Could this weekend's results nullify the Outback Bowl prediction for Michigan (back to San Diego)?
Earlier this week, it was reported that Michigan was near a lock to the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Florida. This rested on the following assumptions:
- Ohio State, Wisconsin and Penn State are slotted for NY6 Bowls, but none of them in the Orange Bowl.
- The Citrus Bowl would select 9-3 MSU over 9-3 Northwestern, despite the head-to-head result, given the Spartan's larger fanbase/TV draw and higher rankings (in CFP, AP and Coaches).
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Northwestern will not return to the Outback as they have already been during this contract period (Iowa also cannot go to the Outback, for what it's worth).
- EDIT: The Big Ten has to send a minimum of 5 different teams in a 6 year period, with no two in a rows. However, the stated goal is 6 teams in 6 years and the conference will not send a repeat, especially with multiple years left in the period, unless it is forced to or it's a very compelling matchup; Northwestern does not meet either criteria.
- This leaves Michigan as the only option for the Outback.
However, it now appears at least somewhat likely that, given OSU's victory over Wisconsin by a close margin, Alabama will be #4 in the playoffs and OSU will be left out at #5.
This should send the Buckeyes to the Orange Bowl, which contractually pits the ACC against the highest ranked non-playoff team from SEC/B1G/Notre Dame. The Big Ten cannot play in the Citrus Bowl if they play in the Orange Bowl (the ACC takes their Citrus spot).
This makes the Outback Bowl receive highest non-NY6 Big Ten team. You would think that the Outback Bowl/Big Ten Conference (remember, it's a mutual decision between the conference and bowl) would select Michigan State over Michigan, moving UM down in the bowl order, for the following reasons:
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More money/views with a more efficient leveraging of Michigan's TV Draw.
- Yes, the Outback is on New Year's Day. However, it is broadcast on lowly ESPN2 and has to compete directly with the Citrus Bowl (ABC) and Peach Bowl (ESPN).
- The Holiday Bowl is broadcast nationally on FOX (the Big Ten's preferred network) and only has to compete with the Alamo Bowl (PAC 12 vs. Big 12, on ESPN).
- The combo of MSU Outback/UM Holiday likely yields many more combined views than UM Outback/MSU holiday.
- This is especially relevant with the storylines below.
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Better storylines.
- Stanford's loss to USC leaves the Cardinal likely headed to the Holiday Bowl. This pits Harbaugh against his former employer. Would be HUGE storylines.
- Dantonio is a South Carolina alum (Smaller storyline but still relevant).
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Resume/fairness.
- MSU is ranked in all three polls, is 9-3 and has a head to head win over Michigan.
- Michigan is unranked in all three polls, is 8-4 and has a head to head loss against MSU.
- Avoid Spartan outrage (a concern for the Big Ten offices, not the Outback Bowl).
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Recency/Keeping it Fresh (a supposed goal of the conference)
- Michigan has played in Florida two years in a row and in three of its last four bowl games (2016, 2015, 2012).
- On the other hand, Michigan State has not played in Florida since the 2011 season (Arizona '12, California '13, Texas '14/'15, no bowl '16).
Maybe it's just my selfish mind wanting us West Coast Wolverines to have a closeby game, but I think that the results of the Conference Championship (Stanford loss, close OSU win) make the Outback prediction at least somewhat in doubt.
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:50 AM ^
I already put the ratings up on here a few times but basically the Outback Bowl has over 2 million more than the Holiday Bowl.
Also, OSU is getting in and Alabama is probably not.
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:56 AM ^
It's not about the Outback having more than the Holiday.
It's about comparing the following views across two games combined, either:
- Michigan in Holiday, MSU in Outback.
- Michigan in Outback, MSU in Holiday.
#1 certainly gets way more views for the conference (which distributes its bowl money evenly). Michigan draws more than MSU in either game, but the delta is much bigger in the Holiday Bowl against Stanford.
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:59 AM ^
Here's what McMurphy has and I believe he has it right or damn close.
