Covid-19: bad news on the science front
Unfortunately the last few days have been pretty brutal for scientists trying to develop covid-19 treatments. Note that all of these studies are not yet peer reviewed nor fully clinic trials (good science can't work that fast). However their lack of statistically significant results (with moderate sample sizes) suggest that the potential effect size of the drug is likely minor which is terrible news.
hydroxychloroquine -
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2
"no evidence that use of hydroxychloroquine, either with or without azithromycin, reduced the risk of mechanical ventilation in patients hospitalized with Covid-19"
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.10.20060699v1.full.pdf
"No evidence of clinical efficacy of hydroxychloroquine in patients hospitalised for COVID-19 infection and requiring oxygen"
remdesivir -
https://twitter.com/GileadSciences/status/1253404143714066432/photo/1
A study summary accidentally posted by WHO suggests that remdesivir had no beneficial affect. The company claims the results were inconclusive. Either way it is bad news, as a highly effective drug would have a large effect and likely be detected in a trial of this size.
These studies are all preliminary, and future studies could suggest that either of these treatments are more effective than these studies suggest. Additionally the drugs may be more successful when used in different situations. However the news over the last few days suggests that no highly effective cure-all is going to be ready any time soon.
Lastly, there is no way to say this without sounding political, but government scientists are reporting pressure to investigate drugs for political -- rather than scientific --- reasons. Please trust your trained professionals during these times. It is a bad idea to inject yourself with disinfectants.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:25 PM ^
All This is true. And basketball can't restart and baseball, the most naturally socially distant sport of all cant get started
And people still think there will be football this fall. That's hillarious.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:31 PM ^
South Korea has already started up their baseball season. I predict the MLB will follow suit in the next 2 months.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:43 PM ^
Oh South Korea. The country testing literally every human at every opportunity everywhere? The country where you can get tested at McDonalds, a gas station or even at the corner grocery store? That South Korea?
Sounds just like us. I'm sure MLB baseball will be back soon too given how closely we're following their testing protocal; you're absolutely right.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:49 PM ^
Are you implying that South Korea, where they are scanning people's temperatures as they walk into stores, have apps to trace people with the virus and the contacts they make, have tests for any and all citizens, and have give tickets, fines and even jail time to those endangering others is doing a better job of containing Covid 19 then 'MERICA!... Nonsense.
We are the best and everybody knows it...all the best people saying it.
Can confirm. A few places have given me temperature checks upon entering. Shake Shack is doing it actually. And yes, how South Korea is slowly opening doesn't actually give me hope for the US. It never got nearly as bad here, it happened earlier, and the government response has been great compared to let's say...less than ideal. My great fear with the US isn't just that the response has been slow. It's been outright bad, and it doesn't seem to be getting better.
In what way? We've been locked down for almost 6 weeks. How could we have done more than limit peoples' movement? Yes we could have tested more but we locked down travel and states early.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:36 PM ^
So true. And this latest drug is real game-changer! And, hey, if that fails, we can just inject patients with detergent! The leadership of this country is so reassuring.
You have a great point, but states are already starting to open things up to test the waters per the government standards and procedures that were set in place. One example is hair salons and playgrounds are opening up in my home state I believe this weekend. From what I have read, sporting events and activities are a part of those rollouts in stage 2 or 3 although I am not sure to what capacity.
It could all go south, which I would concur then that in all likelihood no sporting events will happen the rest of the year, but there are some positive trends going on right now. Just because the MLB might resume doesn't mean they won't come up with a radical approach and contingencies to their season that would allow them to meet CDC guidelines, one being location of venues and also eliminating fans and other non-essential personnel.
While college football could potentially resume in the 2020-21 calendar year, they could easily postpone the season until 2021 and also likely will keep fans from attending.
If you can allow for some businesses and venues to resume with contingencies in the next couple of months, sporting events will eventually happen IF everything goes well.
I can tell you think it won't, but honestly there is no way of truly knowing yet. The virus sucks and is very brutal on a small percentage of people, but the world will open up more before a vaccine is in place. Already beginning the process. We will find out the results soon.
True, there is really no way of knowing until we try various methods. Too bad that if you (state of Georgia) are wrong, it means tens of thousands of people will die. I am just happy I don't live in a state where they are ready to gamble with people's lives.
I mean, this is totally political - there is no way around it - but I'll keep it as neutral as I can. For two weeks Trump was tweeting "Liberate <blue state here>" (following Laura Ingraham's lead) and supporting protests, while keeping gov't restrictions and lockdowns in place. Yet when Kemp (R) tries to open up Georgia, Trump complained about him publicly for doing so.
