CFB - It's time we talk about the reality of both OSU and UM in
Nothing I want more than to beat the Bucks next weekend, ruing their playoff chances, and win the B1G.
That said, with the UT loss, the reality of just 1 SEC team in the playoff has become much more realistic. Crazy enough, and I hate to say it, there is actually a path for Bama to get in here as a 2 loss SEC team.
I could easily see USC, TCU or both losing a game going forward.
If UGA beats LSU, we're looking at 3 spots left for
UM, OSU, Pac12 champion, Big 12 champion, Clemson.
Things are getting nutty. Today's win may end up being more important than we could have ever expected.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:03 AM ^
UNC lost today to a hapless Georgia Tech squad so there goes another “quality win” opportunity
November 20th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
ACC football is what people claim B1G basketball is every year. They're a bunch of above average to decent teams that beat up on each other but still have multiple teams hanging out in the back end of the top 25
November 19th, 2022 at 11:05 PM ^
Brace yourself for an ESPN led campaign to get 2 loss Bama into Playoff ahead of 1 loss Mich./OSU.The 1 and only 2nd SEC team with a legit case for Playoff is LSU if they beat Georgia for SEC Title.
November 20th, 2022 at 1:26 AM ^
They've done it to us before.
November 20th, 2022 at 8:18 AM ^
Bama is out. Best win got devalued with Ole Miss getting blown out by Arkansas - chance is ole miss won’t be ranked. Which means they’d have zero top 25 wins being their 2nd best win is 4 loss Texas.
November 20th, 2022 at 8:38 AM ^
If we lose the game the season is over. I can't stand these 1-loss hypotheticals.
November 20th, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
It's already started, but AFAICS only SI and CBS Sports are involved. Both ran "Bielma angry" stories about Bert's whining.
Run with me here for a second. Even if he has a point about a no-call bad officiating happens all the time. Why bother making an article out of it? Well, that would spread fear, uncertainty, and doubt about Michigan, which will be handy if they need to get shoved back to 5/6/7/8 in a lose-to-OSU scenario.
Easy, right? :)
November 19th, 2022 at 11:10 PM ^
I don't think TCU or USC will lose before the playoffs, although they certainly could (USC could lose tonight). I think they will make the playoffs with Georgia and UM or OSU.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
USC must still play Notre Dame, who are red-hot right now. USC must also play the Pac-12 championship game. I can easily see USC taking a 2nd loss.
#GoBlue
November 19th, 2022 at 11:16 PM ^
With a defense this bad USC is very susceptible to getting beat by ND or whomever they would play in the Pac 12 champ if they win tonight.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:08 AM ^
November 20th, 2022 at 2:58 AM ^
TCU and USC might both be underdogs in their conference championship games. Not to mention neither has a sure win next week
November 20th, 2022 at 9:18 AM ^
Massey's current projections are:
- TCU 24, Iowa St. 21 (59% w.p.)
- Notre Dame 33, USC 31 (47% w.p.)
- Kansas St. 31, TCU 27 (41% w.p.)
- Oregon 35, USC 34 (49% w.p.)
That's a 94% chance at least one loses and a 58% chance both do.
November 20th, 2022 at 4:45 PM ^
I hope one of those scenarios comes to pass. I've been thinking it would hit midnight for TCU for weeks now, though. It'll be fun to watch what happens.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:14 PM ^
Tonight's results, even without the Southern Cal game completed yet, have definitely improved UM's chances of getting into the CFP if UM loses a close game to OSU.
Tennessee was one of the losses UM absolutely needed if UM is to get into the CFP with a loss to OSU.
UM still needs Southern Cal to take a loss.
LSU has 2 losses. No team has ever made the CFP with 2 losses, besides - LSU still must play GA in the SEC champ game. LSU will finish the season with 3 losses.
GA, OSU, TCU and UM in the CFP is a realistic option.
#GoBlue
November 19th, 2022 at 11:54 PM ^
I wouldn't be so sure about LSU being done. They are dominating...checks notes...UAB in Baton Rouge right now.
November 20th, 2022 at 10:17 AM ^
You honestly thinking LSU is going to defeat consistently #1 ranked, undefeated Georgia in the SEC champ game??? No way.
LSU will finish with 3 losses. It's inescapable.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
Tinfoil hat time: SEC will incentivize Georgia to lose in the conference championship game so they can get 2 teams in the playoff.
