ESPN/Bill Connelly ranks every team that has made the current playoff format
ESPN.com / Bill Connelly has ranked all 36 teams that have made the College Football Playoff since the current format started in 2014. Probably something that would make more sense to make after this season is completed to see how the current 4 teams play, but it's a fun type of list nonetheless.
It is paywalled, but I'll put some of the write-ups for the notable ones, as I believe mods tend to be a bit more lenient with ESPN+ stuff.
36. 2015 Michigan State (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Alabama 38-0
Mark Dantonio's 2015 Spartans are definitive proof that no matter what the committee says, it is picking the four "most deserving" teams rather than the "best" -- MSU was definitively the former and in no way the latter. And that's fine! The Spartans finished 18th in FPI and 20th in SP+ but beat a dynamite Ohio State team and outlasted unbeaten Iowa to win the Big Ten. Then they did exactly what was expected of them against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl: They lost big.
35. 2018 Notre Dame (12-1)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 30-3
The Fighting Irish earned their spot in the playoff with increasingly dominant wins over quality Michigan, Stanford and Syracuse teams. Their defense was solid and exciting (10th in defensive SP+), but their offensive limitations were made crystal clear when they had to face Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. The game was tied after one quarter, but it got much, much worse from there.
31. 2016 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 31-0
After what might have been Urban Meyer's most talented Ohio State team missed the CFP in 2015, the most offensively limited one made it the next year. The defense was strong enough to limit Deshaun Watson and Clemson to just two touchdowns in the Tigers' first 10 drives in the semifinal, but the Buckeyes' offense, which ranked just 32nd in offensive SP+, got embarrassed and shut out.
27. 2021 Michigan (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 34-11
A loss to Michigan State set Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines back early on, but they took down Ohio State for the first time in a decade, then stomped Iowa to win their first outright Big Ten title since 2003. This was an excellent team and the champion of an excellent conference, but the Wolverines ran into a slight problem in the Orange Bowl: They weren't better than Georgia at anything. That will catch up to you.
14. 2022 Michigan (13-0)
CFP matchup: vs. TCU in Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
From an SP+ perspective, Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines grade out around the 99th percentile and right in line with quite a few recent CFP runners-up. They appear to be even better at the manball routine that brought them to the 2021 CFP, ranking among the nation's best in most rushing categories and clocking in at fourth in defensive SP+ and sixth in special teams. This is a beautifully well-rounded team.
5. 2021 Georgia (14-1)
4. 2022 Georgia (13-0)
3. 2018 Clemson (15-0)
2. 2019 LSU (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 63-28; beat Clemson 42-25
Plenty of coaches have attempted to modernize their offense in the hopes of giving their program a shot in the arm. Ed Orgeron's 2019 team set the bar impossibly high for any future modernizers. With help from an elite skill corps, Joe Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns (!!!). Once LSU's defense got healthy late in the year, the Tigers were untouchable, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning their last six games by an average of 30 points.
1. 2020 Alabama (13-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 31-14; beat Ohio State 52-24
The Crimson Tide had the Nos. 1, 3 and 5 finishers in the Heisman voting. They played one game decided by fewer than 14 points. They bested an SEC-only schedule by an average of 30.2 points per game. Their defense struggled early but allowed only 15 points per game after mid-October. This was the best Nick Saban team ever and quite possibly the best of the 21st century.
Best team ... from the best coach ... with the best dynasty of the 21st century (at the very least)? Sounds like the best team of the CFP era.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:12 PM ^
I don’t know why we give clicks to ESPN.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
Because they cover sports, and most of us like sports?
December 13th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
*Because they purvey fluff, and most of you like fluff
FTFY
December 12th, 2022 at 4:41 PM ^
I have to ask, did you click?
December 12th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
Haha good point
December 12th, 2022 at 7:14 PM ^
Game Day
December 12th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
2019 LSU > 2020 Bama by a slim-margin for me...even with LSU lacking on defense.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:27 PM ^
2020, as a CFB season, pretty much should not count for anything anyway...
