Does Cincinnati Get In The CFP Now?
I didn't want to make another "where will Michigan be in the CFP" thread, because 1. Beat ohio and 2. Very likely #5. Even if we jump to #4 we'll either be at #3 after next week or out of the playoff picture. So yeah, Beat ohio.
However, with Oregon getting smoked by Utah, things are about to get interesting with Cincinnati. Barring us jumping them this week, they're about to be in the top 4 in the actual CFP ranking for the first time. The question will be, if they win out, can anyone skip over them to take that final spot? Here's the teams that have a chance to still make it:
1. Georgia: They're in no matter what at this point. The only thing that knocks them out is a loss to GT which... yeah. They're in, even if they lose the SEC.
2. Alabama: They're not necessarily in. A loss to Georgia probably knocks them out in all likelihood, but depending on how close it is, they could still make it in. A loss next week definitely knocks them out though. No matter what happens here, it'll be dramatic.
3. Ohio State: They're in the same situation as us. Win next week and they're likely in, possibly even if they happen to lose in Indy. It wouldn't be the first time.
6. Michigan: See above. Same situation.
8. Notre Dame: They've been playing really well against crap teams, which is better than someone like Oklahoma can say at least. This is an option for a team that could conceivably skip over Cincinnati, but the head to head might make that impossible.
9. Oklahoma State: Should they win the Big 12, for my money, the Cowboys are the best shot at a team outside of the B1G and SEC jumping Cincinnati. They're in the championship game already, and I do think they'll beat Oklahoma. They might even have to play them twice in a row. The question is will that be enough?
11. Baylor: They need to take care of business against Texas Tech and they're in Arlington. Lose and OK/OkSt. rematch no matter who wins. But a win against OkSt. in a rematch could put them in great position to take the 4th playoff spot.
13. Oklahoma: They'd need to win out, but it's possible they claw back into this thing with some signature wins against tough teams. Oklahoma this season has been essentially the opposite of Nebraska: finding ways to win games against inferior teams they've played horribly against. Would two top-ten wins in a row be enough to overcome that?
The ACC and Pac-12 are out at this point, with Wake Forest and Oregon losing today. Out of the teams above, the only team I think has a real shot at that fourth spot is Oklahoma State. Maybe if Bama loses twice or gets destroyed badly enough by Georgia, they fall down far enough to let both the Big 12 winner and Notre Dame sneak in there. Or maybe the B1G West wins for once and knocks our conference out entirely. This time of year is so fun because possibilities abound.
In the end, I think Georgia, Michigan, Cincinnati, and Oklahoma State make the actual CFP, hopefully in that order. Bama could easily take that last spot though.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:37 AM ^
Not if Oklahoma St stays with one loss. I think Cincy's only chance is if Alabama gets beat somewhat resoundingly by Georgia in the SEC championship game.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:55 AM ^
an undefeated Cincy will get in along with…
A one loss B10 team (2 remaining that play each other)
A one loss B12 team (2 remaining and they play each other possibly twice)
And the winner of Georgia Alabama
A one loss ND team will not move ahead of an undefeated Cincy team that beat them head to head
Pac12 and ACC are out
A two loss Alabama is out
The only debate is if Alabama beats Georgia, Cincy can squeeze out Georgia unless the game is close. Georgia’s quality wins were supposed to be against Clemson and Florida, preseason 3 and 11. But those teams are no longer ranked and they only beat Clemson 10-3. They did crush Arkansas, but the committee may decide to put Cincy in over two SEC teams.
I’m not saying at all that they are the 4th best team in the scenario above. There are at least 10 other teams that would beat them. At least 4 in the big 10 alone.
This all may not matter as Cincy can easily lose to Houston.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:37 AM ^
An undefeated UGA is not getting jumped by Cinci if they lose to Bama in the SEC championship.
The question is if BAMA loses a close one to UGA in the SEC championship, does BAMA stay in the top 4.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:30 AM ^
A 2 loss Bama should be out of the cfp entirely. I don’t care who the coach is or how good they’ve been in past years.
November 21st, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
Fivethirtyeight’s prediction model disagrees with you on Georgia getting in over Cincy if Georgia loses and Cincy wins out. 
November 21st, 2021 at 12:49 AM ^
A loss to Georgia probably knocks them out in all likelihood, but depending on how close it is, they could still make it in. A loss next week definitely knocks them out though.
I'd think Alabama could afford a close loss to Auburn more than a close loss to Georgia, because beating Georgia gives them an SEC championship. I don't think they keep the SEC champ out, even with two (close road) losses.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:47 AM ^
2 losses and Alabama is out. But if Georgia loses to Alabama they will likely still be in. I wouldn't have a problem with it.
