ESPN/Bill Connelly ranks every team that has made the current playoff format

Submitted by BeatOSU52 on December 12th, 2022 at 4:08 PM

ESPN.com / Bill Connelly has ranked all 36 teams that have made the College Football Playoff since the current format started in 2014.  Probably something that would make more sense to make after this season is completed to see how the current 4 teams play, but it's a fun type of list nonetheless. 

 

It is paywalled, but I'll put some of the write-ups for the notable ones, as I believe mods tend to be a bit more lenient with ESPN+ stuff. 

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/35233838/ranking-all-36-teams-made-college-football-playoff

 

36. 2015 Michigan State (12-2)

CFP result: Lost to Alabama 38-0

Mark Dantonio's 2015 Spartans are definitive proof that no matter what the committee says, it is picking the four "most deserving" teams rather than the "best" -- MSU was definitively the former and in no way the latter. And that's fine! The Spartans finished 18th in FPI and 20th in SP+ but beat a dynamite Ohio State team and outlasted unbeaten Iowa to win the Big Ten. Then they did exactly what was expected of them against Alabama in the Cotton Bowl: They lost big.

 

35. 2018 Notre Dame (12-1)

CFP result: Lost to Clemson 30-3

The Fighting Irish earned their spot in the playoff with increasingly dominant wins over quality Michigan, Stanford and Syracuse teams. Their defense was solid and exciting (10th in defensive SP+), but their offensive limitations were made crystal clear when they had to face Clemson in the Cotton Bowl. The game was tied after one quarter, but it got much, much worse from there.

 

31. 2016 Ohio State (11-2)
CFP result: Lost to Clemson 31-0

After what might have been Urban Meyer's most talented Ohio State team missed the CFP in 2015, the most offensively limited one made it the next year. The defense was strong enough to limit Deshaun Watson and Clemson to just two touchdowns in the Tigers' first 10 drives in the semifinal, but the Buckeyes' offense, which ranked just 32nd in offensive SP+, got embarrassed and shut out.

 

27. 2021 Michigan (12-2)
CFP result: Lost to Georgia 34-11

A loss to Michigan State set Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines back early on, but they took down Ohio State for the first time in a decade, then stomped Iowa to win their first outright Big Ten title since 2003. This was an excellent team and the champion of an excellent conference, but the Wolverines ran into a slight problem in the Orange Bowl: They weren't better than Georgia at anything. That will catch up to you.

 

14. 2022 Michigan (13-0)
CFP matchup: vs. TCU in Vrbo Fiesta Bowl

From an SP+ perspective, Jim Harbaugh's Wolverines grade out around the 99th percentile and right in line with quite a few recent CFP runners-up. They appear to be even better at the manball routine that brought them to the 2021 CFP, ranking among the nation's best in most rushing categories and clocking in at fourth in defensive SP+ and sixth in special teams. This is a beautifully well-rounded team.

 

5.  2021 Georgia (14-1)

4. 2022 Georgia (13-0)

3. 2018 Clemson (15-0)

 

2. 2019 LSU (15-0)
CFP result: Beat Oklahoma 63-28; beat Clemson 42-25

Plenty of coaches have attempted to modernize their offense in the hopes of giving their program a shot in the arm. Ed Orgeron's 2019 team set the bar impossibly high for any future modernizers. With help from an elite skill corps, Joe Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and 60 touchdowns (!!!). Once LSU's defense got healthy late in the year, the Tigers were untouchable, beating Alabama in Tuscaloosa, then winning their last six games by an average of 30 points.

 

1. 2020 Alabama (13-0)
CFP result: Beat Notre Dame 31-14; beat Ohio State 52-24

The Crimson Tide had the Nos. 1, 3 and 5 finishers in the Heisman voting. They played one game decided by fewer than 14 points. They bested an SEC-only schedule by an average of 30.2 points per game. Their defense struggled early but allowed only 15 points per game after mid-October. This was the best Nick Saban team ever and quite possibly the best of the 21st century.

Best team ... from the best coach ... with the best dynasty of the 21st century (at the very least)? Sounds like the best team of the CFP era.

lhglrkwg

December 12th, 2022 at 4:29 PM ^

I know you're splitting hairs amongst which #1 is the most #1 but I'm surprised last year's Georgia team is so low and I'm especially surprised they're behind this year's Georgia team that doesn't look nearly as dominating and had a few some close calls vs meh teams

Bosch

December 12th, 2022 at 4:33 PM ^

2022 TCU is #32.

Heisman runner-up Max Duggan and the Horned Frogs haven't been the most dominant team in the world, but they nearly made it through a deep Big 12 unscathed, losing only in overtime to a top-10 Kansas State team. They are mostly weakness-free, but their main strength is one that could come in handy from an underdog perspective: They can make big plays at any time, from anywhere, on any down and distance.

Edit:  Also relevant, 2022 OSU is #23.

No team stands to potentially gain more from a CFP bid than Ryan Day's fourth Buckeyes team, which rolled through most of the regular season with little resistance -- 11 wins, all by double digits and seven by at least 29 points -- before face-planting against Michigan for the second straight year. While that threw the Buckeyes into a bit of an existential crisis, a win over Georgia in Atlanta would certainly flip their perceptions around quite a bit. (And a blowout loss would very much do the opposite.)

Blue Middle

December 12th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^

The Buckeyes are facing an extremely well-coached UGA team that will have had a month to prepare.  While the Bulldogs will give-up some points (as their defense is not the buzzsaw it was in 21), their offense is better than last year's version and I don't see how Knowles' break-but-don't-bend defense can contain their athletes.

That said, Ohio is talented enough to keep this a game for one or two quarters, unlike 2021 Michigan.  But I think it ends with UGA winning by 14+ points with a very comfortable second half.

MacMarauder

December 12th, 2022 at 5:00 PM ^

Can't agree with a 2020 team being #1, if only for the fact that everything felt off that year. 2019 LSU with Burrow/Chase/Jefferson gets my vote. That team was lightning in a bottle. The fact that a middling coach like Ed O led them just shows how crazy the team was.

drjaws

December 12th, 2022 at 5:02 PM ^

2019 LSU team was absolutely stacked on offense and darn good on defense. i'd have put them as #1, and one of the best teams of all time.

they never looked like they were close to losing a game all season.

Ghost of North Hall

December 12th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^

2021 UGA being behind 2022 UGA feels like a time where the fancy stats might be a misleading.

2022 UGA's offense is very highly rated but I feel like their is a path to slowing them down (Mizzou did it with pash rush).

Compare this to 2021 UGA which required a Heisman QB and two 1st round WRs to manage scoring any points. 

UMForLife

December 12th, 2022 at 6:33 PM ^

Wasn't there a thread recently where Connelly thought OSU would be a slight favorite against UM if they meet again this year? Or am I not remembering right. If I remember right, I am not trusting his numbers as much as I used to.