Could this weekend's results nullify the Outback Bowl prediction for Michigan (back to San Diego)?
Earlier this week, it was reported that Michigan was near a lock to the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Florida. This rested on the following assumptions:
- Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State are slotted for NY6 Bowls, but none of them in the Orange Bowl.
- The Citrus Bowl would select 9-3 MSU over 9-3 Northwestern, despite the head-to-head result, given the Spartan's larger fanbase/TV draw and higher rankings (in CFP, AP and Coaches).
-
Northwestern will not return to the Outback as they have already been during this contract period (Iowa also cannot go to the Outback, for what it's worth).
- EDIT: The Big Ten has to send a minimum of 5 different teams in a 6 year period, with no two in a rows. However, the stated goal is 6 teams in 6 years and the conference will not send a repeat, especially with multiple years left in the period, unless it is forced to or it's a very compelling matchup; Northwestern does not meet either criteria.
- This leaves Michigan as the only option for the Outback.
However, it now appears at least somewhat likely that, given OSU's victory over Wisconsin by a close margin, Alabama will be #4 in the playoffs and OSU will be left out at #5.
This should send the Buckeyes to the Orange Bowl, which contractually pits the ACC against the highest ranked non-playoff team from SEC/B1G/Notre Dame. The Big Ten cannot play in the Citrus Bowl if they play in the Orange Bowl (the ACC takes their Citrus spot).
This makes the Outback Bowl receive highest non-NY6 Big Ten team. You would think that the Outback Bowl/Big Ten Conference (remember, it's a mutual decision between the conference and bowl) would select Michigan State over Michigan, moving UM down in the bowl order, for the following reasons:
-
More money/views with a more efficient leveraging of Michigan's TV Draw.
- Yes, the Outback is on New Year's Day. However, it is broadcast on lowly ESPN2 and has to compete directly with the Citrus Bowl (ABC) and Peach Bowl (ESPN).
- The Holiday Bowl is broadcast nationally on FOX (the Big Ten's preferred network) and only has to compete with the Alamo Bowl (PAC 12 vs. Big 12, on ESPN).
- The combo of MSU Outback/UM Holiday likely yields many more combined views than UM Outback/MSU holiday.
- This is especially relevant with the storylines below.
-
Better storylines.
- Stanford's loss to USC leaves the Cardinal likely headed to the Holiday Bowl. This pits Harbaugh against his former employer. Would be HUGE storylines.
- Dantonio is a South Carolina alum (Smaller storyline but still relevant).
-
Resume/fairness.
- MSU is ranked in all three polls, is 9-3 and has a head to head win over Michigan.
- Michigan is unranked in all three polls, is 8-4 and has a head to head loss against MSU.
- Avoid Spartan outrage (a concern for the Big Ten offices, not the Outback Bowl).
-
Recency/Keeping it Fresh (a supposed goal of the conference)
- Michigan has played in Florida two years in a row and in three of its last four bowl games (2016, 2015, 2012).
- On the other hand, Michigan State has not played in Florida since the 2011 season (Arizona '12, California '13, Texas '14/'15, no bowl '16).
Maybe it's just my selfish mind wanting us West Coast Wolverines to have a closeby game, but I think that the results of the Conference Championship (Stanford loss, close OSU win) make the Outback prediction at least somewhat in doubt.
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:02 AM ^
Michigan's offensive rankings are a product of 4 games with JOK starting, and the first 4 games with a new OL, brand new WRs, and a new offense. They've come a long way way since then, and JOK will not start (pending Peters' health, of course). Give them 15 bowl practices with Peters running the show, and I don't see where USC is going to stop them.
Besides, Don Brown vs the 107th ranked offense? I don't care how influenced the early season was on SC's offense, Don Brown will own them.
This is not a compelling matchup, and I would much rather see a game against Stanford or LSU.
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:06 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:11 AM ^
Agree the Iowa loss combined with the close win last night probably should keep OSU out, and pair them up vs USC seems right,, but they also like to make these Conference championships mean something and Bama should not have Mercer on their schedule before Iron Bowl. I don't know who they will pick.
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:04 AM ^
If the CCG meant something, at least as much as they keep saying it does, why OSU go last year?
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:14 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:57 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:32 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:21 AM ^
For that matter doesnt Wisconsin have just as good of a case for inclusion as Alabama? Beat nobody, didnt win their conference and have only one loss. And Wisky's got one more win.
You dont see anybody arguing for Wisconsin to make it - gee, I wonder why that is.
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:17 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:42 AM ^
Had they in previous years not leap frogged OSU over th conference champ this would be easy.
Big Ten champ - in, SEC champ - in, ACC champ -in, and this year Big 12 champ - in.
But because they chose to do what they did, they have this mess - the above solution would be more palatable politically because if they pick two teams from one conference AND a snub a conference champ again, then we'll just see a faster push to a 8 team playoff.
Michigan and most Big Ten schools will always be a big draw for most bowls simply because of the size of the alumni and football fandom. With the CFP there isn't actually any reason for any sort of ranking or algorithm that picks which teams play each other. The Rose Bowl may have great sentimental and traditional meaning for Wolverine fans but for a lot of the kids and casual fans, it is a trip to Pasadena, LA, Disneyland, etc.
The bowls are purely for fun, for ways of showcasing the teams and schools and for the development office to do some on-site work. The notion of a team going somewhere just because it was higher ranked really has no meaning any more. This is a team that went to Italy and for many members will be going on to some place else next summer (?Australia, South America) so going to someplace just because it is warm is not a huge plum.
The UM should just cut a deal that has good terms for it (minimal mandated tickets, band allocation) and good hotel terms. The organizers of many of these bowls rival the IOC and FIDE as pocket liners and gougers.
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:56 AM ^
The measure of a team is not the record of the teams it plays - Alabama has no control over how their opponents do in other games. The measure of a team is how you do with the opportunities that you have on the field.
OSU hosted Oklahoma in a night game in front of millions of people - they got blasted, probably worse than the final score indicates.
OSU had an opportunity for a big road win in Kinnick. Instead, they went to a lousy Iowa team and got obliterated.
Bama's loss was to a terrific Auburn team, on the road, and wasn't by a blowout. Fact of the matter is, their loss was a better loss than Georgia's loss (even if GA got revenge yesterday).
Bama is one of the four best teams in college football. OSU isn't. That's really all that matters.
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:12 AM ^
As much shit as Bama's record is, they have 1 loss to a top 10 team on the road. However, I don't see any outright flaws in Bama when I watch them play. I see some weaknesses that good teams can use, but no outright flaws.
With OSU, I see at least two outright flaws - 1) Barrett can't throw to save his life; 2) they can't cover a TE/RB for anything. Good teams - the ones that can match OSU's athleticism across the field - will rape those flaws repeatedly. Hence, 31-0 last year vs Clemson.
Wiscy doesn't have athletes across the field. Michigan does, but fuck me for a QB.
December 3rd, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
When we ought to let the rednecks go mano-a-mano. It would be a win-win for the fans of every other program in college football.
And it's not like anyone has any teeth to lose in the fight.
December 3rd, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 10:46 AM ^
I want to play in the Holiday bowl. I would like to mix things up and play the Pac-12