The Combine put the Hutchinson/Thibodeaux debate to rest
With Aidan Hutchinson's fantastic showing at the Combine, and Kayvon Thibodeaux's less than expected performance, the debate over which EDGE is going to be drafted first has closure. Before the Michigan vs Georgia playoff game Kayvon Thibodeaux had been ranked the #1 college player at NFL MockDraft Database, and Aidan Hutchinson #2. But immediately after the game their places flipped:
Then for a few weeks their places flipped back and forth. This is where the debate of who would be drafted first started.
Enter the Combine.....
Here's the Top 5 EDGE player totals from the Combine. Absent from the list is Kayvon Thibodeaux.
Aidan Hutchinson was very impressive at the Combine. And the knock on Kayvon Thibodeaux, that he doesn't have fire, may have been shown to be true.
Whatever is the case, here's what happened to both players numbers:
Thibodeaux had fallen to #3 before the combine, and the Combine didn't move him up. (Many mock drafts have moved him down lower than #3 now). Aidan Hutchinson is solidly at #1. So the debate is dead.
The next question is, will Hutch be taken #1 overall. Well, at the moment it looks like Evan Neal is going to go #1. Not because he is the #1 overall rated player in the draft. He is ranked at #2 at MockDraft Database:
The reason Evan Neal could be picked ahead of Hutch is because of team need. Jacksonville needs O Linemen more that D Linemen.
This is how the Top 5 Draft picks are projected to go with team need factored in:
Here's a short list of the top players, in an order not accounting for team need.
It's a Top 11 to include where David Ojabo ranks:
Aidan Hutchinson's fire set him apart at the Combine. Here's to hoping he's picked #1. Though he has said he wouldn't mind being picked by Detroit so he's close to home.
Would you like some Hutchinson fire? WARNING! This video is highly addicting! And BTW, turn up the volume. The only correct way to listen to this is loud.
I am hopeful that Aidan will have a successful NFL career.
Cool post, thanks for sharing.
Considering the havoc they wreaked at the end of the season, I’m surprised none of the Georgia DL are projected to go in the top 10 picks.
"then won't pay for good supporting players to field a solid team."
I don't think the problem has been that the Lions haven't been willing to pay decent money for players—the problem is that with rare exceptions, they've been lousy at identifying/selecting player talent, and that starts with their complete incompetence at hiring capable front office people and head coaches.
I have seen projections with Walker the first defensive player drafted. I wouldn't say any argument has been put to rest, and won't be until draft day, or realistically a few years down the road when we see how their careers pan out.
I'm not sure anything is settled at this point because it makes so much sense for the Jaguars to trade down.
On draft day, I look forward to three solid hours of discussion about Kenny Pickett's hand size.
Please oh please be there for the Lions, Aidan! I really sense the franchise going in the right direction and he's just the kind of guy our team needs.
@victors2000, you make a good point. i am reminded that so many of us are 'recovering lions fans', i have to say that i thought the talentless lions played their collective hearts out despite their record. that's a coach thing, good for campbell. aidan is the kind of kid that brings so much intensity and leadership to a locker room that you combine him with some of the other leaders on the lions and you could, conceivably, build a solid football team.
of course caveat of 60+ years of being the worst professional franchise in the known universe, but still a guy can at least cast an eye toward the lions and see how they start their season. i also don't think goff is a bad QB, he's okay, and if we give him a few weapons maybe there'll be a tiny heartbeat in detroit. maybe.
Nice post, great player. Think all users should come on here at least once and praise Aidan. This guy is awesome player and brought everything he had to Michigan. Any team will be lucky to get him even with a #1 overall pick. I still think Jags will grab him. Guys like him are too disruptive to pass up.
Jacksonville used their franchise tag on LT Cam Robinson yesterday, so they may not be locked into an OT at #1. Hutch may be their selection after his combine.
Good post - thanks for the effort. I still don't understand their metrics but always good to see a Michigan player at the top. Dax Hill also scored as the best safety in their metric with a 96.
I can't find raw stats yet, but Thibodeaux did post a 4.59 forty and benched 27 reps - the most by any DE.
According to the images in the OP, those are the only things Thibodeaux did. That raises the possibility that the OP is overinterpreting the combine data. Thibodeaux isn't on top because he didn't compete. That's not something teams will necessarily react to on draft day, though.
One possibility is that he avoided every event where he couldn't beat Hutchinson. If so, excellent work by his agent.
Anyone know why Aiden didn't bench?