I'm not really sure what direction states have for anything. I can't blame Kemp for trying to open up because he's doing what some segments of his constituency wants, and following the President's lead and desire. Yet, I cannot absolve him of pure idiocy because he's not following the recommendations from disease experts, nor has he convened any conference to best decide how to move forward with a consensus of opinion (that we know of).
I truly hope, for the people of Georgia, that his haphazard opening plan works out for the best. That would also be really good news for the national economy.
(Disclaimer, FWIW: I'm no fan of Kemp. He ran for Govenor while actively performing his duties as Sect of State in overseeing an election in which he was on the ballot, and was actively engaged in determining locations of voting places. If ever there is a conflict of interests, that's the one...)
As someone who does live in GA here are some facts without bias.
Governor Kemp listened to the advice of Dr. Kathleen Toomey, an epidemiologist and board-certified family practitioner from the Georgia Department of Public Health. Governor Kemp shut down the state when she advised him to do so and is following her recommendation on how to reopen the state.
The trend line for new infection cases is going down. Definitely open to debate if the line is going down enough to start reopening the state. For the data check out, Georgia Department of Public Health COVID-19 Daily Status Report
In confirmed ( including presumptive positive) case numbers Georgia doesn't have a single county in the top 50 of the country (as reported by Johns Hopkins).
Hopefully this provides some perspective and facts to draw conclusions from.
Not sure why this was down voted...
In confirmed ( including presumptive positive) case numbers Georgia doesn't have a single county in the top 50 of the country (as reported by Johns Hopkins).
The problem is, they are not testing much. I've been critical of Michigan not testing enough. Georgia's population is slightly larger than Michigan's and they've tested even less than we have. Both per capita and in absolute numbers, their testing regime is very low.
I don't see how you reopen without having good data that the virus is at low levels. Georgia's had the 11th-most COVID deaths in the country, and it's open to question whether they are letting others slip through the cracks.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:39 AM ^
Because you don't seem to understand that "re-opening" does not mean "society as it was April 2019" in 2020.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:04 AM ^
It doesn't matter what Brian Kemp does. The fact is that Trump decides who to love and to hate, and (much to our detriment) which states emerge from this more supported depends entirely on his mood.
Today, he hates Brian Kemp, and Georgia will suffer as a result.
he just needs a perceived enemy. Telling the MAGA protestors to complain and protest a democratic governor is an easy target and gets news but won't make a damn difference and Trump doesn't have to deal with any consequences.
All Trump wants to do is avoid blame and responsibility for anything. Kemp letting tattoo parlors and bowling alleys is a fucking joke and can have real negative consequences and perhaps Trump is actually smart enough to realize that give the COVID cases increase dramatically because this was an ill-conceived plan that was inconsistent with his own task force guidelines, that he'll get blamed for supporting it. Of course, if Georgia comes out unscathed, you can be sure he'll take credit for it.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^
No sorry, this post doesn't ooze doom and gloom for the sad bastards here. Please refrain from any positive COVID news. 80% of posters here like to wallow is self-pity and depressing info - so this post doesn't fit that narrative.
Just because they're doing it doesn't make it a good idea. These rash decisions are going to keep this going even longer.
The goal isn't to stop it, that's impossible right now. The goal is to lower the curve and elongate greatly the onset of cases.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
I believe this was the initial solution, not a solution forever as it would not allow for opening things back up. If you open things up you are not going to flatten the curve it's going to go right back up. We need mass testing to see who is positive, who has antibodies, who has not been exposed to create a triage of people able to open things back up. We need more of a lot of things which need gov funding and direction which is not set up (place blame at who you like). Opening up blindly isn't going to flatten the curve. It's only going to repeat the cycle of lockdown and hurt the economy.
Personally I disagree with opening up states until the downward trend has continued a bit longer and testing is more widely available, but regardless of that... Hair salons are really the first thing we're going to open up??? What in the actual fuck. That may be the most damning part of the entire response to this virus. We're just so sick of looking at our wives' roots and so afraid of remembering that aging doesn't stop at 40 that we simply must open businesses back up? How about hardware stores? Paint stores? Let laborers go back to work? Maybe factories in a limited capacity? No first things first lets be sure we look our best when we step back into the world.
Can't remember which state but another one said one of the first things to open would be movie theaters! Where some 16 year old kid who's getting high on his break is the one responsible for cleaning the armrests. But it's just not the same experience watching new releases on my home screen on demand. I need the full experience. Unbelievable.
