Bucky's 5th Quarter - Grading Badgers' Iowa Game
Bucky's 5th Quarter grades the Wisconsin offense, defense, special teams and coaching.
Not too happy with the offense, coach Chryst and the indifference of the Student Section.
Elated with the Badger defense tho.
Coaching: C-
Offensive mental errors and ball security continue to be an issue. Hornibrook’s pick-sixes were Iowa’s most potent offensive weapon, putting the Badgers into a hole less than two minutes into the game and giving the Hawkeyes new life in the third quarter. Taylor fumbled with seven minutes left in the first half, giving Iowa the ball at midfield. Hornibrook had a poor exchange with back-up center Jason Erdmann after Tyler Biadasz left with a leg injury, though Hornibrook recovered the fumble.
Penalties in key spots hurt. A false-start penalty by tight end Kyle Penniston inside the one-foot line in the first quarter backed Wisconsin up, costing the Badgers four points when they could not convert the longer first down. Left guard Jon Dietzen had a very costly unsportsmanlike conduct penalty in the third quarter, leading to Hornibrook’s second pick-six just a play later. Erdmann had a holding call in the fourth quarter that negated a Taylor touchdown.
Defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s defense was all over the field, bottling up the Hawkeyes and answering the call every time the offense turned the ball over.
Overall: C+
For as dominant as the defense’s performance was, the offense’s miscues were a cause for major concern. A well-played offensive game would have gone a long way towards addressing some of the questions about Wisconsin’s suitability as a playoff team. Despite the final score, many questions still remain.
Two really good defenses hit the field next weekend. I think it will be a low scoring matchup.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:13 PM ^
Dline needs to get to Hornibrook and the Oline has to have some semblance of pass protection.
Michigan can win this. It just won’t be pretty.
Hopefully Taylor fumbles it a few times to help us out!
November 13th, 2017 at 2:19 PM ^
My keys to the game are Kinnel making tackles in space, Bush holding up, and winning the INT/turnover battle.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:20 PM ^
If the defense can play like they can, if they can get early turnovers, this will be a game down to the wire. They're gonna get their points on us i'm sure but we need to take out the crowd and gain momentum early to win this one.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^
This may be a game where we hope the weather is bad. According to S&P+ Michigan has a better rush offense and rush defense than Wisconsin. Also about equal in punt success rate and Michigan is better in punt return success rate. So in a boring running and punting slugfest, Michigan should have the advantage.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^
I'm a little surprised they were that down in a game where they outscored a competent B1G opponent by 320 yards. First pick six was bad, second one bounced off a receiver's hands.
November 13th, 2017 at 11:59 PM ^
Wisconsin fans are never happy unless they are miserable.
No, wait . . . that's us.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:24 PM ^
Go for it offensively and just beat the Badgers! Yeah, I know Peters is pretty raw, but I say we need to get an early lead against them to force them out of their comfort zone. Pull out the stops and run stuff they simply haven't seen or prepared for, kind of like Iowa did against Ohio State at Kinnick. I don't care about saving our new/ trick plays for Ohio State, a win against Wisconsin would instantly restore our credibility.
November 14th, 2017 at 12:39 AM ^
Would it? It would only do that if Wisconsin turned around and beat Ohio State (or PSU) in the conference championship game.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:31 PM ^
There will be rain the Friday before.
The kind of football game that freezes your nose, ears, fingers and toes.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:46 PM ^
36 degrees isn't shit when you are wearing thermal layers running around. Weather will not be a factor for either team.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^
but I saw that wind gusts could possibly be in the 50s-60s on Saturday. At least in MI they are forecasted.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:18 PM ^
36 degrees at stadium temp plus 15 mph winds with 20+ mph GUSTS means 24 degrees with windchill, maybe lower. That's way below freezing.
That's definitely going to affect the football itself as well as player hands (QB, RB, WR, TE, DBs, OC, etc.)
Handwarmers and stickum.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:32 PM ^
November 14th, 2017 at 12:36 AM ^
I want to beat OSU, and Wisconsin to beat them again if they make it to the conference championship ahd playoff. I want to see a four loss Ohio State team.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:34 PM ^
It's going to be an ugly slog, but Wisconsin isn't like PSU. Their offense isn't going to be able to run away and hide this game from Michigan, and so more than likely it'll be a game in the 4th quarter. Doesn't mean Michigan wins, but it's silly for odds makers to install Wisconsin +10 when the past couple of weekends have shown college football is anything but predictable for prohibitive favorites.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:35 PM ^
Stinks Michigan is going into this game with a lot of key injuries, but that's part of the game, as Wisconsin has their own share of injuries as well. Hopefully a lot of the guys will be back on Saturday.
I'm hopeful that Gary and Higdon will play and they should be good to go (sounds like they could've come back but were held out as a precaution), but I really hope Onwenu is back. I'm glad Ruiz has gotten the playing time in his absence, but the dropoff between the two is very apparent, and Wisconsin's defense is pretty darn good. Having Hill back against a very turnover-prone Hornibrook would be a huge boost.
