James Franklin on the game
An interesting take, I think:
Q: You mentioned calling a game to get the quarterback into rhythm. What was Michigan's defense doing to make it kind of difficult to get Drew (Allar) into rhythm?
A: The same thing they've done against everybody all year long. That's one of the best defenses in college football. We've got one of the best defenses in college football. They make it challenging up front, their front seven is able to get pressure and to get sacks but not a whole lot against us today. But about their coverage, we made a couple of throws that if the ball's not delivered right, one ended up being a pass interference on them and one we were fortunate that it wasn't an interception. Your ball location is critical in these types of games. We had a couple of shots called but we were waiting for a specific look at a specific defense and weren't able to do that, so we weren't able to loosen them up from a coverage standpoint to help with the more consistent higher percentage throws.
Here's the whole interview:
November 11th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
"... but we were waiting for a specific look at a specific defense and weren't able to do that."
Klatt mentioned something about this very early on, that Michigan had a few new looks defensively. I'll be curious to see more about this in this week's Defensive UFR.
November 11th, 2023 at 5:58 PM ^
Hmmm, are you saying coaches scout the opposition via game tapes and can adjust plays when they get a certain look? Gosh, and here I thought you needed to be able to steal their signs to know their intentions.
November 11th, 2023 at 7:17 PM ^
Punish PSU but have Franklin sit out the next game. (Then watch their offense explode!)
November 11th, 2023 at 10:19 PM ^
Shhhhh.
Don't tell Matt Rhule
November 11th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
They had our signs and were waiting for us to flash them
November 11th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
TBH, I was overall impressed by Penn State’s defense. They forced a lot of punts, and played at a high level. Penn State’s offense though - straight doo-doo.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:05 PM ^
No joke. I thought we would have more success on offense against PSU. But that defense is definitely as advertised. OTOH, I felt we could've opened things up a little and created some success with a handful of quick slants and short TE passes. We abandoned any semblance of a passing game in the second half and I am fine with that, because W. We let Blake and Donovan eat today and they took full advantage. Maybe this is the game that gives the running game a boost.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
Penn state is going to strangle whoever they play in the bowl. If frames doesnt bitch out and throw it 42 times he might get an easy win.
Too bad I used to like rooting for all the non OSU/MSU big ten teams. Those days are over. Probably wont even turn them on because i wont be motivated to cheer against them either. Its way more apathy then anything else. The kind of thing you dont want from a 2 million person fanbase.
November 12th, 2023 at 8:44 AM ^
I hear you. I always used to root for the Big Ten when they went bowling. If they did good , it reflected well on Michigan. Those days are long gone.
November 11th, 2023 at 7:51 PM ^
We barely tried to score the entire 2nd half though. Almost as if to say, "you know what we're going to do, but you can't stop it."
And they barely did. I didnt love how far this running every play business went, but we toyed with them. Embarassed em.
I wouldn't give their defense much credit today. It was above average imo. Dassit
November 11th, 2023 at 8:21 PM ^
We didn’t pass in the second half and destroyed them. Game plan that Ohio.
November 11th, 2023 at 9:03 PM ^
Yes--I know that time of possession is widely viewed to be an overrated stat, but not in this game. This was the psychopath drowning the ferret.
November 12th, 2023 at 11:42 AM ^
We ran for over 200 yards at over 5 ypc against the top rated rushing defense in the country.
The entire season to this point appears to have been coaches working on the passing game and on diversity in the running game.
I suppose we were always capable of turning the dominant ground game back on when it came time to do so.
It feels like this team can really beat OSU for a 3rd straight year and compete for the national title.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:25 PM ^
Allar is not good.
November 11th, 2023 at 10:10 PM ^
Sean Clifford: "Miss me yet?"
November 11th, 2023 at 6:28 PM ^
The Big 10 in general, offense has been the worst in the conference that I can remember. Not one powerhouse offensively.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
A lot of those dudes will be NFL guys. King and Robinson are Day One-two types.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
Their ability to blow up Barnhart and effectively end the passing game early on was a little surprising. Okay - a lot surprising. I mean, I knew they'd be stout, but I didn't think they would make Michigan that one-dimensional. I don't think they really needed to, but the decision to out-Iowa PSU was somewhat forced by PSU trying to Iowa the game. They never backed off the pass defense and kept giving run looks.
Michigan will always be happy to oblige a run-friendly defense...
November 11th, 2023 at 9:06 PM ^
True. But also we ran the ball 32 times in a row. We could have won by 20+. But we chose the survive and advance road.
November 11th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
My immediate take post game was that PSU has a defense you can win it all with and a decent-good MAC offense. They remind me a lot of a few of the earlier teams Jim had where a key element or 3 was missing on an otherwise terrific team. They are a top-15 team on defense alone. I was that impressed.
November 11th, 2023 at 10:57 PM ^
State College is Iowa City East.
November 11th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
fuck frames.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:33 PM ^
Extend Frames!
November 11th, 2023 at 10:36 PM ^
Although Sam doesn't use the same verbiage, I'd have to say he probably wouldn't disagree.
November 12th, 2023 at 3:12 AM ^
"You're paying Cristal prices for a Boone's Farm coach."
Well played, Sam.
November 11th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
This defense is at 1997 levels. PSU does have a decent offense and they only got 200 some yards of offense and 15 points. Our passing defense is tops in the country. Bring it on Marvin Harrison.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:03 PM ^
PSU offense is not decent.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^
They average 40.2 points per game. They might not be Oregon/Washington but it's definitely a stiffer test than a Rutgers, Minnesota or MSU.