April 24th, 2020 at 10:24 AM ^
All those things can certainly open IMO. Hardware stores, factories, yes. But there's nothing wrong with hair salons and barbershops too. It's not about whether the wife looks good, it's about employing the barbers. This disease isn't leprosy. The little three-chair barber shop I go to could easily take appointments and have six people in the shop, with masks on if that helped. Large places like Great Clips can space out the chairs. It's not about whether the particular service is super-essential - it's about whether it can be done safely. Haircutting is not going to turn into a hotspot of doom.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
When it's only the salons opening, which employ less people and have fewer secondary suppliers that would also ramp up as a result, it's about looking good. I don't care if they open. But why are they first on the list if we're doing a tiered approach?
April 24th, 2020 at 10:27 AM ^
Plus, bedbugs in the theaters. Not good...
April 24th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
So while probably not practical on the college front, I’m wondering why professional leagues don’t try something involving just relocating players/teams and essential personnel to SK (or other country that seems to have things well controlled) and play the games for live US TV in the middle of the night or early morning SK time. Obviously, some enormous logistical hurdles and it couldn’t be done right now, but a few months from now, that may be a practical option and a better alternative for their bottom line than just complete cancelation.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
It probably will not happen (because the citizens will not want virus coming back into the country via visitors), but Korea does love baseball and would be thrilled to see MLB players on their land. They have enough baseball stadiums to make it happen...
April 24th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
I don't think it necessarily has to be off US soil. Hey, maybe that's what we can use Las Vegas for (because they, like amusement parks and large sports/concert venues, will be last to open through all this).
1% test rate.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:48 PM ^
There will be football, and it’s not dependent on any of these trials listed in the OP.
April 23rd, 2020 at 11:52 PM ^
The arguments for football this fall are basically "I want football this fall therefore there will be football this fall.
Fuck science and fuck that stupid pandemic. I want football.
So there will be football. Because I want it."
April 24th, 2020 at 12:03 AM ^
I think you will be eating crow in 6 months.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:08 AM ^
4 months and that's assuming zero practice time. If you want any practice it's 3 months.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:17 AM ^
I think the wildest position is having confidence in any particular timing of a college football return.
I hope they're a safer snack than bats.
Well played, Rob, well played. This comment has been seriously under-upvoted!
yes, this thread was racism-free until an original bat-eating comment
April 24th, 2020 at 10:10 AM ^
Then I've got good news for you, the thread still is racism free. In china and india it's not uncommon eating bats, or bugs, dogs, cats, or a large variety of foods that aren't traditional in the US, but are traditional there. Light hearted humor and espousing hatred are two completely different things, and often are opposite things. Simply pointing a finger and saying "racist" doesn't make it so, my friend.
April 24th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
The chinaman ate a bat, dude. It's not racist to call a thing a thing. It originated from China. Ergo, it's a Chinese virus. Deal with it.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:17 AM ^
They're starting to turn the focus to a spring season. And holding out hope for a season in 2020.
April 24th, 2020 at 12:33 AM ^
No, I think the actual argument is: "If we don't play football, our entire athletic department will collapse financially. Therefore, we must find a way to play football." The former is probably true. Whether the latter is also true remains to be seen.
No, the argument for football this fall is that having something approaching a normal life is worth the risk.
Risk is a part of life. Sadly, so is death.
Contrary to this post's headline, there was actually wonderful news on the science front today, on two axes. The first was a study that concluded that COVID was almost certainly present in the US as early as February; the second was a study of approximately 3000 people in New York that reported a 10% positive rate on an antibody test.
Both of these studies suggest that we have vastly overestimated the danger of this disease. The first suggests that we're much further along in the viral spread than people have thought (and also that the spread is less aggressive than many thought), and the second suggests that the morbidity rate is somewhere around 0.6%. These are the same arguments I've been making for weeks, so this isn't new, but it may get a fresh look as now even the most ardent peddlers of doom-and-gloom are starting to see how silly they look when somebody asks "why are all of these temporary hospitals empty?"
This isn't a science question; it's a policy question: what are the goals of society, and how do we balance them? We talk about life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness. Right now, we are extremely skewed in favor of the first. A more balanced approach would quarantine the sick instead of quarantining the healthy; isolate those at extreme risk instead of isolating everyone; let people make their own decisions about what's essential and what isn't; and, so on.
The simple fact of the matter is that you can't stop a virus. The point behind "flattening the curve" was supposed to be to keep the hospital system from being overrun. It wasn't. It doesn't seem like it was actually ever in much danger except in NYC, which has the highest population density in the country, and maybe in the Detroit area (but, again, see "empty temporary hospitals."). Will infections spike when restrictions are lifted? Probably. But will that mean more infections? Or just that people get infected sooner? Unless we're willing to stay on this level of economy- and community-destroying lockdown for months or years, it's the latter. Note that the virus is still spreading despite the unprecedented lockdown measures being taken. If keeping America under house arrest stopped the virus, wouldn't cases have disappeared by now?
