Lots of Confused Takes On How NIL Will Impact College Football. Here's the Actual Truth.

Submitted by Snazzy_McDazzy on January 13th, 2022 at 5:23 PM

Despite the confidence indicated in the title of this post, I am curious to hear other people's opinions, as I've enjoyed the takes posters have shared in other threads. After much thought, here is my best guess at to how NIL will change college football.

 

1. We are not going to live in a new chaotic free-for-all

Right now, things feel like the Wild West. But eventually, the college football world will settle into a new normal way of doing business. Maybe that's because the NCAA will take steps to stabilize/clarify our new reality (doubtful). Or maybe because everyone appreciates norms and stability. I don't think rich football crazed donors want chaos either. Texas A&M's donors did what they did because they were able to juice one recruiting class in a way that, combined with their national championship winning head coach and the previously strong recruiting classes, could end up being the difference between making the playoffs or not in the next few years. Nevertheless, I would be shocked if a true escalating arms race actually comes to fruition, at least if we're talking long term.

 

2. The big boys in particular will see a stabilization over the long haul

What I mean by this is, facilities and recent success and location were already huge draws for a school like Alabama or Ohio State, even if their current head coach left/retired. That gives the new head coach major advantages. But now that they will also have a lucrative above board compensation system in place, I suspect the Alabamas and Ohio States of the world will never truly have 5+ year down periods. It simply won't be possible, especially with the new transfer rules.

 

3. Certain programs will obviously benefit more than others

Which programs might be better off under the new transfer and NIL rules? Well, Michigan State obviously comes to mind. They have some very wealthy donors who care deeply about college football and they just ponied up for the best coach they could possibly expect to land. They also have just enough recent football success and play in one of the top two conferences and thus have more to sell to recruits than simply money. Another program that may benefit greatly? How about Nebraska? Extremely proud football tradition. Extremely passionate fan base. I don't know which rich donors would come into play for them but I imagine they could hit up some wealthy football fanatics. I also suspect NIL will benefit Michigan now that players can receive money above board without breaking the rules. And certainly, places like USC and Texas will leverage NIL to finally lift their programs to a place where they can realistically compete for the playoffs on a semi-regular basis.

 

4. We will see more quirky recruiting decisions among elite recruits

This may seem contrary to Point #1 but there will certainly be instances where 5 star and high 4 star recruits choose a non-traditional power because of the money/opportunities thrown at them. What this means is that despite the stabilization of the elite blue blood programs, I also expect slightly more parity as individual programs can offer individual players something unique beyond a shot at the college football playoffs and an NFL track record. Thus, the blue bloods will achieve a little more stability AND there will be a little bit more parity moving forward.

 

Let me know what I missed in the comments.

Darker Blue

January 13th, 2022 at 6:15 PM ^

Here's the truth

First of all your post was way too long 

Second This is the end of college football as we know it. They'll try to slap some regulations on it but its not going to work. How do I know that? I don't but if there are large sums of money involved people get greedy and greed always fucks things up. 

Third Because there is more money changing hands in the open the Universities will want their cut. That means already stupid prices will go up even more and we'll have more dr pepper fanville bullshit 

Fourth I'm sick as fuck and my concentration is lacking 

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maizeonblueaction

January 13th, 2022 at 6:19 PM ^

Alright, I'l bite.

I actually think we'll settle into some kind of order, as donors probably don't want to get into an ever escalating arms race to pay for talent (this is exactly what the NFL/NBA has in place). Not sure how that gets organized, but the wealthy are usually wealthy because they don't want to spend more money than they have to.

I tend to agree that we'll see more talent dispersal though, in that we'll probably see maybe five to ten more programs start to compete for high level players, and thus have sort of an NCAA equivalent of the Premier League's Big Six, where six teams compete for four spots, instead of the current La Liga situation where two teams are competing for four spots, and everyone else is fighting to be third most years.

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Toasted Yosties

January 13th, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^

I mean, I agree. Best practices will be discovered and adopted by all, at whatever tier of money a team is at.  I’m curious if the NIL deals will be structured in a way to keep high-end players out and make the portal less crazy. 

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UMBSnMBA

January 13th, 2022 at 6:49 PM ^

How long until we start a draft of high school players and if they don't want to go to the school that selected them, they don't get the NIL money.  I'm not advocating this, but how do you do this in a way that is fair to all concerned (you don't).

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AlbanyBlue

January 13th, 2022 at 7:07 PM ^

Best guess is that this will further drive CFB into the haves and the have nots. The deregulation NIL brings will allow more teams to be near the top, but schools that do no innovate in this area will drift downward. I hope Michigan is one of the schools that is innovating.

Oh, and as long as the money keeps flowing, the NCAA will not put the brakes on anything.

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DamnYankee

January 13th, 2022 at 7:14 PM ^

I do believe that these NIL deals will eventually become de facto contracts for recruits.  Not happy with current playing time or spot on the depth chart?  Entering transfer portal immediately voids NIL deal.  Get injured and can no longer play?  No NIL for you!  Heck, we might even see 5* recruits lose portions of their deals if they don’t pan out or “meet their quota”(sacks, rushing yards, passing yards, etc.).

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bogart

January 13th, 2022 at 7:26 PM ^

Who knows where this NIL business will take us?  Difficult to predict the Big Picture, but I imagine some of these issues will develop: 
Some schools will experience a decrease in donations to the endowment fund as alums divert some of their regular largess to the NIL booster fund.
Top rated recruits may be kept out of the transfer portal if their sponsor requires a "no-compete" element in the contract.
An entire new type of consulting will arise to organize and manage NIL operations at institutions that are worried about policing and controlling who has access to their student athletes. (Gambling enterprises and other disallowed parties)
Big-money sponsors may withdraw with buyer's remorse if they invest in a kid who can't crack the starting line-up or wants to transfer.  Transfers will affect local businesses who want to engage, but large national companies will be less concerned about it.
As with any new enterprise that causes lots of money to change hands, there will be opportunists, and scammers, and people will get hurt.

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StephenRKass

January 13th, 2022 at 9:46 PM ^

You received a neg from me. Here's the actual truth why.

  1. Don't EVER put "Here's the actual truth" in the title, and the write, "here's my best guess." This is extremely, extremely annoying, duplicitous, just bad all around.
  2. I guess there's one exception to putting "Here's the actual truth." That would be if you actually work for the NCAA, or have administered NIL for a school, or are an athlete receiving NIL. At that point, you are an insider, with real information to share, and readers at MGoBlog will be delighted and posbang you highly. I greatly appreciate inside information. I have close to zero time for endless, baseless, speculations.

EDIT:  I see that I was not the only one who was annoyed. Also, what in the world kind of user name is "snazzy mcdazzy?"

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Heptarch

January 13th, 2022 at 10:17 PM ^

I don't blame OP. We live in a post-truth era. The truth can be whatever you want to be if you lie long enough and absolutely refuse to acknowledge reality.

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