Josh Gattis long term potential
Michigan seems to have their guy on the offensive side of the ball. I don't think I've ever been more excited about a coaching hire than this (except Harbaugh, of course). Recruits seem to be really into him also. I understand this is his first year as full on, solo OC. When he turns 3 WRs into first round picks this year, he's going to be in very high demand. I fully expect this offense to do amazing things and put up some serious points this year. My question: do yall think think he's a 1 year guy here, or are we lucky enough to get 2? I don't see any possible way he's here more than 2. Also, if he's a 1 year guy, it'll be interesting to see how Harbaugh replaces him and how the 2021 class reacts. Thoughts?
He’ll probably only be here for 3 years max unless being an OC is all he wants to do.
I would add that he’s too young to exclude being a head coach. He’ll want to at least try being a HC at some point. Maybe he’ll take a slow trajectory or maybe after 2 years a good school will come calling and he’ll probably take it. If he succeeds he’ll keep moving up. If he fails at HC he can always go back to being an OC. I give him 2 years here and he’s gone. Hopefully Harbaugh learns enough or has a position coach learn enough to step in when Gattis leaves.
Hey, don't worry we have Jaybaugh here!!!
Unless he isn't very good, then he will be here forever.
Like Pep?
Harbaugh.
Seems like he's a bit too young to be a career-OC, and given his relatively fast rise through the ranks of CFB coaching I'd imagine that Ann Arbor will be a 1 year pitstop on his way to a MAC HC gig or lower-tier P5 job. I'm just looking forward to appreciating the guy while he's here - very excited to see the offensive potential this season!
He could be like Dave Aranda at LSU, biding his time until the perfect job opens up. If that is the case he could be here 3 or 4 years depending on which major program implodes in that window.
If not I agree with the consensus that he is a 2 year guy at most.
Dave Aranda is being paid more than 65 college head coaches. It's also significantly easier to find a job as an up and coming OC than a quality DC. I think if Gattis was really biding his time to find the perfect job, he would've stayed in Alabama. He came to Michigan because it was a step up, and an ability to showcase his talents and get a HC job. IMO the odds of him getting offered a terrific entry level HC job like Cincy or USF are incredibly high.
If Michigan's offense does well, hell probably move on to a more lucrative position. If it does not, then his career will probably take a step backwards. Same deal as any other young coordinator.
Agree. I think every major program wants to see some turnover with their assistants which indicates they've done well and are in demand.
So who is on the OC-watchlist to replace #S-I-S?
I’d like to see results based on the hire. I remember being excited about Nussmeier and that went nowhere. Harbaugh at least has a better track record of finding new coaches (Brown, Warriner, Moore, Washington). If all goes well, I expect him to stay 1 year here. 2 max. His effect though will be tremendous as it will finally bring Michigan’s offense into the modern era. I expect Harbaugh to replace Gattis with another spread type OC.
Nussmeir actually had more relevant experience than Gattis does.
True, but it was enough to show proof that he had run into the Peter Principle.
The telling difference I see between Nussmeier and Gattis is that Saban was showing the former out and helped him get a soft landing, whereas he wanted to keep Gattis.
I agree with the other posters that if Gattis shifts the offense into high gear he's going to get HC offers after a couple years, it's just a matter of what kind of HC job interests him. Maybe he'll take over after PSU dumps Franklin.
Franklin probably has a leash of 4 years at least, barring a complete collapse of the system. After him though, I expect PSU to go after Moorehead. He’s originally from Pennsylvania so culture wise, he would be a great fit. This is assuming he does okay at Mississippi st.
If the odds were good enough, I'd place a relatively sizable bet that James Franklin isnt the coach of Penn State next year. If USC, Auburn, Florida State comes open, James will be positioning himself first in line. The USC rumors last year weren't inaccurate, I think he knows with Michigan getting it rolling, and Ohio State being Ohio State, and Iowa, Nebraska, Purdue, and Wisconsin all being formidable cross conference foes, that his stock probably isn't getting too much higher.
If they lost Franklin, they'd probably get Moorhead, but they'd be a lot better off if they got Matt Rhule. Just my two cents tho
I'm not buying the idea that Gattis might only be here for one year if he does well. It's a lot of projection for a first time OC. Co-OC at Bama is kind of a weird title when Locksley was their OC, not a co-OC,
He's doing great in the PR side, which is important for a head coach. But he hasn't gotten any recruits yet that I'm aware of. That's not a knock, it's early to expect much, but reeling in some top ranked recruits will boost his stock. He's walking into the most loaded roster we've had on offense since what, 1999 or 2000? No matter how good the offense looks, if I was hiring, I'd want to see what he can do the following year. Does his offense still look good with a lot of new starters and probably less talent? Can he adapt and build a team? That can't be answered in one year and no team interested in hiring a head coach is going to be loaded on offense.
