Harbaugh/Stars and the NFL
Some food for thought about the star process and how it relates to our coach and talent development. I have too much time on my hands, so I dug into the 14 (I believe that is correct) players that were recruited/played under Harbaugh who made it to the NFL. Below is the data I collected based on what I could find...
San Diego:
Josh Johnson - QB - Drafted in Round 5 - 1 star recruit - Offers from St. Mary's and Idaho State
Michael Gasperson - WR - Undrafted - couldn't find a rivals profile - Offers from Arizona and St. Mary's
Eric Bakhtari - DL - Undrafted - couldn't find a rivals profile - Offer from San Mateo
Stanford:
Toby Gerhart - RB - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Ole Miss, Nevada, UCLA, Utah
Eric Lorig - FB/TE - Drafted in Round 7 - 4 star recruit - Offers from Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA, USC
Jim Dray - TE - Drafted in Round 7 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Boston College, Florida State, Iowa, Notre Dame, Tennessee
Ryan Whalen - WR - Drafted in Round 6 - couldn't find a rivals profile/offer list
Richard Sherman - DB - Drafted in Round 5 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Colorado, Mississippi State, Nevada, UCLA
Owen Maercic - RB - Drafted in Round 4 - 2 star recruit - Offer from Portland State
Sione Fua - DT - Drafted in Round 3 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Boston College, BYU, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA
Jonathan Martin - T - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from UCLA, Utah, Utah State
Coby Fleener - TE - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Arizona State, Colorado State, Kansas, Miami (OH), Missouri, Nebraska
David Decastro - G - Drafted in Round 1 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Washington, Washington State, Oregon State
Andrew Luck - QB - Drafted in Round 1 - 4 star recruit - Offers from Northwestern, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Rice, Virginia
Point being made here is that we have a PHENOMENAL coach who can develop talent, regardless of star ratings....
February 5th, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^
Didn't we already know we have a great coach who can develop players?
February 5th, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
Is this today's "Don't worry about stars" post? Or should we expect another one in a couple hours?
February 5th, 2015 at 9:25 AM ^
is the phenomenon being examined by the OP.
Basically, the Enthusiasm Unknown to Mankind® that Harbaugh recruits experience causes their production to rise on average by a full star.
Thus, if we apply the "Harbaugh Stars Equivalency Principle", we see that Michigan did not finish with a 20ish average star ranked class at 3.29 (Rivals); rather, Michigan finished first with a principle-adjusted average star rating of 4.29.
February 5th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^
Stars in aggregate matter, but you can't believe the 247 composite of 1-3 points (on an average basis) out of 100 is really a big deal.
February 5th, 2015 at 8:51 AM ^
I don't see a 5 star on the list.
February 5th, 2015 at 8:53 AM ^
I am much more interested in a guys' offer sheet than I am his star ranking. Not the LACK of SEC offers on these guys too...
February 5th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^
February 5th, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^
I appreciate you taking the time to compile and publish this.
That said, at this point my mind is telling me to get past the recruiting fireworks and focus now on spring practice, the spring game, and the prospects for the fall.
I can't wait to see how things unfold this fall. I can't wait to see how key elements of the team show improvement year over year.
I'm particularly geeked about the offensive line play ... I caught Tim Drevno on the streaming coverage yesterday, and was really struck by the guy's focus.
February 5th, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^
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February 5th, 2015 at 9:00 AM ^
February 5th, 2015 at 9:13 AM ^
February 5th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^
February 5th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^
"I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. These 14 individuals have made a choice to work, a choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line for the next 4 years, to represent you, this University. That kind of commitment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."
February 5th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
Norman Dale!
February 5th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^
I'm trying to remember, did Richrod's class fall apart like hoke's did?
In my mind, we got Harbaugh to coach up the great talent that Hoke brought in. This recruiting class was going to be small and didn't have a lot of expectations.
It's annoying that we didn't get Clark or Weber. And truth be told, I kind of thought we were going to get Marshall. . .
but this staff was asking kids to take a helluva leap of faith to go to a school that the guy started recruiting cold in a little less than a month. Not to mention during that time he was putting together a staff.
February 5th, 2015 at 10:03 AM ^
Fisher, Zettel, Hart, Cooper...and another LB who ended up in SEC country. The class took a hit.
February 5th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^
February 5th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
I don't think this class was a wash as much as some people claim.
Remember that we still had a top-20 class according to average rating and the class is headlined by guys like Zach Gentry, Brian Cole, Tyree Kinnel, and Grant Newsome, who were composite 4-star players with a number of suitors.
While there are no immediate game-changers among the class (and I'm skeptical that Weber fits in that category), it certainly won't hurt us at all. In fact, it could pay huge dividends with high upside guys like Wheatley, Johnson, Jones, Washington, etc. There are positions of need for the future (like at linebacker), but Harbaugh has set himself up nicely assuming that he recruits at a high level given more than a winter break to do so.
February 5th, 2015 at 10:06 AM ^
Cole and both QBs have decent shots at being game-changers, IMO.
February 5th, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^
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February 5th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^
I'm definitely in the camp that thinks next year will be a top 5/ top 10 class, but I'll play devil's advocate and say we've never really seen Harbaugh recruit at an elite level. I know, I know, he had a lot of restrictions at Stanford and he recruited the guys that would fit his system.
It got me wondering how many 247 composite top 100 players has Harbaugh ever had on his teams? 2, just Luck and Skov. At Michigan he inherits 1 in this recruiting class in Brian Cole, and 12 others on the roster already.
Stars don't mean everything, but they definitely mean something. Depending on how fast these players pick up the systems and philosophies the coaches are teaching we could see big things happen quick.
February 5th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^
Harbaugh even admitted that the only way to fill this class was to flip kids and that's not a strategy he prefers("that's kind of the way the pickle squirted this year"). I'm sure he'll have better success starting in 2016. In the meantime, can't wait to see how he develops all the 4&5 star players Hoke left him.
February 5th, 2015 at 9:25 PM ^