Need to keep Peters upright for as long as possible in this game, give him as much time as he can get to find Gentry and McKeon. Wisconsin is going to bring the house on Peters over and over until he proves he can throw the ball against them.
November 14th, 2017 at 12:33 AM ^
If resting Gary and Higdon and Owenu and Long and Hill means they'll be in better shape for tOSU. I am all for restng them. I care about the game this week a lot, but for the long term, next week's game means much more.
November 14th, 2017 at 12:32 AM ^
Not sure about this. From the little I have seen of Wisconsin, their DL seemed like they were pretty good. I imagine they will see if their front can't beat Michigan's OL straight up, mixing in some stunts, and see how patient Peters is. If that doesn't work, they'll bring heat if they need it.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:49 PM ^
Wisconsin has played a few games where they got down early but inevtiably the Wisconsin machine just pounded the opponent into submission.
Michigan has shown they may give up a score or two until Don Brown figures out what they are doing new and then shuts them down.
Typically that would be a bad script for Michigan on the road. That said, If Michigan can get a couple early scores and limits Wisconsin's ability to pull within even in the first half (i.e. go into half up 10+) , I think Michigan has a good chance to pull this one out.
I don't think Wisconsin has really been punched in the face yet this season and had to respond. I think Michigan is the type of team that can punch you in the face and still be there in the fourth quarter.
November 13th, 2017 at 6:15 PM ^
Well, Indiana jumped out 10 nothing on us and Iowa jumped out 7-0 two minutes in. I would consider both of those starts a shot to the nose requiring a response. Utah St also lead 10-0 after one, but obviously Michigan they are not.
November 13th, 2017 at 2:52 PM ^
Hoping to see some exotic zone blitzes from Brown to take advantage of the interception-prone Hornibrook.
Taylor isn't as explosive of a RB as Barkley and I think our front seven will be able to hold him to under 70 yards. Sell out on early downs and make Wisconsin put the ball in the air. I feel like if Michigan can score 20 points they will win the game.
I think Nordin's issues the last few games get sorted out and he will have the chance to prove himself big time this weekend. In a plodding game where field position is at a premium, this game could easily come down to special teams.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:39 PM ^
Ugh. He needed Jim to chew his ass. I hope I am wrong and Jim’s anger lights a fire under Nordin.
November 13th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^
So... I saw the first line quickly without paying close attention and thought it said "erotic zone blitzes from Don Brown." The mental images that came to mind were... disturbing.
November 14th, 2017 at 12:25 AM ^
It was less the explosiveness that Barkley (and McSorely) hurt Michigan's defense on the ground- it was the overpursuit- not having anyone on the backside when they cut back. Hopefully Brown gets that problem fixed.
I agree about concern for Nordin- we got wowed by the two long field goals against Florida and took for granted we had a great, reliable kicker, but he's been somewhat erratic since.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:04 PM ^
Wisconsin has the No. 1 ranked rushing defense in the country.
They have given up only 815 yards rushing over 10 games, and have only allowed 3 rushing TDs all season.
Wisconsin's rushing offense is ranked 18th, just behind Ohio State's 17th.
This the best team across the board Michigan has yet faced this season. Better than PSU and far better than MSU.
Meanwhile, Michigan's passing offense is 111th in the nation. This is comparable to effectively sending Butch Jones' Tennessee passing offense into Madison this week. It would be a disaster. And Tennesse has a promising freshman QB too.
Wisconsin can pretty safely load the box with 8 or 9 and just tee off on the Michigan running backs and QB.
Wisconsin has decisively won every game this year except the Purdue game. Purdue lost that game in a heavy rain storm because of a costly turnover (Sindelar INT at UW 7 yard line with 10 minutes to play in game down 9-17) and going 3 for 11 on 3rd down compared to Wisconsin's 9 of 14 on 3rd down. Purdue had 66 yards rushing and the Badgers held the ball for 40 minutes. Hornibrook was rickety and inconsistent. His 2 INTs and a fumble gave Purdue momentum and points, but it still wasn't enough.
Wisconsin's defense is what wins them football games these days, in spite of Paul Chryst's drunken stupor.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:05 PM ^
They only beat conference-worst Illinois by 14. They have the fancy-stats on defense, but they are still relatively unknown. Hornibrook is an interception machine so anything can happen.
November 13th, 2017 at 8:38 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 2:59 PM ^
I've said it before and I'll say it again, Wisconsin's student section sucks. It's about 1/3rd full to start a game, gets to about 3/4ths full by the time it's time to "Jump Around", then it's back to <1/3rd full about 5 minutes into the 4th quarter. They get too much love from the TV crews.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:08 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 3:11 PM ^
Usually, but this might be a bit different as this is the Gameday game, they are in the playoff hunt, and this is their biggest home game of the season by far.
November 13th, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^
Last week was a traditional rival, a 2:30 start, we were undefeated, and we were in the playoff hunt. Trust me, it'll be glaringly empty.
Michigan is a draw this weekend, but not enough to get the student section packed for kickoff.
