John Beilein Don't Care - UM w/ 1 of Toughest Non Conf Schedules in Country

Submitted by alum96 on

John Beilein doesn't know fear.  He is taking a team with 6 freshman out there and taking on one of the toughest - if not the toughest - non conf schedules in the country.  Then you throw on a Big 10 schedule on top of it, in a sport our conference is actually legit and whoa nellie. 

I was struck by how many ranked treams we have on our schedule and could not remember a season like this.  So I thought I'd compare it to the top 8 teams in the country and then threw OSU and MSU out there for comparison.   I was aware but not fully aware of how difficult this schedule is until you compare it to peers.
 

Number of ranked teams played non conf

UM 4 Syracuse, AZ, SMU, VCU/Villanova
OSU 2 Louisville, NC
MSU 1 Duke
Wiscy 1 Duke
UK 4 Kansas, Texas NC, Louisville
Duke 3 MSU, Wiscy, UConn
UNC 2 UK, OSU
Kansas 3 UK, UF, Utah,
Arizona 2 Gonzaga, UM
Louisville 2 OSU, UK

 

Please note this is taken via ESPN and might not account for some tournaments although as best as I can tell only UM, MSU, and Kansas are involved in tournaments. (could be wrong)   We have  4 ranked teams only matched by UK's NBA team. So that's where we are at - rolling out a team with 6 freshmen (not of the UK kind) with 3 players just sent to the NBA.

He had subs.  He just don't care.

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goblue16

November 20th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^

Most of the schedule is set a year in advance but the idea is a tourney should guarantee at least one ranked team like the Maui or 2k classic or legends classic. Then u get the big ten ACC challenge which is always a big game. What Beilein wants is to schedule other teams as well like Arizona or Stanford or Iowa state with the hope that they should be good teams

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JHendo

November 20th, 2014 at 12:08 PM ^

Nowhere near as far into the future as football, but still a couple seasons or so beforehand, while I think preseason tourneys are more of <1 year decision.  However, the teams on that list are teams that have perenially been top 25 teams, if not championship contenders, for a while now.  You make that schedule knowing exactly what you're getting yourself into.

Joined: 10/25/2008

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alum96

November 20th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^

Completely different than football.  You can't even get a full schedule really for basketball until about 2 months before the season.  Outside of the tournaments I think most of these (not all) are set anywhere from 4-5 months before the season to 2 years (Arizona was a home and home).  For example Duke and UConn announced their game June 16, 2014.

So in this case they had VCU or Villanova locked in just by nature of the tournament being scheduled well in advance and had AZ locked in at least 18 months ago due to the nature of the home and home.  Can't speak to the others but yes nothing like football.

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alum96

November 20th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

Yes true.  Devil's advocate says this year in particular with a team that might be 10-8 in conference or 9-9 every win will count towards the tournament.  And 2 extra losses might be the difference between say a 5 seed and a 7 seed.   To others that won't matter as there are so many moving parts but it's a pretty hectic schedule for such a young team who will have a lot of competitive teams in the conference.   I'd feel more comfortable with it if we were more assured with a 11-7/12-6 type of Big 10 slate.  My gut tells me there are going to be 6 teams or so all between 8-10 and 10-8 in the Big 10 so getting to 18ish victories or so is imperative overall for the NCAA.

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goblue16

November 20th, 2014 at 12:04 PM ^

I love tr strategy by Beilein he schedules at least 2 ranked opponents plus the big ten ACC challenge and a preseason tourney which usually features a ranked team. I've said this many times its better to play ranked teams and lose than to play cupcakes and win by 30. Not only does it improve your resume it also helps build confidence in your team heading into the big ten schedule. And if u want more proof just look at 2013-2014 Michigan

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goblue16

November 20th, 2014 at 12:11 PM ^

To be fair Izzo has always used the same strategy he schedules a tough nonconference schedule to prepare his team for the big ten. This way if the big ten is strong he can get the team mentally prepared for the tough stretch and if the big ten is weak he has a good enough resume to guarantee an ncaa tourney bid. Beilein has used the same strategy

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mgowill

November 20th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^

With the work you do on football with FEI and S&P+, you would probably dig a subscription to kenpom.  There are some really tough matchups on our non-conference schedule.

Joined: 08/31/2011

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GOBLUE4EVR

November 20th, 2014 at 1:55 PM ^

i saw in oregons game against detroit, oregon looked very sloppy and i really only saw the first half of the game... i looked at the box score form that game this morning and one their players went 7 for 23 from the field which included a 1 for 12 performance from 3... they are a high volume shooting team so any team with good defense and decent rebounding should be able to stop them...

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goblue16

November 20th, 2014 at 12:13 PM ^

Then you have teams like NW or PSU who win 18 games play a cupcake nonconference schedule and bitch when they don't make the tourney. Schedule tough nonconference games it's that simple

Joined: 03/28/2010

MGoPoints: 17468

ChiBlueBoy

November 20th, 2014 at 12:16 PM ^

I don't have a subscription, so I don't know where they rank us, but ESPN says FL has the toughest out-of-conference schedule: Link

Yahoo claims that Wisconsin has a tougher non-conference schedule than UM.

