Extension - The more likely scenario
Trying to look at this dispassionately, the situation with Harbaugh, I think, leans much more heavily towards Michigan signing Harbaugh to an extension than towards giving him the boot.
1. They were working on an extension at the beginning of the year before COVID hit. Yes, this year weighs heavily on this, but much of the sentiments in the AD and the statistics they are looking at are the same or very similar.
2. The AD has said that "Harbaugh can stay as long as he wants" or something similar. I don't see one season changing that.
3. 2020 is his one truly bad season. I don't think they'll look at that and say that's enough to set the whole program back to zero. Yes, the performance against the rivals and top 10 stinks, but has that really changed this year? The math is the same when they were talking extension.
4. COVID has changed everything. From eliminating spring ball, stopping the season, starting it back up, dealing with the restrictions required to run a program during COVID, it's just been a mess. I'm sure the retort will be, "but everyone else (OSU, Bama, Clemson, etc.) has had to deal with it too". Yes, they have, and everyone of them has had a COVID outbreak. If we navigate this without an issue, I think that will be held up as Harbs "doing it right" and sacrificing the football for health sakes.
Don't get me wrong, I'm completely unsatisfied and was screaming at the set yesterday and vented a bit here after the game. I'm looking for a coaching change too, but I just don't think it will happen. I think they'll give him an extension with a reworked buy out and a requirement to change the staff, specifically the DC and maybe even the OC. Giving him a "second chance" to turn this around will be deemed fair by the administration.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^
I think the opt out guys we have versus others needs to be examined. Why do we seem to have so many up and coming starters leave when others don't have as high of a loss rate. Personally, I don't see a team that is all that together. I think that the internal team spirit is lacking. There are many signs of that on gameday.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Teams that return a lot of production from last year are abnormally good and teams that lost a ton of production from last year are abnormally bad, likely due to the weird season. Michigan was rated 125th in returning production back in February. Since being rated 125th by ESPN, we lost the following players for part or all of the season:
- Nico
- Ambry
- Paye
- Hutch
- Mayfield
- Hayes
- McGrone
- Hawkins
That's our five best players and a couple more starters on top.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
Exactly. People are judging the program based heavily on this year, which was going to be rough regardless... and then add on the off season transfers and covid fallout.
There are serious shortcomings inside the program, but this season was always going to be blech.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:36 PM ^
Penn State started 5 freshmen on offense against UofM. They also lost Micah Parsons, a probable Heisman candidate. Every roster suffered.
November 29th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
Penn State and our roster suffered, true.
That does not validate your last point.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:22 AM ^
And? Penn State sucks. This is just another example of how losing players is bad actually.
November 29th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
There's always an excuse for the Michigan program.
I used to play this game - "Michigan was only 5 plays from being 8-4" in 2008!!
There's no point in doing this anymore. If you recruit 30 guys a year and run off half your upperclassmen, like Harbaugh does every year, one reaps what one sows.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:40 PM ^
I think that Harbaugh finds his own way out. And although I am one of those strange alums who believes that academics should take precedence, I think that the school's rep as a football power is beginning to suffer too much for him to stay. He'll do the gallant thing, and remain in all of our good graces.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:51 PM ^
So when did you come to this conclusion? The football program has been on a slide since lloyd carr...
November 29th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
I think the slide started after 2004 season under Lloyd. Even the one good 11-2 season ended with a thud. The OL recruiting started to slip after that.
We tried three options: big name/no connection to program (Richrod), "michigan man" (Hoke), and dream candidate (JH). What we haven't tried is a guy whom other coaches respect for what they get out of their teams week in, week out, but aren't big names and have no M connection.
We need to find a younger version of Urban Meyer who has built a solid program w/o the noise.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:15 PM ^
Matt Campbell probably fits that description the closest.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
Yep. No retreads. Look for a guy with that kind of trajectory everywhere he has been.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:15 PM ^
You mean like Harbaugh?
November 29th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
Tom Allen fits that bill. The fact that he has UM alums on his staff is a bonus, but he gets the most out of his teams every year, and is a close to an elite defensive coach.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
Your avatar suggests that you have a tendency to overrate former Michigan football players.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^
Unless the unverified message board blathering about some mysterious medical condition turns out to have some factual basis, I think Harbaugh gets an extension with some reworked details about buyout. It wouldn't surprise me if the extension was already basically done back in the beginning of the year but was put under wraps because of COVID and its financial impact.
