CFB: Six unbeatens - will any fall this weekend?

Submitted by Amazinblu on November 20th, 2023 at 8:46 AM

The final weekend of the regular season is upon us.  James Madison did not survive OT, and - as a result - six (6) teams now remain with an unblemished record.

As we all know, at least one team will fall this weekend.  Which team(s) so you think will fall from the ranks of the unbeaten?   Here’s the list – and their opponent.  The unbeatens are bolded with their AP ranking in parentheses.

  • Georgia (1) at Georgia Tech
  • Ohio State (2) at Michigan (3)
  • Michigan (3) hosting Ohio State (2)
  • Washington (4) hosting Washington State
  • Florida State (5) at Florida
  • Liberty (22) at UTEP

Enjoy.  Go Blue!

Football

MH20

November 21st, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^

Well, Harbaugh was always regarded as an excellent coach in all of his stops before Michigan. Norvell won a bunch of games in a mid-major conference and then started his FSU tenure horribly and was hated after 2021. Now he's suddenly the second coming off Bear Bryant.

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M_Born M_Believer

November 20th, 2023 at 8:52 AM ^

Ohio State (obviously), but Washington should be on upset alert....  Will it happen, I don't think so, but if you have to have me pick one outside Ohio State, I would say Washington...

Joined: 11/11/2009

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Perkis-Size Me

November 20th, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^

Well besides the obvious between Michigan and OSU, the only one that I'd say has a chance is FSU. I don't know what their backup QB situation looks like, but asking him to go on the road in a rivalry game against a team with nothing to lose could get pretty dicey. Florida isn't very good so my guess is that FSU will pull it out, but FSU's ceiling, even if they make the CFP, is now extremely limited. And FSU has had some close calls this year anyway. 

That said, if FSU loses the ACC title game to Louisville, that lets the door wide open for Texas to get back into the CFP picture. Assuming they don't lose in the Big XII title game. If they do, and if Georgia takes care of business in the SEC title game, then we could be looking at another scenario where the loser of The Game sneaks back in as the 4 seed. 

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ShadowStorm33

November 20th, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^

That said, if FSU loses the ACC title game to Louisville, that lets the door wide open for Texas to get back into the CFP picture. Assuming they don't lose in the Big XII title game. If they do, and if Georgia takes care of business in the SEC title game, then we could be looking at another scenario where the loser of The Game sneaks back in as the 4 seed. 

I guess I can't speak for the committee, but I'd put a 12-1 ACC champion Louisville above the 11-1 loser of The Game. I'll use OSU as the example (which we obviously hope is the case, but also because OSU would have a better resume at 11-1 than us IMO). They each have a win over ND, so that's essentially a wash (Louisville's is more impressive though). After that, OSU has a win over PSU, some uninspiring wins over mediocre teams, and a couple throttlings of bad teams. Louisville (again assuming 12-1) would have a win over FSU (would be clearly more impressive than PSU if not for the QB going down, but at worst a wash), plus wins over decent Duke, Miami and Kentucky teams. Louisville's loss to Pitt is BAD, probably the worst loss ever by a CFP contender, and OSU would have either the best or second-best loss (give or take Oregon at UW). But that loss would mean that OSU didn't even win its division, let alone the conference, whereas UL would be a conference champion (with an additional win). I think that gives them the edge, especially since the committee (rightly) seems to prioritize conference champs (unless we're talking about the SEC...).

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oriental andrew

November 20th, 2023 at 10:09 AM ^

That's a dicey one just because the loss to Pitt is SO bad (17 point loss to current #87 in SP+), but you could call it a hangover after beating notre dame. But that's a bad hangover.

The computers at this point much prefer osu (#3 SP+) to Louisville, which is still all the way down at #19. Louisville has an uphill battle, even if they win the ACC, especially with a 1-loss Big 12 champ Texas and undefeated or 1-loss Pac 12 champion in the mix. 

