Confidence levels on recruits

Submitted by Real and Spectacular on

Curious to hear how confident you are in landing the targets we are currently recruiting. Here are mine:

Near locks-90+%: Black, Anthony, Ruiz

Looking good-75%: Wilson, Singleton, Collins

Cautiously optimistic-60%: Filiaga, Irvin-Bey, Hicks, DPJ (My head tells me UM but he's so quiet about everything, it makes me nervous)

Fighting from behind- 35%: Harris, Tufele, Solomon, Gay (All these guys are major talents but I can't really say we lead for any of them)

There are a few others in the mix and new names may pop up, but I'm really hoping we get everyone from the top 2 categories and 3 or 4 of the bottom 2.

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ghostofhoke

December 14th, 2016 at 12:50 PM ^

Stick with that gut feeling of yours Real and Spectacular, it will serve you well. Nobody on this site save for a few guys who actually cover recruiting and talk to recruits have any idea what is really going on, they're just providing their own "feels" about what they've read, which is great but none of it is fact. And nobody doing any writing really knows anything about Harris at this point other than he is committed to Bama and has quite a few interactions with our staff and good trips to AA. I am optimistic that we have a fighting chance at getting him and won't be surprised if it happens but to say it's better than a coin flip is simply overly homeristic. The staff has the opportunity to prove it's recruiting chops with the way this whole deal closes and that's what separates the men from the boys in recruiting. I'm confident our staff can get it done and there will be a lot of these battles that go our way but we're up against the big time programs now who got where they are by closing and they have the resumes to go along with them. It won't be hard for Saban to make a phone call to Harris to plead a case why it would be good for his football future to stick with his commitment (although maybe not possible with the blackout period). Regardless, any kid who has been paying attention to college football doesn't need to be reminded that they are holding a golden ticket if they are committed to a place like Bama. Michigan is building but it's still a bit of a leap of faith no matter what we want to believe because of our fandom.

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Hard-Baughlls

December 14th, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^

What separates the "men from the boys" in recruiting is the involvement of boosters, $, and bagmen.  While it's less of a secret in basketball with street agents doing the dirty work, I think we had an up close look at how that variable ($) plays in to the equation when recruiting the elite of the elite last year in the Gary recruitment.

We had his freaking high school coach here, had him on campus numerous times, and sill almost lost out to Clemson at the end. I'm not naive and don't think our players don't get special "perks", but to think we can compete with the SEC and OSU when it comes to straight up paying players and their families is unrealistic.

For better or worse, and as hypocritical as the punishment was, the Fab 5 fiasco has had UM trying to stay above board as much as possible in recruiting over the past 25 years.  We also don't have a looney local fanbase/media that will cover anything shady going on like in some other college towns where football is everything.

It is what it is, but if Carr could land top 5 classes, I'm sure Harbaugh will as well.  Landing absurd Saban / Meyer level classes may not happen as often, but won't matter since we have a more relentless coach, better developer of QB talent, better system, and the marginal difference in talent will be made up for because of it.

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ghostofhoke

December 14th, 2016 at 5:06 PM ^

I agree with basically all your points but winning does just as much for recruiting as bagmen. My good friend's brother in law is the recruiting coordinator for Clemson, I can guarantee that what he is doing isn't dirty. There is certainly no accounting for boosters and outside influencers and they may definitely have been involved but getting to the CFP will do just as much or more to help us get classes that can compete with Saban and Urban. Once you get to that level and have the machine running on all cylanders you're kind of a moron to play dirty and risk having it all come crashing down. Way too much at stake at that point and I don't think it is an advantage either. Urban doesn't have to pay kids to go to Ohio St. just like we don't have to pay kids to come to Michigan. I'm not naive enough to say it couldn't or doesn't happen but I think there are some schools where it's obviously a part of the program and others where it's not as prevalant. Battles with the top kids when you see an Ole Miss suddenly get involved or maybe like the news growing about Isaiah Wilson to UGA? That's weird and raises an eyebrow for sure. 

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ColeIsCorky

December 14th, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^

FWIW, Sam's "gut" is telling him that the coaching staff believes they're getting Harris. It may actually be in that 60% range or higher. He confirmed that this morning.

Sam's not saying he will commit to Michigan, but he is saying that the coaching staff believes that he will.

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ghostofhoke

December 14th, 2016 at 12:43 PM ^

You're seriously going to give better than a coin flip on a kid who is currently committed to the defending national champions, current #1 seed and produces ~6-10 draft picks per year? Okay. I love the possibility that he could flip as well but it's good to know something like this as it helps me understand why people are dumbfounded when seemingly obvious things happen in recruiting. 

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ghostofhoke

December 14th, 2016 at 4:58 PM ^

The sales pitch of come learn and grow for a few years without having to be an every down back, still have a shot at a Heisman and multiple National Championships and be a first round pick with a healthy body that hasn't been destroyed from carrying the ball 30x/game for four years is a pretty strong argument as well. I'm sure his mom loves the sound of that.

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Prince Lover

December 14th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^

WR from Connecticut. And who happens to be 6'4". I don't seem to remember that. Put him and Nico on the same field, yeah, OSU is going to need 6* db recruits. I'd be surprised if all OSU commits stick. Wouldn't want to face that gauntlet for the next four years. I just remember that video of how Ambry Thomas couldn't even nudge Nico off his route when they were camping against each other at UM last summer. DBs will have nightmares about facing that offense! Can't wait, future is bright!! Go Blue!!

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tjohn7

December 14th, 2016 at 12:37 PM ^

I'm no expert.  What I do know is that Sparty's beat writer (Scherer) just put in a CB for DIB to Michigan. If DPJ does what he's expected to then that's the Top 6 in Michigan for the good guys. Hail Yes!

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mclub

December 14th, 2016 at 12:39 PM ^

Im higher on Harris. Sam keeps saying his gut tells him Michigan staff thinks they get him. While not quite a gut feeling, our coaches being as confident as they are makes me optimistic.



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ghostofhoke

December 14th, 2016 at 12:58 PM ^

+1 for the reverse psychology and because you're probably going to get banged alot for your opinion. I'm more optimistic than you on DPJ but it's good to keep things realisitic, I feel like he's got a hell of a poker face. I don't know that I'd be able to be so agnostic in public if I was that kind of athlete. Part of the fun of being a high profile athlete is loving sports and rooting for different teams. It'd be a shame if you deliberately stayed out of the fray and didn't show passion for a team because you're concerned how the public will view it and what their assumptions would be. I'd probably be one off those guys who rotates wearing a different piece of gear from every school recruiting me on a daily basis.

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GhostofJermain…

December 14th, 2016 at 12:41 PM ^

To the fact that there were 5-6 verbals on Monday show.  He also somewhat dismissed this notion, however I think it's interesting the 5-6 are all close to shoe in's, which is why I think everything is soo quiet on DJP.  Add to the fact he spoke about his sit down with DPJ mom at opening, and chose not to publish because he thought it might ruined the kids announcment and hype for the year.  The verbals are/were:

DPJ

AMBRY

JKP

RUIZ

NICO

BLACK

and I believe Wilson was the 6th. 

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