November 13th, 2017 at 8:36 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 6:21 PM ^
I said it in another thread, but this is actually pretty accurate. Our students have been drinking too much of their own kool aid. A popular idea being thrown around by a lot of badger fans is overselling the student section by a couple thousand tickets. Those gameday vouchers get exchanged for tickets when you enter the stadium and when the tickets are gone they're gone. If you show up late, sorry. You can turn your voucher back in for a refund. That gets students in the place and likely makes the AD additional money for vouchers not turned back in for a refund.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^
The key to this game will be to score more points than they do by the end of the 4th quarter.
November 13th, 2017 at 3:44 PM ^
The defense got in Hornibrook's face early and often. He got rocked several times. May have been hurt. I would expect more of the same this year. Given Hornibrook isn't much of a threat to run, Devin Bush should be a major factor keeping their RBs in check. Deep pass to Darboh was the difference in the game in 2016. Hope Harbaugh has some magic for Peters dialed up for Sat. Wisconsin has a habit of turning it over and playing down to their competition (see Illinois game), so would be nice if that continued on Sat., too.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:32 PM ^
Yup, our offense is not going to be able to consistently drive the ball on their defense. We'll need a few deep shots like last year to keep ourselves in it. Unfortunately, I have little confidence in our quarterbacks to throw catchable balls and our receivers to pull down jump balls. If Tarik Black could make a miraculous recovery, now would be the time for it.
November 13th, 2017 at 4:16 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 6:18 PM ^
No offense, but while Michigan is always a game we look forward to, it is a distant 3rd behind the upcoming B1G championship and hopefully a CFP game (REALLY distant).
November 13th, 2017 at 11:00 PM ^
zero chance the B1G championship no matter who you face from the East.
The west is terrible, uncompetitive and extremely weak. Data tells the story.
November 13th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 4:32 PM ^
November 13th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
It's really hard for me to be optimistic about this game. Every stat and optic suggests Whisky will over power us and will us into submission by mid-way through the second half. For all the love PSU has received from the media, I personally think Whisky is a better all-around team.
Fortunately, their QB has shown he is prone to mistakes and turnovers. if we can take advantage of some of those, then maybe we have a shot. But, I fear our offense won't be able to make their D honest, and we'll suffer from many three-and-outs, leaving our defnese on the field way too long.
Also - woth mentioning - this is going to be a major "statement game" for Whisky. Of all the P5 schools, they may be - or at least feel - the most "disrespected" in the eyes of the playoff cmte. They're undefeated and nobody has them sniffing the playoffs right now because of their horrible schedule. A dominating win over UM would - at minimum - go a long way to shape a more positive narative for their playoff changes.
November 14th, 2017 at 2:38 AM ^
"Wisconsin would really like for it to happen" is not particularly good reasoning for why it would.
This would be a great statement game for Michigan. They really feel disrespected to have thus far been left out of the CFP top 25. A dominating win for them would position them for a top ten finish after doing the same to OSU.
See how that works?
And isn't "optics" just a word for the "eye test"? I'm sorry, but what's their best win? Over an Iowa team that had just blown their wad against OSU? Optics can be pretty deceiving.
So, here's a plausible argument for expecting exactly the opposite of what you too easily conceded as inevitable:
Now that we have figured out our blocking, we will be able to run on them. Enough to do some damage and more than enough to keep them honest on the play action pass. And Peters will hit at least a few of them.
With their OL worn down, it could well end up being Michigan in a blowout.
Realism is realism. But I don't find optimism all that difficult. Not for the last 2 years, 10 months, and 15 days.
November 13th, 2017 at 6:25 PM ^
I think with McCray thumping people along with the rest of the front 7, we can reasonably contain their running attack. Hornibrook has shown himself to be an absolute INT machine this year. That's the path to victory, because no chance is the offense going to win it outright
Frankly, this might turn into a QB derp fest with neither team being able to run the ball. Team with the fewest thrown INTs wins. Wouldn't surprise me to see both teams throw 3
November 13th, 2017 at 9:36 PM ^
Three things:
1. This will be the best team Wisconsin has played so far this year
2. Michigan's D feasts on non-athletic QB's. Look for 8 in box to stop run and put our corners on an island.
3. Best defense wins.
November 13th, 2017 at 10:55 PM ^
rethinking my prediction of the final score downward...
Mich...15 (we lay a safety on them at some point in the game)
Badgers...10
November 14th, 2017 at 12:04 AM ^
This game will look a lot like last year, a defensive struggle.
Speight was 1-11 on third downs, yet we still won. He did hit the long TD bomb at the end of the game to win it.
Peters will have to do something similar. Neither team is going to be able to just piece a lot of 15-play TD drives together to win.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:20 AM ^
What concerns me is that Michigan isn't as good as it was last year, and Wisconsin seems better than it was last year. I still think it's a winnable game for Michigan, but more likely that Wisconsin is able to prevail.
November 14th, 2017 at 8:39 AM ^
Have to agree unfortunately.
2017 Wisconsin beats 2016 Wisconsin . . . but 2016 Michgian beats 2017 Michigan.
Not gonna be much margin of error to work with for us.