Golden Gophers Proving OOC Schedule is Irrelevant
Minny likely to be ranked Top 7 this week. If they win out, they will be in CFB Playoff. Period. The Gophers have a ridiculously weak Out of Conference schedule. Begs the question: why would any AD look at the OOC schedule as anything more than a tune-up to conference play?
(Penn St and WIS have figured this out too)
November 11th, 2019 at 12:38 PM ^
I hate to break it to you but neither Auburn nor Oregon is likely to make the playoff. In fact, if ORE hadn't played AUB in a game away from home, then they likely would be undefeated and a near lock for the CFB playoff simply by runniing the table in the PAC12.
How about Clemson? And you are seriously going to use Alabama as an example? Please tell me who they've played in an OOC home and home series on a year-in and year-out basis? Nobody! Why in the world would you use teams like LSU and ORE to prove your point when programs like Clemson, Bama and OSU are winning the prize?
I repeat: we already play a BigTen schedule that includes WIS, Penn State and OSU. Among our peer group, both WIS and Penn State have come far closer to reaching the playoff than UM has and they routinely schedule OOC patsies. Why don't you compare their OOC schedules with ours and get back to me....As I said in the OP, the only thing Minny has to do is to run the table in the BigTen and they are a lock for the playoff. If that's the case (and it is), then you're just ignorant to elect a tougher path.
November 11th, 2019 at 12:51 PM ^
Why would I compare Michigan's schedule to a group of teams who haven't made the playoff when discussing what it takes to make the playoff? OSU got in over a penn state team who beat them because they beat Oklahoma out of conference already in the playoffs so that sort of invalidates your argument right there. As does the fact that Bama and OSU both have strong out of conference schedules both historically and coming up and this year happened to be an outlier. Or the fact that Minnesota's shit schedule leaves them with no margin for error. Going undefeated is really fucking hard. Bama has only done it a couple times under Saban, OSU lost to Iowa and Purdue the last two years, etc. Giving yourself the chance to make up for a loss with a good OOC game actually increases your chances of getting into the playoffs. Oregon wouldn't be ranked any differently now than they would have been playing a patsy in week 1 considering they are still ranked ahead of undefeated Minnesota with that 1 loss and if they win out they will make the playoff. If anything the fact that 1 loss Oregon is ranked ahead of undefeated Minnesota is clear proof your entire theory is bunk. You made a bad point to try to justify a reason Michigan can't get into the playoff, it happens, just move on.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
No offense but that is just not correct. Penn State has Auburn, WVU, and Va Tech coming up.
OSU has Oregon, Texas, Notre Dame, and Georgia coming up.
Alabama has USC, Miami, and Texas.
Georgia has Oregon, Oklahoma, and Clemson on their future schedule.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:35 AM ^
I don't agree with that statement. Beginning next year, ohio state has:
- 2020 @ Oregon
- 2021 vs Oregon
- 2022 vs notre dame
- 2023 @ notre dame
- 2024 @ Washington
- 2025 vs Washington and @ Texas
- 2026 vs Texas and vs BC
- 2027 @ BC
- 2028 @ Georgia
- 2029 vs Georgia
penn state has similar, but slightly lower on the competitive ladder with home-homes with WVU, VT, and Auburn.
Michigan's OOC opponents aren't really any tougher (we have home-homes scheduled with Washington, Texas, Oklahoma, and notre dame).
November 11th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
Do you really think this is what is keeping Michigan out of the CFP/National Championship picture? We've lost to PSU (have to play every year in B10E) and Wisconsin (B10 rotating schedule - mostly out of our hands and they fall off the schedule starting next year).
There have been several OOC blue blood "home and home" games recently announced - Including Georgia vs Ohio State.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:53 PM ^
LSU played Texas, Georgia played ND, Clemson played A &M...difference between us and them is that they usually take care of business in conference as well.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^
What happened to watching football for the love of the sport? I love watching Michigan play the best teams. There is more tension, more excitement, and a higher level of play. As a fan, I prefer that type of game.
