Michigan 35.5 over ECU; Other Opening-Week Odds
I know very little about Nebraska or Minnesota, but that line surprises me anyway.
Surprised by that.
Minnesota doesn't have the wow factor, but they have a system and some guys who are pretty good. Brevyn Spann-Ford at TE and Nubin at Safety are All-Conference types while I don't think Nebraska really has any top level guys like that.
Minnesota's OL has to replace some guys, they lost Ibrahim, and are starting a new QB. All that being said, Nebraska is basically the hopes of Jeff Sims and the assumption that what Rhule did at Baylor is repeatable.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^
Yeah, and even Minnesota's QB switch isn't that crazy because Morgan was hurt so often that their new guy played in a half-dozen games. So he's had some game-time experience.
Matt Rhule is a good coach but what happened at Baylor was a bit of fool's gold. They went 1-11 that first year but were better talent-wise than the record and you saw that in his second year when they went 7-6 with a lot of the same pieces back. But 2019 was a year not unlike a couple of other recent 1-hit wonders where they went 5-2 in 1-score games (including against 3-9 Rice) and beat exactly 1 team that finished ranked all year (Texas at #25) - their 3 losses were twice to OU and once to Georgia. So maybe he figures it out at Nebraska but it probably isn't going to be in his first game of the year.
Tanner Morgan is gone for Minnesota and they have to replace all 3 interior OL, including their All American Center that went in the 2nd round of the draft this year.
Nebraska got a transfer QB in (Jeff Sims from Georgia Tech). He was a decent player at Tech and was a top 300 dual threat QB recruit and has played in 25 few games for Tech as well over the last 3 years. has over 600 career pass attempts and nearly 300 rush attempts and that's even with his 2022 season getting cut short by a foot injury. He could be an interesting player this year.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
Minnesota no longer has Mohamed Ibrahim (Detroit Lions), a much more significant loss than Tanner Morgan. Morgan had one season, 2019, where he went off, but after that, he was pretty much below average.
Vegas Insider has the opening line as Nebraska -8, but that was almost certainly a typo. The line is currently Minnesota -7.5. It is basically impossible for a line to move that much before the season has even started.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
Yep. Game is in Minneapolis too.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
Ok now that makes sense. Seems most likely that it was supposed to be Nebraska +8, not -8...
August 1st, 2023 at 10:44 AM ^
Yeah, Nebraska getting a ton of love basically because of Matt Rhule being the head coach, apparently. Because at least with Minnesota you know what they're going to look like and have a system in place.
Nobody going to mention the YTM vs NTM bowl? What are we even doing here?
Beers I'll drink on September 2:
O/U 11.5
August 1st, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
Over
August 1st, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
those are rookie numbers my friend
August 2nd, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
You gotta pump those numbers up. I myself drink about 15 beers each college football Saturday. I want to. That's not why I do it. I do it cause I freaking need to.
I’ll take the over as long as you keep in mind, that you can’t drink all day unless you start in the morning.
Personally, I wouldn't touch this (I don't bet anyway). Not because I don't think Michigan will be prepared or because ECU is a threat, but just because you never really know with these early games.
Michigan could go into halftime with a 28-point lead or more, then pull the starters after one or two series and ground and pound the whole second half.
Meanwhile, ECU will probably keep their starters in for most of the game against our 2nd or 3rd string defense.
Who is going to be coaching on the sidelines instead of Harbaugh?
Michigan could win by 50. They could also win by only 30.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
I agree 100%.... the coaching staff isn't going to show much of the playbook in a blowout non-conf. game ... The most likely way the score gets run up is if we're just running down their throat and they can't stop us. Even then, there would likely be a lot of reserve players in the game late and the defense is vulnerable to getting gashed for a couple big plays, giving up points in garbage time.
August 1st, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
The most likely way the score gets run up is if we're just running down their throat and they can't stop us.
Like against Ohio State, right?
Donovan, on your long run...... "Which one?"
August 1st, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
Or if UM has a massive turnover advantage...that will lead to a lopsided score.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
ECU was 19th in run defense last year and they get most of their D line back so I completely agree. We'll win comfortably but it won't be 2021 NIU or Hawaii last year.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:18 AM ^
Yeah, I could see this going not unlike the MTSU game a couple years ago (sans any QB injury) where UM is up comfortably the entire game but ECU hangs around a bit on the scoreboard.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
Who is going to be coaching on the sidelines instead of Harbaugh?
This is the biggest thing for me. Whoever is coaching, it'll be their first game doing so. We're likely to be a little less organized than if Harbaugh was on the sidelines, and my guess is that the coach is going to be very conservative--not that Harbaugh would necessarily put him on a short-leash, but nobody wants to be the guy that screws something up by trying to be too cute, or gets someone hurt by leaving starters in too long, etc.
