CFP expansion talks continue
Today an AP sports writer tweeted a memo from CFP Executive Director, Bill Hancock, concerning ongoing talks about expanding the playoffs. The memo says, "The support for expansion is evident, but there are several crucial details that remain under discussion."
This is the same AP writer that tweeted on September 22 that the expansion could be to 12 teams.
November 4th, 2021 at 9:47 PM ^
So, someone was tailgating the CFP expansion talks?
November 4th, 2021 at 9:53 PM ^
An expanded playoff is good for the sport, schools, ncaa and the athletes. Bowl games are irrelevant already its time to just totally turn the system upside down.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
I agree but sadly they seem destined to try and hose the on-campus games (which, to me, really is part of what makes CFB special) by replacing them with bowl game hosting sites. Why some lame committee in Tempe, AZ should accrue the benefits of hosting a game at the expense of the schools makes no sense to me. And AD's and/or Presidents or conference commisioners who support that hosing are guilty of malfeasance.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:42 PM ^
"what college football needs is more games in garishly corporate-looking, antiseptic NFL stadiums"
November 5th, 2021 at 6:28 AM ^
CFP committee about to pull an NCAA hockey committee and wonder in a few years why they cant sell out neutral site games thousands of miles from campus when the winner would inevitably need to travel thousands of miles again
November 5th, 2021 at 8:11 AM ^
IMO it’s less about some lame committee in Tempe and more about the SEC being afraid of playing in the snow and cold.
November 5th, 2021 at 10:40 AM ^
The SEC doesn't want away game power matchups in September either.
November 5th, 2021 at 9:01 AM ^
It may be more than just bowl games trying to keep these games off of campuses. Can you imagine trying to get a Georgia or LSU to come to Michigan Stadium for a mid December game and them having to wait to take the field for pregame until after the snow is cleared? I'm sure there's tremendous pressure from the SEC to make sure their teams don't have to play in any weather conditions under 60*.
Edit: Whoops, I should have kept reading. MGoChippewa had it covered.
November 5th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
It’s not just the committee, it’s the schools. An expanded playoff gives more schools hope to make the playoffs, but who is hosting is still going to be from the same teams at the top right now. Expanded playoffs might mean cincy can make the playoffs, but they know they will never host. So the vast majority of schools are going to look at the payoff th we get from bowls when making it as a safer bet than getting the financial boon of a home game.
A team like Michigan that would have made some expanded playoffs but likely not hosted is more interested in splitting a payoff at a neutral site than watching bama and osu get richer while taking home all the ticket proceeds at a home game.
November 5th, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
Except that most bowls don’t pay that well. Many schools lose money going to them. The playoff will be a monster cash cow just in terms of TV revenue.
November 4th, 2021 at 9:58 PM ^
It would make football season fun again because you could lose two games and still get in depending on schedule strength. It would make it much more like basketball where you don’t need nearly a perfect season to make the dance where anything can happen.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:55 PM ^
You could never lose two games and get in if one of those games is your last one of the season.
November 4th, 2021 at 11:43 PM ^
Even if you are 11-1 and a close loss? Not sure about that.
November 5th, 2021 at 12:17 AM ^
If the idiots did the obvious thing and instituted an 8-team playoff comprised of five P5 conference champions and three at-large teams, a conference champ could lose all of its non-conference games and still make the playoff if it wins its conference. I'm fine with that myself.
It would also even out recruiting over time, since a top HS recruit wouldn't have to consider just Alabama, OSU, Clemson or Oklahoma if they want to play in the playoffs.
November 5th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
If you're going to keep the conference championship games, not sure about this model. The conference championship games would become play-in games for the 5 winners, but has the weird outcome that a team could lose a play-in game and still make the playoffs.
If you want to keep the conference championship games, make them part of the first round of a playoff (so 2 teams from each of the p5 make the "conference championship path" of the first round the playoffs). Augment that with 3 other games that match up 6 teams not in a P5 conference championship game - I personally would take 2 teams from the 6th best conference include them in the "conference championship path" with the other 2 other games matching 4 teams (at most 1/conference) not in the "conference championship path" ). Reseed after you get down to 8 teams. Thus you have a 16 team playoff with only 2 or 3 more games than a 8 team playoff following conference championship games.