FFS, have you not learned anything over the past month? NYC got dangerously close to getting its healthcare overrun. And that was with just 10% of the people infected. Opening things up means you are putting 90% in play and NYC could barely handle 10%. Is this really that complicated?
Things can start to open up, WHEN the testing is widely available and tracing teams will be able to keep track of all who are infected. Then thing can start becoming normal like in Korea.
Why are people not more upset about the fact that testing and tracing is not anywhere close to being ready instead of being upset about stay home orders? That is where we need to focus our anger towards. Because nothing is going to happen until that happens first.
New York City has the highest population density in the country. It's a model for Manila (which, incidentally, has about one third the hospital beds, per capita, as NYC). It's not a model for Grand Forks, North Dakota.
Also, did it really get "dangerously close" to being overrun? Why is the Javits mostly empty? Fear sells. Calm, rational examination doesn't.
And, this 10% number is extremely good news -- better than I could have hoped for, and I pray that it's true. Because all 10% weren't sick at once, and neither would the 90% be. If it was already at 10%, and started spreading within the community in January, as they're now estimating (and as I've been explaining since the first idiots wanted to "protect America" by closing the border), then we probably got about as bad a jolt as we possibly could have gotten from it. That means it was well into the exponential growth phase before we even started doing anything to combat it, and it's likely not nearly as virulent as was first thought. (Basically, R had to have been much lower than was feared). It also means that a huge percentage of the infected patients were asymptomatic or, at least, had mild enough symptoms that they never even sought treatment.
People aren't angry about testing and tracing not being ready because mass testing is as un-American as these lockdown orders are. "Give me mass testing and a horrific invasion of privacy or give me death!" doesn't have the same ring to it, now does it?
People are starting to realize that the government has, as is its wont, taken a problem, thrown gobs of money at it, and made it worse. That explains the anger.
Hi, New Yorker here. They were burying people in essentially mass graves in a public park because they ran out of space at the morgues.
That was with an aggressive shutdown of pretty much every business in the city outside of grocery stores.
Shut the fuck up because you have no idea what you're talking about.
"Not all local people who die from COVID-19 are automatically buried at this site. For more than 150 years Hart Island has been used as a burial site for deceased people with no next of kin to claim them"
Therefore they are burying people who have no next of kin in a mass grave......not because they ran out of space. Fear mongering 101. Take a truth, change it to fit your narrative and be loud about it.
"Therefore they are burying people who have no next of kin in a mass grave." Astonishing that you just glossed over that part of the statement to get to your position of data-deficient obstinance. In the United States of America, they are burying people in a MASS GRAVE.
Which public park were they using?
I assume you're not talking about Hart Island. While then number of mass burials increased exponentially at Hart Island, it isn't anything new to use that island for that purpose. I'm not being facetious and it's an honest question. Is NY seriously burying people in public parks?
https://www.insider.com/the-mass-graves-part-of-pandemic-new-york-was-prepared-2020-4
April 24th, 2020 at 11:42 AM ^
Ugh so many horrible takes in one post.
I'll just say your comments on New York are incredibly wrong and disrespectful. Just because the Javits Center is not full ( I don''t know if that's true by the way) you conclude it must not be bad. You say this while ignoring the fact that THOUSANDS of people have died in NYC and many hospitals were crammed with covid patients. You're also ignoring the fact that hundreds of nurses, doctors, medical professionals, first responders, cops and firefighters in NYC also came down with it. Not to mention, most of these frontline heroes have been dealing with major shortages of PPE (which of course explains the widespread infections). It's been a borderline nightmare in NYC - the massive and strict lockdown is likely what saved it from getting worse. And it seems like you don't get that either.
You can't compare NYC to any other city in the country, the population density doesn't compare. It compares to other Asian cities where they have to use different mitigation strategies.
More testing isn't being done because of a lack of supplies, this week the president forced two American companies to start producing swabs.
We are testing more people per 1000 persons than other countries that are opening.
The fact that people 55 and younger are so scared of a disease that has a mortality rate of .8% is ridiculous. The media has convinced Americans that we are all going to die from this if you get it when the cdc statistics say that is definitely not the case.
I agree with flattening the curve and making sure hospitals don't become over run but when the media is scaring the crap out of people instead of stressing the statistics they lose my support.
We are testing more people per 1000 persons than other countries that are opening.
No, we are not. Most European countries are testing twice as much as we are per capita, if not more.
By the way, Detroit's lost nearly as much a share of its population to COVID-19 as New York City has, despite a much lower population density.