CFB Risk Episode 27 – The first rule of Fight Club is…

Submitted by crg on February 21st, 2023 at 3:40 PM

CFB Risk Episode 27 – The first rule of Fight Club is…

Pre-Recap Announcements:

  • Here are the ways for how you can choose your level of involvement with the team – use only one method within the same turn:
    • Michigan Rebel Base:If you would like to see/discuss overall strategy and choose your daily mission from a list of approved targets, use the Discord link (https://discord.gg/DRQyjp56kP)
      • Note: if already using Discord, please do not change to another method.
    • If you want a simple order to follow without overthinking or hassle, use the new orders distribution website (http://www.whataremyorders.com/). 
    • For any new players or those that want to “go rogue” (or are having problems getting access to orders through the other options), feel free to hit any of these territories tonight to help the cause!
      • Buffalo (New York)
      • Miami Valley (Ohio)
      • Bowling Green (Ohio)
      • South Bend (Indiana)
      • West Lafayette (Indiana)

 

“I am Jack’s complete lack of surprise.” – some guy

The war grinds on into week number five and tensions are running high.  The weak have (mostly) been culled and the power players have asserted themselves.  osu, Wisconsin and Georgia Tech has basically formed their own alliance and are actively campaigning to push back other teams, enabling osu to take a strong lead in territory count, assisted by their “recruiting event” (we’ll get to that shortly). Meanwhile Texas A&M was able to reconstruct the DEATH STAR – now even stronger than the last time and solidly in second place in the standings. 

Yet the situation is not as dire as things sound.  Our team organization is far more robust than it was in the early days of the game and we have a strong foundation in the northern portion of the board.

Also keep in mind that the final “winner” for this game is the team holding the most number of territories when the clock strikes zero on Day 45.  We are now in 4th place, behind osu, A&M and Georgia Tech.  The game is still in a highly fluid state and we are only a few days into the second half… and we are known as a second half team.

Fortunately Michigan is *still* the most powerful team in the game in terms of participation and raw power and has done a reasonable job of maintaining that position, as you can see in these convenient plots:



If you glance at the player total trends a curious anomaly immediate stands out: on Day 25 osu had its large “recruiting event” in which a single post pasted on two Reddit messaging boards (that they had already recruited ~ Day 8 with relatively little response) supposedly generated almost 400 new players… even after the game moderators removed all the suspected “bots” from Friday’s outside attack on the game. To keep the game safe, the mods then started requiring all player moves to go through a ReCaptcha security check: nothing terribly inconvenient – merely about 5 seconds of clicking/tapping.  And afterwards on Day 26, that massive osu player bump? 


Gone. 

Not saying – just saying.

 

Anyway… we need to continue our growth to stay ahead in this game so if you haven't already - get involved!  If you already have, the get *someone else* involved!  Recruiting. Matters.

Here is the boilerplate information on regions again:

A quick explanation of “regions”, since we will be discussing them more and more going forward:

The game is moving into phases where teams will be competing to control entire “regions”, which are groupings of adjacent territories.  The map is divided into twenty regions, as shown below.  Just like in the classic Risk game, there are incentives to control whole regions – but in this game it is a mathematical bonus to *all* attack/defend odds in favor of teams holding regions (those bonuses are not limited to actions taken within held regions – they apply everywhere).


Controlling regions is good.  Preventing opponents from controlling regions is also good.

Got it?  Good.  Here is why it matters:


Those region bonus multipliers can make all the difference in this game; the right side of the chart shows what the adjusted stars are (with bonus effects included) – these are the stars that are actually going into battle today.  Here is where the negatives from last night can be seen.  Mixed news after last night:  osu lost both of their regions (hooray!) but Texas A&M now has four (welp.)  Wisconsin is still just osu’s toadie.

 

This would be a good time to have a high level view of the war: some way to visualize how things are progressing... like a map (now with added region boundaries and sea-routes, for your viewing pleasure).

You have to fight.

 

News from the fronts:

  • Canada: osu and Georgia Tech pushing from the east while Michigan mostly consolidating in the west.
  • Pacific NW:  Michigan consolidating here with some harassment from osu and Wisconsin.
  • US East coast: Mostly split between osu and GT, with occasional sniping between them (GT cost osu a region).
  • Greater Midwest: Almost exclusively osu vs Michigan.  Shocking result that no one could have foreseen, to be sure.
  • US Southeast: Tennessee still boring.  Alabama slowly being eaten by GT.
  • US Rockies & West coast: Oklahoma alive again (for now).  Mostly a jumbled mess with Wisconsin trying to take over.
  • US Southwest & Mexico:  AGGIE DEATH STAR back online.  Oh joy.
  • Caribbean: osu has killed off LSU and almost secured this entire region if not for some more GT sniping.