I'm not saying this is the right move, just the most likely.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
Agreed
You don't announce a multi million dollar extension during COVID, when staff are being furloughed, raises are frozen, and you're begging donors for money citing extra costs. It's just not a good look.
The abysmal on-field results throw a bit of a wrench into the works here. It's very easy to say "weird year, doesn't represent the state of the program."
But that statement doesn't reflect the stupefying lack of game planning, awful clock management, and terrible roster management/talent evaluation. All of which are multi-year trends.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:43 PM ^
Give him a second chance? He's had a sixth chance...so nope.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
Great, we are officially Iowa
November 29th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
At least Iowa beats Ohio State once in a while.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^
Iowa has had more success in the last 10 years than Michigan, including a blowout win against OSU. Their defense, even in the age offense, hasn't given up over 25 points in a game since 2018. That's with barely any 4 star recruits. Iowa would mop the floor with Michigan if they played this season.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^
Ferentz’s Iowa team was 12-2 & finished first in the West in 2015
November 29th, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^
They also finished 10-3 last season and won their bowl game. Shit, they always seem to get up and play REALLY damn well in their bowl games. I’m jealous.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
We wish we were Iowa
November 29th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
To "rebuild" now -- which is what is in front of UM football -- will take a while.
You can get buy in from recruits if the rebuilding is under new management. With the existing group, what's the story that is plausible?
Thus, you must fire.
Anything else will lead to another shit year, more bad recruiting, and an even deeper crater to dig out from.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:50 PM ^
I'm upset and fucking angry man. I expect better leadership because I know... I hope he has it in him, but there has been so many bone headed leadership decisions that I'm unhappy with.
If he stays he needs to manage the team better. Stop running people away and get a better defensive coaching staff and running backs coach. I'm sick n tired of not having a clear cut RB1.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
So what, it only took an embarrassing 2 score loss to an 0-5 team at home for you to turn from the biggest & blindest Harbaugh apologist on the board into seeing the truth?
November 29th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
This isn't a good season and I give Harbaugh the benefit of the doubt because of how bad this year is. I'm upset like everyone else but I don't think firing and hiring is the clear cut solution because I've been on that train before.
We aren't going to "You're fired" our way to beating OSU without understanding why we are where are.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
Everyone but you and maybe Mongo clearly sees why we are where we are.
November 29th, 2020 at 6:18 PM ^
Listen to JH talk. The guy can't formulate a coherent thought nor can he even consistently conjugate verbs. He doesn't seem to know the difference in usage between adjectives and adverbs.
You tried to convince me here a few weeks ago he did very well at UM academically which is BS -- he would not have been accepted if not for football.
UM football stinks for some very simple reasons: Carr overstayed his usefulness and Bill Martin didn't have a transition plan, RichRod stunk, Hoke was a joke.
Harbaugh is an oddball who flipflops consistently and can neither recruit nor retain great players.
UM football is where it is because of terrible hires by Bill Martin and Dave Brandon.
Warde Manuel needs to clean this mess up by flushing the staff.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^
He won’t manage the team better. He is what he is. Us going 7-5/8-4 next year won’t change anything. It is like a guy who gets divorced, and has his second marriage fail. He can blame Drevno, he can blame prp Hamilton, he can blame Durkin, he can blame Don Brown. It doesn’t change who he is.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
Get a real RB and ST coach!
November 29th, 2020 at 12:54 PM ^
It's clear he doesn't have it anymore, and it goes beyond this season. Yes this team is inexperienced and decimated by injuries and opt outs; if this were the first hiccup then it would be easily forgivable. But he had 10 NFL draft picks last year, plus future draft picks in Collins, Mayfield, Paye, Hutchinson, and Thomas and he went 9-4 with 3 blowout losses, finishing a distant 3rd in the division yet again. Back to back years he's gotten blown out by OSU, once as a legit favorite with a Big Ten championship and playoff spot on the line. Michigan can't be slow to react here, his program has been on a decline for a number of years now and it's only getting worse.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Adding to what you are saying:
We seem to have no emotion and go out flat most every game. The players seem confused and frustrated and broken. The moment they face adversity they just seem to get down on themselves and give up.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
This is what bothers me the most. It’s as though they expect to lose and the first negative event (turnover, penalty) reinforces the expectation.
I watched a “bad” MSU team flying all over the field on defense against NW yesterday. They didn’t miss tackles and played hard even though there was “nothing” on the line. They had enough heart to rally after losing a 17 point lead. Would we ever expect to see this from a Michigan team?
