Historians: Last time an unranked team with losing record was favored to beat an undefeated ranked team
When the line came out on this game, someone asked when the last time a 4-0 ranked team was an underdog to an unranked 1-2 team.
It would have to a scenario like this one in which a quality team lost a couple of early games but was still favorably looked upon by the odds makers.
Just in Michigan history, my mind immediately went to the 2007 team that had a lot of talent, began the year #5 dropped their first two games (we won't talk about how or to whom) and then rattled off 8 straight.
It almost happened that year. Michigan was 1-2 when they hosted #10 3-0 PSU but were just barely underdogs (+2.5) and Michigan did win 14-9 (the Mallet intro game).
1998 Michigan team would have been a good candidate as well. The defending national champs of course dropped their first two games (to ranked opponents like Wisconsin's two losses) and were an obviously very talented two loss team so they were still favored in each of their next two games despite having a losing record (when 1-2 they played and beat unranked MSU). In fact they were favored in each game until game 9 v 9th ranked PSU when they were +2.5 and won 27-0.
I imagine this is not uncommon for a 1-2 team to be favored against an undefeated ranked team, but anyone know the last time? My non-Michigan knowledge is limited.
September 30th, 2021 at 5:35 PM ^
Was Syracuse ranked? All I remember was Donovan McNabb running all over and coming off the field laughing as I sat behind their bench. My 2nd most depressing game behind Sparty 2017.
September 30th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^
I remember that. I was there too. The first of many running qbs to rip us to shreds
September 30th, 2021 at 5:59 PM ^
Rickey Foggie says, "Hi!"
September 30th, 2021 at 6:39 PM ^
I was at that game. I was cold. The Wolverines were uninspired. Foggie was a pain in the neck. It a was a dark and gloomy day.
September 30th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
That was my first UM game as a kid.
it was awful
September 30th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
Ricky Foggie game was either my 1st or 2nd game when I was about 10 or 11, uggh.
September 30th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^
Johnny Johnson, Illinois ‘93.
We shut him down the next year, thank God.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:11 PM ^
I watched McNabb run all over Boston College at Alumni Stadium. They had no answers for that Syracuse offense. McNabb was lethal in college--Jalen Hurts skill set reminds me of him a lot, except McNabb was better. And McNabb was a pretty good pro QB too. If he played in today's rpo embracing NFL he'd be an All-Pro. So Michigan wasn't alone there.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
A couple weeks after that tragedy, Syracuse and McNabb lost 38-17 to an unranked North Carolina State team and I wondered, "why couldn't THIS be the Syracuse team who showed up at the Big House?"
That game was also where the Syracuse students were somehow able to steal the GO BLUE banner our of Crisler so the team had nothing to touch when they entered the field. It was probably an omen.
September 30th, 2021 at 5:51 PM ^
Per Sports Reference, they were ranked #19. That was a great Cuse team (McNabb was awesome obviously).
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/michigan/1998-schedule.html
September 30th, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
Your criteria is pretty narrow, so I don't know, but just for reference, lucky-to-be-ranked #25 2-2 Clemson is a 16.5 pt favorite over 4-0 BC this weekend.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
Yeah, let's call it ranked 3-0 or better vs a team with a losing record with at least two losses or worse and unranked.
And yes, Clemson is favored (and still ranked) because they are recognized to be talented and to have lost close games to good teams, whereas BC isn't ranked because they don't have great talent / haven't been impressive enough to win over the human voters.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:35 PM ^
Clearly people/Vegas think Clemson is better but their ranking is strictly because of poll inertia and BC being unranked is because of pre-season expectations, although BC is effectively 27th in coaches and 29th in AP.
Point is early season match up like this often have major discrepancies between rankings and Vegas. #5 Iowa is only a 3 pt favorite vs Maryland tomorrow.
October 1st, 2021 at 12:08 PM ^
Yes, that's what I said in the OP. I imagine it's not uncommon. The thread was born out of a comment from someone earlier this week that was incredulous about the fact Michigan is an underdog and thinks is some major failure by the coaches or something. And my thesis is that it's probably pretty common, with a couple of close examples just in Michigan's history.
September 30th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^
I meant putting context on it, Michigan hasn’t won at WI since 2001; maybe that has something to do with it.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:20 PM ^
We won't hear that at all during the broadcast.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^
I usually enjoy your comments but that one is a stinging killjoy. (Also, I like the CRISP reference. Good times.)
September 30th, 2021 at 7:58 PM ^
Good old Computer Registration Involving Student Participation
Also known as "screw you, the only statistics class left is at 0800
September 30th, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
Funny how un-computer that was. You stood in lines at Angell Hall to try to grab cards to feed into a computer. Now my kids do all of their scheduling without getting out of bed.
October 1st, 2021 at 11:42 PM ^
Or the only organic chem lab. is at 8am Saturday. Next year I paid somebody to forge me a computer card. It worked.
September 30th, 2021 at 11:48 PM ^
Oh no, this is the big noon Fox game isn't it? F...
September 30th, 2021 at 10:49 PM ^
We’ve played a total of five games there (2005, 2007, 2009, 2017, 2019) since 2001. Only two in the last decade. Do not expect this additional context to be noted in the broadcast.
