CFP Meetings: CBS Sports Article - discussion of expansion to 14 and sample "bracket" for 2024 12 team playoff
The future structure of the CFP is a topic of conversation and a meeting was held earlier this week to discuss "the future of the 12 team structure" before it's even had its first iteration
CBS Sports posted two articles (not paywalled) - that cover: 1) what a 12 team format might look like for the 2024 season with "way too early" rankings, and 2) an update on the CFP meeting which included possible expansion to 14 or more teams after 2026 (which I believe is the term of the agreed to 12 team format).
Here's the link with an update on the conversations that took place on Wednesday - the key is - no decisions were reached - but, certain Commissioners would like a "soft" timetable for a return to discussions. https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-exploring-expansion-to-14-teams-multiple-automatic-qualifiers-for-conferences/ Personally, I believe that increasing the size of the playoff dilutes the importance of a conference championship - but, my opinion doesn't matter. And, the "duration" of a 12 team playoff would be four weekends of competition - the duration of a 16 team playoff would be the same - four weekends of competition. My guess is - the CFP will expand in time - and, it's not necessarily exciting news - but, money is driving this discussion. And - with a 14 team format there are two byes - with a 16 team format the "bye" count drops to zero, so teams that play in their respective CCGs will play an extra game - which would mean a season of 17 games if a team played in its CCG and reach the CFP Final.
Part two is the CFP "matchup". The following is a model that CBS projected based on "way too early" rankings for this season. My opinion is - if a conference has four (4) teams in the playoff, that those four teams should be seeded in four different quadrants of the bracket - SO, if a single conference actually has the four best teams - they'd meet in the semifinals and final. This would avoid "conference cannibalism" in the opening or quarterfinal round. Here's a link to that article: https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/college-football-playoff-bracket-early-predictions-under-5-7-model-as-12-team-format-begins-in-2024-season/
This is CBS' projection of the brackets as noted in the linked article. My comment is in parentheses.
(12) Liberty at (5) Oregon
Winner advances to play (4) Utah
(11) Ole Miss at (6) Texas - (this would be two SEC teams meeting in the first round)
Winner advances to play (3) Clemson
(10) Notre Dame at (7) Michigan - (this could be a potential Michigan - OSU rematch in the quarterfinals)
Winner advances to play (2) Ohio State
(9) Penn State at (8) Alabama - (this could be a potential Alabama - Georgia game in the quarterfinals)
Winner advances to play (1) Georgia
This structure makes much more sense to me - conference teams don't meet until the seminfinals - if at all possible. I realize the seeding "don't match up perfectly" - but, the overall schedule seems to make more sense. You could actually have a final four that's made up of a single conference - either the B1G or the SEC.
(8) Alabama at (5) Oregon
Winner advances to play (4) Utah
(11) Ole Miss at (7) Michigan
Winner advances to play (3) Clemson
(10) Notre Dame at (6)Texas
Winner advances to play (2) Ohio State
(12) Liberty at (9) Penn State
Winner advances to play (1) Georgia
So, what do you think? Any perspectives to share? It seems to me that the B1G and SEC are trying to get as large of a committed team / revenue share as possible and they'll be throwing their collective weight around in the coming weeks / months.
February 22nd, 2024 at 9:57 AM ^
That is pretty much the one part I am fine with. It keeps a little more value in the regular season.
February 22nd, 2024 at 9:59 AM ^
I feel like if we keep adding teams to the playoff its just going to muddy the water. I would have preferred eight, but now it's getting the point where three lost teams are going to be getting in.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:00 AM ^
I think 14 or 16 teams is too much and 14 is just a temp bridge to 16.
But if they do this, the conf title games need to go away. Byes are incentivising the teams to win title games, but w/o that it's an extra game that a good team has a chance to either drop out of the playoff or lose significant seeding. I don't think home sites for a round or two are enough incentive.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:04 AM ^
Non-conference games for the power conferences need to go as well. There isn't any reason for them anymore, if there really ever was.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:28 AM ^
Hard disagree on that. The reason for them is that they are interesting and fun, which is what draws viewers and what funds this entire operation.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:03 AM ^
You could actually have a final four that's made up of a single conference - either the B1G or the SEC.
Is that a good thing? I understand different perspectives, but I think this is exactly what the committee would want to avoid. First round rematches aren't ideal, but I actually think it would be worse (at least from an eyeballs/$$ perspective) if the final 4 was all one conference.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:04 AM ^
I think 8 teams maximum, 6 teams minimum.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:10 AM ^
I have an idea:
A 120 team playoff. Play 4 games vs random opponents. Then seed the teams and start the playoff. It'll take 12 weeks or so. If you lose you're done. Simple.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:45 AM ^
I like this. A cool variation might be play 3 games outside your conference and then 9 games in conference. If you go undefeated you get to play in the national championship game. If there are multiple undefeated teams you just pick the two with the hardest SOS. If there is still a controversy it can come down to an eye test. Someone might get screwed every once in awhile but FSU got screwed this year so what is the difference? (FSU actually got screwed worse with a 4 team playoff than if it was just one game and UofM and Washington were chosen.)
