To Make The CFP: Schedule a Tough Team Or a Doormat Team? Gerry DiNardo And That Coach Talk About It (BTN video)
There's now talk of who Michigan should schedule now that UCLA has been dropped from future schedules. a tough team, or maybe doormats? And I'm thinking the college playoff committee has to be taken into account in deciding who to play. How they make choices HAS to be taken into account. At least I think it does.
The College Football Playoff selection process is talked about in this video, what really happens in choosing the Top 4 teams that get in. We may not like it that it is the way it is, and most if not all people don't like it. But it is thus.
I used to be a person that said the schedule should be tough from top to bottom, and you have to earn your way into the playoffs that way. It being any other way really bothered my sense of right and wrong. But seeing what happened in 2014, when TCU was 11-1, that one loss being a very close loss in a rivalry game, that had a very questionable call from a ref that changed the game, and because of that loss TCU didn't get in. And that TCU ended up playing #9 Ole Miss in a Bowl Game that year, and absolutely dominating them 42-3--and then, in 2016, Washington got in to the Top 4, when both Penn St and Michigan were probably better teams---these things made me change my mind.
So should Michigan keep scheduling tough teams to play outside of the BIG10 Conference? Or should that take on doormat teams, and only schedule them AT HOME, in Ann Arbor?
Watch and think about it:
October 28th, 2019 at 3:41 PM ^
The playoff committee has shown that they don't give a rat's ass about easy scheduling and have yet to reward a team playing a difficult schedule, which is why no two loss team has ever been chosen.
October 28th, 2019 at 3:49 PM ^
I like out of conference match ups against big teams! Michigan's OOC schedule hasn't kept them out of the CFP. If they beat Arkansas last year they would have been left out because they were blown out in Columbus. The committee does not let teams in that are blown out. Teams can lose to anyone so long as they don't get blown out. OSU has been blown out for two straight years to keep them out. Also, think about how good that win against ND feels. Imagine what happens if the team is 11-1, the team plays no one all year and loses to OSU? Most won't be happy.
October 28th, 2019 at 4:14 PM ^
This is honestly an easy one.
There's not a single, viable, good reason to schedule difficult OOC games other than to appease the TV networks.
You go undefeated or lose once in the B10, you are going to the playoff.
October 28th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Probably true.
Ohio St was 11-1 in 2016 (the one loss was the big upset at Penn St in the White Out Game). They didn't even win the conference, but still got in.
October 28th, 2019 at 5:37 PM ^
Cupcakes at home works for Bama and Clemson.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:24 PM ^
Ohio State had an easy OOC this year and they're going to be in the playoffs too. People are more worried about strength of schedule than winning games for some dumb reason.
October 28th, 2019 at 5:44 PM ^
If we didn’t insist on rescheduling the Notre Dame series we would have played Arkansas last year and finished the regular season 11-1...that sounds pretty good to me.
If it was up to me we would play EMU every year. It would help their exposure, increase their yearly revenue, and give us a guaranteed win. What are neighbors for?
And to hell with Notre Dame. Don’t care if we ever play them again.
October 28th, 2019 at 6:06 PM ^
There's no benefit to playing a team with a pulse non-conference unless losing to a good team means as much to the committee as beating a bad team. Until that happens, we should play Eastern, Central, and Western Michigan every year, with the Eastern game being the week before OSU.
October 28th, 2019 at 6:13 PM ^
All Michigan needs to do is schedule doormat non conference.
OSU will always be ranked, Penn State will always be top 25, media will always laud is for beating Sparty.
Run the table and win the B1G, make the playoff.
October 28th, 2019 at 6:32 PM ^
Whatever gets you to 1 loss the easiest is the way to go. Having 4 top ten teams on your schedule will never get you there thats for sure. Michigan doesnt need to schedule any beasts with PSU OSU MSU and Iowa and Wisky as protected crossover games. Ticket holders wont like what i am saying but there is one thing and one thing only that matters with our conference slate. Get to 1 or less losses at seasons end. How do you get there the easiest?
October 28th, 2019 at 6:58 PM ^
Take the Gene Smith "Hostess" approach to scheduling: fatten up on Twinkies and Cupcakes. Seriously, when was the last time OSU played a "challenging" non conference game? Think the last one was when Baker Mayfield planted a flag after the game. Can't have any more of that!
