growler4

November 22nd, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

People confuse oddsmakers' lines with their prediction of the final score differential. While there is some element of that built into the line, they also set the line to attract interest from betters on both sides.

If an equal amount of money is bet on both teams in a game, the house has a guaranteed win without risk of losing money. Their perfect scenario.

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SugarShane

November 22nd, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^

Well, isn't the line an accurate representation of where everyone is predicting the final score to be? If it's to get 50-50 betting, then that should be the average point the general point people agree upon



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smwilliams

November 22nd, 2015 at 12:30 PM ^

Not necessarily. The idea like the person above mentioned is to entice equal betting on both sides. If bets are flooded in for Michigan at +2.5, then the line will move and move and move. It's less of a prediction of a score and more a reaction to the tendencies of gamblers.

It does mean the general public is thinking Michigan wins this game.



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Bigku22

November 22nd, 2015 at 5:45 PM ^

This is a common belief a lot of bettors have, but the oddsmakers goal (at the larger, legitimate books) is not 50/50 action. They will set lines they believe is accurate, and adjust the line based off sharp action (professional bettors). The public action in most cases does not move lines. If a book believes they have set a proper line, even if the public is betting 70-80% on one side, they will hold firm at that line. 

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Njia

November 22nd, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^

If Zeke and Cardale don't make the trip because they're in Urban's doghouse (not a nonzero possibility if he wants to keep control of his team) any Sunday line becomes pretty meaningless.

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Muttley

November 22nd, 2015 at 6:22 PM ^

not against you or me or Michigan, at least directly.

If Urbz wants to reward that type of behavior, he'll get more of it in the future.  OSU 2015 has to be up there in the underachievers Hall of Fame, protected thus far only by a weak schedule.

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bluebyyou

November 22nd, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^

Two ways to look at how OSU will approach the game.  They either will have something to prove and will come out swinging, or their hopes of playing for the NC is over and they will go through the motions.

Listening to Elliott yesterday, it might seem like the latter approach.  We will see just how good Meyer's motivations skills are on Saturday.

Go Blue!!

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Goggles Paisano

November 22nd, 2015 at 12:42 PM ^

Sharp money comes in early in the week and usually moves the line.  Public money follows at the end of the week/game day.  The # of tickets played on each team is also interesting to watch.  The public plays the biggest part in that and is more often wrong than right.  

I'm not surprised by the early movement either.  One locker room is galvanized with steel in their spines and the other is imploding with a focus on their NFL draft status.

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LSAClassOf2000

November 22nd, 2015 at 12:50 PM ^

A lot of the algorithms have had the Michigan / OSU game coming down to a point or two in either direction for a couple weeks now, so there's been a lot of talk about how - perhaps for the first time in a while - this game is essentially a coin toss from a betting standpoint. Like so many things about this season thus far, walking into the OSU game 9-2 and all that, I can take that. 

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