How Many Football Games Will Michigan Win This Year? (Poll)
I got bored and started to wonder how many games the board thinks Michigan will win this year. Link below.
Enough to pass the time until basketball season
This will be a brutal season. The team will be very talented, particularly if Shea is eligible to run the offense and if we can find a tackle to protect him.
However the strength of schedule is absolutely brutal. I'm predicting a 9 win season and more moping, uninformed bitching, and general obnoxiousness from fans.
don't think so. If they play all the games possible, it would be a total of 15 games. So, either they would drop one in the regular season and still make the CFP or they would lose in the national title game, right? Those are two ways for them to win 14.
April 13th, 2018 at 11:14 PM ^
12 in '19 including a bowl win
162. or whatever the knowledge says.
More than they lose.
Schedule is a bitch but they'll be better enough to overcome a couple tough road wins. (ND is a win, they're phony as hell)
8 without Patterson.
Last season looked prettier at this time. The key for 2018 is going to be player development and ensuring Patterson is a go, since the schedule is going to be even more a bitch than last year, playing 5 teams in the top 12, 3 of those on the road. Michigan ranks #10 and #11 in S&P+ and FPI, respectively.
S&P+ Expected Win Probabilities (Mean = 8.30 wins):
FPI Expected Win Probabilities (Mean = 8.43 wins):
I'd argue that ND ranked in the top 10 in both metrics is a bit of a stretch. And I still believe MSU isn't the 10-3 outfit we saw last year, but that's still a schedule where 9-10 wins would be a pretty impressive accomplishment.
two qbs with a total of 4 years under Harbaugh, working on no. 5 and the possibility of one joining that is probably far ahead of both right now. Our RB situation is good and our receiving corp, even if it starts out slowly will improve greatly as the season wears on. This offense will be the equilvalent of 2016 pre-IA, All our questions were on the offensive side of the ball and here's what you have on the D:
You've got a lot, a whole hell of a lot of returners to a great defense which could turn out to be damn scary. Our DEs will make it almost impossible for qbs to get comfort and this applies to every team we face. We have an AA lber who is going to be among the top three in the nation in terms of tackles, tfls, hurries, qb sacks, et. al. Harbaugh is a proud man and despite a very green OL and sub mediocre qb play, he does not make excuses about an 8 win season. Neither does he stand on it as acceptable. Look for a two win gain merely because he won't accept less. Bet what you want on 10 wins. I'm going to, and if the team performs as I suspect, I might make some late season bets that it'll be higher.
I forgot to mention that Brown is going to have the defense punish NE's offensive due to nothing more than Frost's claim of a few years ago, so that game should be among the most fun to watch.
these metrics really can't account for patterson though, right?
assuming he is eligible, is there a way to insert him into your formuals?
8-4 regular + second-tier bowl win
MGoBlog—along with a substantial part of the Michigan fanbase—will be collectively screaming for Harbaugh's head on a platter after the OSU game.
*It's a revealing picture of the current Michigan fan psychology that I can posit a pretty depressing scenario about the upcoming season and not get a single downvote.
My statistical analysis is our mean is 10-2. I only looked at one game and concluded we will be Notre Dame regardles if Shea plays or not.
All depends on how much improvement we can get out of the QB and OL units.
If Shea is eligible and proves to be the real deal, and if the OL can at least become average, I'd say 10-2, with an outside shot at 11-1. Have a hard time seeing us beat OSU until I physically see it happen, and then we'll probably drop a game somewhere else too just because that's the nature of the game. If we do go 10-2, the two losses had better not be MSU AND OSU.
If Shea isn't eligible, or if he tanks for whatever reason and the OL hasn't improved at all, I could see the team sinking to 7-5, or if all hell breaks loose maybe even 6-6 if Frost can right the ship at Nebraska in one year.
8 season wins with potential for 9 with the bowl.
My excitement level about recent Michigan Football peaked at kickoff of the game at Iowa in 2016. Since then it, and the team’s performance, has seemed to be in steady decline. This is the least excited I have been about Michigan football since the late Hoke era (though not nearly that bad). At this point I expect mediocrity until some evidence appears of improvement.
6 or 7 wins.
We really need to start to turn things around this year. If we lose to ND and then blow a game before Wisconsin this will get ugly quick.
I voted 9, maybe 10 with a bowl win.
We know the defense is probably going to kick ass once again, and I don't see us doing any worse than last year because of it. However, we've gotta see some significant improvement on the offensive side of the ball for me to think we'll win more than that.
It could be a crappy season but I still renewed my tix today! #suckaforblue
So long as Ohio State is an elite Big Ten team, Michigan will never beat them unless the Big Ten actually forces the referees to call a fair and balanced game. As long as they CAN contend for the national title, Michigan won't be allowed to spoil their chance at a playoff spot. Refs improve to 3-0 against Michigan in The Game.
Schedule is hard enough to warrant picking another loss out of PSU/Notre Dame/Wisconsin.
Harbaugh remembered this year that Michigan is supposed to lose its bowl games, so the tradition will continue until Michigan becomes elite enough to make the playoff.
It was such a shame when the referees made John O'Korn throw that terrible interception and miss about a dozen wide open receivers. And when the referees caused Metellus to drop that interception.
April 13th, 2018 at 10:54 PM ^
As anyone watching the game would know, so did OSU. When OSU gets gifted 2 holding calls on plays that aren't holding at all while being able to get away with holding all game (both defensive backs and O-Line), they can win despite playing poorly.
Michigan needed perfect play to maintain a lead for 2 straight years. You're either blind or an OSU fan if you think otherwise.
April 14th, 2018 at 12:00 AM ^
Why did you remind me of that Metellus drop
8 is the expectation.
Waiting for Jim to get them to play over their heads a season like John B does in basketball.
Football
Press = 4th place Big Ten Reality = 4th place
Basketball
Press = 5th place Big Ten Reality = Big Ten champs and in the Finals
PROS:
- Defense should be better than last year
- WRs/TEs/RBs should be better than last year
- Interior OL shoudl be better than last year
- Kicking should be better than last year
CONS:
- We still don't know if Patterson will be allowed to play
- We still don't know if Newsome will be healthy enough to play
- We currently project to start JBB or vapors at LT, and Peters at QB
- Our schedule is appreciably harder this year than last year
Schedule is harder, but I wouldn't say considerably harder.
@ OSU 2018 > home OSU 2017. I'll give you that
Whats our 2nd toughest game? @ MSU? @ Notre Dame? Both tough no doubt, but going to Happy Valley last year against #2 was tougher than bost of those. We've only been whooped like that one other time under harbaugh, in his first year.
3rd toughest. I'd put last years @ Wisconsin on par with the other one of the two above
Then you got 2018 Penn State and Wisconsin at home, compared to 2017 Florida and the monsoon game. Easy with the retrospectoscope to note how bad Florida was, but on paper that was a tough game
Depending on the losses, that could still buy us a trip to Indy. Hope we go undefeated, but a lot of tough road games. Undefeated will take some good fortune, but we are due for some I guess.