I'm a 51 y/o Lions fan. The only team I love more than the Lions is Michigan, of course. To have Hutch go to Detroit would be such an exciting moment for all the reasons that people who love both teams have said. Hutch is 100% the type of player that Detroit needs. I can't think of another player ever that fits the combination of skill, excitement, position, motor, energy, program-building ability that Hutch could bring to Detroit.
Please. Please.
Deion Sanders showed up to the combine, ran his 40, and left.
The combine does absolutely nothing in determining who will actually be good on the field. It is useful for measurements- that's all.
Hutchinson is the man, and I will always remember his time at Michigan fondly. But we have NO WAY of determining who will be the better prospect. The debate is absolutely not over.
The way I feel hasn't changed between these two. I think Hutchinson is going to be an ultra-solid NFL prospect who will give a team a ton of effort and solid play.
Thibodeaux has a much higher upside but a much lower floor. I will not be mad with either pick, if the decision is between the two.
The Lions had an absolute crap day yesterday with the Rodgers deal and Robinson getting tagged by the Jags.
I doubt anybody is desperate enough for any of this year's QBs, so trading down is probably not an option.
They'll probably take Thibodeaux by default, and no one's going to be happy about it, Kayvon most of all.
If Hutchinson goes #1 to the Jags, I will probably take my oldest to go see him play there (about 2.5 hrs from Tallahassee) again. God help him if he goes to the Lions.
After watching the highlights video Ezekiel posted, can you imagine if a flag was thrown 50% of the time Hutch was held? They'd still be playing football with all the stoppages.
This has me curious and I'm too lazy to go look for myself. If by chance Malik Willis does not go in the top 10, when is the last time the top 10 didn't have a QB drafted? I'm not interested enough in the NFL or NFL draft to know, but I am appreciating the number of non-skill position players ranked in the top 10. These guys up there putting in a ton of hard work at (sometimes) thankless positions are going to get paid.
I hope the Lions can snag him. He's a perfect fit on and off the field. I like Thibodeaux a lot, but people with "motor" issues may not buy into rebuild mode in a cold city with a historically bad (SB Era) franchise.
I would also LOVE to see Aidan drafted by the Lions. He would be great for that team, combined with a coach like Dan Campbell, especially. Talk about effort!
Alas, my lifelong following of the Lions won't let me get excited about it. I have a nagging feeling that something will backfire. Another WR or TE? A stretch at QB? OL? Or do the Jag's take him now? Something will conspire against the Lions - either their own foolishness will rise up again, or some other team will screw them.
Today, it looks like the Jags will screw them...
I'm not entirely sure the debate is over between these two. There are plenty of guys who have great combines/crappy careers and vice versa. Now it certainly does not hurt to have a great combine, but the NFL is such a crapshoot that I don't think you can really rely on combine results as a reliable indicator for success. Now we just know he's a really stinking good athlete.
So much depends on what team these guys end up with, the scheme they're put into, how they fit into that scheme, the coaching they're given, how they respond to that coaching, etc. Aidan has a lot of things going for him, but we won't know how good he'll be for probably 2-3 years anyway.
Hope he finds a way to go #1 overall, but if Jacksonville ends up staying put it doesn't look like that'll happen. They need offensive line help far more than defensive line. I'm sure they'll try and shop the pick, but there are no generational "can't miss" prospects in this year's draft, no QBs that you look at and say you have to spend a top-5 or even a top-10 pick on, so I'm unsure if they'll get anyone to bite.
hopefully he'll be available at #2.......
Sparty afternoon radio on 97.1 is now fully promoting Jordan Davis at 2 now that Thibodeaux is dropping. I'd love to hear their analysis if Hutchinson was on any other team.
Jacksonville isn't taking Neal they just put the franchise tag on Cam Robinson and Neal is more of right tackle, right tackles don't go #1.
I cannot wish a Lions career on him. I want him to thrive and have great success.
Great stuff! The Lions are always bad, get the high draft pick, sign him for big bucks, and then won't pay for good supporting players to field a solid team. Winning will help as it draws in fans to help the financials to play for said players, while the Fords can still pay for their tea and crumpets. Lets hope the Fords have a brain fart and decide the winning and challenging for Division titles is important.
This settles the debate about who will be drafted first (probably). Does nothing to address who is the better player. That will play out over their NFL careers and will likely be heavily influenced by which teams/defenses they play on. If Aidan goes to the Lions and Thibodeaux goes to say Baltimore or Pittsburgh, seems likely Thibodeaux would have the better career unless he truly is a bust. My guess is in a vacuum both guys are elite talent and Thibodeaux's decision to mostly skip the combine is a bad look that says little about his talent.