The Minnesota vs PSU game was interesting to watch as a fan. So was LSU vs Alabama. On the other hand, OSU vs Maryland was unwatchable after the first quarter. Great teams versus tomato cans and Baby Seal University is not entertaining -- unless you are only about wins.
Teams will increasingly be encouraged to schedule tougher OOC opponents because it will become more important. The future of college football depends on it.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:04 AM ^
I'm at the point where I see the tomato can games as almost pre season. Impossible to get excited to play MTSU, but with the margin of error so small in cfb, you have to take the bama and Clemson paths of scheduling if you ever want to consistently win championships
November 11th, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
This is why I am 110% in favor of even a slightly expanded playoff where conference champions (at least P5) are guaranteed a slot and you have 1 at large slot. Then you'll have more P5 teams willing to play big OOC games because there's still a path to the playoff through your conference, but if you don't you better have a hell of a resume to compete for the 1 at large slot (i.e. competition for scheduling the best OOC schedule you can). And it won't diminish the importance of conference games (which still make up the bulk of the schedule) a single bit.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
This is false in every way.
1) Both of those teams usually schedule some tough OOC games. Clemson usually plays two P5 teams - South Carolina and one other which has been Texas A&M lately. Bama usually plays a tough neutral site game. And the one year, they don't - this year - it's probably going to cost them a spot in the playoff.
2) Bama and Clemson win championships because they are consistently extremely talented, crush most opponents, win their conferences and leave no doubt that they're top 4 teams. Do that, and your ooc scheduling doesn't matter - could be hard or easy - those teams make it clear when they're top 4 teams.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
Some people would rather be given 1st place than have earned 3rd place. Just the way it is.
Alabama plays one big name most years, so does OSU. Hardly Alabama's fault Louisville fell of the map, they were good when Alabama scheduled them. 2019 is an aberration for Ohio State, they usually play someone decent in the pre-season too (look at their future/past schedules).
I'm fine with Michigan's OOC schedule. Win the games.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:49 AM ^
THIS! And I know that people who actually go to the games are pretty low on the priority list of concerns, but I put out a decent amount of money for season tickets. Seeing three Middle Tennessee games every year, on top of all the other issues, will really change my cost/benefit analysis.
November 11th, 2019 at 12:35 PM ^
Well, Clemson is operating on a competitive diet of tomato soup cans. They played Texas A&M as their big OOC matchup, and nobody inside the conference poses a threat to their dominance, which I suppose is fun to experience weekly but not watch. Their most competitive game this season was against UNC on the road, and Mack Brown went for the win instead of OT, at the time.
So, their final hurdle is USC before they dismantle whomever shows up in Charlotte the first week of December, then its on to the playoffs.
I guess we are beyond the time of a preseason playoff matchup, though Alabama seems willing to play most anyone in Atlanta in their season opener, knowing that having put a permanent callous on their program, one loss will never endanger a playoff selection.
And that truly is the difference between the contenders and the pretenders in college football. I would think that Clemson would have attained that status, although A&M is not really a signifcant player in the SEC and while So. Carolina surprised Georgia, beating your rival on the final Saturday of the season doesn't warrant Ohio State-Michigan season buildup. But the Buckeyes are now scheduling that callous factor to their program as they head toward an unbeaten year.
