How do you divide up rush/pass and touches/targets w/70 offensive plays?

Submitted by Yessir on September 10th, 2019 at 3:46 PM

If there are 70 offensive plays, how do you think they should be divided up? 

I like 35 runs and 35 passes.  Too simplistic? 

Of which DPJ, Nico and Tariq should be targeted 25 times.  Maybe 10, 8, 7? Too many?  The other 10 to TE and screen passes.  So 35 designed pass plays.  

I'm including RPO's in the runs and hope ZC gets about 25 touches with the remaining rbs picking up the rest.  Really like Turner, but ZC separated himself from the group.  Would like ZC to get more, but he's a freshman and when he's not running the ball he's been picking up a blitzing linebacker coming at him with a full head of steam.  Just trying to keep ZC hits to a minimum.  

Way off? 

Yessir

September 10th, 2019 at 9:05 PM ^

I'm more along the lines of we have fantastic receivers and I'm going to make you cover them.  And once you cover them, I'm going to smash ZC in the line.  

But I could be wrong.  Just tiptoe around the defense or let the defense dictate what we do, might be the answer.  

UMfan21

September 10th, 2019 at 5:57 PM ^

Agreed, but in general, given our WRs, I prefer a pass heavy offense.

 

I'd say 40% run 60% pass in general.  I really think our passing game could open up the run.  Teams stack the box and run blitz us because they dont respect our passing game.  Loosen that up and Charbonnet runs wild.

Yessir

September 10th, 2019 at 4:15 PM ^

Good point I agree on QB keepers.  I didn't account for that in the RPOs.  So the remaining RBs won't get 10. 

Edit: What do you think about scripting first 15 plays?  Forcing the D to cover the deep ball immediately. 

 

Blue4LifeNC

September 10th, 2019 at 3:53 PM ^

Would be nice to see Shea keep 4 or 5 times a game to keep the D honest (see what Army did to the lack of Shea pulling).  I'd say Nico needs 10-15 targets a game - he's just too tall and has too good of hands to ignore.

Jimmyisgod

September 10th, 2019 at 3:54 PM ^

You don’t.  You call the right play for the situation in front of you every time. And the QB makes the reads he makes and throws to the proper one. If that means so and so didn’t get any targets so be it. 

NittanyFan

September 10th, 2019 at 9:15 PM ^

I agree with you.  +1.  Scripting plays seems like it has gone out of fashion.  But I still think it makes sense.

For your first 15-20 plays, distribute your plays and targets fairly evenly.  See what works, how the defense reacts, what their game-day weaknesses (which are often different from their weaknesses as seen on film) are. 

Go from there.

northernmich

September 10th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

Probably like 42 pass 28 run give or take a few. If we are up by 35+ in the last half of the fourth quarter then probably just stick to running the ball. 10 targets to DPJ, 8 to Nico, 8 to Tarik. The last 16 can be divided up among the rest (a few RB screens in their as well). As for runs, 18 for Zach, 6 for Wilson, and the last 6 divided among BVS, Wilson and a keep or two from Patterson.

joeyb

September 10th, 2019 at 3:55 PM ^

The goal should be to maximize yards per play. That means, in general, if YPA is higher than YPC, then you pass more and vice versa. When that doesn't apply is when you see an opening to increase one of those numbers, e.g. you're passing a ton and they're only keeping 5 in the box and/or rushing 3. Targeting a breakdown ahead of the game is silly.

joeyb

September 10th, 2019 at 6:47 PM ^

My point is that if you have 9 plays for 0 yards, do something else. It's when they start overcommitting to that something else and you run that other play again that you get the 75-yard TD. You're right that you can't look exactly at YPA and YPC because after that long play, it changes the formula, but modified versions that account for explosive plays would be ideal. It still doesn't change the fact that coming in and expecting to run and pass in a certain ratio is not a great idea.

DualThreat

September 10th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^

60 (actual) RPOs.  Then 5 gives on FB dives at the goal line for the (minimum) 5 touchdowns we'd score going with this approach.  And then 5 Rex Grossman bombs to Black, Collins, or DPJ because the worst that will happen is a 15 yard PI flag on the defense.

MGoBlue96

September 10th, 2019 at 4:38 PM ^

I don't think there is a set answer. It should be based on what the defense is doing/giving you. Unfortunately Michigan has always seemed to want to stick to their preconceived gameplan and not adopt this approach. If the defense wants to give you easy completions or leave overmatched db's one on one you should hammer the pass, or if they don't leave enough bodies in the box run the ball until they change what they are doing. Why this concept has seemed to elude most Michigan coaches over the years is beyond me. Just stuck in the old school mentality of we are going to impose our will no matter what I suppose.

drjaws

September 10th, 2019 at 4:53 PM ^

45 pass - 25 run

10 to DPJ, 10 to Nico, 10 to Tarik, 10 to slot receivers / TEs and 5 as screens to RB

18 to Zach, 4 to Wilson and 3 QB to keep the D honest for the few times we do run the ball

 

This results in our 3 NFL WRs getting 10 targets each, Zach getting 20-ish touches.  It also hinges on having a gutsy QB who doesn't get jittery in the pocket and can accurately throw a ball, and I don't know if we have one of those on our roster

Panther72

September 10th, 2019 at 5:50 PM ^

I  will say 31 passes and 45 runs against army is heavy running the ball. However, if it gave the defense in this game a needed rest I'm good with it. I don't think we can dictate the  run/pass ratio given no knowledge of defense schemes and flow of the game. If the OL is blowing people off the ball be run heavy. If the WR are running open, throw. And throw to open receivers. There needs be no favorite target unless he's the one open the most.

turtleboy

September 10th, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^

Depends on what's lined up on the other side of the ball, and how well your players are executing play calls. Army plays a very different offense than Oklahoma, both for good reason.

