Do 2018/2019 games cloud our memory of how this game has been largely competitive many years?
I've been digesting as much info about this game all week, but even though we won last year I still see some of the fan base that's hoping for a win but bracing to get easily handled by Ohio State this weekend. It's a minority but its there. And thinking back on recent games I wonder if 2018 and 2019 damaged UM fans psyche regarding our competitiveness in the rivalry.
2021 - Won
2017 - Had a 14-0 lead and were down by 4 until less than 2 minutes left in the game
2016 - Bad spot costs win
2015 - Legitimate spanking
2014 - Within 1 score until 5 mins left in the 4th
2013 - Lost due to a failed 2 point conversion
2012 - Lost by 5
2011 - Won
From my own perspective, it felt like most of 2012-2017 was full of competitive games that OSU pulled out late. We were competitive and probably should have won 1-2 of them. I thought we had a legitimate chance to win most years even though most years we were the obvious underdog. Then Don Brown's defense got torched in back-to-back years and suddenly the narrative was how far apart the 2 programs were, and how OSU obsesses over The Game 365 days a year, and Day is going to hang 100 on Michigan, etc. From my own perspective, those 2 games psychologically messed me up. I started getting very defeatist to the point where I turned on last year's game with no expectations. The win was extremely cathartic and snapped me back into reality. And that reality is that Michigan can beat Ohio State and I think this year's team has an excellent chance to win on Saturday.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:03 PM ^
I feel like the 1 win in 16 years did more than those scores.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:15 PM ^
But the narrative wasn’t “we’re good but snakebit” it was “OSU is unstoppably better”. Which hasn’t really been true much.
November 24th, 2022 at 7:29 PM ^
Really? I know that OSU dominated the series for 20 years....but Michigan had a real chance to win several of those years ('05, '13, '16.....). I typically thought that Michigan could compete but then 2018 and 2019 gave me PTSD. It's been hard go recover....but 2021 restored much of my confidence in Michigan as a program.
November 24th, 2022 at 8:06 PM ^
I think about this fact all the time. We have lost this game often since 2000, but more often than not it has been more competitive than it should have been on paper.
November 25th, 2022 at 1:27 AM ^
I used to say the same thing about John Cooper's 2-10-1 record against Michigan. It could have easily been 9-4-0.
Ohio State could have easily won in '88, '90, '92, '95, '96, '97, and '99. They were within striking distance late in all of those games.
Sometimes a streak of wins looks more dominant than it is. This applies to us as well as them.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
I've been watching this game since I was a kid, listening to my cousins and grandparents talk it up. That takes us back to the 60s. They pantsed us once, IIRC. But the rest of the time, either it was a tight contest or we whipped 'em.
Don't let anybody tell you different.
November 24th, 2022 at 7:34 PM ^
There is an alternate universe where a certain former UM player and assistant coach who may have been a little promiscuous doesn’t sleep with a fellow coaches wife and Lloyd turns the program over to him in 2005 and this would all have been a bad dream.
of course, one could also say that the past 20 years would be a useful education in humility and appreciating the good times even more but that certainly is also an alternative universe given the neurotic game threads.
November 24th, 2022 at 9:36 PM ^
Wait, what? Who was that?
I must have missed the 2005 soap opera drama.
November 24th, 2022 at 10:26 PM ^
He's talking about Les Miles having an affair with Gary Moeller's wife back in the early 1990's. That has been the rumor as to why Miles was never hired as HC at Michigan. Carr wouldn't allow it.
November 25th, 2022 at 8:16 PM ^
Is this just a rumor or was it ever confirmed?
November 24th, 2022 at 10:47 PM ^
I missed the alternative universe where Les Miles is a homerun hire.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
There is also the alternate universe where Gary Moeller doesn't lose it at the restaurant and continues coaching Michigan, maybe to a national championship instead of Carr.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:56 AM ^
There is also the alternate universe where Gary Moeller doesn't lose it at the restaurant and continues coaching Michigan, maybe to a national championship instead of Carr.
[insert matrix deja vu gif here if I wasn't limited on mobile]
November 24th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
I honestly haven't seen anything to suggest that the dynamics are much different from last year and fully expect to win. Maybe/probably even to pave them again.
We responded to the "Don Brown specials" by building an entirely new program identity from the coaches, to the recruiting, to the on-field product and strategy.
I don't think we'll be fielding undersized men with a one-trick pony approach any time soon. Those years don't factor in for me at all now.
November 24th, 2022 at 3:08 PM ^
I hope you’re right. What I see different in UM is lack of downfield passing game, and not getting pressure with front 4. But I hope you’re right.