The way the playoff pickers set it up now with their weekly rankings is to ensure that the calloused contenders don't get eliminated by a wishful pretender, Penn State being the perfect example, listed at 4 but then executed on the road by Minnesota. So they are done regardless of whatever happens next. Minnesota will never get there, and so the same old, same old contenders are left.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:03 AM ^
Rule of thumb
College football: schedule nobody and go undefeated. Resume doesn't matter. Especially true for Michigan who has to play OSU every year
College basketball: schedule everybody you can like MSU does. Izzo loses those beginning of year events every single year and it counts for nothing. Some losses to good teams literally count more for you than wins against bad ones. A 13 loss MSU team is always taken more seriously than even an undefeated Gonzaga
November 11th, 2019 at 10:09 AM ^
They will still lose at least 2 games. Their QB is playing really well right now, but they didn't look great to me while beating Penn St. They will probably lose to both Iowa and Wisky. The thing I'm looking forward to is us winning out, and the B1G getting locked out of the playoff again. There will be 2 SEC teams, Clemson, and OU again.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:15 AM ^
Hard to see a one or zero loss big ten champ getting left out. Unless OSU gets stomped by someone or loses to Rutgers, they'll have a better resume than bama. Though would be interesting to see what would happen if Georgia wins out and beats lsu. I could see two sec teams getting in with that
November 11th, 2019 at 10:11 AM ^
You are correct.
That fact definitely won't bother me when we open on the road next season against a team that is currently ranked 17th in SP+, has a Top 15 recruiting class and ended its last 3 seasons in the Peach, Fiesta and Rose Bowls.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
I know, it's awful, an interesting game against a good team in a cool stadium. What a terrible burden to have to bear. How will we ever survive?
November 11th, 2019 at 10:46 AM ^
Do you want Michigan to get to the College Football Playoff or not? We haven't made it to the final game in over 20 years; personally, I would like to go and would like to do everything reasonable to increase our chances.
If it helps, I am fine with scheduling Washington, UCLA, etc to home & home -- just not as the first game of the season where teams are often working out the kinks, breaking in new coordinators and/or QBs etc.
But I also agree, as a general rule, that if you want to make the playoffs, tough scheduling for a name brand team in the out-of-conference is not the way to go and as the OP said, irrelevant. To deny that is to deny reality.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
Yeah, I do want to make the playoffs. The way to do it is to finally beat OSU, thats the roadblock and acting like it isn't is foolhardy. You seriously want to tell me a close loss against a good Washington team would keep M out of the playoff picture if they run the table after that? Please.. Interesting non-conference games have nothing to do with that AND all these teams everyone keeps citing schedule big-time match-ups as well. If you're trying to build a program a la Kansas St. in the 90's and Minnesota now, sure, schedule body-bags, Michigan should be at a point where it doesn't act like a chicken in scheduling games.
November 11th, 2019 at 12:14 PM ^
"If they run the table..."
OSU, who has had some great teams recently (and has obviously beaten Michigan every year since 2012), hasn't run the table in the B1G since 2014. It is extremely hard. If that's your plan for long-term success, you're making your path very narrow. And for what?
It's not about being "chicken," it's about being smart. Is Alabama chicken? How about Clemson? Alabama is going to finally start doing home & homes, but they only have 8 conference games, plus they know the polls/committee gives SEC teams every benefit of the doubt.
And again --I'm not against scheduling Washington, UCLA, etc. But there is zero reason to have them as the first game of the season, yet we continually do that nonsense. It's not smart.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:14 AM ^
Alabama figured this out years ago. The last true non-conference road game that they have had against a traditional power was in 2011. They will schedule one and only one potential tough non-conference opponent and it will be at a neutral site. The other three will be against cupcakes which they will schedule those and bye weeks just prior to their two toughest seasonal games.
They have never been punished for it so why change it?
November 11th, 2019 at 10:26 AM ^
That may change this year. I think Alabama is out unless the Big 12 champion and Pac-12 champion have more than one loss.
The SEC champ is getting in. The Big Ten champ is getting in. Clemson is most likely in if they win out. I think the 4th spot is most likely going to go to the better of the Big 12 or Pac-12 champion.
And what did Alabama figure out years ago? They were still playing neutral site games against the likes of Wisconsin, USC, FSU, and Michigan. Those are some pretty good traditional teams to schedule. And even Alabama has scheduled home-away series in the future with Texas, Wisconsin, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma.
