Big Ten Portal Departures to Date
As I was checking in our newest portal addition of former Husker Ernest Haussmann I noticed the 247 site had a breakdown of each conference and school with the associated departure listing. As of today the Portal has officially been open 10 days and below is the most up-to-date listing of the conference and the numbers of current departures.
BIG WEST - BIG EAST
Illinois - 3 OSU - 3
Purdue - 4 Michigan - 5
Northwestern - 6 Penn State - 5
Minnesota - 7 Rutgers - 8
Wisconsin - 9 Mich State - 8
Iowa - 10 Indiana - 14
Nebraska - 10 Maryland - 15
Going through the list I was wondering if there was any rhythm or reason to the numbers of departures for each school. The obvious factors such as personal success (playing time), lack of team success, and coaching changes all exist but a few of these really stuck out, specifically Iowa and Maryland.
To bring in a Michigan program and recruiting perspective, especially looking at the lower ranked '23 class, it would seem to be that going forward the priority and key to sustained success will be program continuity and culture more that accumulation of talent ($TAMU$). Hopefully we get our NIL affairs in order soon, but Harbaugh seems fine with getting "football" guys and creating a culture where they want to be here. Clearly these are all needed components that drive success, but just interesting to see the numbers from a conference perspective.
Thoughts???
https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/TransferPortalTop/
December 15th, 2022 at 2:16 PM ^
I don't think you can call Texas A&M's recruiting tactics a failure until we see how it plays out over 4 or 5 years. Even with the best freshmen class in recruiting history, you can't expect freshmen to change a team in year 1.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Well any strategy that takes 5 years to come to fruition in the current climate will lead to everyone involved being fired…
December 15th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
Not necessarily when the entirety of the contract is guaranteed.
December 15th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
Will the Texas A&M players in the portal have to give back their signing bonus? Just asking for Nick Saban.
December 15th, 2022 at 5:31 PM ^
Mel Tucker says "want to bet?"
December 15th, 2022 at 2:27 PM ^
I agree with you and I keep saying this to people. Stop saying tA&M is a failure, we will not know until 3/4 years after their historic recruiting class.
December 15th, 2022 at 6:26 PM ^
Texas A and M’s classes have been top ten in ‘19, ‘20, ‘21, ‘22. They should be winning more games.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
Will Johnson disagrees!
December 15th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
With that talent on the roster A&M should have won at least 7 or 8 games. Saying it will take 4 years is a cop out. I get not being able to beat out top teams but they did not play well even in games where their sheer skill should have won out.
December 15th, 2022 at 3:30 PM ^
Life, are you implying that A&M's loss to Auburn was not a "good loss"? How about their losses to ... Alabama, Appalachian State, Florida, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, and South Carolina?
I thought that every SEC loss was a "good loss", because - well, you know - "It just means more."
December 15th, 2022 at 5:35 PM ^
All it takes is one of those recruiting classes to contain a Caleb Williams, Trevor Lawrence, Deshaun Watson type of player and everything changes. I mean, look at Clemson with and without those QBs. And when you're bringing in classes that are the best anyone has ever seen, you have better chances of getting one of those guys.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
I know Keon Coleman is going to get some run on the bball team so maybe that alters his mindset but I don't understand why he isn't headed to a team in SEC country (where he is from). I am sure he would do well on a functional team with a non-horse shit coach...
December 15th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^
I think an non-spoken part of these numbers right now for OSU and us having very low transfer numbers so far is that we're still in playoff contention, so our seasons still have some real stakes to them. This transfer portal declaration window doesn't close until after the after the championship game, so if there are guys right now planning to transfer but still playing a key role on the team (like say special teams), they may be waiting for afterwards. Might be better to revisit these numbers after the declaration window closes.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:32 PM ^
True. Michigan’s numbers will almost certainly rise after the season ends. Transfers in may also result in more transfers out.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:23 PM ^
Maryland & Indiana had the most number of transferring players (among B1G teams) last year too. I'm not sure what the reason is, but whatever the reason it seems a bit more endemic there.
Iowa had the fewest number of transferring players last year. They may be more of a blip. Next lowest were Northwestern, PSU, Michigan and Illinois - all on the lower end this year too.
Not a ton of data points admittedly - but does seem to be some per-program year-to-year correlation.
Source for my 2021 numbers: https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/2022-college-football-Big-Ten-tra…
December 15th, 2022 at 6:59 PM ^
I read "Next lowest" as "Next Iowa-est" and it made me chuckle.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:24 PM ^
McNamara, All, Hansen, Rooks… who’s our 5th transfer out?
December 15th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
Simeon Smith, I believe a walk-on?
December 15th, 2022 at 2:40 PM ^
That’s a weird one on there. Not sure why it’s there as it looks like he hasn’t been on the roster since 2016.
December 15th, 2022 at 3:28 PM ^
Blast from the very distant past!
I remember thinking he was one of the more interesting walk-ons way back in 2016.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
for sparty, does that '8' represent the brave tunnel attackers?
or maybe that '8' is for 'those who are out on bail will be champions'?
December 15th, 2022 at 2:44 PM ^
It's their average ACT score.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:28 PM ^
I don't think 5 is the correct number of outgoing transfers from Michigan. 247 does indeed show 5, but one of them, which I noticed a few days ago is some guy named Simeon Smith, a zero-star prospect in the class of 2016. It makes me think it's similar to a wikipedia false/joking entry.
Simeon did in fact have a roster spot in 2016, but not in subsequent years.