A final reminder: it is strongly recommended to join the Michigan Discord server and coordinate with our friendly team leaders for assignments/orders, but the new orders website is also a good option.  This is how to *most effectively* use your attack & defend moves to get us closer to actually winning the game.  However… fighting for your school, your team and your home is always a good thing, even if you have your own ideas about how to do that.  In the end, it’s still a game and the purpose is to have fun.

CFB Risk Top 25 Team Standings

We are now down to 11 surviving teams in the game from the original 130, with some not likely to last much longer.  Final rankings are beginning to take shape.  Here is where they stand thus far (teams are ranked by # of territories first, followed by a mix of metrics examining how efficiently they used their players & stars:

1.     (an) Ohio State (46 territories)

2.    Texas A&M (43 territories)

3.    Georgia Tech (30 territories)

4.    Michigan (26 territories)

5.    Wisconsin (8 territories)

6.    Alabama (8 territories)

7.    Tennessee (7 territories)

8.    Nebraska (6 territories)

9.    Iowa State (4 territories)

10.  Oklahoma (4 territories)

11.  Texas (2 territories)

12.  LSU (killed Day 26)

13.  Florida (killed Day 24)

14.  Oregon (killed Day 23)

15.  Hawaii (killed Day 18)

16.  Stanford (killed Day 16)

17.  USC (killed Day 14)

18.  Washington (killed Day 13)

19.  Georgia (killed Day 12)

20.  Notre Dame (killed Day 11)

21.  Virginia Tech (killed Day 11)

22.  UCF (killed Day 11)

23.  Minnesota (killed Day 10)

24.  Baylor (killed Day 10)

25.  South Carolina (killed Day 10)

 

So remember to drink your Ovaltine, submit your move before 10:30pm tonight and have fun storming the castle!

 

Steps To Play Every Day

(1) Sign up for a reddit.com account if you don’t have one already

(2) Visit collegefootballrisk.com – Click Sign in with Reddit – Select Michigan as your team

3) Join the Michigan Risk discord by going to https://discord.gg/DRQyjp56kP (this is now a permanent link, so there should not be problems accessing it) OR (get your orders from http://www.whataremyorders.com/. Don't do both)

(4) Go to the "vetting" channel and type in your MGoBlog username and Reddit username.

(5) Once vetted, get your orders from the "orders" channel.

(6) Return to collegefootballrisk.com – Click on the blinking "target" icon at the bottom of the page (3rd button from the right), and then click on the territory you're attacking or defending.

(7) Talk trash with your fellow Wolverines as we prepare for tonight's roll.

How Does the Game Work?

It is up to each team to recruit players and coordinate moves. You can choose to defend any territory that your team currently holds or attack any adjacent territory. A "roll" happens each evening to calculate which teams have won which territories that turn based on the moves that were made by individual players. The ultimate goal is to conquer as much of the map as possible for your team. There are a number of different ways to do this, such as through recruiting players in sheer numbers or forming alliances with other teams.

 

Previous Recaps

Day 0 intro: College Football Risk is BACK - Season 3 is now LIVE!

Day 1 recap: College Risk Again!!! Sign up.... 1st in the books!

Day2 recap: No update

Day 3 recap: No update

Day 4 recap: CFB Risk Day 4: IT BEGINS

Day 5 recap: CFB Risk Day 5 - And THIS is Why They Nerfed Us

Day 6 recap: CFB Risk Day 6 - This Feels a Lot Like Real Life (Sparty Gon' Die)

Day 7 recap: CFB Risk Day 7 - F*cking Sparty (They Still Gon' Die)

Day 8 recap: CFB Risk Day 8 - WE NEED YOU TO AVENGE THE ORANGE BOWL (also, sparty's dead)

Day 9 recap: CFB Risk Day 9 - We Kicked Georgia Out of the North -- Now We Go South

Day 10 recap: CFB Risk Day 10 – The King in the North! (also, sorry about that Penn State)

Day 11 recap: CFB Risk Day 11 – ANN ARBOR HAS BEEN TAKEN!! THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!