My simple answer: you're going to face more than a handful of 3rd downs, make it 3rd and short by any means necessary to increase your chances of converting. Preferably 50/50 run pass or RPO or whatever keeps the defense from teeing off on plays. 

JDeanAuthor

September 10th, 2019 at 6:10 PM ^

Whatever moves the ball.

I don't subscribe to the mentality of "manball, come hell or high water" or "pass-pass-pass, and run once in a blue moon."  You play to the strengths of your team and to the weaknesses of the opponent.  

Every GOOD offense should be at the very least solid in both running and passing, solid enough to where they can use whichever one best exploits the opposing defense.  

If the opposing defense has trouble with the pass, then exploit them with the pass, period.  Why would you run the ball against them, knowing that they are better against the run than against the pass?  (This btw is why I've never been of the "manball or bust" mentality; I remember seeing games where Michigan would run the ball "because that's the Michigan thing to do" and it cost us games *cough* Lloyd Carr *cough*).  

You PLAY WHAT WORKS. If it's "manball," so be it. If it's Rich Rod's "zone read," so be it.  If it's Mike Leach's Air Raid, so be it.  But you use whatever works, and don't ignore an option just because it's not "who you are" as an offense (which is baloney anyway).  If you're a one-trick-pony on offense, don't be surprise if that pony kicks you off and runs away.  

 

Dorothy_ Mantooth

September 10th, 2019 at 6:36 PM ^

here's a novel approach, don't turn the ball over so much and therefore, unless you're many creating a lot of 50+ yard  offensive plays (of which I'm perfectly OK with), you're going to get more O-plays...

AlbanyBlue

September 10th, 2019 at 6:51 PM ^

43 passes, 27 runs. Ideally this will vary, because many plays will be RPOs and could go either way. 

Runs (27): Zach gets 16 carries, a few less if the game is out of hand. Turner gets 7, more if out of hand. I'm assuming a couple short-yardage with BVS (wish it was Mason) or jet sweeps and a couple designed QB runs.

Passes (43): DPJ / Black / Collins get 27 targets between the 3. Vary between short, intermediate, and deep shots. Bell and the slot receivers get 8 targets total. 5 targets to the TEs, and a few swing passes or wheels to the RBs.

Essentially 40% run / 60% pass.

Hucklebyforpresident

September 10th, 2019 at 6:53 PM ^

Agree with “unwavering”. Start with a game plan and adjust it from there to what works. Or in the case of Army’s offense- run the same play every down and run it well. 

I played high school ball for a MHSAA hall of famer... a couple State titles and lots of wins. We would have a game plan of what works, then we’d run it until the opposition could stop it. Many times we would march down the field running a single play, 4,5,6,7 yards at a time and the next time we’d have the ball ... same play, other side of the formation. It’s actually funny to watch, if you’re a connoisseur of such things. I found Army fun to watch. It brought back my youth. I fully realize we have evolved beyond that but it’s nice to see it be successful still. 

To really answer the question... I believe all coaches would typically like to see something near 50/50 by the end of the year. 

vanarbor

September 10th, 2019 at 9:02 PM ^

Gattis and Harbaugh have gotta trust the QB, and trust the WRs, and continue to trust them through mistakes. Get them in a groove and don't look back for the rest of the season. Regardless of a fumble, interception etc... NEVER start running it like we did vs Army unless it's a blowout. It's always tempting to dial it back every time something bad happens but good things are bound to happen more than bad things with the talent we have.

Of course expected yards per play isn't everything, but at some point, you gotta admit that the 3-4 YPC when we feed it to our RBs is nothing close to the 7-8 YPA we can potentially get through the air. I know it's very uncommon to throw much more than you run, but for fucks sake we have 4 potential NFL receivers. GET THEM THE BALL. The running game will come naturally when the box isn't clogged because other teams know you're too scared to pass.

In terms of ratio, I'd go 65-35 pass to run, which has gotta be one of the highest in the NCAA. If there's a season to do so, it's this season. Our defense isn't gonna stop everybody, and we're gonna play from behind sometimes. Fuck time of possession just fucking air it out. 

Sauce Castillo

September 11th, 2019 at 8:13 AM ^

I would imagine there is some game theory going into an opponent like "this is the way we see it playing out and we'll be able to run the ball more", but if I'm thinking about our personnel I'd be looking for a 60/40 pass/run split where DPJ/Nico/Black get 85-90% of the targets and Charbonnet/Turner split is 80/20.

My bigger gripe is why our playbook isn't more multiple in the looks we give. Watching all these NFL games this past week, some of the play designs were great. What happened to the quick screens for a free 5-8 yards, deep TE crosses, etc. from the first 2 yrs? Did that leave when Jedd left?

One thing you notice about the patriots, especially in the playoffs, and OSU in the game the past few yrs, is that their offense comes in, sees a weakness in the D they want to expose, and they go after it until it doesn't work. Wow, what gd simplistic and efficient approach.

Section41

September 11th, 2019 at 9:29 AM ^

It's usually situational. If the run game isn't working early and they find themselves in more 3rd and long situations than they'd like, they're going to throw the ball more. And if they're ahead later in the game and Charbonnet is in a good rhythm, they'll ride that and maybe take one shot downfield if the moment is right and the opponent is loading the box. I mean if it's late in the 4th quarter and the game is close and they have 35 pass plays and 34 run plays, they aren't going to run the ball just to hit that benchmark. So they probably have an ideal target for a run/pass ratio, but that can vary greatly depending on the opponent's strengths and weakness, and most importantly - the situation.

 

Also, Josh Gattis' philosophy of "taking what the defense gives you" suggests that they intend for it to be fluid.

 

TL;DR - yeah, too simplistic.