The game I would like to see is Cincinnati vs Utah, or Cincinnati vs Wisconsin. Just wishing, that's all.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:59 AM ^
That’s my read also. Two loss Alabama would have absolutely no chance, but a close Alabama win over Georgia would buoy Alabama enough that they’re in, and it probably wouldn’t knock Georgia past four. Also, the Big Ten champ goes in easily. After that though, Cincinnati doesn’t impress me, but they apparently impress the pollsters, so they’re in. And Oklahoma St with a win over Oklahoma is tough to deny. ND’s only win over a ranked opponent is over a Wisconsin team that will be one of a handful of good wins that the Big Ten champ holds, so I don’t see how they have a claim.
It looks to me like unless someone else surprises us (let it be UM please), we’re getting UGA, Ohio State, Cinci, and Ok State.
But that makes for Utah-Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the obvious caveat being that UM has to play OSU better than the Spartans did. The Purdue loss, the MSU-UM officiating mess, the degree of the MSU loss to OSU, and the huge disparity in MSU and UM vs common opponent Maryland make UM the Rose Bowl choice.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:59 AM ^
That’s my read also. Two loss Alabama would have absolutely no chance, but a close Alabama win over Georgia would buoy Alabama enough that they’re in, and it probably wouldn’t knock Georgia past four. Also, the Big Ten champ goes in easily. After that though, Cincinnati doesn’t impress me, but they apparently impress the pollsters, so they’re in. And Oklahoma St with a win over Oklahoma is tough to deny. ND’s only win over a ranked opponent is over a Wisconsin team that will be one of a handful of good wins that the Big Ten champ holds, so I don’t see how they have a claim.
It looks to me like unless someone else surprises us (let it be UM please), we’re getting UGA, Ohio State, Cinci, and Ok State.
But that makes for Utah-Michigan in the Rose Bowl, the obvious caveat being that UM has to play OSU better than the Spartans did. The Purdue loss, the MSU-UM officiating mess, the degree of the MSU loss to OSU, and the huge disparity in MSU and UM vs common opponent Maryland make UM the Rose Bowl choice.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:05 AM ^
What if the B1G West wins in Indy then ... wait ,,, HAHAHAHAHAHA that's silliness I know ,,, then B1G probably doesn't get a representative.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:29 AM ^
A two loss Alabama if they lose to 6-5 Auburn has no business in the playoff, I dont care what they've done in years past.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^
I'm not arguing what ought to be the case. I don't think they would have any business in the playoff either. I'm saying I could see it though.
SEC champs with a win over Georgia? Even with two close road losses, the SOS is much better than Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Oklahoma/Okla St. (The latter could very well cannibalize each other.). Just consider me skeptical that G5 Cincinnati or a Notre Dame that lost to them (and played a mediocre schedule otherwise) gets in over SEC champ Alabama.
November 21st, 2021 at 12:52 AM ^
If Cincinnati somehow makes it in, the game will look similar to Bama vs MSU, possibly worse. I've been hoping they lose for this reason.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:18 AM ^
Can’t you say the same about whoever gets that 4th spot?
I didn’t think they would be earlier this year, but I think they’re in now assuming they win out.
Notre Dame can’t jump them. The ACC and PAC are out. The Big 12 doesn’t haven’t a dominant team that is guaranteed to jump them.
OT, but what kind of chaos happens if Michigan beats Ohio State and then goes on to lose to Wisconsin?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:40 AM ^
I mean I suppose that's possible, but Cinci would be an underdog on a neutral field to about half the top 25 + a team like unranked(but will now be ranked) Clemson as well. I have watched their last 5 games and they really are not that impressive against weak competition. Maybe college football just sucks this year haha I also have admittedly only watched segments of the playoff games the past 5 years so I maybe I shouldn't care if they get in or not.
I will definitely be rooting for as much chaos as possible if OSU beats M next saturday.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:52 AM ^
If that were to happen, it might bolster talk of expanding to 8 teams for the future. That would be a positive consequence of Cincy getting demolished in the playoff.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
Saying they'll lose the same way a P5 conference champ did isn't exactly an indictment against a G5 team getting in. And I see no reason the champs from the ACC, B12, or Pac12 deserve automatic consideration over anyone. Especially when said champs aren't undefeated.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:16 AM ^
This week and last week is the exact reason that Cincinnati, regardless of their record, should not be in the CFP. Who has Cincinnati played?