December 12th, 2022 at 7:10 PM ^
Mostly agree - so many anomalies, like IU, A&M, the Pac12 north's #4 team being its champ.
But that Bama team WAS for real. Shame it happened in a weird year. But they were very very good.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
That 2019 LSU team would beat 2020 Alabama by double digits
December 12th, 2022 at 4:57 PM ^
Someday (hopefully soon) people will start to completely discount everything that happened in 2020 in college football.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:12 PM ^
2020 Bama was a great team, but yeah huge COVID asterisk if you’re having a “greatest playoff team ever” discussion. 2019 LSU would be my pick, they were unbelievable.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:13 PM ^
I would go as far as to say the 2018 Clemson and 2017 Alabama team would beat 2020 Alabama
December 12th, 2022 at 6:25 PM ^
lol this is bullshit.
2019 didn't even beat 2019 Alabama by double digits and 2020 Alabama was better than 2019 Alabama.
I'm not saying they'd win...but this is just hating on Bama for the sake of hating on Bama and there's nothing to suggest it's true.
December 12th, 2022 at 8:51 PM ^
I'd say taking any 2020 data as a one for one with any other recent year is bullshit. OSU went to the CFP after playing what, 7 total games?
December 12th, 2022 at 10:07 PM ^
No they weren’t. At full health the 2019 Alabama team had an offense of: Tua, Najee, Jeudy, Ruggs, Waddle, and Smith; with an offensive line that had 3 first round picks as well. They had 9 first round picks on offense alone and LSU went to Tuscaloosa and beat them.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:31 PM ^
Nine first rounders on offense alone.
Astounding talent on one team. How did Saban ever lose?
December 12th, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^
I know you're splitting hairs amongst which #1 is the most #1 but I'm surprised last year's Georgia team is so low and I'm especially surprised they're behind this year's Georgia team that doesn't look nearly as dominating and had a few some close calls vs meh teams
December 12th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
I agree. 21 Georgia >> 22 Georgia
December 12th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
Let's hope so!!!
December 12th, 2022 at 7:15 PM ^
For sure, last years defense was an NFL defense. This year they are good but not generational
December 12th, 2022 at 4:56 PM ^
This list has the data point of last year's team losing to Alabama in the SEC Championship game. That's the only reason the 22 version is ranked higher.
After Georgia loses to Michigan, they'll move down, and we'll move up.
December 12th, 2022 at 11:56 PM ^
Yes, that was a fun write up, but just by actually watching the games you can see that last year Georgia was better than this year Georgia. The fact that a truckload of NFL talent is gone corroborates.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:31 PM ^
When 2022 Michigan finishes 15-0, is it going to move up from 14 to 5? and 2022 Georgia will drop?
December 12th, 2022 at 6:19 PM ^
The article will go away never to be discussed again on sEcSPN. Much like the articles of how Pat Fitzgerald, Frames Janklin, and Kirk Ferentz are much better coaches then Jim Harbaugh.
December 12th, 2022 at 10:54 PM ^
Given that they have all sorts of caveats like, "If they win, then they will move up" for the 2022 teams, yes, if Michigan goes 15-0, they will definitely move up the list, probably to top 4.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:32 PM ^
Michigan will always be #1 in my heart and mind because they did it by the book and didn't break the rules to get their players.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:37 PM ^
And it will, even more simply, always be #1 in my heart because it's my alma mater and I love it! (My youngest daughter's alma mater, as well, and she loves it too.)
December 12th, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^
2022 TCU is #32.
Heisman runner-up Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs haven't been the most dominant team in the world, but they nearly made it through a deep Big 12 unscathed, losing only in overtime to a top-10 Kansas State team. They are mostly weakness-free, but their main strength is one that could come in handy from an underdog perspective: They can make big plays at any time, from anywhere, on any down and distance.
Edit: Also relevant, 2022 OSU is #23.