Now we could certainly cover, but all that, plus our general tendency to come out of the gate sluggish, would make me think ECU with the points is more likely.
August 1st, 2023 at 12:23 PM ^
That’s why you bet the first half spread.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^
I would take Minny and the points all day.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
I normally like to wait a few weeks before I start placing bets. I know there are plenty of advance stats that predict these early season games. I just prefer to see how this season starts out with its own trends before diving in and laying out money...
August 1st, 2023 at 12:21 PM ^
I don't bet at all, but if I did, this would be the path I would take. I just don't know how anyone can confidently predict how these teams are going to perform without any games played.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^
The Nebraska line surprises me. I guess I figured Nebraska football would continue to be bad for at least another season.
EDIT: What mp2 & Watching From Afar wrote.
August 1st, 2023 at 10:41 AM ^
Take the under. Never trust you’ll get a fair fight when Pirates are involved.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
ECU, however, is a bunch of rookie pirates. They still have all their eyes and limbs. Just don't take away their p - it makes them very angry.
It makes then irate.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
Nebraska 8.0 over Minnesota
How is this possible? Minny was pretty good last year, and Nebraska was... not. Did Minny lose a lot of players? Hard to see even equal talent being more than touchdown favorite with a new coach/system in the first game for Nebraska.
EDIT: I see others beat me to the punch. I confess I didn't read any other comments before making mine.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:33 AM ^
I could see Michigan winning by 30-35 points so under on the current point spread. If Sparty were to beat CMU, it would be by only a few points so under looks good there. A closer than 8 point margin with NE @ Minny. Could be a you pick 'em type game. Buckeyes will roll, no matter what, probably over on that one. Hard to say what the new Penn State QB will look like, could be a closer game than what Vegas thinks.
The fun is just starting. Football is in the air. Enjoy summer while it lasts.
August 1st, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
honestly I’d take ECU. Michigan seems happy to get a 20 point lead and chill out. i see a 42-17 win where it’s 35-7 in the third then we coast for 1.5 quarters
August 1st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
I can see this exact scenario playing out, although I'd guess it won't quite be "chilling out" for 1.5 quarters, but instead it's Warren/Orji/Tuttle/Denegal handing off to Dunlap/Stokes/Cabana behind 3rd-string OLs.
August 1st, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^
Interesting slate of games.
Besides Michigan - the two other games of interest will be..: LSU at FSU, and Nebraska at Minny.
All of the B1G games noted will have a common characteristic - QB play.
The two other games of i’ll track afterwards and not included in the original list are: Florida at Utah and Colorado at TCU.
CMU will averaging about 21 per game vs MAC schools. That .5 is bait but in this case it may be worth taking. There are probably 6 MAC schools that could cover that spread. MSU should be able to fumble their way to a cover. If they dont cover a 3 win season could be in their future.
Ohio State covering against Indiana is a solid pick. Indiana will also score about 21 ppg this season which means OSU could have that covered by half time. Indiana's defense is one of the worst in the power 5.
Minnesota has a solid coach that doesnt have a record of getting beat badly at home. The best money would probably take them straight up. If its competitive they have a good chance of winning outright.
Take TCU under -21 all day every day. There are so many holes on that Colorado roster.
Save your money for week 2 after you have some results to go on.
It will be interesting to see where Colorado is at the end of the season.
It’s more curiosity on my part - there’s no horse in the race for me.
My perspective is - Coach Prime is entertaining and colorful. But, I’m not sold on his coaching abilities - especially, if his talent level is “lower” than his opponents.
His schtick would be great in basketball. Get two key players that are ball dominate and win. Football is not that.
Agreed. At Jackson State he had low P5 talent - FBS - and, played against FCS schools.
Again, I’m not knocking him - I just think the Jury’s out for his coaching abilities.
LSU is basically even against FSU. I know FSU is getting better and played LSU close last year but I'd take that and the points. Am I missing something about either LSU or FSU here?
August 2nd, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
I don’t buy the fsu hype any more than I bought the ATM hype last season.
LFG CMU, Indiana and West Virginia
Curious to see that LSU-FSU game. Football is coming!!
I’m not a Brian Kelly fan - but, he knows how to coach.
How special is Benjamin Hall? That's what the final margin should come down to in Michigan vs. ECU, more or less.
August 2nd, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
I know he’s 230lbs which accounts for a late in the game battering ram.
August 2nd, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
I could see Penn state losing in week 1. Just a gut feeling. I see Minnesota vs Nebraska as a toss up.