Difference is Saban pushed one out the door and wanted to keep the other
Novel thought here ... maybe we let thing play out the way they’re going play — like let the guy call at least ONE PLAY in an actual game before we start thinking about when/if he’s going to leave and how soon.
That said, if he’s as successful as we all hope he will be — and I think he’s got that potential — he will be a hot commodity, for sure. But, it’s going to take at least few season before he’s offered a head coaching job, and it’s likely going to be at a lower tier program. Is that his goal? I don’t know. But, I’ll bet you he and Harbaugh have had that conversation.
Gattis being courted by other programs would be a great problem to have.
I agree. If he is that good (and that has yet to be determined), then wouldn't he be better off staying an extra year or two and getting a solid P5 job instead of jumping ship at the first low level HC job that gets offered. I know it is hard to turn down the pay raise, but a P5 job will pay more in the long run. Who knows what will happen once he becomes a HC, he could get destroyed by a having a bad D. Then what?
Moorhead was at PSU for 2 years, so that’s probably a guide if everything goes extremely well. That said, Gattis will have to deal with a lot of exits after year 1, so how long he stays probably comes down to how smooth that transition ends up being. My guess is he stays 3 years.
Yes, but Moorhead had four years of HC experience before he went to PSU though. Fordham and all but my point is he had far more high level experience when he went to PSU than Gattis has had before coming to M.
My guess is Gattis is gonna need 2-3 years to showcase what he can do before a decent HC offer comes along, remember he's never called plays before. That said, maybe some low tier school comes calling and he'd rather take that than stick around and wait for a P5 offer.
Either way, I'm in the same range as you, we get him for 2-3 years. Hopefully, very productive and exciting years full of wins over OSU.
As pretty much everyone has said, over/under is 1.5 years. If the offense is a top 5-10 offense he will probably get a HC offer after 1 year. Depending on his goals and the strength of the offer he might decide to stick it out an extra year if Michigan piles up wins. He can reasonably claim to be a part of the coaching trees of Harbaugh, Saban, and Franklin as well as having learned under Moorhead and Locksley. Not sure anyone else at his age has the same pedigree. Not to mention after leading the s&p+ 25th and 49th ranked offense Pep and Drevno got HC looks. I remember SJSU being mentioned as interested in Drevno and obviously Pep got an XFL job.
There's also the notion that he may prefer to take a better job than SJSU's of the world. Personally, I just have a hard time believing a guy with only ONE year of OC experience would get a HC offer. Pep had NFL experience and Drevno had been around the block too so that's not entirely surprising they'd get calls.
I'd say the O/U is 2.5 and I'll take the over.
He was the passing game coordinator at Penn State for 4 years under Franklin and Moorhead, then he was Co-OC at Bama. Now he's got the keys to the offense at Michigan. Scott Frost was the offensive coordinator at Oregon for 3 years before getting the UCF job, Pat Fitzgerald was a linebackers coach, Tom Allen had 2 years of DC experience and only one at a power 5, Ryan Day had 4 years of OC experience, and 3 of those were Temple/BC. Jeff Brohm had 2 years before he got the WKU job, Jim Harbaugh had no experience as a coordinator when he was hired by San Diego, PJ Fleck was a wide receivers coach when he was hired.
Hell Ed Orgeron has never been a coordinator.
If you're a good coach, and you can recruit, and you're a young guy, you don't need a lot of experience. Gattis is gone in two years, he's either up or out. The plan is not for him to be around much longer than that, because if he can't get a solid job offer after OCing for 3 years for Saban and Harbaugh, it's because he's not good enough. I lean on the over of 1.5, but I'd hammer under 2.5 all day.
If he’s legit and Donna Brown lays another egg, gotta promote Gattis to head coach
Im going to wait for Gattis to call his very first game at the college level before I proclaim him the right guy. He seems like a good hire, but I’ll reserve judgement until he actually runs an offense.
Speed in space tho!!!
/s
Wow, that was quick!
Don Brown proved his significant impact over time.
Shouldn't Gattis have that opportunity?
Who gets in the HOF without one win at a new job?
Take off your homer glasses. We won’t have three first round WR picks. It’s more likely that we have zero.
It's more likely we have 1. DPJ is physically ready now. Homer glasses, yes, but, honestly point still stands. All 3 have that potential. A monster year would allow each to showcase that potential.
