ESPN FPI Team Efficiencies Update, Wk. 7

Submitted by Ecky Pting on

The updated FPI team efficiency ratings have been posted and Michigan, overall, maintains the #2 position, while OSU inched back up from #6 to #5 overall. The U-M splits are offense, #8 (up from #9); defense, #2 (up 1 spot from #3); and special teams inches up to #11 from #12.

Of U-M's 2016 opponents, Colorado - now at #9, up from #12 - still remains the highest rated team U-M will have faced before meeting OSU in November. Wisconsin is four spots behind Colorado at #13 (up from #14 despite losing to OSU). The already vanquished UCF is currently rated above 5 of Michigan's other opponents this season, including Sparty, of course. At #90, Michigan State isn't even close to being the second best team in the state. Indeed, MSU narrowly avoided being the lowest rated team in the state by just edging out Eastern, who is at #91. Western, at #7 and on track for an undefeated season, is looking like a dark-horse Group of Five entrant.

Here's the selectively abbreviated synopsis of the ratings. Click the link above to see the whole list &/or sort by category:

RK TEAM OFF. DEF. S/T O'ALL.
1 Alabama, SEC 73.6 98.5 53.6 95.1
2 Michigan, Big Ten 80.4 94.9 69.9 94.2
3 Washington, Pac-12 87.4 85.8 71.4 93.2
4 Louisville, ACC 93.8 76.2 33.3 90.9
5 OSU, Big Ten 77.8 88.8 62.7 90.0
6 Clemson, ACC 69.6 88.2 49.9 85.3
7 W Michigan, MAC 89.2 61.9 50.9 84.6
8 Texas A&M, SEC 77.7 77.8 63.1 84.3
9 Colorado, Pac-12 78.6 83.2 23.8 81.8
10 Boise State, MW 80.5 74.4 41.2 81.4
13 Wisconsin, Big Ten 53.7 88.4 54.6 77.9
33 Iowa, Big Ten 60.3 61.9 66.9 67.0
43 Maryland, Big Ten 47.1 66.7 63.5 62.8
57 Penn State, Big Ten 56.0 57.7 42.2 56.6
62 UCF, American 34.6 67.4 60.8 53.8
73 Indiana, Big Ten 37.2 61.4 45.2 47.8
79 C Michigan, MAC 44.6 56.2 28.2 45.1
83 Illinois, Big Ten 35.1 48.8 60.7 43.1
90 Michigan State, Big Ten 46.9 40.3 45.4 41.0
91 E Michigan, MAC 40.4 40.5 61.2 40.5
100 Hawai'i, MW 47.2 30.8 48.0 35.0
117 Rutgers, Big Ten 14.5 38.9 47.0 20.2

 

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NittanyFan

October 16th, 2016 at 1:58 PM ^

lost a home game to USC 69-0 ---- that game was very very very very much like the U-M/Rutgers game.  

Lost every Pac-10 game by at least 28 points, except one: they did beat Washington in the Apple Cup.  Washington was 0-12 themselves that year.  In the aggregate: WSU was a whole whole lot worse than UW though.

WSU and Washington of course have turned it around dramatically since 2008 --- this version of the Apple Cup may be the Pac-12 game of the year.  So, it can be turned around.  Even by Rutgers.

Joined: 12/04/2012

MGoPoints: 43772

I Like Burgers

October 16th, 2016 at 10:49 AM ^

Think they also bumped up Michigan's chances of winning the Ohio State game around 5% or so.  Its 49.5% now, and I think it was around 44% last week.  Forgot to look at it last night before they updated it.

For Michigan's remaining games, they have the expected chance to win at:

Illinois - 98.6%

at Michigan St - 95.7%

Maryland - 97.5%

at Iowa - 89%

Indiana - 97.7%

at Ohio State - 49.5%

That MSU one still blows my mind...

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

I Like Burgers

October 16th, 2016 at 11:51 AM ^

It could be 100% and I'd still be nervous that MSU would get their shit together just in time, or have some fluke thing go their way.  They are probably hard at work in the Sparty labs conjuring Garbage Tornado 2: Son of Trashnado to try and aid their cause this season.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

LSAClassOf2000

October 16th, 2016 at 5:08 PM ^

It's a similar story over at Massey Ratings, which now has the chances of a Michigan victory in East Lansing at 91%. Like you, I trend towards the cautious when going into this game, but watching them play three games so far this year, each time I have less trouble with the idea that we might be able to walk in their and have our way with them for at least some of that game. 

Joined: 01/07/2011

MGoPoints: 130748

I Like Burgers

October 16th, 2016 at 11:47 AM ^

Surprises me too.  FPI doesn't take it into account, but if there's a trap game on the schedule, that's it.

Although if you look at their schedule Indiana might not be as good as they seem.  They barely beat a terrible MSU team (24-21), lost to a maybe not bad Wake Forest team, lost to a Nebraska team that is undefeated but no one really knows how good they are, and they lost by 21 to the only verified good team on their schedule.

Joined: 10/06/2012

MGoPoints: 30575

Indiana Blue

October 16th, 2016 at 11:14 AM ^

head to head.  Maryland 43 and PSU 57 ???   I believe Maryland has had the ass handed to them by Penn State.  Geez ... worthless data.

BTW - where was Nebraska ?  OK name the only team Nebraska has played with an over .500 record ????   Wyoming.

Go Blue!

Joined: 09/19/2010

MGoPoints: 5677

Quailman

October 16th, 2016 at 11:25 AM ^

Ummm...yeah, no, it's not a poll so its not concerned with one result. It's a reflection of a team's performances for the whole year to date. 

Team efficiencies are based on the point contributions of each unit to the team's scoring margin, on a per-play basis. The values are adjusted for strength of schedule and down-weighted for "garbage time" (based on win probability). The scale goes from 0 to 100; higher numbers are better and the average is roughly 50 for all categories. Efficiencies update daily during the season.

Joined: 08/30/2013

MGoPoints: 19834

Der Alte

October 16th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^

Colorado disassembled Ariz St 40-16 last night. Colorado's victory included a 75-yard TD run by Phillp Lindsay, who looked pretty good against M some weeks ago. Colorado has games against Stanford (winnable) UCLA, Ariz, Wash St (all very winnable). Their last test will be against Utah on Nov 26. They have a good chance to finish 10-2 or 9-3, in the top 25, and further burnish M's brand.

Joined: 07/30/2010

MGoPoints: 1925

Walter Sobchak

October 16th, 2016 at 9:30 PM ^

These ratings are a little funky.   Colorado has a better defense than Ohio State?  Our office is much more efficient than Alabamas?  Just to name a couple.

Joined: 03/12/2010

MGoPoints: 10663