Just saw that we're actually a 2.5pt favorite over Bama

Submitted by Buy Bushwood on December 3rd, 2023 at 5:40 PM

I bet that will even out.  And then we'll cover.  

MFanWM

December 3rd, 2023 at 6:57 PM ^

I think the key in the playoffs is every team is "good" - does Michigan come in with a game-plan that actually puts its athletes into position to win with new schemes, but to also attack players and gaps with the right talent on offense.

If Michigan just deploys the run between the tackles on first and second down, it is going to be tough sledding against Alabama in particular.

Washington & TX are more OSU than Alabama - so that game-plan might not be terrible??

Lack of scheming open players with the offense and using things like a damn play-action pass, some tempo, etc just seem to keep Michigan in tighter games than they should have been.

Gob Wilson

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:16 PM ^

Sure, Bama beat GA. I expect Bama to come to the Rose Bowl equally prepared. But, look at their record this season. I am not all that impressed. A 17-3 win over South Florida? Auburn was one non-idiotic play away from putting them away?

Texas beat Bama this year in the 4th quarter (it was 13-16 Alabama at the end of the 3rd). Something tells me we can wear them down if we don't get behind early and grind away. Our O line is unlike anybody they have seen this year. On D I look for us to generate some turnovers. Finally. I trust in the Michigan coaching staff to prepare well for this game. There are 29 days to go. 

MDot

December 4th, 2023 at 6:35 AM ^

Against their #1 rival, in a game that's notorious for crazy shit happening. We as Michigan fans should know how flukey the in-state rivalry game is capable of being. Just two years ago, Bama beat Auburn in a game they had no business winning, and then smoked arguably the best version of UGA the week after (the same team that killed us in the playoff). 

 

Bama isn't unbeatable, but they have a higher ceiling than us. On paper, they are better than us. That doesn't mean we can't be the best team on that day, though. Milroe has the best deep ball in the country, but he can be erratic as hell under pressure, and doesn't read zone coverage well. If our defense brings its A-game, they will have trouble. JJ needs to be the best QB on the field for us to win. This is the game that can put him in the 1st round and have him be the 3rd QB off the board if he balls out. This is his shot. 

MaizeBlueA2

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:23 PM ^

I just did a little scout of Bama.

They're built A LOT like we are, statistically there are a lot of similarities. 

Both teams would prefer the QB to go 17/24 for 225 yards and control the game by running the ball.

In terms of our opponents, maybe PSU offensively (except the run their QB) and OSU defensively? 

Bama isn't a huge edge rush team, they're like OSU in that regard.

Offensively, we got 30 points on OSU, but 7 were courtesy of the Will Johnson INT. We will need a turnover or two, otherwise, it may be tough to get out of the 20s.

Defensively, they're strong, but nothing jumps off the page...just like OSU. With PSU, you immediately notice their edge rush. With Iowa, it's their team defense and tackling. Bama has a bunch of DUDES, like OSU, and they win their individual battles, like OSU.

One thing that I noticed...going into last night, I knew Iowa's red zone defense was EXCELLENT. They showed it. Bama? Average in that category. We will have to stay on schedule and get touchdowns. 

Both teams are willing to punt and do a solid job with it.

Early prediction: Michigan 28-24.

nerv

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:36 PM ^

We arent going to be able to run the ball to start the game. The play calling is going to need to take a step up in creativity. JJ is going to need the run the ball 5-10 times to keep Bama from crashing down on our RBs all game. Im worried about our tackles holding up so keeping the Bama defense off balance and not firing straight into the backfield is going to be important.

MaizeBlueA2

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:42 PM ^

He's got a month to get healthy.

Also, there is no point running the ball 10 times into the middle of that DL.  Just use the short passing game.  JJ just has to be comfortable taking a profit.

He missed Corum and Edwards and several check down last night, it was infuriating as he forced throws down the middle.

Also, the TEs have to catch the ball.

Jonesy

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^

Welp, too bad we get destroyed by running QBs, on the plus side I'll be at the game. First Rose Bowl for me since 1998, only 2nd in person game for me since then.

BlueMk1690

December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 PM ^

Bama is very good. I mean duh whether we think they should be in the playoff or not, a one loss SEC champ is bound to be very good.

But you're not going to play meh teams in the playoffs. Some people may have hoped for FSU, but that would not have been an easy game by any means. Texas would have represented an extremely difficult challenge as well. Same with Washington (the one shared opponent, MSU, they beat as soundly as Michigan did).

Michigan is traditionally much more likely to fall flat on its face in these types of games than most teams. I often wondered why. Maybe Michigan traditionally is a bit overrated due to its big fanbase and high status, so tends to get match-ups vs more talented teams. But it could also be that Michigan simply focused too much on just the Big Ten and not enough on opponents in the national landscape. Pasadena historically has not been kind to Michigan.

But from hearing what the team had to say even early in the year, it seems to me like they view the playoff, and SEC teams in particular, as sort of the final frontier. They got the OSU monkey off their back in 2021 and 2022, but the question about national competitiveness remained. I really feel like their focus this season has been much more on what's coming up ahead than in previous years. In the past OSU may have been seen as our 'final boss', but I think this team never saw it that way.

One advantage the selection controversy gives us that this might be the only match-up out there in which most of CFB nation is on Michigan's side. Bama is the Michael Myers of CFB, the ultimate adversary. Everyone associated with Michigan football should have a razor-sharp focus and 110% commitment to beating them over the next few weeks. I think it's doable. Never a given, but they absolutely can be beaten. And what a triumph it would be.

Ernis

December 4th, 2023 at 12:57 AM ^

Why wouldn’t we be? We’re undefeated and ranked #1. Bama hasn’t been in the top 5 all year and has a loss. We should expect to be better, and for outsiders to recognize that.