I didn't really follow the combine, but it looks like Thibodeaux didn't participate in many of the tests: veritcal jump, shuttle, 3-cone, broad jump. I assume this is why he isn't listed in the top 5 athleticism scores for DE?
I have no idea what 89.9% 1st round means but I took it as there's an 89.9% chance he's a first-rounder. Which to me means 10.1% of whatever calculated that needs to be reprogrammed.
I would LOVE for the Eagles to get Ojabo. I've been waiting for them to get a high impact Michigan guy since Johnny Football was revealed to be David Molk.
Brandon Graham doesn't count because I didn't become a Michigan fan until 2011.
Is there a TL;DR version available?
@AFWolverine, it was 2013 when EJ Manuel went #16 to the Bills.
Jacksonville just franchised their left tackle, and took a right tackle in the 2nd round last year. Hutch is probably going #1 overall now.
If Hutch isn't there, I think the Lions will either trade down or pick Kyle Hamilton. I can't see Campbell getting on board with Thibodeaux.
I pray they trade down.
@MGoGrendel Great stuff! The Lion are always bad, get the high draft pick, sign him for big bucks, and then won't pay for good supporting players to field a solid team.
That's the old Lions. When they had high draft picks multiple years in a row (#2 Calvin, #2 Suh, #1 Stafford), they signed those guys to sky-high contracts that handcuffed them with the salary cap. Those three contracts were 3 of the 5 richest rookie contracts in NFL history. Having 2 1st rounders in two of those years made things even worse. Of course a new CBA was approved with the rookie salary cap after the damage had been done to the Lions.
With the Stafford trade, the last of those contracts is now off the books. Now that rookie contracts are now in line, the Lions should have more money to put talent around stars.
Whether they can ID and sign that talent is another question.
I wish I could put money on Kyle Hamilton not working out at #5. Effective super tall NFL safeties are almost nonexistant, and he's not even a tall "jacked" safety (aka a skinny linebacker), he's basically a lanky WR. He was injured a good part of the year so maybe that is biasing my opinion, but I don't see it.
There a a ton of mock drafts out there and they’ll change a ton prior to the draft. Aidan will surely get drafted top 2, but it’s foolish to think you have anything else figured out right now.
I agree that Hamilton has some pretty high bust potential IMO. He only ran a 4.59 40 which is anything but elite. I guess some think he'll be a Kam Chancellor or Steve Atwater big, slowish safety type.
I'll take "Things Michigan fans already knew" for 500, Alex
EC, I’ve sparred with you before and probably will again, but content-rich (positive) posts like this are very good and an asset the board. You’ve produced several like this, keep it up.
@St Joe Blues - great follow up.
If the Lions ID the talent, will they come? If I was an NFL free agent, I might take less money in Tampa where it's warm and there is a commitment to winning.
#Where's_the_reply_button!!
This feels like the Manning v Leaf debate before the draft. I have a feeling that Aidan will have a nice long NFL career while Thibodeaux will flame out.
For anyone who actually watched them both play the debate has been over for months lmao. It's just jabronis who didn't watch either play and assume 5 star > 4 star every time who thought Thibs was in the same league as Hutch. Thibs is an easy first rounder, Hutch should be #1 overall. Key word should, the Jags front office are morons and I guarantee they'll pass on him for someone "more exciting." We have a lot of self hating Lions fans, but I'd take being a Lions fan over a Jags fan every time.
I think Thibs may have the reputation of one of those "greats" who doesn't play 100% every down. No doubt incredibly talented (so is Rashan Gary) but has to prove himself down after down at the next level. I felt Gary was better than his actual draft position by GB but felt he wasn't always a game-changer in his junior year. Glad to see Rashan really putting it together now for GB.
I think Thibs goes in the next half of the top ten and will have plenty of motivation to prove himself. If there were merely talent, speed, size, - I'd go with him over Aidan. But can't pass Aidan's total package.
If I'm JAX, take the OL from Bama and build the team around Lawrence with a better line.
Lions have a chance to draft a guy who has the heart of Chris Spielman and the pass-rushing talent of Von Miller. Maybe he can even motivate Okudah (who either puts it together this year or is salary cap cut after the season).
You have to trade back if Aidan isn't there. Failing that, you have to go Jordan Davis OR Kyle Hamilton. Thibodeaux just screams self-entitled. The guy gets in his own way with every interview. The kind of guy that will just bide his time until he can hit free agency, and go someplace flashy.
Who knows? Maybe you can trade back AND get Jordan Davis or Kyle Hamilton.