ESPN FPI predicts tOSU to win it all, M #6.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^
Good.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:33 AM ^
Same FPI that predicted this last year: (so close)
Alabama 5
Ohio State 3
Georgia 1
Clemson 12
Notre Dame 18
Texas 25
Michigan 3
Oklahoma Unranked
Pittsburgh 22
Auburn Unranked
April 18th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Either I'm blind or you didn't quote that correctly at all. It looks to me like last year's predicted Bama to win, OSU #2, UM #7, Georgia #3, among others. So, no, not actually that close at all. Also, last year's had ND #5 and Texas #6, so LMFAO inaccurate.
Also, this year Texas reappears at #6. So, let me go into my- the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results- w/r to Steve Sarkisian, one of the most mediocre coaches in football, the Rick Neuheisel of his generation. Sarkisian has 9 full years in the books at 3 blue-blood programs and never had to prove his way up (like Neuheisel). In 9 years his best record is 9-4 which he achieved exactly one time. He reached 8 wins two times. His teams have finished in the consensus top-20 zero times, but did manage an AP 20/Coaches 21 once. His average record in his 9 seasons is 6.6 wins, 5.4 losses. But, sure, in year 10 he'll finally have a contender. Is there literally any coach in history who had that shitty a record for that long and then suddenly became a great coach?
April 18th, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
whoosh
No idea why the media is still sold on Steve Sarkisian given his long and dismal track record. Sark should hang it up. He’d clearly be more successful as a cult leader or politician.
April 19th, 2023 at 12:21 AM ^
Texas is a blue blood school that is in the hottest of hot beds for recruiting talent and not to mention the historical pedigree they have.
They SHOULD be in the conversation every year with a somewhat competent coach.
I guess the media *thinks* Sarkisian is somewhat competent.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:36 AM ^
This entire thread is misquoted. FPI doesn't and didn't predict anything. This is a team quality ranking, not a prediction of results. There is a very fine difference between the two.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:47 AM ^
What? ESPN is literally using this to predict who will win the title. But if it's grossly inaccurate, like last year, it gets the vague excuse of being just a "quality" predictor. What is this, soccer?
April 18th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
Incorrect. They are quite literally not predicting anything. However, what they have done is project the likelihood of certain events. You may notice the many percentages and "chances" littered throughout the article.
Literally nowhere do they say "OSU will win the national championship," though they do say the model sees the Buckeyes as having the best chance to win it all.
FPI is, as you said, a discrete event percentage calculator; famously last year they said Texas was favored in all their games say I think Bama but didn't obviously claim they'd go 11-1 or whatever. But that also makes it a somewhat useless preseason prognostication - it's saying "these are quality teams" against some metric but seemingly doesn't want you to actually weigh teams against each other with said metric.
It's weird to me now that they have SP+ that they still use FPI because they tend to contradict each other both at the season as well as per-game instances.
But they literally are using FPI to make predictions. A majority of their FPI page is dedicated to "projections." They project win-loss records, conference champions, and playoff participants. And their in-game win probability and their Allstate Playoff Predictor are derived from FPI.
Projection does not mean the same thing as prediction. They very literally are different things.
Last year wasn't grossly inaccurate. It was actually very accurate.
It predicted that Bama, UGA and OSU would be the best teams. And they were the best teams, give or a take a Michigan which they thought would be the 7th best team so they weren't far off.
Outcomes have a bit of noise, so Alabama lost two games by four points combined on the road to top ten teams and hence were eliminated from the playoff but they were a top 3 team.
Similarly, just because TCU won a bunch of lucky games doesn't mean they were actually that good. Hence the complete joke of a national title game.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:17 PM ^
Alabama also won some close games. They beat UT and Tamu by 5 combined points. Also, they beat an Ole Miss squad by 6. ND and Clemson last year with no QBs? OSU this year with lack of same?
IDK, man. I think there's some bias cooked in too the FPI, and it's doing its job to generate clicks.
It is by definition an unbiased statistical model. It's literally the least biased college football content on ESPN (along with SP+ which are somewhat redundant). The only human input is recruiting rankings but that's because those have proven to be quite predictive.
The hot take articles and talking heads are for clicks. And of course FPI is for clicks because all content hopes to get clicks but it's not meant to produce crazy results. It's quite boring in fact. It follows closely with recruiting rankings and past performance (with some element of returning starters and some other factors).
What? Here is a quote from FPI site:
The Football Power Index (FPI) is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
seriously clark?
