Betting Michigan-Rutgers and other CFB Week 6 games

Submitted by bballislife22 on

Michigan is currently a -27.5 or -28 point favorite (depending on your sportsbook) and the over/under is at 53. What would you bet on those lines?

I feel good about taking Michigan against the spread, especially after just reading Ace's Fee-Fi-Fo Film and knowing how Harbaugh is and the whole Rutgers satelite camp thing this summer. But do you take the over or under? I'm thinking the under, but it's tricky:

Assuming you take Michigan against the spread:

If we hold Rutgers to 0 points, then we have to score between 29 and 52 points to hit the under and get both bets right in a parlay. 29-52 seems pretty reasonable for our offensive output. However, if we give up even just 7 points, then our offensive output window shrinks to 36-45 to still hit the under. Still reasonable, but a fairly small window. The more points we give up, the smaller the window gets.

If you were trying to parlay both, would you take Michigan or Rutgers against the spread, and would you take the over or the under?

 

Here's the rest of the lines for this weekend's slate:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/lines

Do you have any great picks? I like the under of 49.5 in the MSU-BYU game. 

 

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RED DAWN

October 5th, 2016 at 9:12 PM ^

You see, sharp players have known for years that certain College football parlays were advantageous. By playing these parlays religiously week in and week out, the sharp player could gain a long tern edge over the house.

Four or Five years ago, the sharpest books out there caught on that something was up. But even they weren't sure exactly what the parameters were for these parlays. They knew it had something to do with high point spread games, but were obviously clueless as to exactly which ones. So some books simply took all high spread games off the board for parlays. 

One by one over the last several four or 5 years the books gradually stopped taking these wagers all together. Apparently there were one or two books that still took these parlays heading into this season but as far as we know, there are none left.

So, the sharp player looking for this edge is now forced to try and find local bookmakers who aren't in the loop if they still want to exploit this edge.

Oh, the parameters of this parlay you ask?

1) Take any game in which the spread is 40% or more of the total on the game. (ie -20 with a total of 50 qualifies - -25 with a total of 65 does NOT)

 

2) Make two parlays on the same game - Dog and Under, and Fav and Over

 

3) Collect your winnings

 

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Durham Blue

October 5th, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

I like Michigan -27 or -28.  I like Michigan -37.  So yeah, I am thinking this will be an easy cover for Michigan.  And to put my money where my mouth is I already put about half my bankroll on -27.  Not sure why the line isn't higher.  Perhaps money is flowing the other way due to it being a night game, potential bad weather, Ash-Harbaugh rivalry and amped up crowd.  Who knows?

I have no idea about the over/under in this game so I am staying away from it.  My initial instinct was 49-0.  But there is no way I am taking the under because I want us to win bigger than that.  It all depends on when Harbaugh takes his foot off the gas and whether or not Rutgers gets a cheap score or two. If you want you can do a 7 point teaser of Michigan and the over.  This will give you Michigan minus about 20.5 and over 46.  That's probably the safest way to bet the over/under for this game.  Or, just put a really small bet on the over/under.  Don't go big.

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Durham Blue

October 5th, 2016 at 8:19 PM ^

I think a total wash out would certainly lower the total score but that would only make Rutgers struggle even more against our D.  In the case of heavy rain I expect a few defensive scores for Michigan and potentially one for Rutgers.  But we'll keep it on the ground and grind out a 35-3 or 42-7 victory.  So rain or no rain I still expect Michigan to cover a 28 point spread.

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rice4114

October 5th, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^

...but dont play the over/under. You dont want a sure winner and then chase the under or over all game. Michigan wins by 35 if they dont throw a pass the second half.

 

Here is a list of games I see off by 9pts or more. Forewarning I usually at .500 for a week or just crush it. If its the .500 week stick around. Take these even if you have to give up a point or two.

 

Georgia Southern -7

Houston Navy over 51

LSU Florida over 41

Purdont Illini under 54

Southern Miss  -16.5 and the over 56.5

Auburn Miss St over 54.5

Western Mich -19.5

Michigan -27.5

Washington Oregon over 69.5

FIU Utep under 48

Cal -13.5

SDSU -14.5 and the over 54.5

 

My computer calls for Toledo and Air Force but I think EMU and Wyoming have some good coaching now so Im overriding with a human factor.

 

Good luck and Go Blue!

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rice4114

October 5th, 2016 at 7:00 PM ^

Never go more than 5% of your bankroll cuz anything can happen but this looks really good. Georgia Southern is statiscaly better at over 90% of head to head stats. Ark state best game so far was a loss to Utah St. Last game they were 16 pt favorites and lost straight up to Central Arkansas??? Yikes.

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Durham Blue

October 5th, 2016 at 8:24 PM ^

I think so.  Then again, I am not a millionaire from my sports betting so take everything I say with a grain of salt.  My general feeling is that Michigan will cover with or without rain.  Add rain into the mix and you'll see a bad Rutgers offense struggle even more against our good defense.  The only question is will Michigan hold onto the ball and sustain drives with a wet ball and field.  I think they will but the overall score will be lower than anticipated.  With rain I think it will be 35-3.  With trace amounts of rain it will be more like 49-0 or 49-3 or 52-7.

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HireWayne

October 5th, 2016 at 8:15 PM ^

BYU at MSU OVER 50

Minnesota +2 against Iowa

Arkansas +14 against Bama

Leaning Texas A&M -7 over Tenn, BYU +6 over MSU.

 

Saturday can't get here fast enough.

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IBleedMaizeNBlue

October 6th, 2016 at 6:06 AM ^

Michigan -28 is absolutely free money. Rutgers didn't score a single point against OSU's defense, which is not nearly as good as ours (now #1 in the nation per the S+P). They're missing their impact WR, safety and LT. We've scored at least 40 in every game save the one against one of the best defenses in the country.

I wouldn't touch the over/under since this offense is capable of scoring 61 as we saw earlier this year. I would expect the score to be somewhere in the 40's or 50's to 0-7.



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goblueram

October 6th, 2016 at 1:37 PM ^

Oklahoma -11 over Texas
Pittsburgh -6.5 over Georgia Tech
Navy +17.5 vs. Houston
Duke -4.5 over Army
North Carolina -3 over Virginia Tech
Florida State +3 vs. Miami

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