CFP Scenario: How Would You Rank Them?
Georgia, Michigan, and Florida St. win out.
How would you rank these teams in this scenario?
- You cannot intentionally avoid rematches or rivalries.
- Alabama is out because they will have lost to Georgia in the SEC Championship Game.
- Louisville is out because they will have lost to Florida St. in the ACC Championship Game.
▪︎ Ohio St.: Minnesota (W), @Michigan (L, 20-24)
▪︎ Washington: @Oregon St. (W), Washington St. (W), Oregon (L, 34-38)
▪︎ Oregon: @Arizona St. (W), Oregon St. (W), Washington (W, 38-34)
▪︎ Texas: @Iowa St. (W), Texas Tech (W), Oklahoma (W, 34-31)
Who makes your CFP in this scenario? How is everyone seeded? Who is #5 and #6?
November 15th, 2023 at 4:07 AM ^
Is this assuming Washington loses to Oregon in the p12 championship?
if that’s the scenario, Oregon is in.
if Uw wins then naturally they’re in.
November 15th, 2023 at 4:12 AM ^
I even gave you the score.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:47 AM ^
You did. But it was a little confusing because you separated out UM, FSU, UGA at the top.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
Because they're all undefeated and in...
November 15th, 2023 at 6:34 PM ^
Double post.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
Correct. In OP's proposed scenario Oregon is in.
OSU & Texas can go either way for 5/6 (OSU would have the more "forgivable loss" while Texas is a conference champion and OSU wouldn't be.)
Washington 7.
November 15th, 2023 at 4:11 AM ^
I should've included the final records:
▪︎ Ohio St. (11-1): Minnesota (W), @Michigan (L, 20-24)
▪︎ Washington (12-1): @Oregon St. (W), Washington St. (W), Oregon (L, 34-38)
▪︎ Oregon (12-1): @Arizona St. (W), Oregon St. (W), Washington (W, 38-34)
▪︎ Texas (12-1): @Iowa St. (W), Texas Tech (W), Oklahoma (W, 34-31)
Ohio St. one loss is on the road to the #1 or #2 team in the country, by 4 points. Ohio St. also beat ND, on the road in the non-conference.
Washington wins the Pac-12 regular season and loses a Pac-12 Championship Game, but will argue that OSU didn't even play in their championship game.
Oregon avenges their regular season loss and wins the Pac-12 Championship.
Texas does the same, avenges their regular season loss and wins the Big XII Championship. Plus Texas beat Alabama (while Oregon played Portland St., Texas Tech and Hawaii).
November 15th, 2023 at 5:30 AM ^
What do you rank them when Ohio State loses by 20+ points?
November 15th, 2023 at 7:59 AM ^
So if Michigan lays an egg against Maryland but roars back and beats OSU and wins the b1g, we could have 6 1-loss teams vying for 2 spots?
November 15th, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
Not happening. But it does strike me as wild that M could have five games left in its season. Having kept some of these guys fresh and avoided injuries (keep knocking wood) might end up making a pretty big difference.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:00 AM ^
If Michigan loses to maryland but beats osu then they'll go to Indy and watch the playoffs on TV.
November 15th, 2023 at 4:25 AM ^
Georgia, Michigan, Oregon, FSU
Next Four: Bama, OSU, Texas, Washington
November 15th, 2023 at 8:15 AM ^
If Florida State wins out (per the given scenario), they won't be behind Oregon.
I think that all 4 teams will be Conference Champs this year.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:46 AM ^
Perhaps the committee would go for the undefeated Seminoles. But I based my picks on which was the better team, and Oregon (with a win v. UW in the Championship) has a far better resumé.
November 15th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^
How in the HELL do you have a 2 loss Bama ahead of a 1 loss Texas, who beat Bama, on the road, convincingly?
November 15th, 2023 at 4:57 AM ^
If Washington wins out, I think they'd be the 4th team. Can Oregon beat Washington for the Pac 12 championship? If so, then Oregon.
November 15th, 2023 at 5:48 AM ^
1 Georgia
2 Michigan
3 Florida State
4 Oregon
5 Texas
6 Washington
7 Ohio State
November 15th, 2023 at 6:05 AM ^
UGA #1 - no one has beaten them, keep the title.
UM #2 - 31-28 OSU (meaning close loss.
Washington #3 - beat the trail twice
an ohio state #4 - the big ten!
November 15th, 2023 at 6:07 AM ^
Eff the big ten. Eff hoes at ten big.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:35 AM ^
Which is the very reason they are getting two in this year
November 15th, 2023 at 7:03 AM ^
Georgia, Michigan, FSU, Oregon in that order.
OSU is not getting in over any of the three mentioned above given the circumstance. And OP clearly states Oregon win over Washington, so why would Washington get in over Oregon? They've been really bad against mediocre teams recently. Oregon outplayed them in the first game and probably should've beaten them.
November 15th, 2023 at 10:22 AM ^
I'd put Texas in over Oregon. The Alabama win counts for something. Are Wazzu and Oregon State going to push for the PAC12? GA, MI, FSU, TX
If Washington wins it will be obviously be GA, MI, WA, FSU.
I like both of those scenarios.
We have 3 games to win before then. OSU won't be an easy game.
November 15th, 2023 at 3:08 PM ^
Texas has the best win, but Oregon has a better resume overall.
November 15th, 2023 at 7:01 AM ^
huh? This is not possible
You mean 31-28 Michigan (meaning close win)...
Also, I literally said FSU wins out and you have OSU #4.
