How is the Big Ten Doing with Covid?
I took a look at how the Big Ten was doing with Covid over the last three weeks. Overall, Michigan looks to be doing very well with the significant caveat that we are not really doing much testing.
I broke it into three groups based on the amount of testing going on as it varies dramatically. Michigan is in group one – not testing much (less than 3K test over the last three weeks). Group two have done 10,000 to 34,000 tests over the last three weeks and group 3 is Illinois with 256,000 tests completed.
Cases among group 1 are as follows
Northwestern – 23
Michigan 64 – We are doing well but the limited testing is a question
Minnesota 104 – note they only provided testing data for one week – 2,600
Michigan State 135
Nebraska 485 – out of 3,000 test
Iowa 1,642 – They indicate they are only listing self-reported tests only and don’t seem to have a testing program
Cases among group 2
Purdue – 272
Penn State – 433
Notre Dame – 548
Wisconsin – 915
Indiana – 1226 – Greek house positivity rate is 24.56% - Around 17k test completed
Ohio State – 1607 – Most cases in this group though they have done 34K test vs. 10K to 20K for the rest of the group
Cases among group 3
Illinois – 1,456 – they have done 256,000 test!
Hard to draw conclusions from this but maybe Iowa is the worst followed by Indiana?
September 11th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^
does the program with the most test win the big ten, or is it the program with the least positive cases per 1000 tests administered?
I just want to understand what i'm cheering for.
September 11th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
Michigan, we always cheer for Michigan. Beyond that our "rival" Illinois. Its hard to not be impressed that they have come up with a way to test everyone regularly and then use that data to give their school the best shot at controlling the virus and staying open.
Overall though my takeaway is more about how inconsistent the testing and reporting is. Once you dig into the data from across the schools even a little bit you quickly conclude we probably don’t know what is going on at most of these schools with the exception of Illinois.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
WOW, so it looks like Commissioner Warren traded Rutgers and Maryland away for Notre Dame! I'm o.k. with that!
Reaction from Rutgers' fan....
September 11th, 2020 at 12:16 PM ^
Notre Dame included due to proximity. What’s a Rutger?
September 11th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
I wonder if the numbers correlate to how hard the area the school is in was hit in March/ April. With SE Michigan being hit hard I wonder if the rise in cases will be slower.
September 11th, 2020 at 11:34 AM ^
I conclude from this data that OSU - its students, fans and alumni - are as gross and diseased as a $2 hooker in 1882...
September 11th, 2020 at 12:09 PM ^
$2 was a lot in 1882.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
Yes, but back then even the high-end hookers didn't have access to antibiotics or condoms or, you know, running water. So...
September 11th, 2020 at 1:14 PM ^
Kinda like hitting the Gem Saloon in Deadwood.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
I was going to say that OSU is like a bowl of hot diarrhea.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
Ah, that old joke....
O$U fans think they are hot shit in a champaign glass but they are really lukewarm diarrhea in a dixie cup.
September 11th, 2020 at 11:37 AM ^
Issues with transparency need to start here. I get we want school presidents to be transparent with what went into their decision. But coaches calling for transparency when some programs aren't willing to report data rings very hollow to me.
And I know these are numbers for the schools in general, not the athletic programs. But I know ESPN sent out a survey to coaches a couple weeks ago and less than half the B1G programs gave full testing numbers.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
Nice season last year for Wolves. How is 2020/2021 gonna shake out?
September 11th, 2020 at 11:47 AM ^
Mark Schissel
September 11th, 2020 at 12:00 PM ^
If the goalpost is "prevent hospitalizations and deaths", how are we doing on that front? Are there any hospitalizations due to COVID at any B1G campus? Is everyone tied for first on that front?
I know some folk won't like those questions, but I think they are legitimate ones.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
The standard is number of positive tests. You raise a valid point but will get knocked down.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:24 PM ^
The problem is there is so much variability in testing volume, type of testing (there are different tests going around with different sensitivities or rates of false positive), and criteria for positive cases (I know you said the standard is tests not cases, but they get conflated too often), that comparing positive cases/tests across time, schools, states, countries, whatever is nearly useless. As the OP notes, U-M currently is looking good but there are huge questions about whether we are testing enough.
We know a large portion of cases are asymptomatic - I'm not going to cite a number because no one has presented one that's convincing. In that situation, you're going to get more cases when you have more testing. As more tests became available, we moved from testing only those symptomatic, to those with known exposures, to those with potential exposures, to now nearly anyone can get a test in many cases. I signed up for one later today with my only reason being that I'm travelling next week. Of course a wider net will catch more cases.
NittanyFan asks if hospitalizations are rising as well, which is important in the context of "are people likely to die from the virus soon?" It's a legitimate question. On the other hand, in the longer-term context of what will slow the spread, case counts are important too. We need to focus on both, and not discount one measure in favor of the other, since both are related, and relevant to different goals and analyses. They should always be shown together for a more comprehensive picture.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
There have been roughly 50 million infections in the US to date...why are we talking about slowing the spread? The spread is waning because it's largely over. Governor Cuomo was on television saying it's 'inexplicable' how New York cases have not gone up as they re opened. Said experts are baffled. Well, it's telling that his experts were baffled, but the answer is that it wont be coming back in any important way in New York City because it ran its course.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
Man - I thought you were kidding about Cuomo using the word "inexplicable."
I found the video. He did use that word!
That is the person making decisions that affect millions of lives. A person who doesn't even understand the basics of how the Rt formula works.
Sigh. No wonder I feel hopeless at times.
September 11th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^
the worst part is that he clearly thinks it's true. This means that his advisors are at least telling him this is the case. Unless they're just that cynical.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:13 PM ^
I get that and agree that we can operate schools even with a fair number of active cases due to the demographics of your typical college campus. I would not agree as some argue that cases are meaningless. If cases get totally out of control you will eventually have hospital capacity problems even with the low hospitalization rate among the typical campus demographic along with too much spread to adjacent vulnerable demographics. Overall, no school appears to be a complete shit show with maybe the exception of a few schools that could be trending in that direction.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
I know that I've created some angst here when I've accused people of having a "zero-tolerance policy as regards CV cases."
But if this is viewed as a "game" between the B1G schools in terms of who is closest to zero cases, then we could be on that slope toward zero-tolerance.
Though it's hard to exactly define "fair number of active cases", I am aligned with your first sentence.
September 11th, 2020 at 12:57 PM ^
Might be easier to understand as a percentage of covid cases per tests performed.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:09 PM ^
Interesting comparison. It's too early to make any definitive judgment—a statement that may keep being apt for months—but it does suggest differences. Thanks for posting.
Meanwhile, I'm worried about my niece at Indiana, working with the football team.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
Honestly, all the conference schools save Iowa and Indiana seem to have decent reads on their positive rates. UM needs to up testing and I assume they will; I'd be interested to see how their contact tracing is going.
September 11th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Can we post hospitalization stats instead of case stats when we're talking about a virus that is almost entirely benign among the age group in question?
September 12th, 2020 at 1:01 AM ^
this is the softest body post ever - hit the weights, drink a shake and come scrap me bub. Who cares about testing? Unless were talking about a test of endurance in the sack with ur bae - give me some joe milton touchdowns. Lets play some ball! Go blue 4L