October 28th, 2019 at 8:20 PM ^
actually, the TCU-OSU game, when it was scheduled, was supposed to be far from a cupcake game...some of this is due to scheduling years in advance (see the recent games that 'Bama has played against Florida State and Louisville)
October 28th, 2019 at 8:21 PM ^
That wasn't an eternity ago. It was 2017. And OSU beating OU in 2016 was the sole reason they made the playoff despite not winning the division.
Losing to OU in 2017 did not keep them out in 2017 (their 31 point beatdown from Iowa did it).
Based on past selections, it seems that you have more to gain than lose by scheduling good teams OOC.
October 28th, 2019 at 7:15 PM ^
Follow the SEC's way, they play 8 conference games, 4 non-conference which are usually cupcakes. The playoff committee has to fight tooth and nail to not give in and give 2 SEC teams to the playoff. Michigan playing 3 cupcakes would be fine. The Big 10 needs to change their format, too. Having that 9th conference game ensures that half you conference gets another loss.
October 28th, 2019 at 8:17 PM ^
well...there's usually one quality opponent that most SEC teams play...or at least they were quality when they were scheduled...it's not Florida's fault that FSU ain't shit and, more often than not, Georgia Tech is a handful for Georgia to handle (but not lately)...it's those late season tilts against inferior competition that tilts their schedule towards the cupcakes...when it matters most
October 28th, 2019 at 7:25 PM ^
For that matter, the AD really dropped the ball in not getting out of the Washington series. Not sure what the Huskies return, but we'll be traveling to the West Coast and breaking in a new QB. That's going to be a tough ask for sure, with ZERO upside. Literally none.
To answer the question, doormats all the way. Playing OSU / PSU / MSU / random decent West team is enough for SOS. So, doormats.
October 28th, 2019 at 7:54 PM ^
SOS doesnt mean anything anymore...this isnt the BCS. What is BS is the NCAA allowing the SEC to only have 8 conference games and let them play FCS teams late in the schedule. Level the playing field and mandate every conference play 9 in conference games and 3 out of conference games. Also no more FCS (1AA) teams on your schedule...only FBS (1A).
While we are at it. Eliminate the divisions in conference and do what the Big 12 does and take the top 2 teams regardless. The championship game should be the 2 best teams in your conference regardless of division. Yaya well then we would play OSU back to back...well if its the 2 best teams in the conference hell ya lets play again on neutral soil.
October 28th, 2019 at 10:18 PM ^
It all starts with wins. I wouldn’t schedule a top team. Play a home game against a none P5 team and get the victories. If you go 12-0 and win B1G your OOC games can be against sisters of the poor and you will get in with winning the B1G
October 28th, 2019 at 11:00 PM ^
Just ask clemson if going undefeated with a weak schedule is enough to make it into the playoffs. They likely don't regret not scheduling Alabama to play neutral site games to start the season every year.. Scheduling Oklahoma is dumb. We have everything to lose and little to nothing to gain fron these marquee series. We beat penn state, ohio state and win the conference championship and we're in the playoff. Beating Oklahoma too doesn't get us any more in, but playing them at all greatly improves our chances of losing.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:16 PM ^
Most of you aren't being rational.
Best case scenario, how often do you think Michigan could make the playoff? I'd be happy with once every 5 years. Even at twice every five years, you're giving up the potential to experience a game like ND the other night for a better chance at making the playoff. It's really not worth it. All of these games are only as important as you make them. Watching Michigan destroy ND with my son by my side is a memory I'll cherish for the rest of my life. That game mattered to us.
So some of you really want to get rid of these potentially memorable games and play Saginaw Valley State? No thanks.
Play the games.
October 28th, 2019 at 11:27 PM ^
Michigan hasn't made the playoffs at all. What are you talking about "I'd be happy with once every 5 years. Even at twice every five years..."
October 29th, 2019 at 6:40 AM ^
Exactly. Why build your schedule around something they may never happen?
Play the games.
October 29th, 2019 at 1:23 AM ^
Playing cupcakes is boring.
But the CFP process is stupid and incentivizes boring cupcake games.
I agree with Meyer. You need to get a CFP process that stops incentivizing cupcakes.
You could do this quite readily with math (an Elo-like system, or probability based). I doubt it will happen any time soon.
My belief is that next up is an increase of number of spots in the CFP system. There, I hope that it is an 8-team system.
October 29th, 2019 at 9:38 AM ^
You must win all of your games, so schedule doormats just like Alabama, Clemson do. They haven’t played a single hard game yet.