Day 12 recap: CFB Risk Day 12 – It’s Groundhog Day…again (also, Notre Dame is finally dead)

Day 13 recap: CFB Risk Day 13 – NOW I HAVE A MACHINE GUN HO-HO-HO

Day 14 recap: CFB Risk Day 14 – EPISODE XIV: THE AGGIE MENACE

Day 15 recap: CFB Risk Day 15 – You Come at the King, You Best Not Miss

Week 2 recap: CFB Risk Week 2 Recap - I'm Back....and I'm Annoyed

Day 16 recap: CFB Risk Day 16 – WELCOME TO THUNDERDOME, WISCONSIN

Day 17 recap: CFB Risk Day 17 – WISCONSIN ON THE RUN

Day 18 recap: CFB Risk Day 18 - No One Likes Us, We Don't Care

Day 19 recap: CFB Risk Day 19 – YO, LISTEN UP HERE’S A STORY ABOUT A LITTLE GUY WHO LIVES IN A BLUE WORLD

Day 20 recap:  CFB Risk Day 20 - The Michigan Rogue Force (Read for Orders)

Week 3 recap:  CFB Risk Week 3 Recap - Risk Bot! And I'm Seeing Boosted Stars

Day 21 recap:  CFB Risk Day 21 – WE’RE GOING IN. WE’RE GOING IN FULL THROTTLE.

Day 22 Recap: CFB Risk Day 22 – Third time’s a charm.

Day 23 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 23 - A New Hope: Last Night's Skywalker

Day 24 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 24 – DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS (RIP Oregon)

Day 25 Recap: CFB Risk Episode 25 - In West Philadelphia, Born and Raised (F*ck OSU)

Day 26 (part 1) Recap:  CFB Risk Day 26* – EPISODE XXVI: ATTACK OF THE DRONES

Day 26 (part 2) Recap:  CFB Risk Episode $%*@....Error....Keanu Surprised Face....Verification Needed

Week 4 Recap: CFB Risk Week 4 Recap: Screw OSU and Its Clone Army

 

Harbaugeddon

February 21st, 2023 at 4:04 PM ^

As the strongest team in terms of raw stars, at what point do we stop worrying about the other teams and start building a Death Star of our own? 
 

It is kind of embarrassing that with this many people participating we don’t even control a single region. Let’s get a firm lock down on the West and Central Canada regions and go from there. 

Moleskyn

February 21st, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^

This is a challenge of diplomacy at this point. We have the strongest team, but we've been pressed on multiple fronts from the beginning, in ways that others have not. I'm surprised that OSU has managed to forge an alliance with Wisconsin AND GT; the fact that we don't appear to have any allies is glaring at this stage, and will absolutely prevent us from winning. 

Cam

February 21st, 2023 at 4:40 PM ^

We're getting our asses kicked. Is Cornwallis leading this team? Our generals need to be sent to the Dry Tortugas for Neglect of Duty.

DuBuc

February 21st, 2023 at 4:43 PM ^

Our strategy doesn't make a ton of sense.  Teams 1, 3, 5 are allied and are all attacking us and so.. we are preoccupied with preventing the #2 team from winning. Texas A&M doesn't border us.  If they take the lead they become a big problem for Wisconsin and OSU, who will have to divert resources from us.  OSU may very well decide to lose the game rather than let us win it but why would we make that same decision about Texas A&M?  All of our resources should go to winning Canada and the midwest.  Nothing against Texas A&M.  Heck, I'd ally with A&M.  When OSU is under real pressure from the South maybe they cease fire with us.  Wisconsin can get eliminated.

Rabbit21

February 21st, 2023 at 5:05 PM ^

Seems like they've made that shift.  

Harass the Aggies to keep them from accumulating regions, but focus efforts on Wisconsin and OSU to nail down some regions and increase power.  Problem is we need some other teams to go against the Aggies and the interest just doesn't seem to be there.

AWAS

February 21st, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^

The real threat is the region bonuses.  If we have no allies, we must at least disrupt the regional control of others and keep the bonuses out of the game.  Don't let anyone earn bonus stars and offset our fundamental advantage.

OSU has the Caribbean dominated with no real way of attacking it, and many territories in the mid Atlantic that are out of reach. A&M even moreso has territories that are out of reach and regions that are well protected.  

If everyone is attacking us, then we must attack everywhere we can prevent the other teams from earning more stars.

Westside Wolverine

February 21st, 2023 at 10:15 PM ^

This is what is wrong with our strategy. We are playing like we are protecting a lead and trying to prevent others from rising up against us. We need a core set of territories that allows us to lock down a region and then branch out. All of your points are valid for OSU and A&M - they need to worry about each other and prevent the other from holding regions. That is not our role when we are relatively weak. 

TruBluMich

February 21st, 2023 at 6:31 PM ^

Looking at the odds map tells you everything you need to know.  While all the other teams are pretty much concentrated on the territories they need to protect or attack, we are fighting all over the map. They are attacking where a win isn't going to open 5 new attack points or is going to break up a region.