Harbaugh's value to the University of Michigan would be $1 billion

Submitted by MGoVictory on

If this is true, the amount of money apparently offered to Harbaugh to coach at Michigan makes perfect sense. I think most of us realized that anyway. 

UM regents were informed that Harbaugh's project value to the U over the term of the contract would be $1B. #Harbaugh #MerryChristmas

— dennis fithian (@dennisfithian) December 25, 2014
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Jason80

December 25th, 2014 at 12:20 PM ^

Is the other option shuttering the program? I have a feeling that most other coaches will generate predictions in the hundreds of millions or reaching a billion also. The number without the analysis makes a great headline but is otherwise not worth much.

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UMGoRoss

December 25th, 2014 at 12:49 PM ^

But the more I think about it, the more plausible it seems. If you assume it's an 8 year contract, that's $125m a year.
Maybe 1/10 of that would be true football related revenue (tickets, apparel, concessions), but the overwhelming majority would be in increased donations. I'm not sure how correlated giving is to football success, but I'm sure it's significant.

Now, if your baseline is a team that's 5-7 in perpetuity, vs a JH coached team that you are hoping is competing for Big Ten Championships, it's not out of the question. The better analysis would be JH vs your next best option (Miles, Mullen) which I would assume wouldn't be a $1B difference.

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Yeoman

December 25th, 2014 at 4:21 PM ^

"5-7 in perpetuity"?

Michigan has had 18 head football coaches and only one of those 18 had a Michigan-career winning percentage that low, and he only coached three years, not "in perpetuity". Bump Elliott's the only coach of the ten that stayed four years or more to have a percentage < .600.

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MayOhioEatTurds

December 25th, 2014 at 6:27 PM ^

Sir, you don't have to go back to Bump Elliott to find an example of a coach with a 5-7 or worse average at Michigan. 

You have carefully selected only those coaches who stayed four or more years, but that makes little sense--because those who coach poorly are likely to get the boot far sooner than those who coach successfully.  You thereby conceal the worst coaching records. 

Consider RR, who coached at Michigan only a few years ago--and won only 15 of 38 games (includes the bowl game).  That's a 39% winning average. 

There's plenty of reason to fear regression to a 5-7 average record.  It's not just RR; that was the football team's record this very season.  Hence, baseline.

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TheNoid

December 25th, 2014 at 12:29 PM ^

Yes, I'm sure the regents were "informed" of this by Harbaugh's agent... Based on 9383727384937/6 assumptions playing out and compounding over nearly a decade, this mathematical formula was really quite easy. Probably a conservative estimate and really will be more like infinity by year 5. /s

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BlowGoo

December 25th, 2014 at 12:48 PM ^

Mr. Harbaugh, my offer of $10 in addition to any monies provided by the U of M if you accept the HC position has just gone up to $14.99 in light of this recent information. I know you and your agent are reviewing your options and am confident you will see that the fit for you back here in Michigan is uniquely superior. Therefore if you choose to commit to UM early and before the expiration of your contract to the 49ers, well, dammit, then I should commit to you: in that event, I will throw in a free pizza at Cottage Inn (with purchase of another pizza of equal or greater value). Thank you.

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ThadMattasagoblin

December 25th, 2014 at 12:51 PM ^

Even if it's only 10 percent of that estimate, that puts you at 100 million or double his salary. That would make sense with what Saban has done for Alabama although they're not really the academic powerhouse that we are. Harbaugh could probably take us to 50K students and closer to Stanford, Northwestern levels if he wins a national championship or 2.

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ST3

December 25th, 2014 at 6:26 PM ^

The dreaded "converted triple." That's where they take a double dorm room and swap out one of the beds for a bunk bed and squeeze in a desk to the already limited floor space. Yeah, I'm still sore about my freshman year dorm room. My Festivus airing of grievances begins and ends with the converted triple.

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