Just weird.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:35 PM ^
Listening to Dusty and Danny on ESPNU the other day, they were talking about how a pure discussion of portal numbers is deceiving for that very reason. A lot of walk-ons end up putting their name in the portal distorting the numbers even though they never had an on-field impact in the past season and were likely told by coaches that wouldn't change next season either. Good for any of those wak-ons who can get into a better position to be a contributor to new teams!
December 15th, 2022 at 7:43 PM ^
I prefer wak-offs to wak-ons any day of the week, and twice on Sundays.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:29 PM ^
it appears that bad teams and coaching changes have the most impact on the portal. small sample size though.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:31 PM ^
This is a nice tool.
My prediction is that it will normalize over time. There's a fair number of players for whom the "this isn't going to happen, let's look at your transfer options" conversation will happen every year.
I'd be interested in breaking it down by class. Just guessing, but the transfer portal, NIL$, value of a degree, etc. will lead to a situation in which a college football player has to decide "am I a pro prospect or not" in a VERY frank way, and if the answer is "yes", then playing time at all costs becomes the goal.
The question is WHEN does that decision happen? Do we see a shit ton of sophomore transfers? Or do a bunch of 5th year seniors transfer in a last gasp at playing time? Or both?
The one thing that I'm sure of: behavioral economics students are SALIVATING at a chance to study this data.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
I'd add in that we also need a breakdown by scholarship status as well. "On scholarship" versus "PWO" versus "walk-on".
December 15th, 2022 at 3:14 PM ^
A little apples and oranges there though. Isaiah Gash is a walk on at Michigan. He could transfer, and get a scholly at EMU. If he transfers again, now he's a scholarship transfer.
December 15th, 2022 at 4:22 PM ^
Fair point, but if the portal is predicated on their current status, it has more value in showing what any given school is losing which is probably the more important evaluation of the current state of the student athletes in the portal. Getting a scholarship at EMU would be a future state after he leaves portal--tracking both current state and post-portal state would be interesting to see if these student athletes were able to earn themselves a scholarship (ie. walk-on -> scholly) or hurt themselves (scholly -> no scholly and either giving up footbal or having to just walk on somewhere).
December 15th, 2022 at 2:36 PM ^
One would have to assume that Michigan and OSU will have more departures after the conclusion of the Playoff.
December 15th, 2022 at 2:42 PM ^
We have 81 scholarship players eligible to return next year and will be bringing in over 25 with recruits and transfers. So we are obviously going to have a lot more hit the portal after the playoffs.
December 15th, 2022 at 3:33 PM ^
TK - not questioning your numbers, but - there's a lingering impact of CV. So, I don't know how that impacts scholarship limits and the numbers you shared.
December 15th, 2022 at 3:51 PM ^
One of the recent articles on the front page said don’t pay attention to roster numbers. Michigan apparently had 88 or 89 scholarship players this year. I guess until this covid free year completely cycles out, teams will have more players on the roster.
December 15th, 2022 at 4:11 PM ^
Scholarship numbers are essentially meaningless due to NIL, right?
Like, let's say a star the size of Donovan Edwards gets called into a room and told "we're pulling your scholarship for a dirt-poor DL prospect we think will be very good for us...but don't worry, your NIL deal just went up a ridiculous amount."
December 15th, 2022 at 3:49 PM ^
Wisconsin, Nebraska and Purdue all had a coaching change. The one I don’t get is Maryland. They are leading the conference at this point in departures and have been a pretty decent team. Interesting that with all the culture talk that Iowa is doubling Michigan up at this point.
December 15th, 2022 at 5:33 PM ^
Even going back to his New Mexico disaster, Locksley has always struck me as a bit of a prickly and not particularly competent character. Tom Allen the same - so I'm not particularly surprised at Maryland & Iowa leading this list 2 years in a row.
On a tangent, yes, Maryland has been "decent." Locksley has still also not yet beat a single B1G team that finished the regular season with even a .500 record!
I'm just not high on him at all. Maryland blew the Purdue game this year and then pulled consecutive no-shows at both Wisconsin and PSU - which, one thing to lose big at PSU, but the Badgers weren't even any good this year.
December 15th, 2022 at 5:28 PM ^
Here's a link as of 12/14 for all opt outs and portal players all.
December 15th, 2022 at 6:43 PM ^
Thanks, I read an article on ESPN that 47% of the players in the portal never sign with a power 5 school and go to a lower division school or just quit football
December 15th, 2022 at 8:35 PM ^
I can see Michigan losing 5-6 more, it's just interesting that because Michigan has a legit shot at a national championship and the culture is strong...I think there are guys who are going to play this thing out with their brothers and figure the rest out later. And good for them, the position Michigan is in is rare. I'd be going in every day with one focus, national championship.
I truly believe Michigan can do it.
1. Georgia is Georgia but that defense last year was all-time great.
2. Georgia's biggest freak is a DT, he's incredible (hope the Lions draft him). But we got Olu this year.
3. JJ is better than Cade, we know this. But I don't think he's soooo much better when you consider last year for Cade (he was terrible this year)...but that's not the point I want to make.
JJ's legs, running the ball, but also extending plays. Against a fast defense that flies around...that's huge. He made two plays against Purdue that I thought "that's the difference." 1st quarter rolling left and finds Bell...and TD rolling right to Schoon. Cade can't make those plays.
JJ and Olu are a huge difference. Can't wait to see these boys compete!
December 16th, 2022 at 7:27 AM ^
I'm surprised Maryland has that many. I thought they had a respectful season.
December 16th, 2022 at 7:42 AM ^
Yes, they did seem quite polite, respectably so.