Notre Dame! Yes, that is a very good win for the Bearcats in South Bend but what is the next good win? Indiana (2-9)? Temple (3-8)? UCF (7-4)? SMU (8-3 but 4th in their conference standings)?
MSU played Ohio State. Oklahoma lost to Baylor (9-2). I could go on. The other ranked teams are playing other ranked teams. Cincinnati has played one ranked team and the played a schedule which most of the top 15 if they played would have a similar record. You can only play who is on your schedule but if all you have his cream puffs, you shouldn't jump other teams because they actually have to play ranked teams.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:43 AM ^
I don't think Cincinnati has earned it either. If they were in a tough conference they would probably already have their 2nd loss which would have put them out of the discussion. What if they had to play Wisconsin, Ohio St, Michigan St, Michigan, and Purdue? Or Georgia, Ole Miss, Alabama, and Texas A&M? Or Oklahoma, Baylor, Oklahoma St?
My sense of fairness is bothered by teams like Cincinnati being ranked so high.
November 21st, 2021 at 5:47 AM ^
Cincinnati will NEVER earn it in the eyes of folk like you.
Considering that for weeks you predicted SMU would "expose" Cincinnati, you should be giving them credit for taking SMU to the woodshed (once leading 48-0). But nope. The SMU game will simply not be acknowledged, you will stuff it down the memory hole, and you will move the goalposts for UC once again.
November 21st, 2021 at 6:09 AM ^
But SMU isnt a too tier team either.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:46 AM ^
If SMU is the second best team they played what does it tell you. I am not sure Cincinnati would beat ND if they played them now. Earlier in the year is a different story every year. If it is a 8-team playoff I can see them being in. Not with 4 team playoff.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
Oh, so you're not sure Cincinnati would beat ND again. But couldn't that same argument be made as regards Michigan's win over Wisconsin?
Both wins were on the same date (October 2), "early in the season", on the road against a team that some of those fancy analytics has higher rated. Both wins were by multiple scores.
But NOBODY here on this board (or in the public in general) discredits U-M's win over Wisconsin by saying "eh, they couldn't do it again, Wisconsin isn't the same team now they were then", but damn near everybody does it for UC's win over Notre Dame!
Seriously, it's an absurd double standard and an anti-non-P5 argument being made by P5 elitists.
Cincinnati convincingly beat Notre Dame on the road and Michigan convincingly beat Wisconsin on the same road, both victories on the same date. The games happened and the results are what they are. That should be it.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:17 AM ^
No the Bearcats will NEVER earn it because they don't play ANYBODY.
Put them in the BIG East, record?
OSU, PSU, UM, MSU
Looks like 1 win.
Stop it.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:35 AM ^
Okay, then why even have G5 teams in the same division as P5 teams? G5 teams are always going to have very few ranked teams, but yet once and a while when a very good team like Cincinnati has a magical year and even beats ND on ND's home field there will be people who say they don't deserve it.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
Put their schedule up against any other team in contention for the 4th spot and tell us with a straight face that cinci deserves it. Also ask yourself whether you’d put money on them to win against any other team in contention.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:26 PM ^
They play who's on their schedule because theyre in a conference with similar sized smaller schools...again why have them in the same division if they supposedly dont deserve a shot? Did anyone see Boise State beating Oklahoma in 2006? Or Utah beating Alabama in 2008?
November 21st, 2021 at 8:33 AM ^
I didn't say SMU would "expose" Cincinnati.
Cincinnati has had a weak schedule. They don't deserve the playoffs. But they will very likely be in it.
And so what. There's far more important things going on in life. A guy a half block away was killed last night while sitting in his car. some kid with a automatic gun shot him like 12 times, for nothing.
So Cincinnati gets in the playoffs. Good for them.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
Have fun playing your "word games" as regards "expose."
It is what it is. You spent dozens of posts denigrating the Bearcats on this board for weeks, always pointing to the SMU game as the one UC would finally lose.
Your prediction was epically wrong. Kids getting shot doesn't change that --- it's absolutely fair to call you out for your epically wrong prediction. Stop "hiding behind an argument of well what about kids getting shot?" and own your incorrectness as regards the Bearcats.
November 21st, 2021 at 11:24 AM ^
Your team, PSU, would beat the Bearcats by 2 scores, even with a broken Clifford.
Cinci is a good team with good skill position players, and a very good QB. They do not have the size on either line to not get absolutely run over by a solid B1G team. That QB would be on his back half the game.
If they played Notre Dame right now, ND would be favored by 2 scores. They caught them at the right time.