November 20th, 2022 at 2:41 AM ^
It depends on how bad the loss is. If we were to lose to OSU on some ref bullshit or something, then I hope we get in. If we get our doors blown off(or blow off their doors) neither loser should get in.
November 20th, 2022 at 3:38 AM ^
Exactly. Frankly, if it is not a close loss, personally I think Michigan would be better off playing in the Rose Bowl than being overmatched against Georgia again.
November 20th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
I don't think we would be over-matched this year, if we get some key guys healthy. As it stands with our current injury situation, yeah...
November 19th, 2022 at 11:17 PM ^
You can't spell Citrus without UT.
This SC (ntSC) team could beat Clemson next week. And Clemson still has UNC. Even so, there's no way a 1-loss Clemson gets in over 1-loss M because they got embarrassed by ND.
SC (ytSC) isn't out of the woods yet against UCLA and has a much improved ND next week. This feels like the more important second loss to ensure M is in the CFP if they lose next week or in the B1G championship (pending TCU gacking one of their last 2 games).
I really like their chances to get in even with a loss.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:19 PM ^
Agreed. UM's chances of making the CFP after a close loss to OSU increased quite a bit tonight.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:11 AM ^
No way? There is a potential scenario where OSU embarrasses Michigan. Are you BKFinesting your prediction?
November 20th, 2022 at 8:01 AM ^
Exactly why I’m worried about. osu has had next week’s outing circled for the past year, as have their fans. The mental and athletic fortitude we’ll need to summon to compete must be 100% on point next week. Expect them to score at least 30 points against us as a floor. Can we score more than 30 against them? With that said, I like how we have responded to setbacks like being down after big plays. We just need to stay tough because when they turn a trick in the shoe, shit gets loud and demoralizing on another level of discouragement. Our guys can certainly hang and excel, if everyone absolutely BRINGS IT. I’d also imagine that osu feels over confident they will crush us next weekend (based on our showing against IL), which is where I’d rather have them. We need to play with an enthusiasm unknown to mankind that elevates our collective talent to its potential (a John Wooden thing, from what my uncle told me yesterday). This is where The coaching staff can again prove they’re superior to day & co’s born on third mentality.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:18 PM ^
Too bad the UCLA defense is booty. Can’t defend the run or the pass.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:20 PM ^
Beat Ohio
November 19th, 2022 at 11:33 PM ^
It comes down to TCU and USC.
If one loses...the B1G gets 2 teams.
So close to locking it up TODAY, but TCU squeaked by and USC looks like it'll hold on.
But if you would've said going in that Tennessee was going to lose...Kevin Warren has to take that one.
USC and TCU still have games they can lose ahead.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:16 AM ^
Clemson is also a threat. The committee could decide the ACC champ trumps the Michigan/OSU loser.
Would need 2 of USC, TCU, and Clemson to lose to feel confidant. All 3 losing would be chaos.
November 20th, 2022 at 1:02 AM ^
I suppose you're correct, but I just don't think they're better than Michigan or OSU, flat out.
You're penalizing a B1G team for losing a game to a top 3 team in the country. While Clemson lost to Syracuse and a UNC win doesn't look nearly as good today as it did 8 hour ago.
But they'd have the extra data point, so I suppose you're correct. I just wouldn't do it.
Also, if we want to be technical, the B1G needs LSU to lose to Georgia as well.
A 2 loss LSU with a win over #1 Georgia is going to jump teams.
November 20th, 2022 at 3:04 AM ^
Clemson would be the worst and least deserving team to ever make the playoff. The ACC by any metric does not deserve to be called a Power 5 conference
That said, I don't put it past the committee to put them in on brand name alone
November 20th, 2022 at 7:51 AM ^
2015 MSU still feels disrespkted by this comment
November 20th, 2022 at 3:24 PM ^
You said in a different thread last week that only TCU had to win to keep 1-loss OSU out and no one else mattered. I mean, you were wrong, but glad to see you’re educable.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:34 PM ^
Clemson sucks dead ding dongs and USC has to play at least one team with real defense.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:40 PM ^
Let's go bruins!
November 19th, 2022 at 11:44 PM ^
Not going to happen.
November 19th, 2022 at 11:49 PM ^
Dtr is terrible. Three pics at the end of the two halves. UCLA could have locked M into the CFP tonight.
Prepare thyselves…I think ND winning next week is a good thing.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:11 AM ^
ditto. WTF UCLA - you had one job to do!