The main difference is that the SEC has 4 non-conference games to work with. Ever since the Big Ten moved to 9 conference games and created the Big Ten East division, the schedule strength for Michigan has increased.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:16 AM ^
Out of conference scheduling is not particularly relevant if you play in B1G or SEC.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:18 AM ^
The SEC has been doing this for years! Most of their school actually schedule cupcakes, in the middle of conference play, the week before their big games.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:20 AM ^
I mean not really, it left them with literally zero margin for error, if Minnesota loses a single game they are absolutely eliminated from the playoffs. The point of scheduling well is it gives you a buffer to take a loss to a good team and still be able to make up for it.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
The Gophers OOC schedule isn't as bad as it looks on the surface. Georgia Southern is 5-4 with a win over ranked App State and one of their losses to LSU. South Dakota State is 7-3 and one of the top teams in the FCS. Fresno State was a legit top 25 team last year, although they've fallen off a bit this year at 4-5, that game was in Fresno. It's at least on par with your average SEC OOC schedule.
Their collection of Big 10 opponents so far have contributed more to their crappy strength of schedule. Beyond PSU, they've played Purdue, Nebraska, Illinois, Buttgers, and Maryland.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:54 AM ^
And 5 consecutive backup quarterbacks before the Penn State game. Ouch.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
Illinois is not crappy. They are for real. If you don’t believe me, just ask Mork D’antonio.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:22 AM ^
I’ve been saying this for years. If you’re a P5 school never schedule anyone good out of conference. I know it’s better for, like the actual game and fans and stuff, but the tankers will never leave an undefeated P5 school out no matter what.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:23 AM ^
Because it's boring, smacks of being a chicken and does reflect poorly if one has to pick between teams with one loss. Kansas St. did this to bring the program to respectability back in the 90's, it's an acknowledged technique, but I have yet to see KSU in the Nat'l championship game.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:24 AM ^
Our OOC schedules should look something like this every year. We play enough quality teams within our division and crossover's with the West.
Colo St, E. Mich, Oregon St
Hawaii, W. Mich, Kansas
San Diego St, ECU, Vanderbilt
Rice, C. Mich, BYU
UConn, No. Ill, Syracuse
November 11th, 2019 at 12:41 PM ^
That's just it - ugly win beats quality loss. Until that changes, bring on the OOC fluff.
I have no problem with that as a season ticket holder.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:29 AM ^
Especially in the Big Ten East, the schedule is difficult enough. Schedule tomato cans in the OOC. This allows you to work on scheme and refine your play. In this era, it's obvious.
That said, if Michigan wants to play a traditional game like ND in the OOC sometimes, that's fine. BUT, there is no reason at all to schedule a game like Washington on the road. If we win, it does nothing for us, and if we lose, we lose some spots in the ranking for no good reason.
Until we're competitive with OSU, it's moot anyway.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:31 AM ^
Not to ruin the narrative, but Minnesota’s OOC schedule was WILD. They scheduled:
-South Dakota State, one of the premier FCS programs and was very capable of wrecking Minnesota’s season in Game 1.
-Fresno State, flying across the country to take on what was considered one of the better non-P5 teams coming into the season.
-Georgia Southern, a triple-option team that you should apply service academy rules to (never schedule them)
While that schedule doesn’t hold any traditional name value, it was entertaining as hell. Each week was like watching the Gophers play a new round of Russian Roulette.
If you want to argue OOC schedules should be boring, you can’t use Minnesota as your example.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:37 AM ^
I was going to post this as well. Minnesota's non-conference was tougher than it looks on paper, and their performance in those games are actually dragging them down in public perception.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:43 AM ^
Yeah, like I mentioned above, it's their Big 10 opponents that are dragging them down more. Drawing Maryland and Buttgers out of the East will do that.
November 11th, 2019 at 1:48 PM ^
well those three teams are pretty bad, there are what 120 teams in div 1, those teams are 77, 96, 103, with Maryland at 83, Rutgers does hurt at 138. These are Sagarin ratings, and while they shouldn't be taken as absolute fact, we can see why Minn has a poor SOS.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:32 AM ^
There are arguments to be made on both sides. A weak OOC schedule means you have to win your conference and possibly go undefeated as well, especially if you are in the ACC and Pac-12 where the conference strength is much lower.
