Game theory: will the thinking on this ever change?
I know one team in the Super Bowl conceded the TD, and ended up not scoring. I haven't seen too many other teams do it. Will it become a more common practice in the future?
December 6th, 2015 at 12:42 AM ^
Belichick seems to be one of the exceedingly few coaches that takes these calculated risks.
I remember a game early in Brady's career where Belichick intentionally took a safety to get better field position. It was at Denver and the Patriots went on to beat the Broncos.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 4:57 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 8:12 AM ^
4th and 3, Brady completed a pass to Kevin Faulk I believe for a 2 yard gain, just short of a first down. Belichick said after they couldn't stop Peyton so they played to win with their offense.
December 6th, 2015 at 9:49 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:22 PM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:27 PM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 1:49 PM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 8:15 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 8:38 AM ^
That decision didn't strike me as being bad, despite the fact that it was clearly unconventional. Peyton Manning was shredding their defense that game and Belicheck knew they wouldn't be able to to stop the Colts if Manning got the ball back. It's easy to criticize the decision because it didn't work, but if he honestly believed that the best/only way to stop Manning was to not give him the ball, the decision is defensible.
December 6th, 2015 at 11:02 AM ^
It's the statistically more positive choice. On average you'll score more by going for it in that situation.
That someone would get fired for doing the statistically smart but unconventional thing is very much an issue of risk aversion in coaches.
December 6th, 2015 at 11:17 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
That was actually the right call given the rest of the game.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 12:43 AM ^
I think Ferentz weighed the odds of Beathard leading a scoring drive and his defense toughing one out and chose defense. When you have Tom Brady or a better offense, that changes the odds, but if you're asking if coaches will ever stop sucking at game theory the answer is no, for now, and depending on the coach.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:47 AM ^
Beathard had demonstrated an ability to beat MSU vertically and their D had been out there for 9 minutes. It was the wrong choice.
December 6th, 2015 at 11:32 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:55 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 8:47 AM ^
They got into field goal rang how many times during the game? If it's really "not that hard" then you do it every time.
December 6th, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^
The opposing defense will play very differently in the closing two minutes of a close game, ceding yards to avoid giving up a big play.
December 6th, 2015 at 9:56 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
Good point. I actually thought Kirk should've taken a TO earlier in the drive when State's running game was really starting to roll. It would've given them a chance to rest, re-group and figure out how to stop them. It would've been more of a basektball style timeout that coaches use to stop big runs and try to seize momentum. (I think Michigan should;ve done this during that monster 7 minute drive Ohio State had in the 3rd quarter when they really put the game away). Maybe they could've figured something out to stop the run or dial up a blitz, something that would force State into a pass on the ensuing play. Then, if they still cant be stopped, then let them score.
I watched this game with a handful of Hawkeyes and thought it was kind of a toss-up and was hoping for a stop, because the defense was so tough the whole game. but you have to give your offense a chance. I would always err on the side of having the ball last.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:44 AM ^
Had them stopped on third down they just couldn't tackle. If they didn't do their best Joe Bolden impression on that play it would have been 4th and goal at the one for the win. To me, Beatherd isn't a good enough QB to have that much trust in. They just got burned because they couldn't do one simple thing, tackle. Credit to Scott though, it was a hard run.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
Still, MSU had 4 shots to essentially make a 2-point conversion once they got their 1st down at the 2 yard line with about a minute left. At that point, the odds against you getting a stop are way against you.
Better to let them score and play the shorter odds of getting into field goal range.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:44 AM ^
Game theory: Kirk Ferentz is a boob.
December 6th, 2015 at 2:14 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 6:09 AM ^
"calling a game." His approach is so vanilla. 4th and 1, rarely will you see him go for it. I'm sure he was privately thankful that the one fourth down had a penalty so that he just had to kick a field goal.
Waiting till the second half to try and exploit the secondary cost them.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:45 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 12:49 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:57 AM ^
made a 57 yarder earlier this year. But Iowa suddenly could not hold on to the ball and as a result they chased the ball on the ground for 10 of their 22 seconds left. Its an MSU thing when the game is in the balance it just tips their way. Why?