There are 32 first round picks. Anywhere from 0-7 WRs could be taken in the first round in any given year, depending on the depth of the class. Let's say 4 receivers get taken in the First Round next year, Laviska Shenault, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Henry Ruggs, and Tee Higgins are probably all a better bet to be taken ahead of every Michigan receiver. Tarik Black has had injury issues, so he's certainly not going to be a first rounder with only one healthy year. I think we absolutely have 3, maybe 4 Future NFL players in the wide receiver room. It's an incredible unit for us, but it's so hard to be a first rounder. And that list doesnt even include other guys who could have monster years.
Exactly. We have at least 3 WRs who could make the NFL but we don’t have the Rashan of WRs - a guy who can play ok one season and get drafted in the first round on potential.
I doubt our top three WRs even go to the draft after next season. Whoever is #3 would be the feature WR the following year.
I agree. 0 seem like by far the most likely case.
DPJ has the athleticism but is far below the production of a 1st rounder. And he is hurt and could miss significant time (or none? seems like so much contradicting info there). He is the only one that has even a reasonable shot at the 1st in '20 IMO.
Collins is tall and can catch but I highly doubt he'll test like a 1st rounder at the combine. Top end speed is lacking for a 1st round WR. More likely to be a 3rd rounder or so. Not a knock on him, it is just very tough to be a 1st rounder.
Black looked the part of a future 1st rounder as a true freshman early but he has 15 career catches and 20 career missed games. He would have to have a monster year to go in the 1st despite his injury concerns. I could see him as a 2021 1st rounder if he had a successful and healthy year this coming season and then came back and dominated after DPJ/Collins left. I also question what his 40 time and such will show.
Slow down. Let's let him call a play first.
Haven't played a snap under his coaching yet and we are anointing him God? Seems extremely premature. Let's see how this goes first.
I’d be shocked if Harbaugh didn’t have and two year minimum handshake agreement at the time of hire. These things aren’t typically written into contracts but some coaches make them commit to two years in order to get the offer.
Maybe a 3 year minimum.
A handshake agreement of this sort is pointless and worthless. I guess some coaches are idiots, but if they want a coach to commit to a multi year deal, then it should be in writting with some sort of buyout clause. Otherwise, they're just bs-ing each other.
No chance of that, Jim Harbaugh wants Gattis to get a head coaching job. Because if that happens, it means that Gattis did a great job as OC. If Michigan lights it up this year and goes to the playoff, it'll be a very happy good bye for the both of them. Jim Harbaugh probably empowers his coaches to get head coaching jobs better than anyone else.
For sure we're getting way ahead of ourselves, but this makes the most sense. Harbaugh made the statement that he missed on Gattis once and wasn't going to let it happen again, so I think he was recruiting him pretty hard. He was at Alabama and didn't need Michigan to build his resume, so there's no need for Gattis to commit to anything. But, I think working for Harbaugh vs. Saban could have been very attractive for a couple of reasons:
1. Cannot imagine working for Saban. I'm sure that you would learn but there's a reason for the high turnover rate.
2. Although Gattis' offense appears to be awesome, I think there is still much to learn from Harbaugh and I think he's smart enough to see that.
Ideally, Gattis is successful (of course) and creates an understudy that aligns with Harbaugh that can then continue the tradition if and when he decides to become a head coach.
I'm like 95 percent sure someone else asked this same unanswerable question probably a month ago.
Let McDaniels learn the offense for a few years then he can take it over.
McDaniels would not be a surprise.
We’re already concerned about Gattis leaving?
Yeah man didn't you see that spring game?
I'm surprised that he hasn't already left for a HC gig...
Can we at least get a year under our belt before he gets annointed.....shheeessshhhh
Why don’t we just let this all play out for at least a season before jumping to conclusions. Everything is all sunshine and rosy right now and the kool aid is being guzzled. I am looking forward to this season but my expectations are not nearly as high as the media and I believe a lot of this fan base.
It is early, but I've had similar thoughts. I do get Maize colored glasses, and this case is no exception.
I think one year - even with the best possible outcome, i.e. 15-0 3 first rd. WR draft picks, etc. - is out of the question, I think it takes two, possibly three. Then the question becomes what do we do with that?
JH has always encouraged people to move on and he has always brought plenty of young talent in to build it up from the bottom. An ancient X-addison goes turncoat (again, cuz that's what he does, gets out just before it gets good) and takes the guy with him who had Scarlet n Grey blood anyway? BFD we get Shaun Nua and Anthony Campanile to replace em, young coaches, on the cusp of brilliance. We still got DB Jr's dad waiting in the wings for his shot. We are stockpiling coaching talent.
My hope - which I think is very realistic - is that Gattis is wildly successful, moves on and rubs off on the young offensive coaches we have here. He has been a great team player and the chemistry between him and JH couldn't be better IMO. I see no reason why we shouldn't believe that we will keep getting better one day at a time.