November 29th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
Well don’t expect anything you mentioned above from a Harbaugh Michigan Team.
November 29th, 2020 at 4:13 PM ^
Agree 100% Stringer. This is always my response to the "look at all the talent we lost" argument. If we had so much talent, then why didn't we compete last year. Ten draft picks, and four losses!
November 29th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
The pandemic excuse could be used if we just fell short in a few games. Instead we have been embarrassed in all but one game this year and neither the offense or defense has approached competency.
one of the highest paid coaches in college mostly beats the teams he should, but for 1-2 bad losses per year, and never beats the teams he shouldn’t and rarely even challenges them. Why does that deserve a raise? It’s six seasons of data and nothing has improved in that time
November 29th, 2020 at 12:55 PM ^
The pandemic excuse could be used if we just fell short in a few games. Instead we have been embarrassed in all but one game this year and neither the offense or defense has approached competency.
one of the highest paid coaches in college mostly beats the teams he should, but for 1-2 bad losses per year, and never beats the teams he shouldn’t and rarely even challenges them. Why does that deserve a raise? It’s six seasons of data and nothing has improved in that time
November 29th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
I don't know man. Lots of players seem to be upset about how the coaching staff is running things. Player parents saying things like this feels like a harbinger
November 29th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^
All due respect to Mrs. Mayfield, but I doubt anyone could set up Joe for success. Too inaccurate and indecisive.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^
If only they had waited a few years and tried to coach him up before he was named the starter... oh
November 29th, 2020 at 1:22 PM ^
I would actually argue the playcalling has played a role in not helping either QB out, that is pretty obvious to me. They were doing things in the Minny game to help Joe out from a playcalling standpoint and have all but stopped doing any of those things since. They also barely did any of those things yesterday and not surprisingly both QB's struggled.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
Yep that was really an eye-opening comment. She also added “Setup is the key word. Started long before this game, but what do I know.”
Another eye-opening and disturbing item was this from the Michigan Daily:
“When freshman receiver A.J. Henning leapt over a Nittany Lions’ defender to make a highlight-reel catch, Harbaugh had to turn towards a group of players sitting on the bench and tell them to stand up and cheer.”
It seems obvious that he’s truly lost the team.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
During the Washington-Utah game last night I noticed the Husky players cheering on the sidelines trying to fire their team up even when they were down 21-0. Can't say I noticed anything like that on the Michigan sideline this year. By the way the Huskies came back to win the game 24-21. That was with a redshirt freshman QB and a new head coach by the way against Utah which always plays tough. I'm guessing Michigan doesn't win a game like that this year.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:36 PM ^
well, it that's true, that is definitely disturbing to me at least....
Parents of players tweeting is also a red flag
November 29th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
What we need is someone who can develop the QB. With McCarthy coming here next year, (Everything I have read is that he’s sold on Michigan and not necessarily the coaches) we have a good starting point. Also most of the recruits coming in next year want to put their stamp on this program right now. Plus they are more sold on McCarthy than anything. Right now he’s our best recruiter. I know he’s an 18 yo kid but he has the potential to resurrect this program now. We need to give him all the opportunities to make him great. The current staff is not that opportunity.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Either way, they need to decide quickly. Go all in, or cut bait. While I’d prefer a new regime, there is something to be said about making a strong commitment if they do an extension. We laughed when Iowa gave Ferentz his huge extension, but they’ve been pretty consistent over the years. I worry the regents would be satisfied being “Iowa”.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:03 PM ^
Can’t be Iowa. Ferentz wins games as an underdog.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:58 PM ^
Hopefully, whatever happens, the Board of Regents and President STFO - Warde was hired for tough times like these. What no one here really knows is what is going on in JH's head right now. Is he in a cave thinking things are really OK in the long-term? Does he think it's only injuries and "selfish" guys opting out (like the Cheeseman, Nico, Ambry, Dylan)? Is he feeling numb and really wanting out but on his terms with a package so he can take a year off and return to NFL for 2022?
I hope for his good and most of ours, it's an amicable exit in December. I was a student when he was our QB and still have found memories of his wins and big plays vs. ND, OSU, MSU, etc. Thought we would be in the playoffs in 3 years but things have cratered and I can't see the culture coming back to what it was for the Florida bowl game after '15.
The NFL will welcome him back after he has a year to clear his mind. And years from now he can come back to games and be cheered for what good things happened (as a player, beating dickhead Dantonio 44-10, etc.) and not for the mess that we see now.
This has become a Greek tragedy play and those never end well.