Michigan at #13 in CFP, move up 2 spots
Title says it all. Top 7 didn’t change, same order. Oklahoma only moved up 1 spot which was cool to see.
Only Florida at 11 and Wisconsin at 12 are above UM with 2 losses.
I like hypotheticals and this is a message board, so what the heck. Anybody think UM has any shot at the top 4 even if they win out? Seems like an OSU blowout this weekend, and UM a convincing win over them would bump them pretty high. Not saying high enough, but worth the debate. Thoughts?
November 20th, 2019 at 12:36 AM ^
OU lost to Kansas St.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:52 AM ^
Thanks....it was getting late! I made the correction.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:14 PM ^
This list sounds rather probable. The last one is a tall order but we're at home so who knows.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:12 PM ^
I think five thirty eight had it at 3%, so you're not far off
November 19th, 2019 at 10:55 PM ^
I think we'd have to beat OSU by 30+ to have anything of a shot (and crush Indiana this week.) We need to jump FOUR conference teams, two of which we've lost to, and one of which we won't play.
So it goes:
OSU beats Penn St.
Minny wins out (thus handing Wisconsin a loss).
We annihilate OSU.
OSU beats Minny unimpressively but by enough to drop Minny below us without raising OSU past us.
And then all of the other crazy stuff you talk about to boot. Merely beating OSU by even two touchdowns at home isn't going to vault us from the 10-12 range we'd enter next week at over OSU, or certainly not enough to keep us above them with the boost they'd get from winning the conference championship game. Winning 5 in a row by 30+ would allow the Committee to consider us in the "best team right now" discussion, but we'd need serious style points to overcome two losses and no division title.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:19 PM ^
We would jump PSU and Minnesota just by them losing to OSU, and Wisconsin by us beating OSU. A win over a top 2 team in the final week of the season would be the best win by any Big Ten team all year.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:12 AM ^
PSU will always be ahead of us with 2 losses, unless you think they will lose to Rutgers. The committee favors head to head wins. This late in the season, WI is no longer better than us but still ranked a head of us.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:47 AM ^
PSU is ranked over Minnesota and they have the same record. And it was only a week ago that Minnesota beat them.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:36 PM ^
A two loss non-division winner (and we were mathematically eliminated with OSU's win over Rutgers) is not going to make the playoff.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:47 PM ^
I think we were actually eliminated because of Penn State's win, not OSU's
November 19th, 2019 at 9:09 PM ^
We needed PSU to finish with 3 losses and OSU 2. IU actually had a chance until they lost a close one last weekend @PSU.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:44 AM ^
We needed PSU to finish with 3 losses and OSU 2.
This is mathematically impossible at the point. A 3-loss PSU means OSU is no worse than a single loss. A two loss OSU means Penn State will have finished no worse than 2 losses in conference.
Michigan has been eliminated from B1G Championship contention for 2019, but that doesn't mean we don't have plenty to play for.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:29 PM ^
True. A 2-loss conference champion will still receive consideration, but a 2-loss NON-champion will not make it. Wisconsin, however, can win out and be a 2-loss conference champion and they will be in the mix. Not saying they'll get in, but they'll be considered if they get wins over Minniesoda & OSU/PSU plus their win over Michigan. This could get them closer to 6, but would need a lot of help elsewhere to get to 4.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:44 PM ^
I think we overplay the conference champ thing. Has it really helped anyone? Maybe Washington the year they got #4. PSU got left out as a champ. I can give you a few examples where the none champ was playing better and frankly committee members thought that team was better than the “x” conference champ. (OSU and Bama).
November 20th, 2019 at 4:04 PM ^
Those were 1-loss non-champions. A 2-loss non-champion has no chance unless/until the field is expanded.
November 19th, 2019 at 10:15 PM ^
I tend to agree. Even in the idealized scenario where it's Mich vs. Pac12 2-loss champ, it would take the committee valuing SoS over conference title in a way we've never seen.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:38 PM ^
Here is the path I see.
LSU - Wins Out, clear #1
OSU - hammers PSU, UM beats them solidly. OSU beats Wisconsin/Minnesota, they get in.
Clemson - Like to say lose, but weak schedule so say in.
Georgia - Loses to LSU at end.
Bama - Loses to Auburn without Tua. Or looks really ugly Winning.
