Michigan Monday: corn futures are down

Submitted by Hotel Putingrad on November 15th, 2022 at 6:46 PM

Didn't see it posted yet, so here you go: https://buckeyehuddle.com/2022/11/14/michigan-monday-corn-futures-down/

A rather perfunctory recap of the Nebraska game with the same prevailing thought we all have: Michigan is good, but we won't know how good exactly until November 26th. Some highlights:

Offense

But the inability to connect downfield isn’t just on McCarthy. We’ve said here for weeks that it’s a two-way street between the QB accuracy and the receivers’ ability to get open or make 50/50 catches. Actually, right now, it’s not even a two-way street. It’s two one-way streets that have yet to intersect. 

Defense 

Watching Michigan’s defense this season has not been the most informative learning experience. You feel like you have a pretty good idea of how good they are, just like with the Ohio State defense, but the problem with both teams is that every opponent they have faced this season looks like an open mic night for offenses.

“Coming up to the stage tonight is an offense from Lincoln, Nebraska. Give it up for the Huskers.”

 

 

VintageRandy

November 15th, 2022 at 6:53 PM ^

Reasonable takes again from Gerdeman. The sister piece over at 11W downgraded the Michigan threat level from Severe to High, but the consensus among Buckeye message board cretins is that they’ll demolish us.

JHumich

November 15th, 2022 at 10:25 PM ^

And punched in the mouth
And punched in the mouth
And helmeted in the dong
And run over by a truck
And punched in the mouth again
And paved by a road grader
And crushed by a steamroller
And punched in the mouth again

Ohio thinks they're really tough now. Just think how much more demoralizing that'll make it when they find out they're not.

Buy Bushwood

November 15th, 2022 at 7:53 PM ^

I don't know.  I don't feel like Gerdeman knows this Michigan team except in the context of his own expectations.  He seems to think we're trying to hit big shots and that we aren't getting them, running game included.  That all we can do is grind because we can't hit big shots.  But to me, the grinding is very much by design.  If we wanted big shots in the running game, they'd go to the QB run package that gouged the hell out of Penn State.  He also states that the lack of deep passing success has led to Corum being less productive on the ground as teams don't have to fear our deep game.  That's not what I've seen on the offense.  I've seen very little need to stretch the field when games are over in the 3rd quarter and the running game cannot be stopped, and therefore very little attempt to stretch the field.

Also, his notion that we don't get sacks outside of obvious passing downs, and that we'd better fix that if we plan to stop Stroud.  I think the plan to stop Stroud is to keep receivers in front of us, tackle hard, and then prey on OSU's lack of a physical running game in the red zone.  We're not going to go all out to sack Stroud.  We're going to make him work long and hard to get down the field and make their offense hold up physically and make touchdowns.   

buddha

November 15th, 2022 at 8:45 PM ^

I agree. I won’t pretend to know much about scheme and the X’s and O’s, but I’ve enjoyed listening to MMQB with Devin and Sam. Their most recent episode gave me (possibly false) hope. Long story short: They believe we already have a really strong short and intermediate passing game, good play action, as well as a solid RPO. They think we are basically “practicing” in game-time situations the deep pass because we are “good” with many other passing concepts.


I think Jim is intentionally making Day’s and Knowle’s jobs brutal. He’s putting a ton of concepts on film that they’re gonna have to plan for…and if we can hit just one or two deep passes against Illinois, I don’t see any way the OSU D can stop us…turns into Stroud v. UM.

Midukman

November 16th, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^

Hitting deep ball after deep bal would be nice, but 7 yard outs and 4 yd runs are what’s taking a toll on opposing defenses. It’s not like we can’t throw, it’s that we don’t throw deep well. What if we actually hit a couple deep balls against OSU and then pound the piss out of them in the trenches. Eventually something’s gotta a connect. 

unWavering

November 15th, 2022 at 7:05 PM ^

We also have the most relevant data point of 42-27. 

Osu is largely the same team as last year with an upgrade on defense. Just how much of one remains to be seen.

Michigan has an improved offense vs last year, and also an improved defense by most metrics.

