchebag, fuck, butthurt and bitch. Watch, if you post a response to this, it means you couldn't wait to get the last word in (childish) and you are also a control freak. Probably why your woman left ya. I guess you won't be marrying her and she won't be having any kids with you like you wanted. Seek help. It wouldn't surprise me that you was adsep'd from the AF. you are pretty mental. I'll give ya that.
Waiting for the response, child
September 23rd, 2015 at 10:30 AM ^
I'll quit replying when you answer my questions.
Which you don't. Instead you reply with:
- rubbish about my GF
- deny your record of being a troll on the site
- run your mouth about how much time someone is looking at your posts when you are in my history more than I am in yours
- attack my service record
- tell me to kill myself
...and sprinkle bunch of ad hominems throughout.
I don't have to get in the last word. That's your style -- other posters have called you out for that very thing. Instead of pointing your finger, you need to look in the mirror internet tough guy.
When you address your behavior on this site, I'll stop replying. You can have the last word if that's so important to you -- if you need to overcompensate for shortcomings in such a manner.
September 23rd, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^
But you contradict yourself with your 1st and last sentence. Not only that but what questions have you asked? All I read and see is you going on the offensive and attack with comments about douchebag, bitch and you even stated "Bring It." I don't ever remember those being presented in question form. But thank you anyways. Have a good day. xoxoxoxox
September 20th, 2015 at 5:20 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 5:56 PM ^
I have never heard this. You have a source or YT video or article or something? Genuinely interested. I'd imagine that, if true, the difference couldn't be significant.
September 20th, 2015 at 6:39 PM ^
There have been a bunch of studies on this but one example is with a penny:
September 20th, 2015 at 7:07 PM ^
to be fair, this talks about a coin spin - not a toss. Still interesting though.
September 20th, 2015 at 4:25 PM ^
FWIW,
FPI had Ole Miss as a favorite against Bama last night. About the only ranking that had that.
September 20th, 2015 at 5:44 PM ^
He actually had Ole Miss at #3 and Bama at #1 last night I believe (now at 1 and 2 respectively). His current ranks also pass the 'gut check' a bit as Oregon, MSU, and UCLA are both in a more sensible 15-25 range (though Stanford at #11 seems like a glitch in the matrix - the issue with all early season rankings)
September 20th, 2015 at 8:59 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:54 PM ^
Not sure I follow logic here. It would back up coin flip if it were a neutral site, but it's in the Big House so it would support Michigan being a favorite. 4 points for homefield makes sense.
September 21st, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 5:26 PM ^
they've been in highly competitive games against teams ranked #18 (UCLA), #33 (Boise), & #34 (Nebraska) with two of them on the road.
Utah, OTOH, has played Utah State (W 24-14) & Fresno State (W 45-24).
BYU has demonstrated it's a "good" team against "good" competition. We don't know that about Utah yet.
BTW, -4 means Michigan is the favorite. Taking the points means taking Utah.
September 20th, 2015 at 7:35 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 9:15 PM ^
It will be interesting to see who starts at QB for Oregon and Utah, since both teams played their backups yesterday. If only one team's starter plays, that would be quite an advantage.
September 21st, 2015 at 11:49 AM ^
Agree, BYU seems like a coin flip. OTOH, FPI has us as dogs to Penn State (44% chance of victory), which seems wrong to me.
September 20th, 2015 at 3:50 PM ^
After three weeks of last-minute slugfests, BYU might be a little drained emotionally. We may be catching them at a good time.
September 20th, 2015 at 5:01 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 3:52 PM ^
Massey has this as close it could possibly be, BYU 24.78 to Michigan 24.77
September 20th, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^
How does one get a score of 24.77?
September 20th, 2015 at 4:14 PM ^
One uses Ken Pomeroy as one's scorekeeper?
September 20th, 2015 at 3:53 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
We're favored by four points. Michigan is -4 and BYU is +4.
If you bet Michigan, you're not just betting on us to win the game; you're betting that we will win by more than four. So you're "giving" four points as a Michigan win by 3, 2 or 1 would cause you to lose the bet.
September 20th, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
September 21st, 2015 at 4:24 AM ^
In turn, you can bet the favorite to win straight up without giving any points, but you'd only receive a fraction of the amount you'd get laying the points. This week wouldn't be a smart week to do that with Michigan because of the small line. But last week would've been a perfect example to play them straight up because everyone was confident they'd win but uncertain it'd be by 34 points.
September 20th, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^
Yes. Basically, the spread is set at the point at which they think they'll get about an equal amount of betting. Without it, it'd be too easy. Everyone would bet Michigan to beat UNLV straight-up, but when the spread was 34 points, it was a much closer call, and we did not end up covering.
September 20th, 2015 at 4:11 PM ^
Vegas' goal is to encourage an equal amount of betting on each side of the line. They take a cut regardless, so 50% of the money on each side of the line minimizes their risk and maximizes their expected value.
Many times, you will see a line "move," which is essentially Vegas updating their line due to market corrections so that Vegas always wins.
September 21st, 2015 at 1:44 AM ^
also tells you where money is being bet. If the line moves to UM -3, then more money is being placed on BYU to cover the -4. If the line moves to UM -5, more money is being placed on UM to cover the -4.
September 20th, 2015 at 10:06 PM ^
Good explanation. I'd add that the "underdog" is therefore "getting" points because by betting the underdog, in this case BYU at +4, they can lose by 1,2 or 3 points and you still win the bet (beating the spread). If they lose by 4 it's called a "push" and no one wins the bet (except for the bookie who correctly predicted the margin).
September 20th, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
The team with the minus sign is favored. "Michigan -4 against BYU" roughly translates to "Michigan's points - 4 = BYU's points."
September 20th, 2015 at 4:00 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:03 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:21 PM ^
Even if BYU had lost both of those games, BYU has played one of the toughest schedules in the nation to date (at Nebraska, Boise St, at UCLA) and showed they can compete at high level. Most computer models have them ranked just outside of the top 25. I think based on perfomance to date, BYU right now is one of the 5 toughest games on our schedule (OSU, MSU, Northwestern, BYU, @Utah).
September 20th, 2015 at 4:35 PM ^
September 20th, 2015 at 4:48 PM ^
Decided to watch/DVR the UCLA/BYU game and was very impressed by BYU in general. Their run game isn't great but by spreading things out and throwing lots of passes, they were able to open up some running lanes. Remind me a lot of Northwestern, which has given us a bunch of trouble in the past.
On defense, Rudock won't get away with sloppy throws - they will be intercepted. I think Harbaugh's version of manball/power will work though.