CFB Team Rankings in the 2020 NFL Draft Based on Anticipated Player Contract Values

Submitted by Marvin on April 30th, 2020 at 12:36 PM

Spotrac.com assigns a contract value to each slot in the NFL draft order based on the NFL's collective bargaining agreement, the NFL salary cap, and the rookie compensation pool. This article took that information and created a ranking of all the CFB teams in this year's draft based on all their drafted players' total compensation. 

https://www.al.com/sports/2020/04/which-college-won-the-2020-nfl-drafts-bottom-line.html

Here are the top 8 teams based total anticipated compensation: 

1. LSU, $124058909

2, Alabama, $110947314

3. Ohio State, $108938856

4. Georgia, $64336937

5. Clemson, $57197618

6. Auburn, $50654176

7. Florida, $43817643

8. Michigan, $41072629

The dropoff between Ohio State and Georgia is striking. 

Blue in Paradise

April 30th, 2020 at 12:42 PM ^

This looks pretty highly correlated to recruiting rankings over the 2015-2017 cycles.  Auburn slightly outperformed and USC would have underperformed but the rest are pretty tightly aligned.

UP to LA

April 30th, 2020 at 2:03 PM ^

I like the sentiment! But, maize glasses aside, and acknowledging that I'm the dork who responds pedantically to a joke, the numbers here actually support the 4-team system: it's basically the top 3, then a sharp drop, and then a smooth distribution 4 through 10 (TCU and OU are right behind Michigan at 9 and 10).

Pedantic caveat to my own pedantry: there's also probably some playoff endogeneity here, with the Mark Davises of the world loading up on guys they saw on TV.

Gulogulo37

May 1st, 2020 at 3:19 AM ^

I agree. But it's also clear the super rich are getting way richer. I'm not just being a homer when I want new teams in there. It's sad how much I root for Oklahoma in the playoffs when they've been dominating the Big 12 for so long now.

Its funny. Moving to 4 teams actually made things harder to get into because most teams get a mulligan. Could you imagine a team like West Virginia almost going to the national championship game now? Seems impossible. Michigan is a top 10 program and yet so much despair. 

Bo Harbaugh

April 30th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^

Meh.  Opening it up to an 8 team playoff would incentivize other programs to bag more. Sure, you may get some more parity...8-10 contending programs instead of 4-5, but do you really believe UM stays in that 8-10.

I think it's more likely that some more SEC teams and Florida schools, and maybe Pac12 (A&M, Florida, Oregon, USC, FSU) start closing the gap via bagging, and UM, ND, PSU get pushed out of the top 10 if not willing to play the game.

oriental andrew

April 30th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^

The other thing to note here is that, although Michigan had the 2nd highest number of players drafted (LSU 14, osu and Michigan 10, Alabama 9), only two of our guys were drafted in the first 3 rounds, with 7 being 4th round or later. 

  • LSU had FIVE 1st rounders and 10 of their 14 drafted in the first 3 rounds. 
  • All 9 of Alabama's drafted players were gone by round 3, including 4 in the 1st. 
  • osu had 7 in the first 3 rounds
  • UGA had 3 in the first 3 rounds, then 1 each in rounds 4-7
  • Clemson had 4 in rounds 1-3, 2 in round 4, and 1 in round 7
  • Auburn had 3 of their 6 players drafted in the first 2 rounds.
  • Florida had 4 of their 7 drafted in the first 3 rounds

 

MGoStrength

April 30th, 2020 at 3:08 PM ^

The dropoff between Ohio State and Georgia is striking. 

Folks like to give UM crap for underachieving based on recruiting rankings.  UGA has underachieved just as much as UM.  Based on the team talent composite from 247 here are UGAs rankings and coinciding records:

2019: #3 12-2 (UM #11, 9-4)

2018: #3 11-3 (UM #8, 10-3)

2017: #4 13-2 (UM #7, 8-5)

2016: #6 8-5 (UM #8, 10-3) 

2015: #6 10-3 (UM #9, 10-3)

UM has averaged #8.6 in team talent the last 5 years and averaged a 9.4-3.6 season.  UGA has average #4.4 in team talent and the last 5 years and averaged a 10.8-3 season.  For all of their talent they are a combined 1-5 versus LSU & Bama.  The only difference between UGA & UM is UGA is not in the same division as Bama.  UGA is the Wiscy of the SEC.  UGA is what UM would be if UM played in B1G West.  They'd have one B1G title in 2016 over PSU and 3 division titles.