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:24 AM ^
Haven't even done 12 teams, yet already talking 14. OK. (insert eye roll emoji here)
Here's a prediction: at least one of this year's 1st round playoff games will NOT sell out, nor even come CLOSE to selling out.
College football works on New Year's Day --- because it's a national holiday and the Bowls are generally in seasonally warm spots. College football works on Saturdays between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, because that's tradition, it's a sport that's iconic with autumn, and the students are mostly around.
But will college football work on Saturday December 21, 2024? I'm far from convinced it will. It's the "crunch period" right before the holidays, most of the students will be long gone from campus, travel is more difficult to book and more expensive than usual, and weather's much more likely to be an issue versus in the regular season.
Maybe I'm wrong ..... but the playoff group really should see what the answer to my question is before freaking considering expanding the 1st round even further.
February 22nd, 2024 at 11:58 AM ^
First round is on campus yeah? If so I dont see how anyone's stadium wouldnt be rocking.
In a season of games versus Wake Forests, Northwesterns, and Vanderbilts of the world Im guessing a playoff at home vs FSU would do just fine.
February 22nd, 2024 at 12:50 PM ^
But what if it's Tulane? At Noon on Saturday the 21st when it's 25 degrees and windy with snow flurries? And the last Finals wrapped up 3 days prior on Wednesday and many of the students have hit the road already?
I'm not picking on Michigan with this example, as PSU (and other schools) have had comparable cases over the years --- but we have that empircal data point of the 2022 Illinois/Michigan game. That game mattered quite a bit, but Michigan Stadium was far from at its best.
February 23rd, 2024 at 2:34 PM ^
However many fans were in the stands for a record setting Tulane attended game it will be much much more. No Tulane student/fan is missing a once in a lifetime event PLUS this would bring all the other teams fans that would be willing to travel. The stadium would be packed even in your worst case scenario of the worst weather ever plus the worst program you can think of.
Excerpt of the 1973 season. Yes LSU but wont they be playing an LSU type team (probably)?
The Green Wave won its first six games for the school's best start since 1934, but the highlight of the year was the season finale with LSU. In that game, the Green Wave beat the Tigers for the first time since 1948, taking a 14–0 win before a beyond-capacity crowd of 86,598 in old Tulane Stadium.
February 22nd, 2024 at 12:51 PM ^
Joel Klatt this year similarly pointed out that December football is a thing we're missing out on, the break between championship weekend and NYD is long. This year, championship weekend is the 7th and the on-campus first round is the 21st. Then it's just 10 days to the first QF.
But to Nittany's point - while I was personally hyped for the CFP title this year, I do feel like the Rose Bowl was and is more of an EVENT. And while the Rose is special, I felt the Orange and Fiesta also had us excited heading into it in the past couple of years. The CFP Title still got plenty of M fans to Houston - but in January '25, if you've got the Rose on NYD followed by the Orange 10 days later and then the CFP Title in Atlanta 10 days after that - if any Big Ten team, not just Michigan and Midwest/Northeast schools but Oregon and Washington too - for any Big Ten team not in SoCal, that's 2 trips in January not around a holiday weekend (MLK is the one weekend that DOESN'T have CFP games), and the games are adjacent to the weekend. And that's after traveling to a NYD game, 3 of which are not in a Big Ten state (Fiesta, Sugar, Peach). That's a pretty tall ask for any of your regularly competitive schools, and then remember that Oregon/Washington may also be traveling to get to Indy every year just before the holiday season, on a week's notice.
February 22nd, 2024 at 1:01 PM ^
Thinking more about this, and I think that if we keep QFs on NYD - which isn't my preference but I can see how it'll be fun to have 3 meaningful games dominate NYD - then the locations of the SFs and the Finals need to be thoughtful and accomodating to the Super 2. And the Supersized Big 18 makes this more challenging.
The first two years of the CFP, the mid-January SFs will be in the Orange, Cotton, Peach and Fiesta. The Title Games will be in Atlanta and Miami. The CFP should commit to having the games in easier to travel places, not just bowl venues. We all whine about SEC bias, but Atlanta is a solid choice and easy destination for most of the SEC and ACC. For the Big Ten, the equivalent is Indiana (I'll stump for Detroit too). Chicago has a outdoor stadium, Minneapolis is a bit like Dallas - sorta on the edge of most of the Big Ten's territory, a bit of a longer haul than Indy/Atlanta.
Pasadena, New Orleans, and Miami are all great spots for a NYD game - warm-weather vacation places that everyone is excited to go to. I think the Fiesta could be a quality 4th annual option.