I like the Cinci story and don't actually mind if they get into the playoff, but just like Iowa and MSU didn't pass the eye test, Cinci doesn't either. They would get mauled by any motivated upper tier B1G or SEC team 8 out of 10 times.
Do you honestly believe Cinci makes it out of the B1G East with just 1 or 2 losses if in that division this year?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:23 AM ^
Everyone isn't realizing or bringing up that Cincy gets to (finally) go play Houston in the AAC championship game. Houston is a quality team.
Man maybe it's because I'm so bored with the usual suspects (not maybe, of course I am) but it's 2021 and we're still pretending teams that aren't one of 10-12 schools/names can legitimately be good.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
Neither of those two teams would survive in a Power 5 conference.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:12 AM ^
I could see Cincinnati winning the Big 12 had they played in it this season... or is that no longer a "power" conference?
November 21st, 2021 at 1:37 AM ^
The problem is Oklahoma St might be better than both Notre Dame and Cincinnati. But they probably won't be leap frogged over them no matter if they win out. Cincinnati is going to have to lose. They still have Houston on December 4. And East Car next week.
There's always been 1 team in the Top 4 that doesn't belong in since the CFP started. TCU really got the bad end of things in 2014. I don't think Cincinnati should be in the CFP. But they probably will be. Worse things have happened in the world. I will continue to be happy anyway.
November 21st, 2021 at 1:59 AM ^
How absolutely great would it be if the CFP did not include Alabama, Clemson, or OSU?
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Notre Dame
4. Cincy or Ok State.
Championship: Georgia vs Michigan
November 21st, 2021 at 6:42 AM ^
November 21st, 2021 at 7:47 AM ^
I agree, except ND isn’t making it. The possibility would be:
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Cincinnati
4. Oklahoma State
Considering the games left, thats the only realistic possibility for a shake up. I wouldn’t mind that at all. I’d like our chances.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:29 AM ^
Oklahoma Statw would have to beat Oklahoma 2 weeks in a row. Not going to happen.
georgia, OSU, Cinci, ND will be the playoff
November 21st, 2021 at 9:15 AM ^
If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this weekend, they most likely play Baylor in the Big 12 CG, unless Baylor loses to TT
November 21st, 2021 at 2:01 AM ^
Yes Alabama has far more talent than any other team in college football. No a two-loss Alabama team does not deserve to be in the championship any more than any one loss team. If anything they should be punished for losing with so much talent. If we beat OSU they don’t deserve to be in it. If we beat OSU and then lose to Wisconsin we don’t deserve to be in it either. Two losses. GTFO with that business.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:14 AM ^
Alabama lost probably the best OC and QB they've had since Nick Saban has been coaching there. That's a huge hit to overcome. They started off the season with real problems. But are playing better. I'm not so sure a 2 loss Alabama shouldn't be in. They would probably dominate Cincinnati. And the Ohio St defense wouldn't stop their offense. But a 2 loss team won't get in.
But it's not really that important. The 4 team playoff was made to make sure the 2 best teams get in. I hope that happens this year. I don't know if it has always happened.
November 21st, 2021 at 8:04 AM ^
Clemson is playing much better the last couple of weeks. Should they be in?
Every game you play in football is a National Championship playoff game. The whole CFP thing is to prevent a 1997 Michigan/Nebraska situation where the two best teams don't play each other. Or the years where PSU went undefeated and didn't win the Championship. The two best teams are the ones who won all of their games AND didn't play Akron or Troy State for six games. A one loss team winning the National Championship shouldn't happen most seasons.
I was giving a quick look at Alabama and Georgia's schedules and who other than Ole Miss and Texas A&M have either of them played that are any good? They supposedly have the hardest schedules, but Miami, Florida, Clemson, etc. are all awful this year. Nebraska would be in National Championship talks if they played Georgia's schedule.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:31 AM ^
If a two loss Alabama gets it, it would be a fucking crime. There would likely be four to five other teams more deserving based on resume.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:04 AM ^
There is no scenario where UM beats OSU and gets into the playoff.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:07 AM ^
Actually, there is.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:16 AM ^
Thanks for that shot of optimism.
November 21st, 2021 at 2:32 AM ^
There is, quite clearly, a scenario where Michigan beats OSU and makes the CFP. You can dispute that scenario's likelihood but not its existence.
November 21st, 2021 at 7:48 AM ^
Quit drinking and go to bed.
November 21st, 2021 at 9:43 AM ^
That has to be a typo. There is no scenario where UM beats OSU, wins the B1G championship, & doesn’t get in.
November 21st, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
you're either a troll or an idiot, probably both