I think ours is tough, and that's a good thing this year, given that we have some experience combined with youth.

Joined: 10/11/2011

MGoPoints: 7844

alum96

November 20th, 2014 at 1:06 PM ^

I didnt look at UF as they are not in the top 8 but Wisconsin I dont get - they do have a tournament that is not on the ESPN schedule (the latter rounds) so will face another tough team or two but they are saying Milwaukee or Marquette are the reason it is tough along with Duke.    They could play 2 tough games in that tournament though dependiing on how things fall.

Looking now Florida is in the same tournament and has UConn and Kansas so has a chance to match us and UK with 4 tough ones.  So I agree there.

 

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ryebadger

November 20th, 2014 at 6:00 PM ^

The tournament Wisconsin is in features North Carolina, UCLA, Florida, Oklahoma, Georgetown, Butler and UAB. They open with UAB, then should get Florida next and if they win that they'll see UNC, Oklahoma or UCLA (or Butler). They also play at Marquette, at Cal and Duke. I don't think Milwaukee makes the schedule any more difficult but the UW Green Bay team they beat last night went 24-7 last year and is the Horizon Conference favorite again.  

Joined: 11/18/2010

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MH20

November 20th, 2014 at 1:18 PM ^

Best, worst nonconference schedules:

Most disappointing


Michigan State Spartans

This one is shocking -- even though the Spartans did lose a ton last season. Tom Izzo almost always plays a rugged schedule, but not this season -- especially if MSU doesn’t meet up with Kansas in Orlando. The home slate is full of teams that are expected to finish toward the bottom of their league.

Home: Santa Clara, Texas Southern, Loyola-Chicago, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Oakland, Eastern Michigan, Citadel
Neutral: Duke (Indianapolis), Orlando (Rider, Georgia Tech/Marquette and one more TBD)
Road: Notre Dame, Navy

Joined: 10/30/2008

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WolverineHistorian

November 20th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^

So I guess college basketball is becoming like college football in that 90% of the teams will play nobodies out of conference and we have to wait until conference season to get matchups between ranked teams. I would love it if by some miracle, we could win at Arizona. I'm still pissed over McGary being given a foul for....breathing too hard on a Wildcat last year at Crisler which gave them the game winning free throws.

Joined: 08/10/2009

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Soulfire21

November 20th, 2014 at 12:25 PM ^

Wow I was just complaining to a co-worker about our cupcakes so far.  Didn't think about it I guess.  Thanks for posting, I'm currently talking to a Sparty co-worker about it haha.

Joined: 03/18/2010

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SDCran

November 20th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^

To determining tough schedules. You can game the numbers and make your 'official' sos look tougher by playing team ranked 200-250 instead of 300-350. This weighs more than playing #1 vs #30. I think playing Kentucky and Chowder St is tougher than Minnesota and EMU, but the calculations would differ.

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UofM Die Hard …

November 20th, 2014 at 12:38 PM ^

makes the young guys grow up quickly.  All these ridiculous non-conf games get us ready for the B1G. 

 

Arizona is so freaking good, that game at thier place gets me to cringe a bit every time I think about it. 

 

 

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LSAClassOf2000

November 20th, 2014 at 12:44 PM ^

TeamRankings has their own algorithm and SOS ranking here - LINK - for Michigan.

There are several different version of the SOS metrics that they use here, but interestingly they rank Michigan in "Strength Of Schedule" among all of Division I at #270 and #8 in the Big Ten, which is actually similar to Massey's current assessment (again, past data in these algorithms). For Future and Season SOS, the site ranks them at #20 and #22 overall respectiely, or #8 and #9 in the conference on each. 

Anyway, their breakout of this is worth a view, I think. 

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mtlcarcajou

November 20th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

"Playing good teams in hostile environments helps you down the road."

Course we are not playing all those teams in hostile environments, but still.

Always wondered how baby seals makes you a better team down the road.

Joined: 02/19/2011

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JayMo4

November 20th, 2014 at 12:50 PM ^

I fully expect a regular season somewhat parallel to last year, in that we'll struggle some in the non-conference and then do very well in the Big 10.  

The non-con slate is pretty rough, and the Big 10 schedule is softer this year mainly because a couple of would-be home-and-homes with tougher teams have been replaced by, say, Rutgers.  

Also, we once again have a young team that is going to need some time to gel, but comes with a lot of potential.  So we should be more prepared to face a Wisconsin or MSU in February than we will be to play a Syracuse or Arizona in December.

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Perkis-Size Me

November 20th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

We might lose some of these games, in particular the one at Arizona, but it makes this team so much better off in the long run. They'll be battle tested by the time the conference slate rolls around, and if the previous 2 years are any indication, the team will start peaking come March.



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