Oregon/Utah - One needs to lose the next 2 weeks. Turnaround and beat other in PAC 12 CG. Thus 2 loss team wins.
Oklahoma - Loses a game somewhere. No other Big 12 team really high.
This would leave Georgia, Oregon/Utah winner, Bama, Michigan, and whoever wins Big 12, Florida fighting for 1 spot. Michigan (maybe Florida) would be the only team riding the momentum of not losing in last 5 weeks. But beating OSU solidly would bump us past Florida. Not saying it would come out in our favor. But we would all watch that selection Sunday pretty close. UM would get some talk.
I think Oregon/Utah losing before they play is the hardest to happen. The rest doesn’t seem that far fetched.
Above scenario has it LSU, Clemson, OSU, and Michigan (beating out the teams above)
November 20th, 2019 at 1:37 AM ^
I just posted the identical thing above. Apologize for not scrolling down.
You forget about Baylor who would possibly finish ahead of a 2-loss Michigan if they win out. The B12 needs a two loss champ like the PAC12 does. Much more likely for the B12 though since Baylor plays Texas this weekend (and is only favored by 5.5) and OU still has OSU.
Agree that the PAC12 scenario is the most unlikely by far. Oregon and Utah have escaped several close games and that probably doomed the chances of a miracle for Michigan because both have easy remaining schedules.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:39 PM ^
The bowl picture doesn't matter anymore. Especially if key players sit out to avoid injury like last year.
It's all about O$U now.
that's our super bowl. . .
November 19th, 2019 at 8:56 PM ^
Do we have any likely candidates that would sit this bowl out?
I feel like we don’t have any ‘locks’ in the top-10, and no flier-type guys... I feel like everyone would have something to prove, even Shea.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:06 PM ^
I'd like to think everyone would play, but we had a goddamn captain sit out last year so who the fuck knows?
I don't like players sitting out bowl games, although I understand why. But bowl games are important for momentum, recruiting, and the media narrative.
You signed up to play and got a scholarship to do it. Play the damn games. All of them.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:23 PM ^
I could see DPJ sitting. Maybe Black given his injury history.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:54 PM ^
After Higdon sat out, I’m not sure how you could predict it in the future. If he’s a gauge, any good but not great fringe NFL talent might sit out.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:01 PM ^
Higdon was a bit banged up in addition to eying the draft. Same for Gary.
I don't think we'll have many players out for the bowl game unless there are injuries.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:50 AM ^
If we win out and make the Rose Bowl, I think players would suit up for that. Any other bowl, and I could see them sitting out or only playing a handful of plays.
To be honest, if we're not in the Rose Bowl, I'd rather see the young guys get game experience and let whatever happens happen.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:40 PM ^
Not a chance, with two losses and no conference CG win. I would be thrilled if our boys won out and came home with a Rose Bowl victory. Or even if they just managed to get the OSU monkey off their backs.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:40 PM ^
Well, first we have to beat OSU, and then...
...dammit, couldn't get past step one.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:13 PM ^
Try harder.
November 20th, 2019 at 7:54 AM ^
First we have to beat Indiana....
November 19th, 2019 at 8:43 PM ^
Options will narrow after this weekend, but if Ohio State beats Penn State and Michigan wins out and then Ohio State beats the Minnesota/Wisconsin winner, Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl as I’d believe they’d end up around 7 or 8 and the highest remaining B1G team.
If Michigan drops Indiana or Ohio State, Holiday Bowl vs. USC or Washington.
Now, it gets more interesting if let’s say Penn State wins and Wisconsin beats Minnesota and then Penn State in the B1G Championship. Then, you’d have a 2-loss Wisky champ and PSU, Michigan, and OSU all with 2 losses. My guess is Wisky would go to the Rose Bowl and Michigan could end up in the Citrus vs Auburn?
November 19th, 2019 at 8:48 PM ^
Zero chance M makes the top 4 in any scenario. The Wisconsin loss was too big.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:50 PM ^
Who has ablalama played?? Frustrating
November 19th, 2019 at 9:10 PM ^
Absolutely nobody. The only team they did play that was any good kicked their ass. And now they lost their starting QB, long expected to be the first pick in the draft for the year. Any other school from any other conference is going to drop lower than 5 if that happened.