College Football Playoff
Jan. 8
Championship: Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Jan. 1
Rose: Oklahoma (CFB No. 2) vs. Georgia (CFB No. 3)
Sugar: Clemson (CFB No. 1) vs. Ohio State (CFB No. 4)
NY6 Bowls
Jan. 1
Peach: Auburn (at-large) vs. UCF (Group of 5)
Dec. 30
Fiesta: USC (Pac-12 champ) vs. Wisconsin (at-large)
Orange: Miami (ACC) vs. Alabama (B1G/SEC/ND)
Dec. 29
Cotton: Penn State (at-large) vs. Washington (at-large)
Other Bowls
Jan. 1
Citrus: Michigan State (ACC/B1G) vs. LSU (SEC)
Outback: Michigan (B1G) vs. South Carolina (SEC)
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:06 AM ^
McMurphy is not Jesus.
A lot of those picks are dead obvious and the others are tossups. We'll see.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^
Never said that but thanks for being a dick anyway. Just because you don't like him doesn't make him wrong in this case.
Like you said, we'll see. Tomorrow, we'll find out. I wouldn't go getting your tickets for the Holiday Bowl just yet though.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:28 AM ^
You posted a response comment ignoring the entirety of what I said (i.e. not a response) simply to list what McMurphy thinks as if it was the end all be all.
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:42 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^
Does any rational human want to see tOSU vs. Clemson again?
We know how that goes...
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:11 AM ^
Of course not. I don't. I hate OSU. But that is how it's probably going to go.
I wish it was us and it will be soon. But until then, hating these fuckers won't change them playing in big games.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:13 AM ^
I can still hate them, though.
December 3rd, 2017 at 4:23 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:44 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:46 AM ^
Good point. Last year also had Minnesota as the Big Ten representative lol.
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:54 AM ^
Playoff: OSU
NY6: PSU/UW
Citrus: MSU
Outback: UM/NW
Holiday: UM/NW
or
Playoff: Alabama
NY6: PSU/UW
Orange: OSU
Outback: MSU
Holiday: UM/NW
Taxslayer: UM/NW
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:57 AM ^
Yes, although in scenario #1 it's not an option between UM and NW. It's UM Outback, NW Holiday.
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:52 AM ^
Ohio State can not go to the Orange Bowl. Only non-champions of the B1G & SEC may be selected for that bowl.
December 3rd, 2017 at 12:58 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:18 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:00 AM ^
Ohio State and Wisconsin were guilty of the same sin. Both knew they needed to take advantage of a late season marquee game against a flawed team and lay a convincing thorough beating on that flawed team.
That team being Michigan.
Wisconsin had 5 good minutes of offense after our QB went down. Ohio State gave up 6 yards a clip to the running backs of a totally one dimensional team.
No Big Ten rep this year.
You cannot put in a two loss team who lost big in November to an Iowa team who lost ugly at Wisconsin and lost at home to Purdue. Not over an Alabama team which spent all those weaks at number 1 and lost to a very good team on the road in a rivalry game.
Take the committee at it's word with those rankings before this week-ends games. Bama was 5, Ohio State was 8. That was a direct message to Ohio State: This weekend: blow their doors off. Didn't happen.
So if the lack of a Big Ten rep causes a chain reaction pushing Michigan backwards and out of a Florida bowl, it's the Holiday Bowl for Michigan.
If the OP is right on the analysis as laid out, Holiday Bowl time.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:11 AM ^
tOSU didn't do anything to wipe the ugly off the Iowa loss today at all.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:47 AM ^
even play a single team that finished with fewer than three losses.
They played two teams with three losses. One they lost to in a game in which they weren't very competitive. The other was a home win against Cajun Brady Hoke-led LSU.
They played two four loss teams. They were fairly fortunate to beat the one they played on the road and the other was a home win against a Mountain West team that lost at home to UNLV.
Bama has a staggeringly weak resume in terms of quality wins. Their resume is supported only by not having a bad loss and beating really bad teams by a lot.
That Iowa loss is a bad look for OSU, but the committee in previous years has been very consistent in valuing quality wins more than dinging teams for bad losses.
It would be a significant shift in criteria if the committee went with Bama despite the lack of quality wins.
Will be interesting to see which way they go.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:54 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 3:03 AM ^
They made the decision last year in Osu’s favor. Will they stick by the same logic?