April 18th, 2023 at 12:22 PM ^
"the Rick Neuheisel of his generation" LOL
I don't get it either. I know plenty of people with drug and alcohol problems, but why would you risk a guy relapsing when he's a mediocre coach?
April 18th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^
It'd be better if you were actually blind and not that you read the post and came to the conclusions you did.
April 18th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
The post to which you are responding listed all those teams in the order of FPI's predictions, with the actual finishes next to them. In a way, your comment is kind of a masterpiece.
"the rick neuheisel of his generation" is gold, jerry, gold!
Chat GPT: #HOLDMYBEER
April 18th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
stop putting the t in front of osu. why do michigan fans do this
April 18th, 2023 at 10:26 AM ^
Stockholm Syndrome
April 18th, 2023 at 10:42 AM ^
right?!?!
the whole "THE ohio state university" thing is completely laughable, calling them tOSU only validates their idiocy.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
So special even how they pronounce: "THEE" Wonder what the grads, students and fans emphasize when ordering Natty Daddy's??
April 18th, 2023 at 11:38 AM ^
I upvoted you b/c I'm replying to you.
But I am genuinely puzzled how using the mockery of tOSU is validation. If anyone wrote TOSU, maybe it's indicating support for the pretentiousness, but tOSU.
[FWIW, what I think is laughable is downvoting someone over a letter.]
April 18th, 2023 at 11:45 AM ^
So, they started that because there were other State Universities and they wanted to identify 'The One', am I understanding this right?
Not exactly.
People use "the" before some words, including "university." "We visit the hospital." "We went to the fire station." "We attend the University of Michigan." It's normal usage
However, for other university names, there's no "the." No one says "We go to the Stanford," "We attend the Northwestern," "We enjoy ourselves at the Purdue."
It's simply the way people speak English. (England varies, not using a "the" before "university.")
So what Ohio State is doing—I"m assuming after paying big bucks to some consulting firm—is trying to SEEM special by adding this nonsensical and pretentious "the."
It's like calling yourself "The Maestro."
April 18th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
The correct term is: AN Ohio State University- Flavortown Campus.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:43 AM ^
1. No
2. Because it highlights the absurdity of OSU emphasizing the "The"
April 18th, 2023 at 11:03 AM ^
Great counterpoint. It's a very hard thing to say out loud without laughter ensuing, from almost every quarter, including OSU fans, who are (then) forced to acknowledge how silly it sounds.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
I guess it is shorthand for THEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE OSU.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:23 AM ^
To use "The Ohio State" WOULD be honoring their idiocy.
But to use "tOSU" mocks it. It's a
While I understand some disagree, what I don't understand is why the complaints.
With all the slang and slurs slung here, why object to mocking the "the" Ohio State University?
April 18th, 2023 at 10:21 PM ^
"tOSU" is how a lot of Buckeyes themselves write it. I don't see how that's mocking.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:45 PM ^
Really?
If that's accurate, I'll stop using it.
As I mentioned elsewhere, I genuinely didn't understand why this annoys any Michigan fan, much less LOTS of the board.
Again, it seemed obvious mockery to me because their stupidly pretentious use requires all initial caps, The Ohio State University, so a small "t' undermined that. Mocked it.
But if they're doing the same thing, it may be time to change.
The Toeshoes? (aka, tosu.) The THEES?
Unfortunately, the very worst thing we could call them, they wouldn't understand as mockery: Ohio State.
April 18th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^
tOSU = Ohio State
OSU = Oklahoma State
lol
OSU is OSU, the other one is Okie State or OKST
April 18th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^
Michigan fans don’t
i put AN in front because they are one of a number of state universities in Ohio
Neither article, not "an" and not "the," is normal usage.
April 18th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
Because it is better than World Famous as Gus would have it.
Christ, he needs to stop with that. I doubt Joe Average in Belgium has heard of them.
I just call them Ohio State. "OSU" is reserved for Oklahoma St or Oregon St
I heard it on good authority it's really THE "University of Ohio State," hence, tUOS. Do I have that wrong?
I will sign off on anything that moves the collective fanbase further from corny, cringeworthy "trash talk" similar to:
"scUM"
"TTUN"
and the always clever "WalMart Wolverines"
April 18th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^
Maybe they can finally get home after starting on third.
April 18th, 2023 at 10:45 AM ^
Given that last year they moved back to second I think this is unlikely.