But Atlanta, Indy, Dallas and Minneapolis are all a bit more like business trip destinations - and therefore, somewhat ideal for the CFP SFs. You can call them peach and cotton and corn and winter bowls if you'd like. But they make it easier for much of the Super 2 and the power 2 to travel there on a short notice. And if the Big Ten wants to throw the WC schools a bone, then there should be a SF or Final in Vegas every few years too. I'd say if we stick to this calendar, then the SFs should mostly be in Atlanta and Indy, with the Indy bowl moving to Seattle every third year or so, and the Atlanta bowl to Dallas around the same time. That or rotate the southern SF through 3 cities, and the northern one as well through 3 cities - Seattle, Minneapolis (or Vegas), and Indianapolis.
For the most part, people will probably shell out for the final.
February 22nd, 2024 at 5:27 PM ^
I like that idea quite a lot.
I never really thought about it --- but even in the CFP era, the Semifinals and Finals draw fundamentally different crowds. Simply because of timing, the Semifinals will get more of the "vacation, have a lot of fun, let's make a week out of a trip to this city" crowd. While the Final gets more of the "corporate, less fun, in-and-out" crowd.
I'd guess that Michigan's games against Alabama and Washington - they were considerably different experiences.
So, yes: QF in 4 permanent spots. I'd choose Phoenix in addition to NOLA, Miami and Pasadena. It's skews a bit older than other cities, but yes, but Phoenix is a holiday vacation spot.
For the SF, choose more "corporate" cities that, importantly, are attached to an airline hub to help with travel. Dallas, Atlanta, Minneapolis work perfectly here. Detroit, Charlotte & Houston also fit. Chicago if they ever get their indoor stadium built. Indy less so, just because of the airline situation.
"Farm out" the Championship game much like the Super Bowl.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:40 AM ^
Conferences become less important with a playoff and with all of the realignment. The B1G and SEC will be like the AFC and NFC and the rest of the conferences will be the equivalent of NFL divisions. No one cares about the divisions other than ranking for the playoff.
The money guys wanted CFB to be like March Madness or the NFL so bad, they've destroyed a large part of what made it special. Defeating your cross-town or cross-state or neighboring state rival used to be what college football was all about. People cared about UofM/OSU, Army/Navy, USC/UCLA, Harvard/Yale, Auburn/Bama, etc. Now it is the Michael Jordan syndrome. Unless you are the GOAT, you suck. Only the national champions matter. I'm good with that this year, but it diminishes the game overall.
February 22nd, 2024 at 10:57 AM ^
At 12, 14 or 16, you're getting 3 to maybe 4 non-super 2 teams. Let's say 4 for math (3 champs and ND/at large). Below the Super 2, the championship game is a playoff game. Barring an upset of a super 2 champ, it's hard to imagine anyone else getting in, but ND
So at 12 that means 4 Big Ten and 4 SEC schools (as in the CBS example). At 14, it's 5 each, but the champ still gets a bye. At 16, it's 5 each, and the champ and the finalist both play an extra game.
My point is that at that point, winning the championship is actually a hindrance to the playoff. It's truly a different competition since nearly 1/3 of each league is getting in. In a super 2 era, even a 12 team playoff feels a bit too large. But more than that is unfair for the championship teams
February 22nd, 2024 at 11:34 AM ^
I want to see Miami playing at Michigan in late December
February 22nd, 2024 at 11:36 AM ^
I like the CBS one better. It shouldn't matter if you are conference opponents or not. Rank them based on results and they play it out. It's okay if you play a conference opponent early in the tournament.
February 22nd, 2024 at 12:08 PM ^
It's all so dumb. But I'll still tune in.
February 22nd, 2024 at 12:49 PM ^
With the new CCG qualifiers, imagine a scenario where Michigan and OSU are like they were the last two years: both 11-0. Pretty much in all circumstances both teams are in the playoff already at 11-0. So they could play potentially: Regular Season, the following week in the CCG, and then in the quarterfinals. So say we beat OSU in the regular season, and the CCG, and then after our bye we play again: OSU.
That is supremely stupid. All of this could be solved with 4 super conferences and the Conference champ of each goes to the playoffs. That makes the CCGs a quarterfinal game in the conference footprint, and then no rematches, no byes, just conference champions in the playoffs.
But alas, that makes too much sense.
February 22nd, 2024 at 1:25 PM ^
That bracket and recent changes are why I probably won't be as invested as in years past.
Michigan could play Ohio State three times in 4 games: season finale, B1G Championship rematch, CFP Quarterfinals.
I'm sure the TV networks would salivate over that, but I don't know that I would.
February 22nd, 2024 at 1:59 PM ^
Say that we win the first two, that will give us a Bye, and the team we play in the quarterfinals could be OSU. So there is a not that out-of-the-box scenario that we could play OSU in 3 straight games