December 3rd, 2017 at 3:33 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:14 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 11:56 AM ^
Come on. North Dakota State is better than approximately 50 FBS schools. Obviously Mercer is not NDSU, but Alabama would beat Hawaii by just as much.
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:47 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:08 AM ^
I'm annoyed that the teams commonly projected to be opponents in the bowl range we will end up in are LSU, South Carolina, and Stanford and we will most likely wind up with South Carolina--least appealing, IMO. Sparty has a good shot at getting LSU, who I know we've all been very interested in facing finally.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:18 AM ^
Everyone does understand that the Clemson and OSU ADs are part of this committiee right? Even though they are out of the room when their team is being talked about, they actually hang out with each other. And do you think Clemson wants to face OSU or Alabama in the semi-final? OSU will be in. Alabama will be out.
December 3rd, 2017 at 2:48 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:31 AM ^
the national audience would be better served with Round 3 of Clemson v. Alabama. This is a much more compelling game. I saw ohio live v. us and last night and they simply are not very good compared to Clemson or Alabama (and we know how they compare to Oklahoma).
Fuck Jim Delaney - he's just a pimp.
Go Blue!
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:27 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:48 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 2:19 AM ^
All we need is more injuries. Oh and I would prefer to play somewhere with ambulances and hospitals unlike West Lafayette
Other than that, I couldn’t care less
December 3rd, 2017 at 4:19 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:02 PM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:38 AM ^
so there'll be no stitching. they might have changed that in the intervening years, but if they haven't then this time of year it is pretty thin grass in many places and the groundskeepers paint the dirt.
December 3rd, 2017 at 1:32 AM ^
I am enjoying that Saban and Meyer are stuck in a pissing contest, publically trashing each other's records.
Could not happen to two better assholes.
December 3rd, 2017 at 6:01 AM ^
No doubt it is great theatre to watch and listen to them do their lying salesman schtick. Listening to either of tthem, especially Meyer, is enough to make you lose your last mean.
December 3rd, 2017 at 2:25 AM ^
But bama will get the nod over OSU for #4. Clemson will be hoping for OSU.
Stanford and Michigan match-up will be intriguing but we will have a better chance wining a bowl game against SC.
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:02 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:41 AM ^
I would bet that they never discuss it, but that doesn't keep them from thinking about it.
December 3rd, 2017 at 2:42 AM ^
Don't want to see ohio in the CFP. They definitely aren't a top 4 team. Whatever bowl we end up with, we should win. Personally hope it's in San Diego because I would likely attend.
GO BLUE!!
December 3rd, 2017 at 2:53 AM ^
Penn state beat no one great and lost to a pretty mediocre michigan state. Ohio state didn't really look spectacular against anyone but got whipped by iowa and oklahoma, their only "good wins" were against a wisconsin team everyone thought was overrated and a PSU team who was pretty mediocre. WIsconsin didn't beat anyone good and just lost to a pretty mediocre osu team.
Just a few days ago the whole CFB landscape was saying that wisconsin was overrated and they'd have to beat OSU to prove they weren't. Now all of a sudden beating wisconsin means an OSU is suddenly CFP material? Ridiculous
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:41 AM ^
caveats for night game at nambla valley and all, but we were mediocre. they were a cut above that. and their losses to msu and ohio were both on the road and nail biters.
December 3rd, 2017 at 8:49 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 9:00 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 3:00 AM ^
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:56 AM ^
Alabama would be a double digit favorite over osu and yet we end up with the unimpressive resume of 11-1 Bama vs. the B1G champ 2 loss Ohio St. that got crushed at home by Oklahoma and completely embarrassed by Iowa. I personally cannot justify putting osu in.
The other thing in this that is getting no mention is two loss conf champ USC. While they have that 49-14 loss at ND, their resume isn't that much different than Osu to warrant such a great divide between these two teams in the rankings. The Osu win over MSU is being given far too much credit. MSU is the most overrated 9-3 team in the country. They beat us in a monsoon with JOK and beat Penn St. at home on a last second FG after a 3.5 hour weather delay. MSU beat Indiana, Minnesota and Maryland by a combined margin of 21 points - that is pathetic and does not warrant a #16 ranking.
December 3rd, 2017 at 7:49 AM ^