November 19th, 2022 at 11:52 PM ^
Really weird that ESPN’s headline is “Michigan, TCU save college football playoff hopes” and the article says Michigan and TCU both ‘kept their playoff chances alive’. I don’t think there’s anyone anywhere who thinks losing today would have ended our playoff hopes
November 20th, 2022 at 8:57 AM ^
I've posted something like this idea elsewhere, but I don't think it's necessarily weird.
If you believe that ESPN wants two SEC teams in the playoff, it would be smart for them to subtly smear UM and TCU. (I suppose they think OSU throttled Maryland. It could also be that they can't see OSU as anything other than a perennial contender and honorary SEC member.)
I have no basis for any of this.
November 20th, 2022 at 11:33 AM ^
I'm inclined to believe it's just lazy journalism, instead of a conspiracy to angle for a two-loss SEC team in the playoffs. Occam's razor and all that.
Speaking of lazy journalism, it's unbelievable the number of typos and other assorted errors you find in articles these days, even from respectable (or at least formerly respectable) outlets. And I'm not just talking typos, missing words, etc. I regularly find articles with sentences and even entire paragraphs repeated. I guess editors don't exist anymore...
November 19th, 2022 at 11:58 PM ^
I think you can pencil in UGA, a 1 loss TCU, and the winner of the game. If any of those aren't conference champs i think they still are in. If UGA loses to LSU then LSU gets in over a 2 loss Pac12 champ. But a 2 loss Pac12 champ gets in over a non champ LSU, and over a 1 loss Clemson. Over the loser of the game? I think so. reasoning below.
The big 10 may not be deep but M and OSU have dominated most of their opponents. UGA has dominated most of their opponents and the SEC is probably pretty good. The Big 12 looks pretty deep, and while TCU hasn't dominated if they end the season with 1 loss that's quality. The PAC 12 is deep as well but has beaten itself up, and Oregon gives us a data point that they are far behind UGA.
The PAC 12 has also played ND tough. Cal played them close, Stanford beat them, and they'll be playing USC next weekend. ND lost to OSU, but then absolutely handled the two best teams in the ACC.
From the ND data points i feel comfortable saying the ACC champ has done considerably less than the PAC 12 or Big Ten East champ. Unless the ACC-SEC challenge goes crazy, i feel comfortable saying that the SEC is superior clearly to the ACC and Pac12 at the top. The Big ten and PAC 12 are also superior to the ACC. The Big12 is hard to slot, and TCU has not dominated but also hasn't yet taken a blowout loss.
If USC loses to ND they lose their argument over Clemson. If they lose the Pac12 'ship they're a 2 L non champ - nope. So basically it's Oregon/Utah/Washingtong vs the loser of the game for the last spot. Oregon and the game loser both would see a rematch brewing. Utah or Washington wouldn't. If possible avoid the rematch to set up a better playoff, is my opinion.
But hell, TCU could lose to ISU, Clemson could biff it, so could UGA and LSU, heck anything could happen. I love speculating but there's a lot of football to eff it all up first
November 20th, 2022 at 12:08 AM ^
Tl;dr
good god man, war and peace was an easier read!
November 20th, 2022 at 3:07 AM ^
If Oregon wins the Pac 12 they will not get in. 2 losses, one by 46 to another playoff team, would be way too hard to explain
November 20th, 2022 at 12:10 AM ^
You know what sucks…Michigan will NOT get in with a loss to OSU. But OSU WILL get in with a loss to Michigan.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:15 AM ^
Really think it depends on other factors. If usc, TCU, and Clemson all lose for example, then I think we’d get in with a close loss for sure
November 20th, 2022 at 7:32 AM ^
Hawaii won last night bolstering out OOC SOS - hahaha
November 20th, 2022 at 12:14 AM ^
Honest question: Do we really want to back into the CFP after a loss as the 4 seed, and have to play 1 seed Georgia?
Two crushing losses to Georgia in a row could kill the program momentum we are building.
We might be better off playing in the Rose Bowl with a good chance to win against a defensively-challenged Pac 12 team.
We have already checked off the "Made the CFP" box. The next milestone is to get a win in the CFP. We're not going to get that win as the 4-seed against 1-seed Georgia.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:28 AM ^
The CFP is the coveted ending spot of the journey in today's game. I'd rather have a loss there than a win in the Rose Bowl.
November 20th, 2022 at 12:38 AM ^
Not sure about that. I wouldn't want to get in that Notre Dame zone where we are just repeated fodder for a first round CFP loss.