November 5th, 2021 at 1:49 PM ^
I'm actually not a fan of autobids because of the current structure of conferences. I do think conference championships should be rewarded and considered, but:
- Conferences are arrayed in very uneven ways (one very powerful division, one very weak)
- With increasing size, conf schedules have high variance. A team might play all the elite powers in their conference, or none of them until the CG. "SEC schedule" could mean a lot of things
- Non-conf games (incl. big wins or losses) are irrelevant to conference championships
- Conf champs are sometimes decided by arcane tiebreakers that have little to do with quality of the teams involved (e.g. the three-way scenario with M/MSU/OSU)
- Conf championship games can muddy the playoff picture as often as they clarify it, particularly if there are upsets or rematches. The ACC, Big 10, and Pac-12 have had some 4 loss teams (who won a weak division) pull an upset in the CG and win their conference.
So yeah we should try to reward champs but also have some flexibility for such scenarios. Doing autobids operates on the assumption that conferences are decided fairly and logically.
November 5th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
Using the conference championship games would allow the conferences to decide how they want to determine the teams they let in. If they want the winners of two unbalanced divisions decided based on wonky tie breakers, then so be it. If an "unworthy" team gets lucky in the conference championship game, so what? They get a chance to prove they belong next week. If they eliminated a "strong" team the how strong was that team really to begin with? Playoffs don't always result in the best team winning, sometimes it is a team that gets hot at the right moment. That is part of what makes the interesting.
Strenghth of schedule will be a problem no matter how you make selections.
The converse (no autobids) means largely perpetuating the current beauty contest to get in (albeit with a larger field). I'd rather a 4 loss winner of a weak P5 division get in than the xth place team in the SEC.
November 5th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I'm with you on the 8 team format. I would further try to maintain the "glamour" of the biggest bowl games by making them the quarterfinals and re-establishing conference tie-ins Rose (B1G v. Pac), Sugar (SEC v Invite), Orange (Big12 v. Invite), rotation of Cotton, Fiesta, Peach (ACC v. Invite). I really like the fact that it re-establishes the importance of the conferences which is greatly diluted by the current trends, and as a team could afford to lose a couple non-conference games it would allow scheduling of tougher opponents in those games. I would contend that having 3 at large choices would provide enough room to accommodate the nonP5 schools (ala Cincinnati this year) as well as deserving teams which lost conference championship games (the undefeated team that loses in an upset etc).
Then you add a semis and final weeks at neutral sites . Still doesn't address a problem fo rme of divorcing the team form the school, but in that regard I realize that I am a dinosaur and that that ship has sailed.
November 5th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
P4.
No way should whatever it is the Big 12 turns into (the Big East 2.0) have an autobid.
November 5th, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
Whatever it winds up being it at least needs to be more than 4. It’s kind of dumb that It started this way considering there are 5 of what we consider power conferences and only 4 slots. Guaranteeing that one conference will always be on the outside looking in. That’s before even considering letting a G5 team in. System should have started at 6 minimum. I personally think it will eventually get to 16 and we should start now instead of expanding every X amount of years. I really don’t understand the animosity towards more teams. It gives us more and better football to watch at the end of the year, it hurts nothing, and if you happen to be someone who just knows those pesky G5 teams will get blown out well you get the chance to actually see it on the field versus arguing your point endlessly online. Also if you make all of these bowl games that instantly makes a number of them much more relevant than they are now. Although I would much rather see them played on campus but I doubt that ever happens.
November 5th, 2021 at 7:28 PM ^
The reason the 4 team is a giant failure that can't draw viewers is because if you're going to do a playoff, you have to do a real playoff. None of this pussy footing around with 4 or 8. A proper playoff is 5/6 automatic bids plus 6-12 at larges.
Once we went to 4, the idea of "only the most deserving should be in" went out the window. 8 doesn't fix the basic problem that every good team deserves to be in, so we can get fun upsets every few years.
