Caleb Houstan declines Combine Invite, clearing the way for UM return?
Interesting news here, apparently Houstan has declined an invite, making it highly likely that he will return next season.
Honestly, who knows what's going on. This seems fluid.
Also reported by Alejandro Zúñiga on twitter.
Promises are virtually always kept. Sometimes you hear if a story of a team regretting making a promise because a player fell. A lot more often you fear of a team trading up to draft a guy with a promise from a lower team. If you renege on a draft promise, agents will drag the team through the mud, so you’d better get ready to see few players work out for you in the coming years if you want to be Machiavellian for an evening.
Also, even in the one publicly known story of a team breaking a promise in the last decade, the player was ultimately drafted about five spots later, so the fall wasn’t big.
As for not working out, that’s the player’s side of the promise. The team drafting him wants to hide him do that others won’t jump and grab him earlier. If he works out, he might go higher, but then he’s broken the promise and risks falling if the team who gave the promise starts to like someone else more.
Okay. Reading all these comments and the other gazillion comments, it's now clear.
• Houstan is obviously staying at Michigan.
• Houstan is obviously leaving Michigan.
AND
• We don't know (but it's fun to speculate).
Dylan of UMHoops pointed out that Caleb going to the combine would most likely hurt his draft stock as opposed to help it because a bad showing would potentially cause him to lose whatever 5 star shininess he still has to NBA teams. Not sure if that’s the reason but it was a hypothetical.
Tim McCormick said that EJ Liddell hurt himself in the eyes of NBA scouts after declaring last summer. I have no idea what Houstan is thinking, but you can lower your draft stock at the NBA events.
If a franchise suspects that, how would that not be a massive red flag?
Not saying this is the case here but generally: Avoiding scrutiny is a red flag, but sometimes the discovery is worse.
If a team really did give him a draft promise that would be a sign that they have a lot of faith in his ability to improve.
I would think if he did come back we'd see quite a jump in his performance.
Caleb is suiting up for Saul Goodman next season
Houstan will be DBA as Bonds, Bail Bonds.
Maybe he has an injury keeping him out?
That was my thought. Otherwise why even go through this process.
The sophomore leap or even a noticeable jump has been a long trend for Michigan players both under JB and JH. Darius Morris, Trey Burke, Nik Stauskas, Caris LeVert, Moe Wagner, DJ Wilson, Zavier Simpson, Franz Wagner, and Hunter Dickinson.
No reason to think that Caleb can add his name to that list. Given the two in the draft, I would expect Caleb to have the better chance to greatly improve than Moussa. With Hunter, Moussa plays pretty out of place at the 4. Unless he can develop a good midrange and an at least functional outside shot, I would expect much of what we saw this year (which would be fine). I’m not sure his hands can make the needed improvement however.
No reason to think that Caleb can add his name to that list.
I see several reasons he can, some of which you aptly noted.
one missing apostrophe and one missing letter can derail an entire statement...
It remains to be seen if JH has the ability to develop players like JB did. In that regard, I surely do miss JB.
We are just gonna keep rebuilding every year under Howard arent we.
Too bad I played like shit against one of the worst Elite 8 teams ever.
Quit drinking and go to bed.
Hard to see why he wouldn’t go through the process without it being a guarantee. If he really bowed out to come back a return announcement would likely happen soon, if it doesn’t then would have to think he gone.
Only takes one team to believe in his projection. Obviously would have been great to see more at Michigan but his resume does include the prep and international career that made him a five star.
Rafael Barlowe of NBA Big Board went to see him work out today. Expect an interview and piece in him in the coming days.
Troy weaver must already have gamE a guarantee ! Cade and Caleb show
Givony is suggesting he has a promise. Others have noted that Givony has a connection to Houstan (and have even insinuated that this is the reason Houstan is so highly regarded)
If Givony’s tweet is complete speculation, I find it odd he’s coming to completely different conclusions about players in the same situation unless he has other info
That leads me to believe it is not complete speculation
I think the reason this isn't odd is Caleb is a 5 Star that some pre-season mocks had going in the lottery and Murray is not.
It's Givony, he has other info. It was you that wildly speculated and condescended to others who thought he might have a promise.
I don't know the first thing about Nikola Jovic but would have no problem spending a second round pick on him just because he plays for Mega Mozzart. MEGA MOZZART.
As for Houstan, my wild guess is that he's got a 2nd round promise and that's good enough for him, he wants to be a pro. But that's purely a guess.
If the feelings on this board are anything like the rest of the Michigan fanbase I don't know why Caleb would want to come back. You'd think he as one arm and its a gimpy one based on how this fan base talks about him.
He was a 90th percentile freshman among high majors in Torvik's PRPG. He was far better than other similarly touted players like Emoni Bates or Peyton Watson. He wasn't great, but he was at least good for a freshman. An NBA team that's been watching him for a while may say that's good enough to prove he's on track in his development
I looked at PRPG against high-major last year and he was ranked 29th, which is solid but not remarkable and is below a number of other freshmen who certainly aren't considering the NBA. And while Bates underwhelmed (though he was injured for long chunks of the year), including someone like Watson (who was on a stacked UCLA team and playing behind a couple of NBA-level upperclassmen) isn't particularly fair because on a better team Houstan wouldn't have been sent out there for 30+ minutes a game. So some of his countable success this year was just because he played a lot.