November 12th, 2023 at 12:41 AM ^
Look who they averaged that 40.2 points against......some really subpar defenses and teams. The only 2 decent defenses they played all year was ours and OSU's and were totally shut down by both. PSU scored late TDs against both as the final scores were very misleadingf
November 11th, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
Correct. # 21 SP+ offense in the country is more than decent.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
11 Big Ten teams think its down right potent. Two think its white washed Iowa.
November 12th, 2023 at 11:44 AM ^
The 15 points they scored against us was the most of anybody we've played this season. And it required multiple risky 4th down conversions, lol.
November 11th, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
But wait, I thought Connor Stalions was worth 21 points, right Frames?
November 11th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh is worth 30
November 11th, 2023 at 6:39 PM ^
Dang. I guess Frames is saying that if Day doesn’t hire a PI firm, Michigan wins this game by 30.
November 11th, 2023 at 5:55 PM ^
Just watched his postgame presser. One reporter really pushed him on why he went for 2 twice. The reporter wouldn't back down and Frames was obviously pissed. He stared him down during a pretty uncomfortable silence after answering the question.
Starts at 7:03
November 11th, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^
First one seemed defensible but unnecessary.
Second seemed like an obvious go for 2, despite the announcers semi-sensical commentary
November 11th, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^
Completely wrong to go for 2 on the second from an analytic approach. You take the one and then you have still a one possession game. You don’t get it you are still 2 possessions.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:40 PM ^
Nope. You go for 2 early so you know, if you miss it, what you need to do after it. Postponing that play doesn't help you — it just takes information away from you. Remember, for the purpose of this analysis you have to posit them missing it. Otherwise what you're saying is, "it's better to make it on the second possession than miss it on the first one," which ... yeah, obviously.
But assuming you're going to miss the conversation, wouldn't you rather know that you need three scores earlier, when you can adjust your play calling, than later, when you're out of time?
November 11th, 2023 at 6:45 PM ^
Nope. If you have 5 mins left then maybe you are right. But with 2 mins left and 2 timeouts in your pocket. What is the prob of 2 pt success? If you fail then, what is the prob you get a stop then score a TD quickly then onside successfully and score again? Compare that to get a stop score then convert a 2 pt. It’s not complicated. Going for 2 there effectively ended the game because you are against the clock.
November 11th, 2023 at 8:36 PM ^
Nope. When the conversion is missed with 2 min left, the following strategy is different. If you get the onside kick, you just drive to FG range and kick, then try another onside kick. If you wait and you’re down 8, you have to drive down and get a TD, maybe taking virtually all of your available time, and if you don’t get the conversion then, you’re screwed. It is better to know how many times you have to score so you can plan accordingly. There is zero benefit to waiting. Your argument that “the game is over when you miss the conversion” is more true if you miss it after the second TD because there is likely too little time left at that point to get an onside kick and get into FG range.
That said, the 2nd quarter 2 point attempt was idiotic.
November 11th, 2023 at 8:43 PM ^
In either scenario you have to convert one 2 pt play. How is it advantageous to make it the second attempt? The only thing that's changing is that you have less time left in the game.
November 11th, 2023 at 11:42 PM ^
No, that is flatly incorrect. You go for 2 when you are down 9 so that you know whether you need to score once or twice.
People like to say that when you're down 8 you're only down 1 score. That is incorrect. You are either down 1 score or you are down 2 scores. You do not know which. Most teams convert 2pt conversions at about a ~40% rate, so chances are more than likely that you are actually down 2 scores.
Sometimes, you need to kick an onside kick regardless of whether you get the conversion or not. For example, 1 minute left and you have no TOs. In those cases it really doesn't matter what you do, and I can see the argument to kicking to get down 8 so that your players mentally feel like they are still in the game in a way that they wouldn't if down 9.
But if there's enough time in the game to meaningfully adjust strategy, like there was today, you HAVE to go when you're down 9.
I also hate when people like Klatt call this "analytics". It is just pure common sense to me
November 11th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
Tbf the second one was straightforward You've got to get a 2-pointer, either then or after the next TD, so may as well do it then.
But the first one was a pure Frames decision - and it forced them to have to go for 2 later on.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
I agree you need it but nobody, except Frames goes for it there…
November 11th, 2023 at 8:40 PM ^
Frames has a way of being both ultraconservative and overly aggressive within the same game. His decision to go for it on 4th in his own territory with over 4 minutes left was also dumb given Michigan’s own offensive struggles.
November 12th, 2023 at 12:47 AM ^
I think it was a fine decision for PSU to go for it - that aggressiveness in the first half literally kept them in the game, and his players rose to the challenge each time. Even if he gets the ball back reasonably fast, that could be with 2 minutes left + timeouts, or maybe 3 minutes left with no timeouts. His offense showed no ability to march down the field that fast.
November 11th, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
I disagree. Always hold off going for two until absolutely necessary. The game is over and team completely deflated. Always keep it a one possession game if possible
November 11th, 2023 at 6:49 PM ^
Yes. The game is over if you fail. It’s so obvious.
November 11th, 2023 at 11:01 PM ^
If you kick the can down the road, the game is even more over if you fail the second one. You want to know as early as possible whether you're going to need two additional scores or one. If you find out after the first touchdown with 2 minutes left, it's bad news, but you at least have 2 minutes of desperation time. If you find out after the second touchdown with, say, 15 seconds left, your window for victory is much smaller.