None of this makes sense.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:12 AM ^
I think it would come down to Oregon and Texas. Texas’ win over Alabama looks great, but in this scenario, Oregon avenges their only loss to Washington. For that, I’d give the edge to Oregon
November 15th, 2023 at 6:27 AM ^
In his scenario, Texas also avenges their only loss to Oklahoma
November 15th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
Yes, but doesn’t Oklahoma already have 2 other losses? A win over a now 3 loss team isn’t as impressive as a win over a now 1 loss team.
November 15th, 2023 at 6:26 AM ^
Texas not making it would be one of the bigger slights since the CFP started, imo. I know we address this next year but that would really be the cherry on top.
That being said, I'd still put Oregon in that 4 spot.
Georgia-Oregon
Michigan-FSU
November 15th, 2023 at 7:08 AM ^
This season is why 8 is the right number.
Penn St. shouldn't be sniffing the CFP.
Just take the top 8 like we currently take the top 4. I don't know why we had to over think it.
And if you look, I'd argue this scenario results in 7 CFP teams. All of those schools have a legit argument to continue playing.
Let a bunch of above average teams fight for the 8 spot, and let's roll.
The only caveat I'd have is...you have to take the top G5 team, if they are ranked #9-#12. So this year, that wouldn't apply.
But this helps prevent #8 ranked PSU getting in over #11 ranked Boise or Tulane. But you have to be #9-#12 (obviously if you're higher than 9, you're already in).
November 15th, 2023 at 8:02 AM ^
I get the 8 vs 12 argument. Just want to add this is a great 4 team playoff year.
end of season games are acting like qf playoffs: Michigan-Osu, Washington-Oregon, Alabama-Georgia. If all win out, then Texas gets a snub, but that’s it.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:08 AM ^
Texas not getting in despite having a tough non-conference schedule simply because they are the lowest ranked 1 loss champion should put to the bed the idea that a tough schedule helps you in any way.
November 15th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^
Texas did not play a tough schedule. The Bama win is great. Rice & Wyoming were their other OOC games. The Big12 is not good this year. They lost to Oklahoma which has then lost two games in the same weak conference.
November 15th, 2023 at 11:08 AM ^
Yeah, I haven't been impressed with Texas. Their big win was at Alabama, but they recently struggled with Houston and TCU, who have losing records.
They get to finish with Iowa state and Texas tech. Woopie!
November 15th, 2023 at 7:25 AM ^
Aren’t we getting a bit out in front of our skis? We still have to play Maryland.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:06 AM ^
Why number do you wear? I’ll be sure to look for you on Saturday.
Lighten up Francis, fans can worry about whatever we want.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
Pretty sure that was sarcasm
November 15th, 2023 at 7:57 AM ^
Oregon in
over Washington because of neutral site (and later in season) win.
over Ohio state because of conference championship preference
over Texas because Texas can’t seem to beat anyone by more than a few points
November 15th, 2023 at 8:04 AM ^
Winner of Was/Oregon…unless that winner somehow has 2 losses which then it’s Texas.
November 15th, 2023 at 8:37 AM ^
Here is my ranking based on the OP scenario.
#1 Georgia
#2 Michigan
#3 FSU
#4 Oregon
November 15th, 2023 at 8:38 AM ^
Per your scenario -
1. UGA
2. Michigan
3. FSU
4. Oregon
5. Texas
6. OSU
November 15th, 2023 at 8:43 AM ^
1) Georgia
2) Michigan
3) FSU
4) Oregon
Which is exactly what I have been predicting lately. I think most of these things are probably going to happen although I think Texas might lose and I am predicting a loss for Washington at Oregon State this weekend.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
Another potential wrinkle is if Bama beats Georgia in the conference championship. In that situation does the SEC get two teams in? Or does Georgia get knocked out of the playoff by another 1 loss conference champion?
November 15th, 2023 at 1:09 PM ^
I almost think you have to knock UGA out. I don't think any team this year has been so impressive that they could be justified, as a one-loss non-champion, taking a spot from a one-loss champion. UGA included.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:11 AM ^
In that scenario you described OP, i think we'd end up with:
1. UGA
2. UM
3. FSU
4. UO
5. Texas
6. OSU
November 15th, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
I'd put in Oregon. They'd have the resume, having won the best top-to-bottom conference in the country this year, and they pass the eye-test. With their speed and athleticism I think they're the one team out there that can beat Georgia and/or Michigan. Ohio State is 1st out followed by Washington and then Texas.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:33 AM ^
1. Georgia
2. Mich
3, FSU
4, Oregon
5. Tex
6. Buttguys
November 15th, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
Don't really care to speculate. More interested in who we want to play, which impacts rooting interests. My inclination is that I'd first rather play FSU, then maybe Washington. Texas and Oregon look like they have more complete teams, and Alabama looks improved too since their QB decided to give up on passing much. What do others think?
November 15th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^
I agree.
The odds of multiple unbeaten conference champions this season seems "good". And, I don't see how a one loss team that did not win it's conference could possibly get into a four team playoff over an undefeated P5 conference champ.
If I looked at the top teams and who would I prefer to face in a semi-final (as a Michigan fan) - the order might be: Florida State, Washington, Texas, Bama, Oregon, and Georgia.
A one loss B1G team that did not win its division will not be in the CFP this season.
Let's enjoy the journey and cheer the Maize & Blue on...
The next three Saturdays will be entertaining.
Enjoy!
November 15th, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
Oregon in under that scenario, Texas 5th.
November 15th, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
In that scenario, which I happen to think is most likely, Michigan, Georgia, Florida State, Washington imho.