Dane Brugler releases first mock draft / J.J. at #22
In my opinion Dane Brugler is one of the best draft analyst out there, and he is especially good early on in the draft process at identifying the players that will eventually be first round picks. After ranking J.J. #16 in his latest rankings early this month, his just mocked him going #22 to Seattle. This is his write up for McCarthy:
"McCarthy is a polarizing prospect. He has all the tools, and NFL coaches will love the intangibles, but evaluators want to see him put the offense on his back and take over games. It’s not that he can’t, it’s that he hasn’t really needed to given Michigan’s play style and schedule.
General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll see Seattle as a win-now team, but at some point, they will invest in a young quarterback to develop."
It is also very notable that Brugler now has McCarthy as the #4 QB off the board with Jayden Daniels being mocked as a top 10 pick (in addition to Caleb Williams and Drake Maye). I am not getting my hopes up that J.J. will pass up the chance to be a first round pick this year, but I think there is absolutely an argument to be made to come back for another year if he is going to be the #4 QB in this class and a late first round pick. As it stands right now, there is not a prospect on the same level as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2025 class. J.J. could very well be the first QB drafted in 2025.
https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-wi…
November 29th, 2023 at 1:47 PM ^
Hopefully. I think we can tell by whether UM pursues an elite QB or not in the portal.
I am certain JJ would inform the coaches ahead of time so they can plan accordingly. He is so devoted to the team that I don’t see him waiting until the last minute to inform the staff.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
The argument for JJ to come back is that it will improve my fandom experience.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
This is the correct answer.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
JJ would likely be a top 5 pick. Top 2 QB in 2025 if he returns for his SR. season.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
I just listened to the bucknuts podcast in a thread below and those geniuses just said JJ is not a 1st Rd QB.
The kid has that "It" factor all day long. It has been a pleasure to watch this JJ handle his business and lead this team.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
So that means he is a 1st rounder- which he is.
November 29th, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
It's because all they ever look at is stats. They thought Fields was a first rounder and Haskins, etc.
Semi-interesting aside: did you know JT Barrett is a coach for the Lions?
November 29th, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
I predict New England takes him.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
I would predict Minnesota.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
I think being able to be drafted mid late first round, still getting first round money, but being able to play for a better team is worth it. Think of him on the Falcons or Patriots. The Saints would be great. He'll, the has actually
November 29th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
JJ's done a tremendous amount for Michigan. I'd love to see him stay another season - but, certainly can't fault him for any decision he makes regarding his future.
This being said - it does seem his draft status might improve after one more successful season in Ann Arbor. He'd certainly be a pre-season candidate for the Heisman, and - the offense might get to a 55/45 run pass ratio. The ratio, thus far this season, is about 62/38.
For context - this ratio is nearly identical to the 2022 season, and just off of the 59/41 ratio in '21.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:40 PM ^
I find the points made so far about the value of a QB being drafted low in the first round and given time to learn/develop pretty compelling. I haven't been able to find estimates of lifetime earnings based on NFL draft position, but if JJ's best scenario for long-term NFL success is being a late 1st round draft choice, he really should leave this year.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:44 PM ^
Rankings at this point mean zip. JJ is a second rounder at this point. More to a deep draft of talent than anything else.
I could see the Lions drafting him in the 20’s. Goff ain’t it. Hooker is a backup.
JJ behind that line with that running game, WRs, and LaPorta…🤩
That said, I think he runs it back for one more year. By all accounts he loves Michigan and is probably making over six figures in NIL.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:52 PM ^
I’ve resigned myself to believing JJ will be gone next year and I’ll be happy for him whatever he decides. Seattle seems like an ideal destination for him, though we all know he’s the kind of player that could certainly rise through the rankings after the interview and workout process.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
Tee shirt most likely to sell out the quickest next season:
Orji in the Endzone
November 29th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
JJ will kill it in interviews and some team will jump at him. QBs also always go ahead of their perceived talent due to scarcity of talent and importance of position. He is exactly the type of guy to move up 8-10 spots at the combine. He made 3 NFL throws there v OSU. The higher he is drafted the better for the program to point at and say hey despite our offense not being Oregon LSU etc we get QBs into the league at a high level.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
I do not get why people assume Daniels is a sure-fire top-3 QB. I think he's talented but that offense, especially with two first-round WRs, makes his job easier than it will be on a worse team. I'm not saying you take McCarthy in the first 10 picks but he's a highly accurate passer in an offense with (comparatively) limited talent at the WR position playing in an NFL-style offense.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
This is why I would stay.
The Team, the Team, the Team.
"We want the Big Ten championship and we're gonna win it as a Team. They can throw out all those great backs, and great quarterbacks, and great defensive players, throughout the country and inside this conference, but there's gonna be one Team that's gonna play solely as a Team. No man is more important than The Team. No coach is more important than The Team. The Team, The Team, The Team, and if we think that way, all of us, everything that you do, you take into consideration what effect does it have on my Team? Because you can go into professional football, you can go anywhere you want to play after you leave here. You will never play for a Team again. You'll play for a contract. You'll play for this. You'll play for that. You'll play for everything except the team, and think what a great thing it is to be a part of something which is, The Team. We're gonna win it. We're gonna win the championship again because we're gonna play as team, better than anybody else in this conference, we're gonna play together as a team. We're gonna believe in each other, we're not gonna criticize each other, we're not gonna talk about each other, we're gonna encourage each other. And when we play as a team, when the ole season is over, you and I know, it's gonna be Michigan again, Michigan."
Bo
November 29th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
Your mouth to God's ears, but realistically someone will put up huge numbers next year and will cause the dopes who draft to be fascinated. JJ's unlikely to put up eye-popping numbers so if he feels like he will get first round money, I expect him to go.