How it all adds up in Columbus remains to be seen but there's not a lot of reason to think 62-39 or any previous matchup besides 2021 is all that relevant 

VintageRandy

November 15th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^

Well 62-39 is what happened the last time we played in Columbus, and if the question is why isn’t Ohio State critiqued like Michigan is then I think you have to admit that past results play a factor. I agree with you that the predictive value of past results isn’t strong, but the narrative value is incredibly strong. 

Papabearblue2

November 15th, 2022 at 10:21 PM ^

I think its going to come down to intensity.

I think those OSU players forgot what that game was really like, (Don Browns defenses didn't help). None of them played against a Michigan team they didn't ultimately destroy. Plus, covid year.

I think if OSU has learned to put on big boy rivalry-hate pants then Michigan is going to have a handful.

If Day doesnt know how to make these guys respect the rivalry, well, I think we'll probably see a repeat of last year.

RobM_24

November 15th, 2022 at 9:45 PM ^

I'm guessing that all the criticisms of our passing game and their run defense and everything else probably don't really matter and The Game will be determined by turnover margin and a few huge penalties or breaks to keep drives alive. You just hope those things go your way on that day. We can run it. They can pass it. We both have, at-worst, competent defenses. We play in their stadium. At this point, it's just time to see what plays out. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 15th, 2022 at 9:58 PM ^

I do enjoy reading his MM write-ups more often than not. He doesn’t write like an 11W slappy who just completely writes off Michigan from Day 1, and he’s usually good for a great one liner or two in every piece (He wrote a line after the Hawaii or UConn game about how watching that was akin to paying to watch rich people hunt other humans for sport, and I got a really good laugh out of it), but what I feel like I’ve noticed since last year is the following trend.

1) He’s usually complimentary at the start of the year, almost overly so, when Michigan is beating up on CSU, WMU or UConn, but it has a feel of “Aww look at you guys beating up on tomato cans, that’s adorable.” tone to it. Like he’s just waiting for the October implosion that we were all conditioned to wait for for so many years.

2) Then, when Michigan doesn’t start losing and looks to be on the path to set up a winner take all game in the last weekend in November, his writing takes on a slightly more annoyed tone, like he’s wondering why that proverbial shoe hasn’t dropped yet.

flashOverride

November 16th, 2022 at 1:36 PM ^

Kinda reminds me of Herbstreit*. He would throw Michigan a bone or two in terms of compliments when he knew they looked decent but were still going to get destroyed by Ohio State. Has been a lot bitchier about them since last year.

*Though I do also remember the Herbstreit of the '90s, who used to always pick Michigan on College GameDay, but of course that was back when Michigan owned Cooper

mGrowOld

November 15th, 2022 at 7:13 PM ^

Money quote:

The Wolverines getting healthy on offense won’t win them a national title this year, but it might be enough to get them past Ohio State.

They’re getting worried.  They may not admit it, but they are.
 

Midukman

November 16th, 2022 at 8:38 AM ^

I’d be worried as well and am worried about OSU. OSU fans seem to discount what we wanna do and think our physicality won’t be an issue. That’s as crazy as discounting Harrison Jr and saying he won’t go off against us. The thought of that guy matching up with our secondary scares the shit out of me. Hopefully at the half we’ve had the ball for around 20 minutes and it won’t matter. 

BoFlex

November 15th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^

I was listening to a sports radio show the other day, and they brought up a good point that Ohio State may likely abandon the run from this point onwards due to a lack of healthy running backs. Looking at this preseason roster to now, I can definitely see this being true.

Not only have their top-2 RBs in Williams and Henderson been persistently injured and missed several games each, the depth behind them is also banged up:

  1. Miyan Williams - Injured
  2. Treyveon Henderson - Injured
  3. Evan Pryor - Torn ACL
  4. Dallen Hayden - Healthy
  5. TC Caffey - "Out-for-Season"

With only 1 healthy RB in true freshman Hayden, they've had to rely on converted LB and WR to shore up the depth chart.

It is no secret that Ohio State was going to lean on their passing attack, but it is possible they won't even scheme to have a credible run game for the rest of the regular season.

Michigan's secondary will have to be on their A-game November 26th.

Humen

November 15th, 2022 at 7:22 PM ^

I laughed at Rutgers being marked as (Rivalry Game)

It’s fair to criticize the schedule, but we can only play the teams on the schedule