 

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Bill22

November 20th, 2023 at 9:10 AM ^

Michigan will win

OSU loses

FSU will beat Louisville in the ACC Champ game

Georgia will beat Alabama in the SEC Champ game

Washington will beat Oregon in the PAC Champ game

 

Final CFP:

(1) Georgia vs (4) Florida State in the Sugar Bowl

(2) Michigan vs (3) Washington in the Rose Bowl

 

 

 

Joined: 09/07/2016

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Perkis-Size Me

November 20th, 2023 at 9:49 AM ^

Just me personally, but I'd probably rather see Oregon get into the CFP over Washington. I have nothing against Washington at all, but let's just assume for the sake of argument that Michigan wins this Saturday and next:

Oregon would likely take the four seed in the CFP if they beat Washington in a rematch. At that point they are almost certainly matched up to take on Georgia. I think Oregon is much better built to take on Georgia than Washington is. They are a much more physical team, certainly so at the line of scrimmage, which is what you need if you want to stand any chance against Georgia. I really don't think Georgia would be able to bully Oregon like it would with Washington. Certainly not as easily. Plus there's the Dan Lanning factor, in that he knows how that Georgia team, specifically the defense operates, because he helped build it. 

I'd rather face a Georgia team that maybe gets a little beat up the week before in the semis, or somehow face Oregon. Washington feels like the kind of team that Georgia would go and boat race, but I also said that about OSU against Georgia last year so maybe I'm wrong. I'd definitely much rather face Washington than Oregon in any game, but I just don't think Washington has the beef at the LOS to stand up to Georgia like Oregon does. 

I guess I'm just looking for the path of least resistance for Michigan. 

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HAIL 2 VICTORS

November 20th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^

Fellow Bill55 Myself

FSU should handle Florida in the Swamp but new QB/Rivalry I will be watching (assuming I can watch anything after THE GAME) and my exhaustion win or lose.

 

Washington in the Apple Cup and the emotions of Washington leaving - high risk high reward offense - Huskies should win but again worth the watch.

As for the rest I refuse to look beyond this Saturday and fully expect to be screaming at my television no matter the results.

 

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RealElonMusk

November 20th, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^

OSU should not survive unbeaten (Michigan is 3.6 pts better in SP+ and the game is at home).  I think Michigan is truly the better team so absent ref fuckery I'm predicting a solid win for Michigan on Saturday.

I think there is a chance that Washington loses, the rest are safe until their conference championships.

Joined: 06/07/2019

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Perkis-Size Me

November 20th, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^

The one thing I'll say that I'm pleasantly surprised about over the last two weeks re: ref shenanigans is that Michigan has not been getting slapped with awful calls. Most of the calls they've gotten, and there have been few of them, have made sense and were probably the right calls. 

Yeah, the call on Graham this Saturday was iffy, but the refs were at least consistent. They didn't call targeting on Wilson earlier in the game, so not calling Graham for targeting at least put everything back to square one.

And truthfully, Graham should not have made that tackle. The ball had already left Tagovailoa's hands, and if Graham backs off, its fourth down, Maryland punts, and they never score that TD. 

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Blinkin

November 20th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^

If there's been a ref issue, it's been some no-calls.  Klatt called the refs out for a re-do kickoff when the ball didn't fall off the tee on video (even though the ref said it did).  They also missed a delay of game against Maryland that probably would have killed one of their drives, and a load of holding penalties (of the variety that should get called, especially on the Allar TD) against PSU.  

They're not calling phantom penalties on us which is encouraging, but it does seem like opponents are getting benefit of the doubt in some key moments.  I admit I'm biased but those examples were all pretty obvious and egregious no-calls.  

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HAIL 2 VICTORS

November 20th, 2023 at 10:23 AM ^

We need turnover bounces to go our way a 3rd week in a row.  We need Roman healthy for 4 quarters and so thankful he has made it to the game this year. We need a healthy enough (Whatever it takes) JJ able to throw outside the pocket.  We need our O-Line to be relatively healthy for this game.  We need Blake and Donovan to combine for 150 yards.

Home Field is huge

Turnovers-DUH!

Penalties (M is so good at this) - Keep your damn helmet on!

Holding called consistently (home field huge) for both sides.

Goal Line play calls that make sense.

Marvin Harrison CONTAINED make others beat us.

Michigan is deserving of the 5.5 spread and I like them by 10 - Michigan is a bigger threat to Michigan than Ohio.

 

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shags

November 20th, 2023 at 9:15 AM ^

Um . . . Michigan PLAYS Ohio State.  So . . . yes.

But I'm glad we're starting our Monday morning of Thanksgiving week with such an easy question.

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