November 24th, 2022 at 3:50 PM ^
And the top back injured. Maybe top two.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^
Yeah not having Hutchinson and Ojabo seems to be the big swing from last year. It wasn't just organic pass rush, it was also matching OSU on elite talent. We had two guys go in the first round on defense last year (and Ojabo would have been a third if he didn't get hurt).
So we don't have the same top-end talent at premium positions as last year, whereas OSU still is loaded with first round picks. We have more guys who will go in rounds like 3-7. That said, Michigan is more balanced last year (DT in particular went from being pretty meh last year to arguably the biggest strength on the team besides Corum). How often can they get OSU into 3rd and long and how often can they pay it off without Ojabo and Hutch? That's what the game will come down to
November 24th, 2022 at 4:30 PM ^
*O. JA. BO!!!!
November 25th, 2022 at 7:33 AM ^
(SMACK)
November 24th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
You mean the downfield passing game that threw twice in the second half last year, including one flea-flicker? I'm pretty sure we're that good still.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:21 PM ^
If Corum and Edwards are at least 75%, game is a coin flip. If not, OSU wins.
It’s in the toilet bowl and we don’t have Hutchjabo. That’s probably worth 10 points for OSU vs last year. Their run game is worse and Michigan is probably a little better on defense outside of the edge position. Call that 6 points for OSU.
Let’s say, optimistically, Michigan 34-31.
November 24th, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
I think the Corum injury concern is overblown. I mean, they put him back in that game, granted for just the one snap which was a little weird, but balance of probability he's fine.
November 24th, 2022 at 10:30 PM ^
I agree. I would be more surprised if Corum was not at least 90% and playing. Harbaugh is playing coy with the media and not tipping anything off on Corum, or Edwards for that matter. Being hush hush could be an advantage but you have to believe Day is preparing as if both are full go.
November 25th, 2022 at 1:03 AM ^
But it's so unlike Harbaugh to withhold injury info to try to get a strategic advantage.
Or does he do that all the time? I can never remember.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:50 AM ^
⬆️ ⬆️ 🎯
November 25th, 2022 at 1:31 AM ^
Corum was giving away turkeys on slippery ice on Sunday. That's not what you do when you have a significant injury.
November 25th, 2022 at 7:16 AM ^
DING 💥 DING!!
November 25th, 2022 at 7:15 AM ^
Like your pick of Michigan. I see 31-26 Michigan. I don’t post here often but very surprised to see how many act like Michigan needs a feeding of the 5000 for Michigan to win. I don’t buy into Corum and Edwards not being at almost 💯 I think both will be ready to go. Corum wouldn’t have been out delivering turkeys, running in some instances, had he been limited. Jim Harbaugh further enhances his legacy tomorrow! F*CK Ohio!
November 24th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
18 and 19=stubborn defensive coordinator Don Brown unwilling to change and got torched.
November 24th, 2022 at 5:06 PM ^
And if the offense didn't drop the ball 4 times and allow a blocked punt there wouldn't be so much pressure on the defense. It was much more than DB losing those games although you are right in that if your inability to defend the crossing route was exposed by Indiana you might adjust for that before playing the next team.
November 24th, 2022 at 9:35 PM ^
I’m not really buying it. OSU had our number that day, and at least 80% of that was on defense. They knew exactly what we were going to do on D and what adjustments we were going to make to some of the crossing routes. We also got gifted a TD when they dropped a kickoff, so in terms of freebies that cancels out the blocked punt.
Now, 2019, I can squint and say maybe we could have made that a game deep into the fourth, where anything could happen. 2018 was just a destruction, OSU could have put up 70 but took a knee at the end. I’m pretty sure they had some second string guys in for some of the late M TD’s as well.
My biggest PTSD OSU moments are more the post season after the losses in 2016, 2018 and 2019. Guys sitting out the bowl games, massive coaching staff turnover as coaching carousel starts turning. For an upper tier but not consistently elite program like Michigan, losing this game and just missing the playoffs is a much bigger setback than it would be to an OSU/Bama/UGA.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:34 PM ^
I think college football hit a stretch where Ohio State and Clemson got lumped in with Alabama (and Georgia recently). Now people assume Ohio State is better than Michigan just because they are Ohio State. Just like people thought Clemson would beat Notre Dame bc they're Clemson. The recruiting rankings definitely factor into it, and rightfully so, but I don't think there's a big gap from OSU to Michigan. The big gap is between Georgia and everyone else right now.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:53 PM ^
Rob, respectfully, Georgia is very good - no question about that. But, Georgia’s D doesn’t appear as strong as last year. Is their D good? Yes, for sure - but, not quite as strong as last year, IMO.
Depending on the teams and day - anything can happen. I like where Michigan is.
Go Blue!