OSU does not make the playoff in 2016 if they do not beat Oklahoma in the non-conference. OSU got left out last year despite having beaten TCU and Oregon St in their non-conference so it didn't pay off for them last year.
And exactly what did PSU and Wisconsin figure out? Both teams have never made the CFB playoff despite PSU winning the conference in 2016. PSU got left out because OSU beat Oklahoma in the non-conference that year.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:40 AM ^
2016 - the discussion wasn't really PSU or OSU. Ohio State deserved to make the playoff. They were the #3 seed and deservedly so.
The real discussion was PSU or Washington, w/ a few folk also talking up U-M as a part of that discussion.
Both PSU and Washington were 9-1 in conference games, and a conference Champ. PSU had a OOC road loss to a Pittsburgh team that was solid that year. Washington had OOC wins over Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State.
Washington got in. If PSU scheduled and beat Buffalo instead of Pittsburgh - they might have gotten in (though nobody really knows, that's some alternate universe, of course).
November 11th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
in 2016 a 12-1 PSU with their only loss being to 10-2 Michigan and having a win over 11-1 OSU would have 100% gotten in the CFP.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:55 AM ^
But the point remains that OSU does not make the playoff that year or even in the discussion without that non-conference win over Oklahoma. You're focusing on Washington, but OSU also took a spot that could have been PSU's and did it without winning their conference.
And Clemson lost to that same Pittsburgh team that year and got in (Clemson won at Auburn that year in non-conference). I don't think that was the only reason PSU got left out. The 39-point loss to Michigan was a factor as well. OSU also benefited from having Wisconsin and Nebraska in crossover games too.
If PSU were to replace Pittsburgh with Buffalo AND OSU were to have taken Oklahoma off their schedule that year (I think this is the scenario to consider if everyone waters down their non-conference), PSU may have still been ranked behind Washington because of the 39-point loss to Michigan. And a now one-loss Oklahoma team would have been in the discussion for PSU's spot. Part of the reason PSU got juice that year was because of a win over an OSU team that beat Oklahoma.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
PSU got hamblasted at UM. If they would've scored some meaningless TDs to lose by 10 points, they would've had a better argument. But UW also beat 4 ranked teams that year, PSU beat 2. UW also won two of those games on the road.
OSU shouldn't have made it in over UW or PSU and their performance against Clemson proved it.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:04 AM ^
I'm confused. Why should OSU get credit for beating a 2-10 Oregon State team? And TCU lost 5 of their next 7 games after losing to OSU.
What did OSU in last year was getting destroyed by a 7 loss Purdue team. And that wasn't a particular time where things were starting to improve for the Boilers because they were playing BAD football before and after that OSU game.
November 11th, 2019 at 11:11 AM ^
The point was that OSU tried to schedule a challenging non-conference that year. Going into that year, it looked like scheduling TCU, Oregon St, and Tulane was a decent non-conference. TCU was preseason #16 that year, and they played them in a neutral site down the street from TCU's campus.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:33 AM ^
It is completely ignorant to schedule difficult teams in the nonconference schedule.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:42 AM ^
You are absolutely wrong. Minny will NOT make the playoffs, even if they win out.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Yes they would. If Minny goes 13-0 they are probably the college football story of the year and would get slotted at #4 in the playoff.
November 11th, 2019 at 10:47 AM ^
Umm, yes they would, that is not even a question up for debate. On what planet does an undefeated Minnesota with wins over 4 ranked teams if they are able to make it through Wisky, Iowa and OSU not get in?
November 11th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
That is ridiculous -- they would be undefeated and have beaten Penn State, Ohio State, Iowa and Wisconsin. That's some of the biggest names in the game, and likely two teams rated in Top 5 (potentially a #1 or #2 team) and another rated in the Top 12.
They'd be a #3 seed with that resume -- only LSU and Clemson (if the latter stays undefeated) would be ahead of them.