I think he will be a solid player and if an NBA team wants to take a run at his potential they can but (to me) he's not a Moussa-type with freak athleticism. I wish him luck if he goes but this isn't even a Jordan Poole situation wherein you could point to steady improvement and NBA-level skill over multiple years.
i dont think for most fans that he was bad. its running a risk reward scenario that says this kid was a 5 star standout high school player who could very well end up a high 1st round pick if he shows his potential in the college game and continues to develop, but is considering going pro after a perfectly average freshman year in which he looked inconsistent in a lot of phases. His choosing to go pro and get developed in the NBA would be a disappointment for those fans, and thus they are pointing out the flaws (from their perspective) in choosing to go this route. We're all adjusting to the new norms of college football and basketball and with Juwan going after these blue chip guys this is even more unfamiliar to the fanbase who got used to the 2-4 year development of players under Beilein.
I prefer he comes back but if this is true I will enjoy a good long laugh at the expense of the armchair experts who claimed he is undraftable and has to come back.
I’d wager this most likely means he has some major interest and team workouts will be more lucrative for him. The holes in his game (defense mostly) would be exposed in the combine and the parts of his game where he exceeds (shooting) will be highlighted in individual workouts.
This would make the most sense. Houstan would probably kill draft workouts
Maybe his agent is smart and doesn't want him to go through the athleticism testing numbers. Can you imagine what his no-step vert, lane agility, and bench press numbers would be?
I will leave it to the experts to decide if Houstan and Diabate are ready for the NBA, but this shouldn't be a huge shock to the board. We wanted the 5 star kids and usually you only get them for a year whether they are ready for the league or not. Losing 3 kids from our monster recruiting class hurts so hopefully we can keep recruiting at a high level.
Five Star kids are great and can make an instant impact, but I think the NBA does itself a disservice drafting kids before they are ready. Weber is a HOF-level guy and he was in college for 2 years. Jalen and Juwan were both in college for 3 years.
I have no memory of Jamal Crawford.
I will probably forget Diabate and Houstan if they go pro. I think they made our team much better this year, but they didn't have any history making moments that I can remember.
NIL helps keep kids in school a bit, but the draw of an NBA career/money is greater. I think the NBA would do itself a service by setting up a stay-in-school fund. Identify the top [50] players each year an pay them a million each ($2 million each?) to stay in school. If someone can get a lottery pick status or is out of elligibility they go pro. If you're a project player you stay in school and develop there. Maybe there are special summer camps for those guys. End of the day the NBA gets a crop of players who are famous from the NCAA tournament and already have brands.
Mitch McGary would have been a legend if he had two more years. Now he's famous for "Win the Game" and bowling.
I wii never forget his play in the tournament that led to a final 4. The way he dismantled Syracuse in that final 4 game was beautiful.
I don't disagree with anything you posted. I just think this is how it goes with 5 star kids. Look at home many kids Kentucky loses each year. Most of them don't have a legacy with the school and then they get a whole bunch of new kids the next year. The NBA is basically a developmental league. Outside the top 5 picks, they draft on potential. It sucks for fans because about the time I learn someone's name they seem to be leaving college for the NBA.
That's the thing I'm getting at. Fans want to know the players. The NBA wants players who fans know and want to watch. Players want money but they also want to win big games and to have legacies. The current system seems to minimize the player and fan experience.
Maybe the NBA sees the NCAA as competition and wants the college game to be worse. The whole strategy seems shortsighted.
Hope he can / does return to the fold!
Maybe he got an NLI deal. Or he has a lucrative deal lined up in the G League (or overseas). That seems more likely than an NBA franchise promising a draft spot. Maybe they'd promise him a spot on the summer team.
He's a perfect development player for a team like the Heat, Warriors, or the Spurs. They all have late round picks and are good at developing young players--unlike perennial lottery teams like Pistons, Pelicans, Magic, Knicks, and Kings.
Houstan has great form, great size, can play solid defense, and is young. I'd pick him over the often late first mock picks of EJ Liddell, Patrick Baldwin (unimpressive in 1 year playing with his dad at small school) or Walker Kessler (Is he better than Hunter?).
The concern I'd have with Houstan is that his issues guarding 3s in college likely means he'd struggle somewhat guarding 4s in the pros, and his inability to really score or shoot off the dribble/not set in college is something also tied a bit to athleticism and strength. The latter will come (you assume) as he ages but if he struggles with his handle and can't get by guys then you're really hoping he's just a dead-eye shooter from outside when set, and at least this year he wasn't quite at that level.
I do agree he's a good developmental player and if a team has the time and draft capital to wait on him to develop it might be worth a late first/early second, but honestly I think he might have been a bit overrated coming out of HS and he needs to show some maturation physically and in his game before I'd take a flyer on him late in the first.
Like Houstan.... I will be declining any offer to attend the NBA Combine.
There will be no further comment from my camp.
cleveland is owned by a sparty. they promised him a draft spot. houstan stays in the draft. cleveland doesn't draft him. houstan then can't go back to UM. the whole intent is to screw with UM.
Steinbrenner style huh?
I like how you drew that one up!
Forgive my ignorance of the process here, but I can't figure out why someone in his position would withdraw from the combine.
I know it's been suggested that his withdrawal may indicate a first round promise from a team. But, why would he withdraw from the draft in that circumstance? Wouldn't he still want the exposure to other teams who might draft him higher or provide a back-up if the promise falls through?
Aside from avoiding injury (which is a low risk, but not zero) is there any reason for someone in his position not to work out at the combine? It's not as if his abilities are a "secret". And, assuming that he's withdrawing because he has a promise, doesn't that just convey to other drafting teams that there is a "promise" in place--info that other teams could use to their advantage?
Someone else already provide some pretty good reasoning. One of Houstan's weaknesses is athleticism which will be exposed against the elite athletes at the combines. His strength is his shooting which can shine in private workouts.
Thanks. I guess that sort of makes sense. But, it's not like his lack of athleticism is a secret, right? If it is, we should lock down this board (kidding).