Harbaugh/Stars and the NFL

Submitted by jonesie022 on

Some food for thought about the star process and how it relates to our coach and talent development. I have too much time on my hands, so I dug into the 14 (I believe that is correct) players that were recruited/played under Harbaugh who made it to the NFL. Below is the data I collected based on what I could find...

San Diego:
Josh Johnson - QB - Drafted in Round 5 - 1 star recruit - Offers from St. Mary's and Idaho State

Michael Gasperson - WR - Undrafted - couldn't find a rivals profile - Offers from Arizona and St. Mary's

Eric Bakhtari - DL - Undrafted - couldn't find a rivals profile - Offer from San Mateo

Stanford:
Toby Gerhart - RB - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Arizona, Duke, Kansas, Ole Miss, Nevada, UCLA, Utah

Eric Lorig - FB/TE - Drafted in Round 7 - 4 star recruit - Offers from Cal, Notre Dame, UCLA, USC

Jim Dray - TE - Drafted in Round 7 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Boston College, Florida State, Iowa, Notre Dame, Tennessee

Ryan Whalen - WR - Drafted in Round 6 - couldn't find a rivals profile/offer list

Richard Sherman - DB - Drafted in Round 5 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Colorado, Mississippi State, Nevada, UCLA

Owen Maercic - RB - Drafted in Round 4 - 2 star recruit - Offer from Portland State

Sione Fua - DT - Drafted in Round 3 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Boston College, BYU, Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, UCLA

Jonathan Martin - T - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from UCLA, Utah, Utah State

Coby Fleener - TE - Drafted in Round 2 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Arizona State, Colorado State, Kansas, Miami (OH), Missouri, Nebraska

David Decastro - G - Drafted in Round 1 - 3 star recruit - Offers from Washington, Washington State, Oregon State

Andrew Luck - QB - Drafted in Round 1 - 4 star recruit - Offers from Northwestern, Purdue, Oklahoma State, Rice, Virginia

Point being made here is that we have a PHENOMENAL coach who can develop talent, regardless of star ratings....

Muttley

February 5th, 2015 at 9:25 AM ^

is the phenomenon being examined by the OP.

Basically, the Enthusiasm Unknown to Mankind® that Harbaugh recruits experience causes their production to rise on average by a full star.

Thus, if we apply the "Harbaugh Stars Equivalency Principle", we see that Michigan did not finish with a 20ish average star ranked class at 3.29 (Rivals); rather, Michigan finished first with a principle-adjusted average star rating of 4.29.

jblaze

February 5th, 2015 at 9:10 AM ^

What's interesting is that 1-3 point difference for average recruit ranking (out of 100) means a top 10 class vs a top 25 class.

Stars in aggregate matter, but you can't believe the 247 composite of 1-3 points (on an average basis) out of 100 is really a big deal.

A State Fan

February 5th, 2015 at 8:58 AM ^

I'd guess the lack of SEC offers is more due to geographic reasons than talent ones. That league doesn't need to leave it's region to take flyers on some projects. Most of the guys listed had tiny offer lists, but a couple of them had UCLA/Oregon/ND, which I would say are good offers for a guy on the west coast to get.

DonAZ

February 5th, 2015 at 8:59 AM ^

I appreciate you taking the time to compile and publish this.

That said, at this point my mind is telling me to get past the recruiting fireworks and focus now on spring practice, the spring game, and the prospects for the fall.

I can't wait to see how things unfold this fall.  I can't wait to see how key elements of the team show improvement year over year.

I'm particularly geeked about the offensive line play ... I caught Tim Drevno on the streaming coverage yesterday, and was really struck by the guy's focus.

Indonacious

February 5th, 2015 at 9:13 AM ^

The counterpoint would be that imagine what harbaugh could do with 4/5* players...some of the later rounders may have gone earlier. Talent can be developed but some talent is innate - some people are just faster, bigger, stronger. That being said, our recruiting class was fine, I'm not sounding any alarms like many people. Next year will be great!

WilliSC48

February 5th, 2015 at 9:21 AM ^

This class was screwed when Hoke lost to Minnesota. Harbaugh had less than a month to start relationships with all these recruits. It's not like he was coaching college ball where he already had relationships with recruits. This recruiting class was always going to be a wash. Let's see what he can do with this year's team and with the 2016 recruiting class. I don't think we're going to be worrying about average stars in the future.

BlueKoj

February 5th, 2015 at 9:32 AM ^

"I would hope you would support who we are. Not, who we are not. These 14 individuals have made a choice to work, a choice to sacrifice, to put themselves on the line for the next 4 years, to represent you, this University. That kind of commitment and effort deserves and demands your respect. This is your team."

gustave ferbert

February 5th, 2015 at 9:33 AM ^

I'm trying to remember, did Richrod's class fall apart like hoke's did?  

 

In my mind, we got Harbaugh to coach up the great talent that Hoke brought in.  This recruiting class was going to be small and didn't have a lot of expectations. 

 

It's annoying that we didn't get Clark or Weber.  And truth be told, I kind of thought we were going to get Marshall. . .

but this staff was asking kids to take a helluva leap of faith to go to a school that the guy started recruiting cold in a little less than a month.  Not to mention during that time he was putting together a staff. 

Laser Wolf

February 5th, 2015 at 9:24 AM ^

While I totally agree that Harbaugh and staff do a phenomenal job developing talent, you're also conveniently omitting the four-stars that went undrafted. That happens all the time, but you can't just highlight the positives.

EastCoast Esq.

February 5th, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^

I don't think this class was a wash as much as some people claim.

Remember that we still had a top-20 class according to average rating and the class is headlined by guys like Zach Gentry, Brian Cole, Tyree Kinnel, and Grant Newsome, who were composite 4-star players with a number of suitors.

While there are no immediate game-changers among the class (and I'm skeptical that Weber fits in that category), it certainly won't hurt us at all. In fact, it could pay huge dividends with high upside guys like Wheatley, Johnson, Jones, Washington, etc. There are positions of need for the future (like at linebacker), but Harbaugh has set himself up nicely assuming that he recruits at a high level given more than a winter break to do so.

Sauce Castillo

February 5th, 2015 at 9:57 AM ^

I'm definitely in the camp that thinks next year will be a top 5/ top 10 class, but I'll play devil's advocate and say we've never really seen Harbaugh recruit at an elite level.  I know, I know, he had a lot of restrictions at Stanford and he recruited the guys that would fit his system.  

It got me wondering how many 247 composite top 100 players has Harbaugh ever had on his teams? 2, just Luck and Skov.  At Michigan he inherits 1 in this recruiting class in Brian Cole, and 12 others on the roster already.  

Stars don't mean everything, but they definitely mean something.  Depending on how fast these players pick up the systems and philosophies the coaches are teaching we could see big things happen quick.

Baughlieve

February 5th, 2015 at 10:02 AM ^

Harbaugh even admitted that the only way to fill this class was to flip kids and that's not a strategy he prefers("that's kind of the way the pickle squirted this year"). I'm sure he'll have better success starting in 2016. In the meantime, can't wait to see how he develops all the 4&5 star players Hoke left him.