I said it last week and this weeks ranking just proves my point. The committee WANTS three SEC teams in there. LSU, Georgia and Alabama and they will gig the system to make it happen.
Michigan has 0.0 chances of getting in. Sorry all.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:50 PM ^
Never ever will 3 teams from same conference make it in the current 4 team structure. I would say UM is like 3%. To say 0.0% is just off. UM has a way better chance than 3 teams from same conference. Need a few upsets this week though. And UM needs to keep winning by 17+.
Personally I think you get to the end. Most members throwout conference junk and just say, who do I think the 4 best teams are right now if they play. This is why Bama gets lots of love every year, this year might be different with Tua and literally 0 quality wins.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:53 PM ^
It's a moot point if they lose to auburn. You could probably make a good argument that they don't deserve to be in even if they do beat auburn, but it seems kinda harsh to penalize them for being in the same division as lsu, especially when we know they're very likely still one of the four best teams in the country
November 19th, 2019 at 8:56 PM ^
Man, Auburn's week 1 win over Oregon must have been magical given the way it's kept Auburn and Florida in the top-15.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^
Looks like as of now Michigan-Indiana will be the Samsung 4K game of the week. So that’s kinda cool.
November 19th, 2019 at 8:57 PM ^
Now we just need to expand the playoffs to 13 teams.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:53 PM ^
8 would do the trick. If UM can’t beat Indiana and OSU and fall a 3rd time they wouldn’t deserve it. They beat OSU gotta think that gets them top 8 once these other teams lose due to process of elimination.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:03 PM ^
Florida and Wisconsin shouldn’t be higher than Michigan
November 19th, 2019 at 9:29 PM ^
So Wisconsin beat Michigan, but Michigan should be ranked higher. Even though their records are the same.
Conversely, if UM beats OSU but OSU wins out, Michigan goes to the Rose Bowl because they will be the highest ranked Big Ten team.
Higher ranked at 10-2 than a 12-1 OSU. Even with losses to PSU and Wisky, 2 teams OSU would have beaten. Even though UM didn't win its division or conference. And OSU did.
Just trying to follow the logic here.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:57 PM ^
So if Michigan beats OSU should Michigan be ranked higher. I think the point is how do the teams look today. That’s why the do the rankings every week right? I would say at this moment Michigan does look like the better team than Wisconsin or Florida.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:06 PM ^
Yes, I agree that how a team looks today is important. Finishing strong is meaningful. However, it doesn't mean that the resume is wiped clean. What happened earlier in the season is also important. When the rankings are done each week, both issues are considered and a conclusion is reached.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:57 PM ^
Why better than Florida? They've only lost to two Top 5 teams. They also have a win against Auburn and recently destroyed Missouri. I'd say that Michigan and Florida are pretty comparable...but Florida has the edge at this point.
I know.....why don't they settle it in a bowl game!
November 19th, 2019 at 10:03 PM ^
My point is all based on resume. How many top 25 wins and who are your losses to.
Michigan has 2 top 25 wins and 2 top 25 Ls
Wisconsin has 2 top 25 wins (H2H over Mich), 1 top 25 L, and then a bad loss to Illini. That L has to matter.
Florida has 1 top 25 W and 2 top 25 Ls. Florida has also played 2 FCS teams.
The rest of what you said honestly doesn’t make sense to me. You’re just throwing out some random hypothetical. I’m talking about rankings based on resume which changes weekly cause teams win and lose.
November 19th, 2019 at 11:08 PM ^
I think folks are thinking that if Michigan is fortunate enough to beat Ohio State, Ohio State would win the rest and go to the CFP, and Michigan would perhaps go to the Rose Bowl.
November 19th, 2019 at 9:03 PM ^
I’m really worried about Indiana. That game smells so bad
November 19th, 2019 at 9:03 PM ^
Harbaugh playoff. This team is clicking at the right time and has the potential to beat anyone in the country. Go Blue!
November 19th, 2019 at 9:04 PM ^
Insert Lloyd Christmas "so you're saying there's a chance gif"
Realistically our best path would involve time travel and a different outcome to the PSU game. Short of that I think it's wait until next year time again.
November 20th, 2019 at 8:35 AM ^
Next season we will beat PSU at home but will probably lose to OSU on the road. I think we'll have to wait until 2021. My count down clock has been started for the 2021 season.