I have no idea....
December 6th, 2015 at 1:17 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 2:28 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 1:59 AM ^
and winning close games is every bit as habit forming. When Bo was coach and we were w/in 10 at half I knew we'd almost always win. Of course it was rare for us to be down by that much. However, the game was much different then, but these two teams would have played right into our hands. They were the same types we defended then. No one in fb made better half time adjustments than M, under Bo. And no one I've seen recently wins more games on their final drives, regardless of the competition than the Spartans. When credit is deserved, it should be given. Although they ran it perfectly during that drive, even the pass that was overruled was spot on. The one he dropped in between two defenders was absolutely perfect and brought back memories of watching Lienhart throw into cereal box openings the entire RB 2004. Great drive.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:46 AM ^
Surely the chances of getting in FG range in two minutes significantly exceed the chances of stopping a team from getting 2 years in four plays. But hey, Kirk punted on fourth and an inch from midfield so . . .
IIRC (and I was ~8 at the time) but wasn't it the Packers who let the Broncos score in SB XXXII?
December 6th, 2015 at 9:36 AM ^
you should think in terms of stopping MSU in three plays, because if MSU scores on first down against a full-effort Iowa defense, it's no different than if MSU scores on first down against an Iowa defense that's letting MSU walk in on first down.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:50 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:51 AM ^
Thank God IU scored on us...that's all I gotta say.
December 6th, 2015 at 12:58 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 12:52 AM ^
Iowa would have had nearly two minutes to get into field goal range, and Sparty would be in prevent. It's not hard to imagine Iowa getting a couple 20 yard passes down the field to get in range. I'm guessing the win %
calculators will show that Iowa made a huge gaffe.
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December 6th, 2015 at 1:10 AM ^
Seems the Sparties live off of other teams gaffes
December 6th, 2015 at 1:34 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 1:40 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 2:16 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 2:25 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 2:29 AM ^
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December 6th, 2015 at 8:39 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 1:11 AM ^
Ferentz is a fucking idiot. You're calling the timeouts banking on stopping them from getting the first down at the 3 yard line. Once they make that, you have to let them score. The odds of a 4 play defensive stand from that close are very, very, slim. The odds of getting within fg range with 2 minutes with college timing rules are much higher, even with a shit QB. Their kicker has made some from 55+ yards, so you only need get to about the 40 yard line. Assuming you start from your 20, that's only 40 yards to cover, while the defense is going to be cautious to avoid giving up a touchdown.
December 6th, 2015 at 1:32 AM ^
he took the time outs when MSU was still outside the 10, like he was setting up to let them in the endzone. When they got the first down at the 3, after they ran the ball the entire length of the field, I thought for sure he'd let them in. But nope, now it's time to make a last stand right here and MSU bleeds the clock to 27 seconds before scoring on 3rd down. Now you need a miracle to win because you have no time outs.
The other end of a screw up in this situation happened last week with ND, where they had 1st and goal from the 2 and punched it in on 1st down with 30 seconds to go. Stanford has time outs and charges right down the field and kicks the winning FG (with benefit of a 15-yard facemask). Everyone says "you expect your defense to be able to stop them." Well, obviously you shouldn't expect them to get a stop because they didn't. The team on offense has so much more control in that situation.
I would definitely call 30 seconds (with timeouts) the lower limit for reasonablly being able to take a kickoff and score a FG. A lot had to go right for Stanford to win that game. 1 minute is much more reasonable. In Iowa's case, Ferentz took the time outs at a decent time, preserving minutes on the clock, but once they have first and goal at the 3, and certainly when they have 2nd and goal at the 1 with ~1 minute to go, you have to let them in the endzone so you have any real chance to get down the field and kick a FG.
Coaches need a "1 minute rule" and design the time outs around it, but they just don't.
December 6th, 2015 at 1:29 AM ^
December 6th, 2015 at 1:33 AM ^
Iowa should have faked a few injuries to get a breather like their opponent did.