November 24th, 2022 at 4:04 PM ^
I think Georgia deserve to be on their own tier until proven otherwise, because they check all the boxes. Success last year? Check. Elite recruiting? Check. Dominated multiple (currently) top 10 teams this year? Check. I don't think anyone else can say that.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:13 PM ^
Georgia is still a cut above, as judged by their two highest ranked opponents, Oregon and Tennessee, both utter thrashings. Other times they're just a cat playing with its prey, and sometimes the mouse gets away. I can't imagine that OSU, with the way teams like NW have run on them, can stand up to GA.
November 24th, 2022 at 4:58 PM ^
So why do you say Georgia is sometimes a cat playing with its prey, but don't think that the same is possible for OSU sometimes, such as against NW or Maryland? (Just like Michigan against Illinois)
November 24th, 2022 at 5:08 PM ^
Did someone actually claim that Michigan was playing cat and mouse with Illinois? No one rational would make such a claim. (I think Harbaugh was confident all through the 4th quarter but that isn't quite the same.)
November 24th, 2022 at 8:28 PM ^
There might be a point that it was a cat and mouse situation when you consider how many borderline guys were kept on the sideline. We will see who returns, but I've had the idea that losing that game would be fine so long as we win out. Not all losses are the same. It was noted in the UFR our defense looked like it was practicing for this week.
But then again, it might just be a fun conspiracy theory my lizard brain concocted ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
November 24th, 2022 at 11:45 PM ^
I don’t know, it seemed like they really wanted to prove they could win with 4th and 5th stringers against that stout defense, and get them some valuable reps, and not really put anything fancy on film. All of this especially after Corum was cleared to play second half, and never getting Schoony or Morris a go even though they could have come in as they were dressed.
Part of me feels like the whole game plan for Illinois was….”ram it down their throats no matter which back is playing, practice our screen game, make just enough plays, Moody, win”.
November 24th, 2022 at 7:31 PM ^
Because Georgia has whipped some good teams and OSU hasn’t. OSU has been in tight games against the good teams it’s played and also the bad ones. Crushing Oregon and Tennessee? Meanwhile OSU struggled to put away ND and PSU, the only ranked teams you’ve played. Do you not see the difference?
November 24th, 2022 at 3:03 PM ^
I think they got lumped with the best of the S-E-C for one reason.
Here's how Michigan and OSU look the last five years by recruiting class ranking (source: 247):
2018: OSU: 2; UM: 22
2019: OSU: 14; UM: 8
2020: OSU: 5; UM: 10
2021: OSU: 2; UM: 13
2022: OSU: 4; UM: 9
OSU's average player ranking was higher than Michigan's every year, so 2019 is a little deceiving. In other years they're pretty clearly in the top tier (along with Alabama, etc.) and Michigan is clearly in the next tier.
As 2018 (not really significant here, as several key players have moved on the NFL) has shown, recruiting rankings aren't destiny. Still, they've been shown to be positively correlated with future player success.
Coaching and motivation matter, but better players give you a margin. Hopefully we'll have another good outcome Saturday.
November 24th, 2022 at 3:22 PM ^
Recruiting isn’t everything but Ohio St.‘s recruiting has been several levels above anyone except GA and Alabama. That definitely factors into the perception and rightfully so.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:37 PM ^
100%
Had this very same conversation with an OSU fan earlier today who ended up agreeing.
Don “We Don’t Need No Stinkin’ Zone Defense!” Brown called a nice game in 2017, but those two ass kickings in ‘18 and ‘19 were traumatizing.
November 24th, 2022 at 11:49 PM ^
Basically, Don had the classic Urban offense dialed in and JT Barrett wasn’t able to do much of anything against us (2016 and 2017), but once Barrett got hurt and Haskins stepped in, Brown was toast. Should have been let go after 2018.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:39 PM ^
Being decimated by injury to half the starters makes it hard to be overly optimistic for this game.
November 24th, 2022 at 2:46 PM ^
Is anything confirmed? My understanding is that a lot was precautionary.
November 24th, 2022 at 3:11 PM ^
Nothing has been confirmed and there is a lot of gamesmanship going on right now. And yes clearly several of those guys were rested as a precaution. I think Harbaugh took a calculated gamble. If Michigan lost to Illinois they’d still be in a position to make the Big Ten title game and CFP. Not saying he was throwing the game or didn’t care if we won, he just calculated it was more valuable to have them closer to 100% against OSU than to risk reinjury by playing them against Illinois.
November 24th, 2022 at 8:31 PM ^
Yes yes agreed
November 24th, 2022 at 11:53 PM ^
This 100%….Harbaugh looked happier after that win than probably any I’ve seen (minus OSU last year)…enough so where people were questioning why he was so stoked that he just barely beat an okay/decent Illinois team. And then the twitter video of them singing the victors, it’s like everyone was in on the “just barely do enough” game plan.