November 5th, 2021 at 5:04 AM ^
You mean like in 2016 when Michigan lost their last game of the season to OSU to fall to 10-2 and fell all the way to #5 in the rankings, which would be good enough to not only make the playoff, but host a first round game (if they keep that proposed model).
You really think Bama losing an end of season stunner to Auburn would knock them out of a 12 team play off? You really think a 1v2 conference title game would eliminate the losing team?
It’s almost like there’s precedent for this scenario where losing your final game still keeps you in that window of a 12 team playoff… weird.
November 5th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
It would make football season fun again because you could lose two games and still get in depending on schedule strength. It would make it much more like basketball
Not opposed to expansion per se but I like football season a lot more than basketball for this exact reason. Upsets and losses to top teams have major stakes. Watching Kansas lead Oklahoma in the 4th quarter was exciting in part because it had a chance to ruin Oklahoma's season, and not just be a single loss that moved them from a #5 to a #8 seed in a 12 team playoff.
But in basketball if Duke loses a shocker to (e.g.) Wake Forest, it's an interesting story for a minute but ultimately pretty irrelevant, since Duke will be a #1 or #2 seed anyway.
The tradeoff of expanding is that while powerhouses can lose 1, 2 or even 3 games without it costing them, other games will have more meaning later in the season, so I get that part.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:14 PM ^
What do these people not get about how big expanding the play-offs could be? Do they not see the revenue and excitement generated by March Madness. Just amazing that they have been so slow to move on this initiative. A real football play-off could be even bigger than what March Madness is.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
The 4 team playoff is in contract through 1/15/24, so the earliest they can make a change is the 2024 season.
November 5th, 2021 at 11:32 AM ^
Yea right -- they can break that contract as soon as they're ready. Who would they owe - ESPN / ABC, the venues? (genuine question, not snark)
Whoever it is, you say we can pay you the money we owe you for breaking the contract or we can reward you with rights to a much more lucrative first few years of the playoffs.
Summary -- the contract is definitely not what's preventing this from happening
November 5th, 2021 at 12:22 AM ^
The primary resistance has to be from the bowl representatives. They see their ridiculously overpaid jobs of promoting their bowl games being jeopardized by the playoffs.
November 5th, 2021 at 6:54 AM ^
Im sure thats the case and I don’t get why the NCAA and schools are so concerned about that. At best it seems theyre too buddy buddy with these bowls, at worst its openly corrupt and folks are probably being bribed for their support of a dying system
November 5th, 2021 at 8:28 AM ^
There is also a lot of money being made by keeping it the way it is. Whether its legitimate or not.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:18 PM ^
16 would be better than 12, Looks like it will not be implemented until the 2024 season. I think this will even out the recruiting.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:42 PM ^
but there are several crucial details that remain under discussion.
Not having to wait until 2024 could be part of those "crucial details".
November 4th, 2021 at 11:01 PM ^
12 is good, gives a bye to the top 4 teams.
November 5th, 2021 at 6:07 AM ^
There will be fans complaining about their team not getting the bye, and how they should have been in the Top 4 to get the bye.
There's some ugliness coming from Cincinnati fans right now about how they got "snubbed."
November 5th, 2021 at 8:29 AM ^
I dont understand why Cinci fans are pissed now? There is still a month of football left....A LOT can happen still.
November 5th, 2021 at 9:03 AM ^
They know they're essentially fighting with the Big 12, Pac 12 and ACC champ for one spot. A 1-loss B1G champ is essentially guaranteed a slot with Alabama/UGA, unless CHAOS hits those two conferences.
November 5th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^
Cincinnati's biggest problem is how they've looked against inferior opponents. Indiana is a very good example. Iowa, Penn St, and Ohio St dominated Indiana badly. But Cincy had a very close game with them, and were even out gained by them. So really, they only have themselves to blame. They are going to have to start blowing up inferior opponents, and add a tough out-of-conference game, and win it.
November 5th, 2021 at 11:43 AM ^
If UGA beats Bama, those two losses will keep Bama out. No 2-loss team has been in the playoff, and it won't start this year unless all hell breaks loose and everybody has 2 losses. Only way the SEC might get two teams in is if Bama beats an undefeated UGA in the SEC CG.