September 30th, 2021 at 5:55 PM ^
I think it is because Harbaugh is likely to call the game the way it plays into Wisconsin’s hands.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
So true and so depressing
September 30th, 2021 at 6:38 PM ^
I think we should run between the tackles until we establish the running game.
Maybe start passing in the 3rd quarter.
September 30th, 2021 at 9:41 PM ^
What kind of fan are you? Giving away our top secret game plan will endear you to no one.
September 30th, 2021 at 11:03 PM ^
Yes, but only start passing in the 3rd when we are down by at least 17.
October 1st, 2021 at 9:56 AM ^
The 3rd quarter two games later.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^
Why do you think so? The last time we played at Wisconsin in 2019 we came out aggressive. It didn’t work but Jim was aggressive .
September 30th, 2021 at 11:19 PM ^
Wait, I thought Gattis had the keys to the offense???
September 30th, 2021 at 6:12 PM ^
Interesting. I think the line in this one is pretty sound. Michigan should be a slight underdog in this one for a few reasons:
- Wisconsin is built to stymie the element of Michigan's offense that it does best
- Michigan has not demonstrated it has a consistent enough pass game to move the ball against a defense the caliber of Wisconsin's
- Michigan has only forced 2 quarterback turnovers in 4 games.. Wisconsin's achilles heel.
I do think Michigan can have at least a pedestrian running game against Wisconsin. I don't think they will get shut down completely - somewhere in the vicinity of 3.5 ypc on 30ish carries seems plausible. But that paired with every other passing performance Michigan has displayed is not going to equate to a win in Madison. Michigan is going to have to hit some big plays through the air to loosen up Wisconsin's defense.
What Michigan does on their second downs in this game I think will dictate whether or not the have a realistic chance at victory. If they can get into 2nd & 4's or 2nd & 3's with some frequency, that will open the play book for more diverse play calling that can get Wisconsin's defense off balance. Deep play action pass opens up, if Michigan decides to use it, more jet/orbit perimeter runs become worrisome should they choose to use them.
Playing second down conservatively in my opinion is not going to yield very good results for Michigan in this one. They won't hit on every single one, but they won't need too. Hit on 3 or 4 that produce some big plays and that should setup Michigan with enough scoring opportunities to win a low scoring game.
September 30th, 2021 at 9:06 PM ^
You do know ND ran for like 9 yds last week...not 9 yds per carry. They got 0.3 yds per carry. I don't see us getting 3.5yds per carry. I think this game could be the typical ugly Camp Randall "turn off at half" type game.
October 1st, 2021 at 6:57 AM ^
I think they ran for net 3 yards actually.. but as good as Wisconsin's run defense is (and it is very good), they also haven't faced an opponent that runs the ball as well as Michigan. ND, and PSU are both pretty pedestrian rushing teams even outside their matchup with Wisc. Michigan will absolutely not be able to pound the ball, but I think it's possible they can pickup some chunk plays on the ground. Going back to my original point, they will have to be able to pass the ball in order to keep the run game clean in this one. If McNamara can connect on some strikes, and Michigan's play calling can keep Wisconsin off balance, I do think they'll be able to rip off a couple big runs.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:00 AM ^
ND had 3 rushing yards.
October 1st, 2021 at 7:31 AM ^
You turn off low scoring games at the half?
October 1st, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
Penn State ran for 2.8 yards per carry.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:14 PM ^
Michigan vs MSU 2009.
September 30th, 2021 at 10:02 PM ^
Looking up 2009, I'm seeing Michigan (4-0 for the game, ranked #22) was a 4-point favorite at Michigan State (1-3, unranked). So the ranked undefeated team was favored.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:20 PM ^
Wow, almost sounds like are playing the little brother Disrespekt card.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:47 PM ^
MACNAMERAZ MAC-WINZ R WRTH MOAR!!!
September 30th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
The 2008 Wisconsin (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2) game came to mind, but in looking it up Michigan was a 4.5 point home dog in that one. I thought that was closer to a pick 'em, but I was wrong.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
Double post
September 30th, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
Michigan 29
Wisconsin -64
We enjoy their finest Colby Jack and an Old Milwaukee after our victory
Probably tip some cows.
I'm going to also go to Eagle River because I love snowmobile racing
Definitely enjoy a burger
What I'm trying to say is Wisconsin is a great state even if their football team is a bag of butts
September 30th, 2021 at 6:28 PM ^
BTN Michigan vs Wisconsin 2019.
We had Page , Danna , Hutch , and Uche on the DL. We are losing 28-0 at half.
DPJ , NICO , BELL , BLACK at WR.
What's the line for the game Saturday?
September 30th, 2021 at 6:33 PM ^
What's the line for the game Saturday?
September 30th, 2021 at 9:09 PM ^
Unfortunately, they had Shea too.
September 30th, 2021 at 6:32 PM ^
This is disgusting, I didn't realize our record as an underdog was this bad:
September 30th, 2021 at 6:36 PM ^
I didn't realize our record as an underdog was this bad
It's been part East German Judge's signature for the better part of last year.
September 30th, 2021 at 7:00 PM ^
You must not be paying attention then. It's only mentioned all the time UM is on the road or an underdog. With that said, I don't see how anyone can be confident about this game with Jim's record on the road as an underdog. Yes, Mertz is awful but so was MSU's QB outside of playing UM last year. I think Wisconsin matches up well against UM and this game could get ugly.