No team stands to potentially gain more from a CFP bid than Ryan Day's fourth Buckeyes team, which rolled through most of the regular season with little resistance -- 11 wins, all by double digits and seven by at least 29 points -- before face-planting against Michigan for the second straight year. While that threw the Buckeyes into a bit of an existential crisis, a win over Georgia in Atlanta would certainly flip their perceptions around quite a bit. (And a blowout loss would very much do the opposite.)
December 12th, 2022 at 4:36 PM ^
Oops, yes, thank you for posting. Meant to include that in OP.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:38 PM ^
They can make big plays at any time, from anywhere, on any down and distance.
hmmm...this sounds like another team I've seen recently...
December 12th, 2022 at 4:44 PM ^
Well allegedly TCU is capable of converting a 3rd down so the comparison may end there
December 12th, 2022 at 6:20 PM ^
Crucially, third and short.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
The Buckeyes are facing an extremely well-coached UGA team that will have had a month to prepare. While the Bulldogs will give-up some points (as their defense is not the buzzsaw it was in 21), their offense is better than last year's version and I don't see how Knowles' break-but-don't-bend defense can contain their athletes.
That said, Ohio is talented enough to keep this a game for one or two quarters, unlike 2021 Michigan. But I think it ends with UGA winning by 14+ points with a very comfortable second half.
December 12th, 2022 at 6:22 PM ^
The buckeyes finishing a season 0-2 while on the road vs a powerhouse SEC team in their back yard? Yes fucking please. Do that for a half decade and lets see how it works out. Meanwhile we will play a less perfect team out west. How the turn tables.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:35 PM ^
After seeing Jefferson, Chase and Burrow in the NFL. Burrows numbers, as crazy as they are, actually make sense.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
Jefferson is a magician...good chance he break the single season yards record this year. Most polished route-runner in the league.
December 12th, 2022 at 9:15 PM ^
Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams would like a word. I can probably agree that JJ is the best WR in the league today due to his athleticism and balls skills, but Diggs and Adams are both superior route runners, particularly Diggs.
December 12th, 2022 at 4:53 PM ^
Turns out that LSU team really *was* that loaded on offense.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:00 PM ^
Can't agree with a 2020 team being #1, if only for the fact that everything felt off that year. 2019 LSU with Burrow/Chase/Jefferson gets my vote. That team was lightning in a bottle. The fact that a middling coach like Ed O led them just shows how crazy the team was.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:16 PM ^
It was Joe Brady coming in as “passing game coordinator” that did it. I’m pretty sure Orgeron’s buddy was still technically the OC, so they basically did it with a dead weight coordinator as well. It would be like OSU’s defense being the best ever in 2021 after demoting Coombs.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:02 PM ^
2019 LSU team was absolutely stacked on offense and darn good on defense. i'd have put them as #1, and one of the best teams of all time.
they never looked like they were close to losing a game all season.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
2021 UGA being behind 2022 UGA feels like a time where the fancy stats might be a misleading.
2022 UGA's offense is very highly rated but I feel like their is a path to slowing them down (Mizzou did it with pash rush).
Compare this to 2021 UGA which required a Heisman QB and two 1st round WRs to manage scoring any points.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:14 PM ^
In a game where Georgia didn’t have much lose and Alabama had everything to gain
December 12th, 2022 at 5:19 PM ^
2015 Sparty ranked dead last lol. Hooo boy. I wonder how this will be blamed on Michigan.
December 12th, 2022 at 5:36 PM ^
Of course, it's Michigan's fault. If Sparty lost to Michigan in 2015, they wouldn't have had to endure the ignominy of 38-0 in the CFP!
December 12th, 2022 at 7:17 PM ^
Tunnel vision
December 13th, 2022 at 4:23 AM ^
Why does everyone keep dumping on MSU? It’s like a constant barrage of excrement for them. Just another shit sandwich for them to eat…
December 12th, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^
Wasn't there a thread recently where Connelly thought OSU would be a slight favorite against UM if they meet again this year? Or am I not remembering right. If I remember right, I am not trusting his numbers as much as I used to.