And just fuck that scenario with a hot iron...
November 5th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Who is left on Cincy's schedule that is a difference maker? Right now Cincy is banking on wins over Indiana, which as the season has gone on has showed that's not really something to brag about and a win over Notre Dame.
he win over Notre Dame sounds impressive until you look at their body of work. Going OT to beat Florida State. Having to come back to beat Toledo. A come back win against Virginia Tech. Those are wins but those are teams which Notre Dame should have stomped not had to fight tooth and nail to win. Maybe it gets better if Wisconsin continues to win but this isn't a very good Notre Dame team no matter what their record says.
So as the season winds down, other teams will have show case match ups against ranked teams while Cincy is sitting back saying, 'Look at our week four win against Notre Dame.'
November 5th, 2021 at 8:51 AM ^
I personally do not think there is that great of an advantage having a bye. It seems that a lot of times teams come off a bye week, they are not clicking as well as before their bye. Home field advantage would be the best approach if they want to give an advantage. Could you imagine having our first playoff game in the Big House in December. That would be awesome!
November 5th, 2021 at 5:07 AM ^
That's just too many teams. I think 12 is too many. I can't think of a year we've had 12 worthy teams. I would be cool with 8. Conference Champs and At large teams.
November 5th, 2021 at 5:39 AM ^
12 is fine. Year to year the top 12 teams are all having damn good seasons. They deserve to show on the field whether they belong out there or not.
What’s the worst that can happen? A few blowouts? Take a look at the scores in the current 4 team format, there’s blowouts now. I’d rather see top 12 matchups in games that matter instead of bowl games with top players sitting out and the rest of the team not wanting to be there.
Sure, the same teams are going to have the best chance at winning it. But you’ll get the occasional upset and you’re getting a half dozen+ meaningful, good games.
November 5th, 2021 at 7:41 AM ^
3 loss teams don't deserve consideration.
November 5th, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
If that 3 loss team wins a power conference or is considered one of the top 12 teams, they absolutely do.
November 5th, 2021 at 12:56 PM ^
Unless they are doing away with conference championship games, having auto bids for the 5 conference champs makes it effectively more than an 8 team playoff already. 10 teams play in those conference championship games for the rights to represent their conferences in the playoffs (ie play-in games).
Add in a few of at-large teams not in one of those conference championship games and, viola, you've got 10 to 13 teams from which the final 8 will be selected. Some if which have to win a game to get in, some of which get a bye (they get in whether they win a conference championship game or not.).
Incorporate the conference championship games into the playoffs. The week of the conference championship you have a 16 team field with 8 games (10 teams and 5 games are conference championship games and 6 teams and 3 games are at large). The winners of those 8 games get seeded into the rest of the 8 team playoff.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:43 PM ^
I want to see this solution:
Expand the playoff to 12, 16, whatever. Enough so that every FBS team has a chance at an invitation if they have an excellent season.
Move all bowl games to Labor Day Weekend, and count them as part of the regular season schedule. This alleviates scheduling problems by locking in a non-conference game for 80ish teams, and the non-bowl eligible teams have a much smaller list of schools to call to schedule their last non-conference game. This allows for bowl games to be played anywhere since the weather is great, it’s a holiday weekend and before classes start in many places, and gives every bowl game actual value.
The playoff teams would get paired into a bowl against a team they didn’t face in the playoff.
Bowls still exist and matter, playoff expands, we all get more meaningful football games.
November 5th, 2021 at 5:39 AM ^
I’m not a huge fan of expansion but I think I could live with this idea.
Conference champs would almost certainly get in. I suspect at some point you’d have to move rivalry week as teams that have their conference or division locked up may start to sit their starters at the end of the season.
November 4th, 2021 at 10:58 PM ^
I think 6 teams is good.
Expanding probably the only way we get in anyways.
November 4th, 2021 at 11:45 PM ^
Who is we? You are not a Michigan fan. Negative comment every time.
November 5th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
Nah I’d say about 40% of the time. Am I not wrong? You just don’t like hearing it.
November 4th, 2021 at 11:01 PM ^
Don't do it.
4 works fine.